Election 2020 live coverage of the U.S. Presidential Election between Republican Donald J. Trump and Democrat Joseph R. Biden, plus the U.S. Senate and U.S. House. Coverage on People’s Pundit Daily (PPD) is in partnership with DecisionUSA 2020.
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Washington, D.C. (PPD) — The U.S. Labor Department (DOL) reported initial jobless claims fell more than expected by 40,000 to a seasonally-adjusted 751,000 for the week ending October 24. The previous week was revised up only slightly 4,000 from 787,000 to 791,000.
Forecasts ranged from a low of 750,000 to a high of 880,000. The consensus forecast was 758,000. The 4-week moving average was 787,750, a decrease of 24,500 from the previous week, which was also revised up only slightly by 1,000 from 811,250 to 812,250.
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate crated down to 5.3% for the week ending October 17, a decline of 0.5 from the previous week, which was revised up a tick 0.1 to 5.8. Post-Covid-19 shutdown, the insured unemployment rate first fell to single digits during the week ending August 15 at 9.9%.
Under the Trump Administration, this rate had fallen to an all-time low 1.1% and remained at 1.2% as recently as March 14. But that was before coronavirus (COVID-19) mitigation efforts.
The insured unemployment rate hit the first high of the current crisis at 8.2% for the week ending April 4. The all-time high prior to that was 7.0%, recorded in May of 1975. On April 11, it rose to 11.0% and 12.4% on April 25.
Worth noting, the labor market indicators are improving again despite the most strictest lockdown states — which consequently saw the highest number of infections — disproportionately hurting the labor market and overall economy.
The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending October 10 were in Hawaii (12.6), California (10.5), Nevada (10.0), Georgia (8.3), District of Columbia (7.9), Louisiana (7.8), Puerto Rico (7.4), Massachusetts (7.1), New Mexico (7.1), and Illinois (6.8).
Initial jobless claims fell more than expected
New York, N.Y. (PPD) — The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported the “advance” estimate for third quarter (Q3) gross domestic product (GDP) soared 33.1% on an annualized basis, a historic rebound that beat forecasts. Due to mitigation efforts to slow the spread of coronavirus (COVID-19), real GDP fell -32.4% in Q2 2020.
Forecasts ranged from a low of 20.0% to a high of 36.0%. The consensus forecast was 30.9%.
“The increase in third quarter GDP reflected continued efforts to reopen businesses and resume activities that were postponed or restricted due to COVID-19,” the BEA stated. “The full economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic cannot be quantified in the GDP estimate for the third quarter of 2020 because the impacts are generally embedded in source data and cannot be separately identified.”
In large part, personal consumption expenditures (PCE) drove the increase, skyrocketing by a historic 40.7% in Q2 after falling -33.2% in the prior quarter. Forecasts for PCE ranged from a low of 30.3% to a high of 39.2%. The consensus forecast was 38.9%.
Private inventory investment, exports, nonresidential fixed investment, and residential fixed investment also helped to partly offset declines in federal government spending — reflecting fewer fees paid to administer the Paycheck Protection Program loans — and state and local government spending.
Personal saving came in at $2.78 trillion in Q3, down from an inflated $4.71 trillion in Q2. The personal saving rate — personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income — fell to 15.8% in the Q3, down from 25.7% in Q2.
The "advance" estimate for third quarter (Q3)
New York, N.Y. (PPD) — Pfizer, Inc. (PFE) plans to submit an application to the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) requesting Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) for its coronavirus vaccine on November 20. People’s Pundit Daily (PPD) spoke exclusively with sources at the company with knowledge of the nation’s coronavirus vaccine development efforts, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak on the record.
Section 564 of the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act (FD&C Act) grants FDA Commissioner Stephen Hahn the authority to facilitate the availability and uses of medical countermeasures, or MCMs, needed during public health emergencies. EUA authority allows FDA to approve MCMs to treat conditions associated with chemical, biological, radiological, or nuclear (CBRN) threats, or emerging infectious diseases.
The November 20 date is a fluid target, but Pfizer also intends to start pediatric and maternal protocols by January, according to one source directly involved with the effort. However, sources tell PPD the damage done by those politicizing vaccine development is on par with the anti-vaccination lobby.
Former Vice President Joe Biden has amassed a long history of casting doubt on the coronavirus vaccine. Mr. Biden, the 2020 Democratic presidential nominee, questioned whether the vaccine will be “real” and whether it would be distributed with “any degree of equity and realization”.
Kamala Harris, his vice presidential running mate, said she may not take a coronavirus vaccine developed under the Trump Administration.
Developers say such remarks are irresponsible, undermine their work and what will inevitably be a massive effort to distribute the vaccine to an already vaccine-skeptical public.
Over the summer, the Trump Administration launched Operation Warp Speed aimed at delivering 300 million doses of a safe, effective, and authorized vaccine for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) by the end of the year. Efforts resulting from Operation Warp Speed “have been working with remarkable efficiency,” according to The New York Times.
While three vaccine candidates showed promise during trials — Pfizer, AstraZeneca (AZN) and Moderna (MRNA) — Pfizer has the furthest global reach. In July, the Trump Administration struck a historic deal with the company to secure 100 million vaccine doses — with the potential for nearly half a billion more to follow — as soon as it is FDA approved and manufactured.
Per the agreement, Pfizer will begin delivering the doses to the American people at no cost. The Trump Administration simply directs the company to the locations for distribution.
“I would not hesitate for a moment to take the vaccine myself and recommend it to my family,” Dr. Anthony Fauci, a member of the White House Coronavirus Task Force and head of the National Institute of Health (NIH), said in response to Mr. Biden’s and Ms. Harris’ remarks casting doubt on the safety of the vaccine. NIH colleague Dr. Francis Collins added, “The safety and the effectiveness will be not compromised.”
Sources at Pfizer said the application submitted to the FDA will naturally include safety and efficacy data, and noted the company previously submitted six amendments with supporting data. Adverse event monitoring for the vaccine candidates developed by Pfizer is reportedly much lower juxtaposed to other candidates.
“We will do our job to assess the safety and the efficacy of a vaccine candidate,” Commissioner Hahn said in a previous statement addressing the process for reviewing applications. “Science and data are really going to guide this decision, and nothing else.”
Pfizer, Inc. (PFE) plans to submit an
Dallas, Tx. (PPD) — The Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey again beat expectations in October, showing factory activity surpassing the highest levels in two years.
The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, increased another 3.2 points to 25.5, its highest reading since August 2018. The general business activity index surpassed historical average, rising from 13.6 to 19.8, a two-year high.
Nearly every component in the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey indicates stronger growth and renewed optimism for the months ahead, barring no change to public policy.
The new orders index rose 5 points to 19.9 and the growth rate of orders index ticked up to 14.3. The capacity utilization index increased from 17.5 to 23.0, while the shipments index was relatively stable at 21.9.
The company outlook index moved up three points to 17.8, also a two-year high. Uncertainty regarding companies’ outlooks continued to rise, with the index moving up four points to 11.0.
The employment index fell from 14.5 to 8.7, but remained positive and indicates less-robust hiring. Twenty percent (20%) of manufacturing firms reported net hiring, while only 11% noted net layoffs. The hours worked index also fell but remained positive from 6.9 to 3.7.
Prices and wages were solid and continued to rise in October. The raw materials prices index ticked up another 3 points to 29.4, a reading well above the series average. The finished goods prices and wages and benefits indexes rose to 6.8 and 16.5, respectively.
Future activity expectations remained positive in October. The future production index held steady at 47.2, while the future general business activity index was unchanged at 28.4. the remaining measures of future manufacturing activity were mixed, but all remained solidly in positive territory.
The Dallas Fed conducts the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey monthly to obtain a timely assessment of the state’s factory activity. Data for the August survey were collected October 13–21, and included responses from 110 Texas manufacturing firms.
Dallas, Tx. (PPD) — The Texas Manufacturing
Washington, D.C. (PPD) — The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) jointly reported the new residential sales statistics for August 2020. New home sales of single-family houses backed off 3.5% (±19.9%) to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 959,000 in September, a still solid number slightly below the forecast.
In August, soared 4.8% (±10.5%) to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,011,000 in August, the highest level since September 2006. While revised down for August, new home sales are now up 32.1% (±28.8%) from the September 2019 estimate of 726,000.
The median sales price of new houses sold in September 2020 came in at $326,800. The average sales price was $405,400. The seasonally-adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of September was 284,000. This represents a supply of 3.6 months at the current sales rate.
As People’s Pundit Daily (PPD) recently reported, indicators widely show the U.S. housing market is “booming”, surpassing pre-pandemic levels and expectations. Experts now foresee housing leading the economic recovery and have raised growth forecasts for the sector.
The NAHB Housing Market Index (HMI) reported builder confidence unexpectedly rose another 2 points to 85 in October, smashing the all-time high and beating the consensus forecast.
New residential construction statistics for housing starts and building permits again beat forecasts in September, defying the lingering effects due to coronavirus (COVID-19).
Building permits rose 5.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,553,000 and are 8.1% higher year-over-year. Housing starts rose 1.9% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,415,000, and are now 11.1% year-over-year.
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported pending home sales hit an all-time high in August, surging nearly three times the consensus forecast by 8.8%. That marked the fourth straight month of solid gains.
New home sales backed off 3.5% (±19.9%)
Washington, D.C. (PPD) — The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported existing home sales soared again in September, easily beating the forecast and gaining for the fourth straight month. While all four major regions posted month-over-month and year-over-year gains, the Northeast saw the highest climb in both.
Total existing-home sales — completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops — increased 9.4% to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 6.54 million. That surpasses the surge in August, when sales hit the highest level since December 2006, and a record 24.7% gain in July.
Forecasts ranged from a low of 5.8 million to a high of 6.4 million. The consensus forecast was 6.2 million. Year-over-year, sales are up 20.9% from a year ago (5.41 million in September 2019).
“Home sales traditionally taper off toward the end of the year, but in September they surged beyond what we normally see during this season,” Lawrence Yun, chief economist at NAR said. “I would attribute this jump to record-low interest rates and an abundance of buyers in the marketplace, including buyers of vacation homes given the greater flexibility to work from home.”
The median existing-home price for all housing types came in at $311,800, up 14.8% from September 2019 ($271,500), and prices rose in every region. The national price increase in September marks 103 straight months of year-over-year gains.
Total housing inventory totaled 1.47 million units, down 1.3% from August and down 19.2% from one year ago (1.82 million). Unsold inventory sits at a 2.7-month supply at the current sales pace, down from 3.0 months in August and from the 4.0-month supply in September 2019.
“There is no shortage of hopeful, potential buyers, but inventory is historically low,” Yun said. “To their credit, we have seen some homebuilders move to ramp up supply, but a need for even more production still exists.”
Home sales have grown in every region for four straight months, Median home prices rose at double-digit rates in each of the four major regions year-over-year.
In the Northeast, existing home sales jump 16.2% to an annual rate of 860,000, a 22.9% increase from a year ago. The median price in the Northeast was $354,600, up 17.8% from September 2019.
In the Midwest, existing home sales rose 7.1% to an annual rate of 1,510,000 in September, up 19.8% from a year ago. The median price in the Midwest was $243,100, a gain of 14.8% from September 2019.
Existing home sales in the South gained 8.5% to an annual rate of 2.80 million, up 22.3% from one year ago. The median price in the South was $266,900, a gain of 13.0% from a year ago.
In the West, existing home sales rose 9.6% to an annual rate of 1,370,000 in September, an increase of 18.1% from a year ago. The median price in the West was $470,800, up 17.1% from September 2019.
As People’s Pundit Daily (PPD) recently reported, indicators widely show the U.S. housing market is “booming”, surpassing pre-pandemic levels and expectations. Experts now foresee housing leading the economic recovery and have raised growth forecasts for the sector.
The NAHB Housing Market Index (HMI) reported builder confidence unexpectedly rose another 2 points to 85 in October, smashing the all-time high and beating the consensus forecast.
New residential construction statistics for housing starts and building permits again beat forecasts in September, defying the lingering effects due to coronavirus (COVID-19).
Building permits rose 5.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,553,000 and are 8.1% higher year-over-year. Housing starts rose 1.9% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,415,000, and are now 11.1% year-over-year.
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported pending home sales hit an all-time high in August, surging nearly three times the consensus forecast by 8.8%. That marked the fourth straight month of solid gains.
New home sales in August — new residential sales statistics — hit the highest level since December 2006. The stronger-than-expected increase for the third consecutive month followed a record 24.7% gain in July.
Washington, D.C. (PPD) — Existing home
Washington, D.C. (PPD) — The Senate Judiciary Committee on Thursday unanimously advanced the nomination of Judge Amy Coney Barrett to the U.S. Supreme Court. The vote came at its executive business meeting despite Senate Democrats on the committee deciding to boycott in protest.
“That was their choice. It will be my choice to vote the nominee out of committee,” Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., said in opening remarks. “We are not going to allow them to take over the committee.”
“They made a choice not to participate.”
Senate Democrats oppose holding confirmation hearings before Election Day, and intend to pack the Court with more liberal justices if they win control of the White House and U.S. Senate in November.
“We will not grant this process any further legitimacy by participating in a committee markup of this nomination just twelve days before the culmination of an election that is already underway,” Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., said in a statement on Wednesday.
However, according to multiple polls conducted by Big Data Poll for the Inside The Numbers™ Election 2020 Public Polling Project in key battleground states, voter overwhelmingly oppose both blocking her nomination and court packing.
Chairman Graham and Senator Mike Lee, R-Utah, criticized Democrats for first removing the filibuster for lower court nominees during the Obama administration.allegedly beginning the process that led to the increased politicization of the Supreme Court during the Obama administration when they removed the filibuster for lower federal court nominees.
“I remember telling Senator Schumer you will regret this,” Chairman Graham said. “Today he will regret it.”
President Donald J. Trump first nominated Judge Barret to the Seventh Circuit on May 8, 2017, and the U.S. Senate held a confirmation vote on October 31, 2017. Eleven months later, she was added to the president’s list of potential nominees submitted to voters.
On September 26, 2020, President Trump nominated Judge Barrett to succeed Ruth Bader Ginsburg following her death and funeral. The two have very different views on judicial philosophy. Justice Ginsburg was a “judicial activist” while Judge Barrett favors “judicial restraint”.
Judicial philosophy was also an area researched by the Inside The Numbers™ Election 2020 Public Polling Project. Voters overwhelmingly favor judicial restraint when given each definition.
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Kty., is expected to bring the nomination to the floor of the U.S. Senate on Friday and schedule a procedural vote on Sunday. That would set up a final confirmation vote for Monday.
The Senate Judiciary Committee on Thursday unanimously
Washington, D.C. (PPD) — The U.S. Labor Department (DOL) reported initial jobless claims fell more than expected by 58,000 to a seasonally-adjusted 787,000 for the week ending October 17. The previous week was revised down significantly by 56,000 to 842,000.
Forecasts ranged from a low of 800,000 to a high of 915,000. The consensus forecast was 865,000. The 4-week moving average was 811,250, a decrease of 21,500 from the previous week, which was also revised down significantly by 33,500 from 866,250 to 832,750.
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate crated down to 5.7% for the week ending October 10, a decline of 0.7 from the previous week, which was revised down by 0.4 to 6.4. Post-Covid-19 shutdown, the insured unemployment rate first fell to single digits during the week ending August 15 at 9.9%.
The insured unemployment rate hit the first high of the current crisis at 8.2% for the week ending April 4. The all-time high prior to that was 7.0%, recorded in May of 1975. On April 11, it rose to 11.0% and 12.4% on April 25.
Under the Trump Administration, this rate had fallen to an all-time low 1.1% and remained at 1.2% as recently as March 14. But that was before coronavirus (COVID-19) mitigation efforts.
Worth noting, the labor market indicators are improving again despite the most strictest lockdown states — which consequently saw the highest number of infections — disproportionately hurting the labor market and overall economy.
The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending October 3 were in Hawaii (14.9), California (11.5), Nevada (11.3), Georgia (9.3), Puerto Rico (9.3), Louisiana (8.8), District of Columbia (8.4), New Mexico (7.8), New York (7.7), and Illinois (7.6).
The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending October 10 fell to 8,373,000, a solid decline of 1,024,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised down by 621,000 from 10,018,000 to 9,397,000.
The 4-week moving average was 10,085,750, a decrease of 1,093,500 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised down by 302,500 from 11,481,750 to 11,179,250.
As is the case with the cratering insured unemployment rate, the significant declines in the number of insured unemployed is occurring despite the disproportionate impact of the most strict lockdown states.
The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending October 10 were in California (+27,870), Illinois (+11,261), Massachusetts (+10,481), Georgia (+9,292), and Indiana (+7,840), while the largest decreases were in Michigan (-2,615), North Carolina (-2,362), Virginia (-1,733), Montana (-579), and Mississippi (-375).
Initial jobless claims fell more than expected
Washington, D.C. (PPD) — New residential construction statistics for housing starts and building permits again beat forecasts in September, defying the lingering effects due to coronavirus (COVID-19). The new residential construction statistics report below is released jointly by the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD).
Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits came in at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,553,000. That’s 5.2% (±1.6%) above the revised August rate of 1,476,000 and is 8.1% (±1.8%) higher than the September 2019 rate of 1,437,000.
Forecasts ranged from a low of 1,425,000 to a high of 1,560,000. The consensus forecast was 1,520,000.
Single-family authorizations in September came in at a rate of 1,119,000, or 7.8% (±1.1%) higher than the revised August figure of 1,038,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 390,000 in September.
Privately-owned housing starts came in at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,415,000. This is 1.9% (±8.8%) higher than the revised August estimate of 1,388,000 and an 11.1% (±11.3%) gain from the September 2019 rate of 1,274,000.
Forecasts ranged from a low of 1,375,000 to a high of 1,500,000. The consensus forecast was 1,463,000.
Single-family housing starts in September were at a rate of 1,108,000; this is 8.5% (±9.2) above the revised August figure of 1,021,000. The September rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 295,000.
Privately-owned housing completions came in at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,413,000 in September. That’s a stunning 15.3% (±11.4%) above the revised August estimate of 1,226,000, and is now a 25.8% (±11.5%) gain from the September 2019 rate of 1,123,000.
Single-family housing completions in September were at a rate of 921,000; this is 2.1% (±9.0%) above the revised August rate of 902,000. The September rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 480,000.
As People’s Pundit Daily (PPD) recently reported, indicators widely show the U.S. housing market is “booming”, surpassing pre-pandemic levels and expectations. Experts now foresee housing leading the economic recovery and have raised growth forecasts for the sector.
The NAHB Housing Market Index (HMI) reported builder confidence unexpectedly rose another 2 points to 85 in October, smashing the all-time high and beating the consensus forecast.
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported pending home sales hit an all-time high in August, surging nearly three times the consensus forecast by 8.8%. That marked the fourth straight month of solid gains.
Existing home sales in August hit the highest level since December 2006. The stronger-than-expected increase for the third consecutive month follows a record 24.7% gain in July.
New home sales in August — new residential sales statistics — hit the highest level since December 2006. The stronger-than-expected increase for the third consecutive month followed a record 24.7% gain in July.
New residential construction statistics for building permits
