Series with themes reflecting a certain billionaire politician who won the 2016 presidential election touting a very strong labor market. (Photo: AdobeStock)
Total nonfarm payrolls rose 225,000 in January and the unemployment rate ticked only slightly higher to a still low 3.6%, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) monthly jobs report. That crushed the consensus forecast, exceeding the high end of the forecast range.
Forecasts for the headline jobs number ranged from a low of 145,000 to a high of 200,000. The consensus forecast was 160,000.
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for November was revised higher by 5,000 from +256,000 to +261,000. The change for December was revised higher by 2,000 from +145,000 to +147,000.
With these two upward revisions, total nonfarm payroll gains in November and December combined were 7,000 higher than previously reported. Employment gains have now averaged 211,000 over the last 3 months.
Forecasts for unemployment ranged from a low of 3.4% to a high of 3.6%. The consensus forecast was 3.5%.
Labor Force Participation
The labor force participation rate edged higher from 63.2% to 63.4%, a very positive sign for the labor market. The employment-population ratio also edged 0.2% higher to 61.2% and is up by 0.5% over the year.
Forecasts ranged from a low of 63.2% to a high of 63.3%. The consensus forecast was 63.2%.
Total Nonfarm Private Payrolls
Total nonfarm private payrolls increased by 206,000, also crushing the forecast.
Forecasts for total nonfarm private payrolls ranged from a low of 140,000 to a high of 165,000. The consensus was 150,000.
Worth noting, the ADP National Employment Report released earlier this week found the U.S. economy added 291,000 private sector jobs in January.
Correction: A previous version of this article stated the ADP found the U.S. private sector added 202,000 rather than 291,000. It has been corrected above.
Wages
Wages, or average hourly earnings (AHE) for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls, increased by 3.1% over the last 12 months in January. AHEs for all employees rose by 7 cents to $28.44.
Forecasts for wages ranged from a low of 2.9% to a high of 3.1%. The consensus forecast was 3.0%.
The 12-month increase for December was revised up from 2.9% to 3.0, meaning wages have increased by at least 3% for 18 straight months.
The U.S. Labor Department (DOL) reported initial jobless claims fell 15,000 to a seasonally adjusted 202,000 for the week ending February 1, beating the consensus forecast. The previous week’s level was revised higher by 1,000 to 216,000.
Forecasts ranged from a low of 212,000 to a high of 219,000. The consensus forecast was 215,000.
The 4-week moving average was 211,750, a decrease of 3,000 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 250 from 214,500 to 214,750.
Lagging Jobless Claims Data
U.S. initial jobless claims graph on a tablet screen. (Photo: AdobeStock)
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was unchanged at a very low 1.2% for the week ending January 25.
The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during that week was 1,751,000, an increase of 48,000 from the previous week’s unrevised level of 1,703,000.
The 4-week moving average was 1,742,250, a decrease of 13,250 from the previous week’s unrevised average of 1,755,500.
No state was triggered “on” the Extended Benefits program during the week ending January 18.
State Jobless Claims Data
The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending January 18 were in Alaska (3.1), New Jersey (2.7), Puerto Rico (2.7), Montana (2.6), Connecticut (2.5), West Virginia (2.5), Pennsylvania (2.4), Rhode Island (2.3), Illinois (2.2), and Minnesota (2.2).
The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending January 25 were in Missouri (+536), Oregon (+406), Virginia (+228), Ohio (+221), and Kansas (+155), while the largest decreases were in California (-19,262), Illinois (-5,045), Georgia (-2,904), Pennsylvania (-2,859), and New York (-2,801).
Pete Buttigieg, Democratic presidential candidate and former South Bend, Indiana mayor, declares victory in the Iowa caucuses on February 3, 2020.
South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg declared victory following the Iowa caucuses debacle on Monday before the state party reported official numbers. With 97% reporting, we now know that declaration was premature.
With 97% reporting (1,711 of 1,765 precincts), Mr. Buttigieg’s lead over Senator Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., in state delegate equivalents (S.D.E.) has shrunk to less than 0.1%, 26.2% to 26.1% rounded to the nearest tenth.
There are 172,510 first alignment votes and 168,685 final alignment votes. There are still precincts outstanding in 28 counties. Senator Sanders is dominating in the outstanding, more diverse satellite caucuses and leading in Polk County, the largest by population in the state.
Senator Sanders leads in the first and second round popular vote, 42,672 to 36,718 and 44,753 to 42,235, respectively.
On Wednesday, Polk County Democratic Party Chair Sean Bagniewski said that he had given the state party all of the results on Tuesday. He didn’t know why they hadn’t yet been counted.
By all accounts, the Iowa Democratic Party (IDP) has made a disaster of the Iowa Caucuses. After providing no results on election night, the party made the controversial decision to release a little more than 60% of the official total, and have dripped results over the course of 72 hours.
It sparked outrage among Senator Sanders’ supporters and widespread condemnation. The latest dump was in the dead of the night a little after midnight, as was the case the night prior.
While Senator Sanders has held a popular vote lead in both the first and second round tallies, the South Bend mayor held a lead in S.D.E.s and garnered media attention as the likely winner.
The debacle allowed Mr. Buttigieg to declare a premature victory hoping to receive a bounce out of Iowa as the candidates headed to the first in the nation primary in New Hampshire.
It appears to have worked.
A Boston Globe/WBZ-TV/Suffolk University Poll finds Senator Sanders leading Mayor Buttigieg 25% to 19%, with former Vice President Joe Biden and Senator Elizabeth Warren fighting for third at 12% and 11%, respectively.
Senator Sanders has led in every poll of the contest since January.
Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and U.S. President Donald Trump face reporters during a bilateral meeting on the sidelines of the 74th session of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) in New York City, New York, U.S., September 25, 2019. (Screenshot)
The U.S. Senate voted to acquit President Donald J. Trump on the articles of impeachment alleging abuse of power and obstruction of Congress.
The chamber voted 52-48 to acquit on Article I Abuse of Power and 53-47 to acquit on Article II Obstruction of Congress.
Not a single Senate Democrat broke ranks with their party, while Senator Mitt Romney, R-Utah, broke ranks with Republicans to vote to convict on the article of impeachment alleging abuse of power.
Never has a Democratic Senator ever voted against their party in an impeachment trial.
While the effort to impeach the president began the day he took the oath of office—even before, according to public accounts—the effort in the U.S. House started 84 days ago.
An anonymous “whistleblower”—whom People’s Pundit Daily (PPD) investigated—filed a complaint alleging a quid pro quo. The complaint, which was clearly put together with legal help and congressional staffer consultation, contained hearsay and even demonstrably false claims.
It alleged the president threatened to withhold military aid from Ukraine unless President Volodymyr Zelenskiy investigated the Bidens.
Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., announced that Democrats would open an “impeachment inquiry” in the U.S. House. The unprecedented unilateral action toward impeachment was taken before the transcript was even made available.
President Trump released the transcript of the phone call in question from from July 25, 2019. A reading showed no such quid pro quo and the issue of military aid was not mentioned.
Democrats quickly turned to questions of process, specifically the White House storing the transcripts from the call on a top-secret secure server.
As People’s Pundit Daily (PPD) reported, the changes became “standard procedure” after back-to-back leaks plagued the White House in early 2017. The administration took additional steps to protect against high level leaks after the partial contents of prior calls with the leaders of Mexico and Australia appeared in media reports.
The suspected “anonymous” whistleblower—a registered Democrat and member of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA)—was thought to be responsible for a number of those leaks, including the one falsely alleging Vladimir Putin told him to fire James Comey.
He left the White House and returned to Langley under a cloud of suspicion.
Nevertheless, for the first time in U.S. history the speaker unilaterally directed the House to open the unprecedented inquiry. Speaker Pelosi also decided the effort would be spearheaded by Rep. Adam Schiff, the Chairman of the Intelligence Committee who falsely claimed to have evidence of “collusion” for nearly three years.
Impeachment proceedings have always been conducted in the Judiciary Committee, something a federal court had just ruled on. But Chairman Nadler was viewed by Speaker Pelosi as ineffective.
Prior committee hearings for Robert Mueller and Corey Lewandowski, which were meant to launch a true formal impeachment process, were seen as political disasters for Democrats.
The Intelligence Committee allowed Democrats to conduct depositors in secret and Chairman Schiff selectively leaked transcripts to advance the effort. It was also the first time in history the House did not grant equal rights to the minority party or confrontation rights to the accused.
On December 18, Democrats in the U.S. House voted to approve articles of impeachment against President Trump. The 45th President is only the third to be impeached in U.S. history.
It was the first time in modern history a partisan majority impeached a sitting president without any support from the minority.
On Article I, the vote was 230-197. Two Democrats—Reps. Collin Peterson, D-Minn., and Jeff Van Drew, D-N.J.—joined all Republicans to vote against the measure.
On Article II, the vote was 229-198. Three Democrats—Reps. Collin Peterson, D-Minn., Jeff Van Drew, D-N.J., and Jared Golden, D-Me.—joined all Republicans to vote against the measure.
Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, D-Ha., voted “present” on both articles of impeachment.
While successful, the impeachment effort represented a failure to meet the very standards set by majority leaders of the Democratic Party, themselves.
Impeachment is so divisive to the country that unless there’s something so compelling and overwhelming and bipartisan, I don’t think we should go down that path, because it divides the country.
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., March 11, 2019
If the evidence isn’t sufficient to win bipartisan support for this, putting the country through a failed impeachment isn’t a good idea.
House Intelligence Chairman Adam Schiff, D-Calif., March 11, 2019
Impeachment should not be partisan. You have to be in a situation to undertake impeachment where you believe that once all the evidence is public, not a majority but a good fraction of the opposition voters who supported the president would say, ‘Well, they had to do it. It was the right thing to do.’
House Judiciary Chairman Jerrold Nadler, D-N.Y.., September 20, 2018
Rep. Van Drew announced he will leave the Democratic Party and become a Republican following that failure. Further, impeachment has strengthened the president’s political position and re-election chances.
Gallup finds President Trump’s approval rating has hit a new high of 49% and half of registered voters say he deserves to be re-elected in November.
The poll was conducted from January 16-29, squarely in the middle of the impeachment trial in the U.S. Senate. Fifty-two percent (52%) of Americans favor the U.S. Senate acquitting President Trump, while 46% were in favor of a conviction and removal.
For the first time since 2005, the Republican Party’s favorability rating has exceeded 50%. Now, 51% of Americans view the Republican Party favorably, up from 43% in September.
The Democratic Party now has a favorability rate of 45%, down from 48% in September. Further, 48% of Americans identify as Republicans or leaning toward the GOP, compared with 44% who identify as Democrat or leaning toward the Democratic Party.
Meanwhile, President Trump is now more popular in Utah than Senator Romney. The Mormon-heavy state was slow to warm up to the president, but now a majority approve of the job he is doing.
Senator Romney’s approval rating is underwater, 46%-51%.
Former Massachusetts Republican Governor Mitt Romney speaks critically about the then-Republican frontrunner Donald Trump at the Hinckley Institute of Politics at the University of Utah in Salt Lake City, Utah, March 3, 2016. (Photo: Reuters)
Senator Mitt Romney, R-Utah, announced he will vote to convict President Donald Trump in the impeachment trial in the U.S. Senate. He will vote to convict on the abuse of power article, but to acquit on the obstruction of justice article.
On the floor of the U.S. Senate, he rejected the idea that the fate of the president should be decided by voters in November. Worth noting, Gallup reported the president’s approval rating is now at the highest of his presidency, a majority oppose conviction and half say he deserves re-election.
“The grave question the Constitution tasks senators to answer is whether the president committed an act so extreme and egregious that it rises to the level of a ‘high crime and misdemeanor,’” said Romney. “Yes, he did.”
The freshman from the Beehive State will be the only Republican to break ranks. He will also be the first person ever to vote to convict a president of their own party.
Senator Romney has long feuded with President Trump, both on a political and professional level. He fought vehemently to stop the rise of the president during the 2016 Republican Presidential Nomination.
That effort started with a blistering speech meant to blunt the president’s momentum at the Hinckley Institute of Politics at the University of Utah in Salt Lake City, Utah, on March 3, 2016.
“Donald Trump is a phony, a fraud,” calling a promise from the president was “as worthless as a degree from Trump University.”
“He’s playing the members of the American public for suckers: He gets a free ride to the White House, and all we get is a lousy hat.”
The president fired back, noting that then-former Massachusetts Gov. Romney begged him for an endorsement after he lost the 2012 South Carolina Republican Primary to Newt Gingrich.
Nevertheless, the president has attempted to extend the olive branch on numerous occasions, to include interviewing him for a role as Secretary of State he ultimately gave to Rex Tillerson.
The failed 2012 nominee would later launch a bid to replace outgoing Senator Orrin Hatch, the longest-serving Republican senator in U.S. history, and a staunch supporter of the president.
The state party didn’t welcome the run, calling him a carpetbagger, which is a political candidate who seeks election in an area where they have no local connections. Romney ran for the U.S. Senate previously in liberal Massachusetts in 1994, losing to Democratic Senator Ted Kennedy 58.1% to 41.0%.
After Senator Romney lost the runoff vote at the state party’s convention in West Valley City, he returned to the president asking for support. President Trump endorsed him against Mike Kennedy, and he prevailed
He would later create an anonymous Twitter account under the username “Pierre Delecto” which he referred to as a lurker. But he used it to defend himself and to criticize the president.
Meanwhile, Republican National Committee (RNC) Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel, addressed her uncle’s decision on Twitter.
Mitt Romney tweeting under the anonymous username Pierre Delecto.
“This is not the first time I have disagreed with Mitt, and I imagine it will not be the last,” she wrote on Twitter. “The bottom line is President Trump did nothing wrong, and the Republican Party is more united than ever behind him.”
“I, along with the @GOP, stand with President Trump.”
This is not the first time I have disagreed with Mitt, and I imagine it will not be the last.
The bottom line is President Trump did nothing wrong, and the Republican Party is more united than ever behind him.
I, along with the @GOP, stand with President Trump.
Service Sector Index (NMI) Beats Consensus Forecast at 55.5
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Non-Manufacturing Index (NMI) indicates the U.S. service sector grew at a faster pace in January. The NMI came in at 55.5%, an increase of 0.6 from the seasonally adjusted reading of 54.9% in December.
Forecasts ranged from a low of 53.5 to a high of 56.0. The consensus forecast was 55.2.
“The non-manufacturing sector exhibited continued growth in January,” Anthony Nieves, Chair of the ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee, said. “The respondents remain mostly positive about business conditions and the overall economy. Respondents continue to have difficulty with labor resources.”
The 12 non-manufacturing industries reporting growth in January — listed in order — are: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Management of Companies & Support Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Educational Services; Utilities; Accommodation & Food Services; Finance & Insurance; Retail Trade; Construction; Public Administration; Information; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services.
The six industries reporting a decrease in January — listed in order — are: Transportation & Warehousing; Wholesale Trade; Other Services; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Mining; and Real Estate, Rental & Leasing.
WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING
“Outlook remains favorable for growth in 2020. Pricing on goods and services [are] stable, with little to no pricing escalations expected for the remainder of the first quarter, except for seasonal- and trade/tariff-related impacts on food products.” (Accommodation & Food Services)
“Q1 sales are improving, which makes us more optimistic.” (Construction)
“Cautious start to 2020. Looking forward with optimism and encouragement. Conditions are favorable.” (Finance & Insurance)
“Closely monitoring China’s coronavirus and its potential impact on medical supplies like surgical masks and protective goggles.” (Health Care & Social Assistance)
“The labor market continues to be a challenge, impacting capacity and pushing up costs. Despite this, overall business volume remains positive, with growth in key sectors for our business.” (Management of Companies & Support Services)
“The oil and gas industry is off to a slow start in 2020, as oil prices dropped slightly to start the year. Companies continue to be highly disciplined about hiring direct employees or contractors and making capital investments that drive hiring. Several notable oil and gas companies announced layoffs in the first week of January 2020.” (Professional, Scientific & Technical Services)
“Customer inquiries are strong to start the new year.” (Real Estate, Rental & Leasing)
“Activity is fair overall, but with regional ups and downs. The West in general has been favorable due to snowfall increasing sales activity, while the East has been down due to warmer weather in key winter tire markets. Optimism for the month, however, is good.” (Wholesale Trade)
Private sector employment increased by 291,000 jobs in January, according to the ADP National Employment Report.
Forecasts ranged from a low of 137,000 to a high of 190,000. The consensus forecast was 154,000, a solid but far more moderate number.
“The labor market experienced expanded payrolls in January,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute. “Goods producers added jobs, particularly in construction and manufacturing, while service providers experienced a large gain, led by leisure and hospitality. Job creation was strong among midsized companies, though small companies enjoyed the strongest performance in the last 18 months.”
Private sector employment for medium businesses with 50-499 employees rose by 128,000 jobs. Small businesses with 1-49 employees added a very solid 94,000.
Coupled with job gains in the higher-paying goods-producing sector, the report bodes well for wages.
“Mild winter weather provided a significant boost to the January employment gain,” Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said. “The leisure and hospitality and construction industries in particular experienced an outsized increase in jobs.”
“Abstracting from the vagaries of the data underlying job growth is close to 125,000 per month, which is consistent with low and stable unemployment.”
The goods-producing sector added 54,000 jobs in January, including 47,000 in construction and 10,000 in manufacturing. The service-providing sector added 237,000, led by leisure/hospitality adding 96,000 and education/health services gaining 70,000.
The gain in total private sector employment for December was barely revised down from 202,000 to 199,000.
Live results of the 2020 Iowa Caucus including totals for state delegate equivalents, which are derived from vote tallies and result in pledged delegates.
Candidate
1st Vote
Pct.
2nd Vote
Pct.
S.D.E.s
SDE Pct.
Delegates
Sanders
43,698
24.7%
45,831
26.5%
563
26.2%
12
Buttigieg
37,595
21.3
43,273
25.1
563
26.2
13
Warren
32,609
18.5
34,932
20.2
388
18.0
8
Biden
26,323
14.9
23,631
13.7
340
15.8
6
Klobuchar
22,473
12.7
21,120
12.2
264
12.3
1
Yang
8,929
5.1
1,759
1.0
22
1.0
Steyer
3,083
1.7
413
0.2
7
0.3
Uncommitted
1,000
0.6
1,451
0.8
4
0.2
Other
159
0.2
205
0.1
1
0.1
Gabbard
342
0.2
16
0.0
0
0.0
Bloomberg
217
0.1
20
0.0
0
0.0
Bennet
164
0.1
1
0.0
0
0.0
Patrick
50
0.0
0
0.0
0
0.0
Delaney
10
0.0
0
0.0
0
0.0
99% reporting (1,760 of 1,765 precincts). There are 176,436 first alignment votes, 172,521 final alignment votes. There are still precincts with votes outstanding in 1 county.
Pete Buttigieg currently leads in 58 counties, while Bernie Sanders leads in 20 counties. Joe Biden leads in 8 counties and Elizabeth Warren leads in 1 county.
*Candidate totals are state delegate equivalents (S.D.E.s), which are derived from caucus vote tallies and determine the number of pledged delegates each candidate receives.
Senator Susan Collins, R-Maine, announced on the floor of the U.S. Senate that she will vote to acquit President Donald J. Trump on both articles of impeachment.
“During the Clinton impeachment trial, I argued we must conclude beyond a doubt that the Constitution would be injured by allowing him to remain in office,” Senator Collins said. “I voted to acquit President Clinton even though the House managers proved that he did commit a crime because it did not meet that threshold.”
She added that it was “clear from the July 25 2019 phone call between President Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky that the request for an “investigation into the Bidens activities was improper.”
On both Article I Abuse of Power and Article II Obstruction of Congress, Senator Collins said the Democrats’ own actions undermined their argument. On the first article, she noted the House did little to support its assertion in that the president would damage the country if allowed to remain in office.
“The fact that the House delayed transmitting the articles of impeachment to the Senate for 33 days undercuts this argument.” “For all the reasons I have mentioned, I will vote to acquit on Article I.”
Senator Collins lambasted House Democrats for withdrawing a subpoena seeking testimony and for chosing not to issue a subpoena to John Bolton, the national security advisor the House identified as a key witness.
“The House actually withdrew a subpoena seeking testimony” and “chose not to issue a subpoena to John Bolton, the national security advisor the House has ID’ed as a key witness.”
“In this case, however, the House chose to skip the basic steps of judicial adjudication and rushed right to impeachment.” “Therefore, I will vote to acquit on Article II.”
The U.S. Senate will vote tomorrow on the impeachment and removal of the president. It is widely expected that he will be acquitted on both articles, though the number of votes is still uncertain.
Interestingly, the non-stop, at least 3-year effort to impeachment the president has strengthened him politically.
A Gallup poll conducted from January 16-29 poll—squarely in the middle of the impeachment trial in the U.S. Senate—finds 52% of Americans favor the U.S. Senate acquitting President Trump, while 46% are in favor of a conviction and removing him from office.
President Trump’s approval rating has hit a new high of 49% and half of registered voters say he deserves to be re-elected in November.
Factory orders, or new orders for manufactured goods, increased $8.6 billion or 1.8% to $499.3 billion in December, the U.S. Census Bureau reported. New orders have been up for two of the last three months and beat the forecast for this month.
Forecasts ranged from a low of 0.5% to a high of 2.0%. The consensus forecast was 1.3%.
Durable Goods and Nondurable Goods
New orders for manufactured durable goods increased $5.9 billion or 2.4% to $245.6 billion in December, after being up two of the last three months. The gain follows a 3.1% decline in November.
Transportation equipment drove the increase rising $6.1 billion or 7.9% to $83.2 billion, after three straight monthly declines. drove the increase. New orders for manufactured nondurable goods rose $2.8 billion or 1.1% to $253.8 billion.
Shipments
Shipments of manufactured durable goods fell $0.5 billion or 0.2% to $250.3 billion in December, essentially unchanged after six consecutive months of declines.
Unfilled Orders
Unfilled orders for manufactured durable goods fell $0.6 billion to $1,156.2 billion in December, and have been down three of the last four months.
Inventories
Inventories of manufactured durable goods rose $2.1 billion or 0.5% to $435.9 billion in December, after being up seventeen of the last eighteen months. That follows a 0.4% gain in November.
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