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A man and a woman mourn next to a body of one the victims of a blast targeting a wedding ceremony in the southern Turkish city of Gaziantep, Turkey, August 20, 2016. (Photo: Ihlas News Agency via REUTERS)

A man and a woman mourn next to a body of one the victims of a blast targeting a wedding ceremony in the southern Turkish city of Gaziantep, Turkey, August 20, 2016. (Photo: Ihlas News Agency via REUTERS)

At least 22 people have been killed and 94 others wounded in an apparent ISIS terror attack in Turkey, the southern city of Gaziantep. Reuters reported on Saturday a member of Turkey’s parliament has said the attack, which took place at a wedding hall, was believed to have been carried out by ISIS.

There has been no immediate claim of responsibility.

“This was a barbaric attack. It appears to be a suicide attack. All terror groups, the PKK, Daesh, the (Gulen movement) are targeting Turkey. But God willing, we will overcome,” Deputy Prime Minister Mehmet Simsek told NTV, using the term Daesh, the Arabic name for ISIS.

Turkey, a member of the NATO alliance, has been the victim of a string of attacks by the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or the Islamo-leftist group known as PKK. The Kurdish militants, which began fighting for autonomy and independence in southeast Turkey in 1984, is labeled by the government and its allies as a terrorist organization.

Earlier this week, two car bombs targeting police stations killed at least six people and wounded at least 219 others. Last month, the country was nearly torn apart by an attempted coup by a small rogue element within the military trying to overthrow President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. The Turkish military has always seen itself as a protector of the secular constitution, but President Erdoğan claims the coup was plotted and supported by a former ally, the exiled Islamic cleric Fethullah Gulen.

But even as the country moves further toward hardline Islamism under the current president, they still have been plagued by Islamic extremism.

Three suspected Islamic State suicide bombers killed 44 people at Istanbul’s main airport in July, marking the deadliest in a string of attacks in Turkey this year. Anadolu Agency, a state-run news agency in Turkey, cited Gaziantep Governor Ali Yerlikaya as saying Saturday’s explosion was a “terror attack.”

At least 22 people have been killed

A man and a woman mourn next to a body of one the victims of a blast targeting a wedding ceremony in the southern Turkish city of Gaziantep, Turkey, August 20, 2016. (Photo: Ihlas News Agency via REUTERS)

A man and a woman mourn next to a body of one the victims of a blast targeting a wedding ceremony in the southern Turkish city of Gaziantep, Turkey, August 20, 2016. (Photo: Ihlas News Agency via REUTERS)

UPDATE: At least 22 people have been killed and 94 others wounded in an apparent ISIS terror attack in Turkey, the southern city of Gaziantep. Read the full updated article.

ORIGINAL STORY: At least 8 people have been killed and 60 others wounded in an apparent terror attack in the southern city of Gaziantep, Reuters reported on Saturday. A member of Turkey’s parliament has said the attack, which took place at a wedding hall, was believed to have been carried out by ISIS.

Turkey, a member of the NATO alliance, has been the victim of a string of attacks by the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or the Islamo-leftist group known as PKK. The Kurdish militants, which began fighting for autonomy and independence in southeast Turkey in 1984, is labeled by the government and its allies as a terrorist organization.

Earlier this week, two car bombs targeting police stations killed at least six people and wounded at least 219 others. Last month, the country was nearly torn apart by an attempted coup by a small rogue element within the military trying to overthrow President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. The Turkish military has always seen itself as a protector of the secular constitution, but President Erdoğan claims the coup was plotted and supported by a former ally, the exiled Islamic cleric Fethullah Gulen.

But even as the country moves further toward hardline Islamism under the current president, they still have been plagued by Islamic extremism.

Three suspected Islamic State suicide bombers killed 44 people at Istanbul’s main airport in July, marking the deadliest in a string of attacks in Turkey this year. Anadolu Agency, a state-run news agency in Turkey, cited Gaziantep Governor Ali Yerlikaya as saying Saturday’s explosion was a “terror attack.”

At least 8 people have been killed

United States center Brittney Griner high fives teammates after a play during the second half of a women’s basketball game against Senegal at the Youth Center at the 2016 Summer Olympics in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, Sunday, Aug. 7, 2016. The United States defeated Senegal 121-56. (Photo: AP/Carlos Osorio)

United States center Brittney Griner high fives teammates after a play during the second half of a women’s basketball game against Senegal at the Youth Center at the 2016 Summer Olympics in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, Sunday, Aug. 7, 2016. The United States defeated Senegal 121-56. (Photo: AP/Carlos Osorio)

Rio de Janeiro, Brazil — The U.S. Olympic women’s basketball team crushed Spain 101-72 to win the gold medal basketball game in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.The Americans have now won six straight gold medals in Olympic women’s basketball and 49 consecutive Olympic tournament games.

Diana Taurasi and Lindsay Whalen each score 17 points, while three other teammates scored in double figures.

Rio de Janeiro, Brazil -- The U.S.

Elizabeth-Warren-Hillary-Clinton

Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., left, and Sec. of State Hillary Clinton, right. (Photo: AP/Associated Press)

I’m sometimes guilty of repeating myself. I write over and over again on topics such as the flat tax and spending caps, though I hope each time I bring something new to the discussion.

Another issue that motivates me is the debate about inequality, redistribution, and growth. I get all agitated and can’t resist trying to debunk statist claims that we should focus on re-slicing the pie rather than expanding the pie.

Here are just a few examples.

The invaluable Scott Winship makes the same argument in the Washington Post, but does it much better.

He starts with some very solid observations about why inequality doesn’t matter.

Changes to the tax code certainly could reduce inequality, but the real question is whether we should try to reduce it. There is little evidence that we should. …Across developed countries, those with higher inequality have slightly higher middle-class incomes and less poverty. …Areas of the United States with more income concentration at the top have no worse mobility than areas with low inequality. The same is true across countries — the best research indicates that low-inequality Sweden is no more mobile than the United States. …studies by experts including Thomas Piketty and Emmanuel Saez indicate that countries with higher inequality growth tend to have higher economic growth too. …Prioritizing inequality betrays indifference to policy outcomes and pure antipathy toward top earners.

And he then pivots and spends some time explaining why the focus should be on growth (assuming, of course, that the goal is actually to improve the lives of poor people rather than merely to punish the rich).

…nothing helps the poor and middle class like economic growth, and that is best pursued by policy reforms that ignore inequality. To promote growth, the next president should abolish corporate taxes and reform individual taxes… She should promote state and local reform of occupational licensing and land-use regulation. She should reform entitlements, including Obamacare, and reorient immigration policy in favor of admitting more higher-skilled and less lower-skilled immigrants. She should pursue a deregulatory agenda… Unfortunately, the distraction of inequality — or nationalism — makes it unlikely the next president will pursue any of these policies, and the poor and middle class will be worse off for it.

At this point, I imagine that some of my statist friends are sputtering and stammering to themselves about the new narrative, very popular on the left, about inequality harming growth.

I’ve already exposed the very shoddy attempts by political types at the OECD and IMF to push this ideologically-based talking point.

But what about the supposedly path-breaking work of Thomas Piketty? Didn’t he somehow produce game-changing data in support of higher taxes and more redistribution?

Nope. He basically showed that rich people are rich, which isn’t a stunning revelation. More controversially, he wanted people to conclude that rich people being rich somehow caused poor people to be poor.

And the theory he concocted to ostensibly “prove” his argument is so outlandish (basically assuming the return on investment is always greater than the underlying rate of growth) that only 2 percent-3 percent of economists are willing to “agree” or “strongly agree” with his premise.

For those who care more about empirical data rather than theory, you may be interested in a new working paper from one of the professional economists at the IMF. Carlos Góes finds that there’s no evidence for Piketty’s hypothesis.

Piketty…argues that all other things constant, whenever the difference between the returns on capital (r) and the output growth rate (g) increases, the share of capital in national income increases. Furthermore, since capital income tends to be more unequally distributed than labor income, an increase of the capital share would likely lead to increased overall income (and, over time, wealth) inequality. …I find no empirical evidence that the dynamics move in the way Piketty suggests. In fact, for at least 75% of the countries examined, inequality responds negatively to r − g shocks, which is in line with previous single-equation estimates by Acemoglu and Robinson (2015). The results also suggest that changes in the savings rate, which Piketty takes as relatively stable over time, are likely to offset most of the impact of r − g shocks on the capital share of the national income. Thus, it provides empirical evidence to the model developed by Krusell and A. Smith (2015), who say Piketty relies on flawed theory of savings. The conclusions are robust to alternative estimates of r − g and to the exclusion or inclusion of tax rates in the calculation of the real return on capital. …Figure 2 plots the contemporaneous correlations between r−g spreads and capital share, and share of the top 1%. Such basic correlations show no evidence of the relationship Piketty poses.

And here is the aforementioned Figure 2, with the capital share shown on the left and the share of the top 1 percent on the right.

For those who don’t like a lot of economic jargon (or don’t like looking at eye-glazing charts), here’s how the study was summarized in a report for the Wall Street Journal.

Mr. Piketty hypothesized that income inequality has risen because returns on capital—such as profits, interest and rent that are more gleanings of the rich than the poor—outpaced economic growth. …But Mr. Piketty’s thesis, posed by the French economist in his controversial 2013 tome “Capital in the Twenty-First Century,” isn’t proved by historical data, says International Monetary Fund economist Carlos Góes. …“While rich in data, the book provides no formal empirical testing for its theoretical causal chain.” Mr. Góes tested the thesis against three decades of data from 19 advanced economies. “I find no empirical evidence that dynamics move in the way Piketty suggests.” In fact, for three-quarters of the countries he studied, inequality actually fell when capital returns accelerated faster than output. Those findings support previous work by Daron Acemoglu of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and political scientist James Robinson, now of the University of Chicago, suggesting Mr. Piketty’s thesis was far too simplistic… Why does all this matter? Because if policy makers seeking to address inequalities misunderstand the problem, their solutions could be wrong, ineffective and costly. Based on his inequality theory, Mr. Piketty has proposed progressive wealth taxes, a measure some economists argue could harm economic growth.

Amen. You don’t make poor people rich by trying to make rich people poor.

Unfortunately, I suspect (as Margaret Thatcher sagely observed) that a lot of leftists are more motivated by animus against success than they are about genuine concern for the poor.

That being said, some people do benefit from the pursuit of class-warfare policy.The College Fix discusses a new report about how some of the people who advocate higher taxes and more redistribution have figured out how to redistribute big chunks of money from taxpayers to themselves.

Several UC Berkeley economics professors who support “income inequality” research each earn more than $300,000 a year, putting them in the top 2 percent of the public university’s salary distribution, according to a recent report by a nonpartisan California think tank. …Cal’s equitable growth center’s director, economics Professor Emmanuel Saez, earned an annual salary of just under $350,000. The center’s three advisory board members – all economics professors – made similar amounts: Professor David Card made $336,367 in 2014; Professor Gerard Roland took in $304,608; and Professor Alan Auerbach earned $291,782. That’s not even including their pensions — equal to 2.5 percent times their final average salary times the number of years employed. …Another vocal income inequality expert at UC Berkeley, Professor Robert Reich – former secretary of labor under Bill Clinton’s administration who in 2013 helped produce the film “Inequality for All” – earned $263,592 in 2014, the think tank’s report states.

The article closes with a suggestion that I think will fall upon deaf ears.

…the report concluded. “So if UC Berkeley economists are really opposed to income inequality and are concerned about low-paid workers, they might consider sharing some of their compensation with the teaching assistants, graders, readers and administrative staff at the bottom of Cal’s income distribution.”

By the way, I strongly suspect that Thomas Piketty hasn’t given away all the money he earned from the infamous book he produced in defense of class warfare. Shouldn’t he lead by example?

[mybooktable book=”global-tax-revolution-the-rise-of-tax-competition-and-the-battle-to-defend-it” display=”summary” buybutton_shadowbox=”true”]

CATO economist Dan Mitchell moves to debunk

Chelsea-Hillary-Bill-Clinton-money

Bill Clinton, Hillary Clinton, Chelsea Clinton at the Clinton Foundation with money imposed over the photo. (Original Photo: AP)

Back in 2009, I shared some academic research showing the unsavory link between lobbying expenditures and bailout cash from TARP.

Just in case anybody naively thinks that such distasteful favor-swapping no longer occurs, here’s some more evidence. A column in the International Business Times summarizes some new scholarly research, once again showing the corrupt nexus between big government and the financial sector.

…analysis from London Business School professors Ahmed Tahoun and Florin Vasvari analyzed how the personal finances of congressional lawmakers changed once they were appointed to the Senate Finance Committee, the Senate Banking Committee or the House Financial Services Committee. It also evaluated how their finances compared with other lawmakers who are not on those panels. …the researchers found that finance committee members’ personal borrowing tended to jump in the first year they were appointed to the panels — a trend not seen for other lawmakers who were given seats on other powerful committees. Similarly, the data show that upon joining the finance panels, lawmakers tended to be given 32 percent more time — or on average 4 and a half years more — to pay back those new debts than loans they previously had and that other members of Congress have. The study found that lawmakers also “report more favorable debt terms when they join the finance committee, relative to other years and to the terms other congressional members obtain including those on other powerful committees.”

Needless to say, the companies aren’t giving special treatment to these politicians because of altruism. For every quid, there’s a quo.

…the influence may operate in the other direction, too. Looking at which particular financial institutions are lending to lawmakers, the researchers found that underperforming banks provided new — and bigger — loans to more finance committee members than to other Members of Congress. They say that because those firms could face more regulatory scrutiny and financial instability from new federal policies, they are more reliant on strong political connections than competitors that are in better shape.

In other words, if you can’t succeed by competing in the marketplace, then curry favor with politicians so that you can be propped up by big government.

Though companies presumably have learned from the Countrywide scandal to be more cautious about disguising the fact that they are dispensing goodies.

…mortgage industry titan Countrywide Financial created a “VIP loan unit” that gave lower mortgage rates and expedited loan processing services to lawmakers that oversaw legislation affecting the firm. …Democratic U.S. Senators Chris Dodd and Kent Conrad were cleared by the ethics committee, which said they did not knowingly seek the perks. The committee, though, told the lawmakers they “should have exercised more vigilance in your dealings with Countrywide in order to avoid the appearance that you were receiving preferential treatment based on your status as a senator.”

By the way, I’m not exactly shocked that the congressional ethics committee (wow, talk about an oxymoron) didn’t even bother slapping the wrists of the politicians who got the favors. After all, imagine how much harder it would be to raise campaign cash if politicians couldn’t use the coercive power of government to swap favors with interest groups.

But the folks on Capitol Hill are amateurs compared to Bill and Hillary Clinton. TheWall Street Journal explains that the charity they set up has basically been a scam to advance their personal and political interests.

The foundation served for years as a conduit for corporate and foreign cash to burnish the Clinton image, pay for their travel expenses for speeches and foreign trips, and employ their coterie in between campaigns or government gigs. Donors could give as much as they wanted because the foundation is a “charity.” …the foundation promised the White House when Mrs. Clinton became Secretary of State that the foundation would restrict foreign donations and get approval from the State Department. It turned out the foundation violated that pledge, specifically when accepting $500,000 from Algeria. The foundation also agreed to disclose donor names but failed to do so for more than 1,000 foreign donors until the failure was exposed by press reports.

Some readers may think it doesn’t matter where the money came from. What really counts is that the Clinton Foundation used the money to make the world a better place, right?

Um, not exactly. Only pennies on the dollar were used for charitable purposes.

The rest of the money was a slush fund to finance the Clinton family’s political machinery.

If you think this sounds unfair to the Clinton Foundation, you may change your mind after reading this article from theDaily Caller. Here are some excerpts.

Clinton Foundation officials have ignored virtually all of the “best practices” urged by good governance organizations for public charities… Most glaringly, for example, the foundation’s insular board of directors…are among President Bill and Hillary Clinton’s closest and richest friends. The “good governance” movement in the nonprofit field has been gathering strength for two decades, but it clearly has yet to reach the Clinton Foundation. …Good governance groups also encourage well-managed non-profits to create dedicated oversight committees… The Clinton Foundation has none of those committees, according to its Internal Revenue Service 990 tax filings. …the Clinton Foundation spent $12.6 million on Bill Clinton’s 60th birthday party. The foundation recorded the expense as “fundraising expenses.” …In December 2014 the board approved a $395,000 pay package for Braverman to become the new CEO.  But the next month he abruptly resigned. Politico reported that Clinton’s insular staff were appalled at Braverman’s attempts at reforms. Braverman never explained the reasons for his departure. But Politico believes it was a backlash from Bill and Hillary’s hardened loyalists and “mega-donors” who chafed at the notion of more openness and transparency.

If the Clinton Foundation was a truly private organization, it wouldn’t be anybody’s business whether how it operated.

Moreover, it would be hypocritical for me to make that accusation. After all, I’m on the Board of the pro-tax competition Center for Freedom and Prosperity and the other Board members are long-time friends. And we don’t have a bunch of oversight committees since CF&P’s annual budget has averaged less than $200,000, which means such things don’t seem necessary (though we’ve managed to do a lot with a little, even earning a front-page attack from theWashington Post).

The real issue, however, is whether a nonprofit organization is genuinely private. In the case of the Clinton Foundation, ” the organization seemingly operated as a “pay-to-play” gatekeeper for goodies from the State Department?

Consider these blurbs from a column in the Wall Street Journal.

…more than two dozen companies and groups and one foreign government paid former President Bill Clinton a total of more than $8 million to give speeches around the time they also had matters before Mrs. Clinton’s State Department, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis. Fifteen of them also donated a total of between $5 million and $15 million to the Bill, Hillary and Chelsea Clinton Foundation, the family’s charity… In several instances, State Department actions benefited those that paid Mr. Clinton.

Here’s one of the examples discussed in the column.

…the capital of the United Arab Emirates asked for a facility to clear travelers for U.S. entry before they boarded planes so they could avoid delays when arriving in the U.S. …U.S.-based airlines, which have no direct flights between Abu Dhabi and the U.S., opposed the idea as a giveaway to the government-owned airline, Etihad Airways. …While Mrs. Clinton’s State Department and the Department of Homeland Security were working out a “letter of intent” with Abu Dhabi for the facility, Mr. Clinton sought permission to give a paid speech in Abu Dhabi. …On Dec. 6, 2011, U.S. officials signed the letter of intent. One week later, Mr. Clinton gave a 20-minute talk on climate change to the Abu Dhabi government environmental gathering. He collected $500,000, his wife’s disclosure report shows. In December 2012, Mr. Clinton sought approval for another speech in Abu Dhabi before the World Travel and Tourism Council…the speech was sponsored by three Abu Dhabi tourism agencies, all owned by the government. …Mr. Clinton gave a keynote address on the value of tourism. He was paid $500,000, his wife’s disclosure filings say. One week later, the U.S. and Abu Dhabi signed the final agreement for the facility. …Mrs. Clinton’s spokesman said it was “farcical” to suggest any connection between the speeches and the facility’s opening.

The “farcical” part of this is the notion that a) Bill Clinton is an expert on the “value of tourism”, and b) that his supposed expertise on the topic is worth $500,000.

Though I have to give Bill Clinton credit for getting good deals. When I give a speech, I’m content with simply getting the organizer to pay for a coach ticket and a hotel room.

But the L.A. Times reveals that Bill Clinton gets much better treatment, not even counting the giant piles of money funneled to the Clinton Foundation.

Clinton changed the rules of political speech-making for cash. He would push not just corporate hosts but also nonprofits and universities to pay fees well beyond what they were accustomed to. …He and Hillary Clinton would become so skilled at churning profits out of their lectures that they would net more than $150 million from speaking alone after he left the White House. …refusing questions that were not screened by his staff in advance. There is the nearly $1,400 bill for a day’s worth of phone calls from San Francisco’s Fairmont Hotel and the $700 dinner for two. …Clinton would demand in his contract to be shuttled by private jet from San Francisco to UC Davis, where he spoke at the Mondavi Center. The center had to appeal to its network of donors to find someone able to fly him the 70 miles, something it had never done and hasn’t since.

By the way, I don’t object to Bill Clinton being treated far better than me. But I do get agitated if he’s getting goodies because some interest group is participating in a pay-for-play scam based on favors from government.

And that does come out of my pocket, as well as from the pockets of every other taxpayer, consumer, and worker.

Speaking of pay-to-play, here’s a story from the Washington Examiner about some unseemly behavior from the Clinton Foundation.

A Clinton Foundation official asked an aide to then-Secretary of State Hillary Clinton if the government would allow the well-connected charity to accept a donation from an oil company with extensive ties to Iran. …The email shows Petronas, a Malaysian state-owned oil company, wanted to send CEO Shamsul Azhar bin Abbas to a Clinton Global Initiative event as a paying member. …Two months earlier, the State Department highlighted a $150 million contract between Petronas and General Electric in Malaysia. …David Bossie, president of Citizens United, said the timeline of the State Department’s announcement of the deal with GE should raise questions. “A month after the announcement, the Clinton Foundation staff is contacting the State Department saying, ‘Hey, we want to shake down the CEO, essentially, of Petronus, is that ok?’…,” Bossie said. “That is political crony capitalism — that’s the definition of it, is using your political contacts and your political achievements for financial gain for the foundation,” he continued. “Clearly, [there was] a conflict of interest.”

The only good news is that the proposed shakedown of Petronas apparently didn’t happen, though it’s unclear from the records whether this was because the company said no or because the idea was so over-the-top corrupt that it was rejected by the State Department.

Let’s close with a really nauseating example of Clintonian sleaze. A story inNational Review exposes how the family’s Foundation victimized the people of Haiti.

Their story goes back to 2010, when a massive 7.0 earthquake devastated the island, killing more than 200,000 people, leveling 100,000 homes, and leaving 1.5 million people destitute. The devastating effect of the earthquake on a very poor nation provoked worldwide concern and inspired an outpouring of…some $10.5 billion in aid, with $3.9 billion of it coming from the United States.

But all this money hasn’t helped the poor people of Haiti.

…very little of this aid money actually got to poor people in Haiti. …Port-au-Prince was supposed to be rebuilt; it was never rebuilt. Projects aimed at creating jobs proved to be bitter disappointments. Haitian unemployment remained high, largely undented by the funds that were supposed to pour into the country. Famine and illness continued to devastate the island nation.

Why didn’t all the money have a positive impact?

Part of the answer is that foreign aid generally ineffective. Another part of the answer is that Haiti has statist policies that inhibit growth and prosperity.

But a final part of the answer is that a bunch of grifters diverted the money to their own pockets.

Where did it go? …Bill Clinton was the designated UN representative for aid to Haiti. …his wife Hillary was the United States secretary of state. She was in charge of U.S. aid allocated to Haiti. …an interesting pattern involving the Clintons and the designation of how aid funds were used. …a number of companies that received contracts in Haiti happened to be entities that made large donations to the Clinton Foundation. …For example, the Clinton Foundation selected Clayton Homes, a construction company owned by Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway, to build temporary shelters in Haiti. Buffett is an active member of the Clinton Global Initiative who has donated generously to the Clintons as well as the Clinton Foundation. …the contract was never competitively bid for. Clayton offered to build “hurricane-proof trailers” but what they actually delivered turned out to be a disaster. The trailers were structurally unsafe, with high levels of formaldehyde and insulation coming out of the walls. There were problems with mold and fumes. The stifling heat inside made Haitians sick and many of them abandoned the trailers because they were ill-constructed and unusable.

Here’s another example of pay-to-play favoritism.

The Clintons also funneled $10 million in federal loans to a firm called InnoVida, headed by Clinton donor Claudio Osorio. …Normally the loan approval process takes months or even years. …InnoVida had not even provided an independently audited financial report that is normally a requirement for such applications. This requirement, however, was waived. On the basis of the Clinton connection, InnoVida’s application was fast-tracked and approved in two weeks. The company, however, defaulted on the loan and never built any houses. An investigation revealed that Osorio had diverted company funds to pay for his Miami Beach mansion, his Maserati, and his Colorado ski chalet.

Gee, isn’t government a great racket!

Here’s one final oleaginous example.

In 2011, the Clinton Foundation brokered a deal with Digicel, a cell-phone-service provider seeking to gain access to the Haitian market. The Clintons arranged to have Digicel receive millions in U.S. taxpayer money to provide mobile phones. The USAID Food for Peace program, which the State Department administered through Hillary aide Cheryl Mills, distributed Digicel phones free to Haitians. Digicel didn’t just make money off the U.S. taxpayer; it also made money off the Haitians. When Haitians used the phones, either to make calls or transfer money, they paid Digicel for the service. Haitians using Digicel’s phones also became automatically enrolled in Digicel’s mobile program. By 2012, Digicel had taken over three-quarters of the cell-phone market in Haiti. Digicel is owned by Denis O’Brien, a close friend of the Clintons. O’Brien secured three speaking engagements in his native Ireland that paid $200,000 apiece. These engagements occurred right at the time that Digicel was making its deal with the U.S. State Department. O’Brien has also donated lavishly to the Clinton Foundation, giving between $1 million and $5 million sometime in 2010–2011. Coincidentally the United States government paid Digicel $45 million to open a hotel in Port-au-Prince.

If you’re not thoroughly nauseated, read the entire article for many more examples of pay-to-play sleaze.

By the way, I’m not merely picking on the Clintons. Yes, they seem to be remarkably amoral in their approach to politics, but the underlying problem is that big government enables corruption regardless of who is in charge.

That’s the moral of the story.

P.S. Don’t forget that the Clinton Foundation easily got approved by the IRS while innocuous Tea Party groups were stonewalled. Another typical example of government in action.

When it comes to big government helping

State-Department-Hillary-Clinton-AP

State Department headquarters in D.C., left, and, right, Hillary Rodham Clinton speaks to the reporters at United Nations headquarters on Tuesday, March 10, 2015. (Photos: AP/Seth Wenig)

A federal judge ordered Hillary Clinton to answer questions under oath regarding her use of a private email server when she served as secretary of state. U.S. District Court Judge Emmet G. Sullivan, as part of a lawsuit filed by Judicial Watch, ruled she would have to answer questions in writing even though FBI Director James Comey announced last month that the Bureau would not seek criminal charges against Mrs. Clinton.

The decision by the FBI director is one that polls show most Americans disagreed with and Judge Sullivan apparently believes the issue warrants further investigation, as well.

“The Court is persuaded that Secretary Clinton’s testimony is necessary to enable her to explain on the record the purpose for the creation and operation of the clintonemail.com system for State Department business.”

Chris Farrell, Director of Investigations at Judicial Watch, said that the group would rather have Mrs. Clinton answer questions in person, as her aides did as the result of previous rulings by Judge Sullivan, the court’s decision was still a victory for the government watchdog organization and a defeat for the Democratic presidential candidate.

“Judicial Watch will get Clinton under oath regarding the set-up of her outlaw server – something no other person, organization or agency has been ableto do, to date,” Mr. Farrell said. “We believe it is a victory for law and order to get Hillary Clinton under oath answering questions about the server setup and why she did it.”

The court order reads as follows:

[T] the State Department shall release all remaining documents responsive to Judicial Watch’s Freedom of Information Act request by no later than September 30, 2016; and it is FURTHER ORDERED that, consistent with Rule 33 of the Federal Rules of Civil Procedure, Judicial Watch may serve interrogatories on Secretary Clinton by no later than October 14, 2016 … Secretary Clinton’s responses are due by no later than thirty days thereafter … Judicial Watch may depose Mr. Bentel by no later than October 31, 2016.

Judicial Watch President Tom Fitton, who has led the group in obtaining previously uncovered emails and documents relating to Benghazi, which kicked off the House Select Committee on Benghazi led by Rep. Trey Gowdy, R-S.C., also expressed his appreciation for the decision.

“We are pleased that this federal court ordered Hillary Clinton to provide written answers under oath to some key questions about her email scandal,” Mr. Fitton said in a statement. “We will move quickly to get these answers. The decision is a reminder that Hillary Clinton is not above the law.”

A federal judge ordered Hillary Clinton to

PHOTO: Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump, followed by his running mate, Indiana Gov. Mike Pence arrive in Louisiana to tour the flood devastation. (Photo: AP)

PHOTO: Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump, followed by his running mate, Indiana Gov. Mike Pence arrive in Louisiana to tour the flood devastation. (Photo: AP)

Donald Trump and Gov. Mike Pence toured the Louisiana flood devastation on Friday, forcing President Barack Obama to announce he’ll visit the region. The two men received a warm welcome from the flood victims, more than 80,000 of whom have sighed up for assistance from the Federal Emergency Management Agency. The flood waters destroyed 40,000 homes and killed 13 people in in Louisiana and Mississippi, while thousands still remain at about three dozen shelters across the region.

A large crowd gathered to greet the Republican presidential ticket as they arrived, shouting their thanks and

“We knew you would be here, Mr. Trump,” one woman yelled to the New York businessman. “We knew you would be here for us!”

“We’re glad you aren’t playing golf,” another person shouted in reference to President Obama playing golf throughout the week, yesterday with “Seinfeld” creator Larry David. Mr. Trump and Gov. Pence handed out supplies to the victims during the trip his critics said smacked of political opportunism.

[brid video=”59692″ player=”2077″ title=”Louisiana Flood Victims to Trump “We Knew You Would Be Here for Us!””]

“I came here to help,” Trump told hurting victims, many of whom said they were not initially Trump supporters. Terry Phinney, 42, a maintenance supervisor at Greenwell Springs Baptist Church on the outskirts of Baton Rouge, told the LA Times the trip “was a good little boost for folks who are tired.”

“I just appreciate his passion,” said Mr. Phinney, whose father’s home flooded. “When he looked me in the eye and shook my hand, it felt real. The guy is down here for more than just a vote. I feel like this is legit. So he’s got my vote.”

Phinney, who said he was not always on the Trump Train, was impressed Mr. Trump genuinely “wanted to know percentages of homes damaged in the area, around about how many would have flood insurance.” Asking questions alongside his running mate during a meeting with a group of flood victims and volunteers, Mr. Trump appeared to have a desire to “educating himself” about the victims’ situation post disaster. While the street was littered with housing rubble, including the church had not been damaged in the flood.

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump and his running mate, Indiana Gov. Mike Pence, right, help to unload supplies for flood victims during a tour of the flood damaged area in Gonzales, La., on Friday. (Photo: AP)

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump and his running mate, Indiana Gov. Mike Pence, right, help to unload supplies for flood victims during a tour of the flood damaged area in Gonzales, La., on Friday. (Photo: AP)

However, roughly half of the congregational staff were dealing with flood damage, and the pastor told the Times he estimated about the same percentage of the 1,300 regular attendees also were impacted.

Meanwhile, Mr. Obama, who is in Martha’s Vineyard, took a break from his vacation only to hold a fundraiser on Monday for Hillary Clinton, the Democratic presidential candidate. Mrs. Clinton tweeted out about the devastation while she herself took a day off from the campaign.

[brid video=”59687″ player=”2077″ title=”Raw Trump Visits FloodRavaged Louisiana”]

Donald Trump and Gov. Mike Pence toured

[brid video=”59692″ player=”2077″ title=”Louisiana Flood Victims to Trump “We Knew You Would Be Here for Us!””]

Donald Trump received a warm welcome from Louisiana flood victims as he toured the devastation in Baton Rouge with Indiana Gov. Mike Pence.

As a result of the devastating flood in Louisiana and Mississippi, more than 80,000 people have sighed up for assistance from the Federal Emergency Management Agency. The flood waters destroyed 40,000 homes and killed 13 people this week.

“We knew you would be here, Mr. Trump,” one woman yells to the candidate. “We knew you would be here for us!”

“We’re glad you aren’t playing golf,” another person yells out. President Barack Obama was playing golf yesterday with ‘Seinfeld’ creator Larry David on his vacation in Martha’s Vineyard. He took a break from his time off to hold a fundraiser for Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton, who tweeted out about the devastation while she herself took a day off.

“Mr. Trump! Thank you so much. We love you,” yet another person shouts out, as the New York businessman signs hats. He and Gov. Pence handed out supplies and aide.

(Via Live Satellite News)

Donald Trump received a warm welcome from Louisiana

Hillary Clinton, left speaks in Warren, Michigan on August 11, while Donald Trump, right, speaks to supporters at the Charlotte Convention Center in North Carolina on August 19, 2016. (Photos: AP)
Hillary Clinton, left speaks in Warren, Michigan on August 11, while Donald Trump, right, speaks to supporters at the Charlotte Convention Center in North Carolina on August 19, 2016. (Photos: AP)

(Editor’s Note: I’ve been waiting for two things to happen before writing this article–for the media expectation game to get as dramatically one-sided as it is now–and, for what I saw in North Carolina last night. The candidate who won the Republican primary started acting like a general election candidate. Like him, love him or hate him, Donald Trump is a unique candidate.

As I’ve said since the primary, Mr. Trump can either win big or lose big because he breaks convention wisdom. His support is attitudinal, not constrained to traditional theories and demographic patterns. But it’s up to him whether or not he takes advantage of that unique political advantage.)

To be clear, we view Hillary Clinton as the favorite in the fall for the first time this cycle, but despite media-fueled expectations and assuming his pivot doesn’t turn into a 15-minute break before again getting off message, Donald Trump can still defeat Hillary Clinton in November and become the next President of the United States.

The Polls

Let’s take the number one argument, which basically holds that no candidate down in the polls by this margin at this time has gone on to win in November. On Bill O’Reilly Thursday night, former Bush White House press secretary Dana Perino said “the state of the GOP race right now is really bad.”

“No candidate who has ever been this far behind in August has gone on to win,” she added.

I applaud Ms. Perino for calling the race how she sees it. I want to believe the Trump-Bush feud has nothing to do with it, though I’m sure many of you will point out she had no problem”un-skewing the polls” for Gov. Mitt Romney. Nevertheless, I’m going to stick to the fact that the assertion she made, which has been echoed repeatedly this week, is flimsy at best.

Analysis comparing polling data from past elections is the same as comparing apples to oranges. I understand we simply have no choice but to do so, but statistically speaking, you cannot make any comparison between Gallup polling and do so with any degree of certainty. There are many more pollsters in 2016 than in 1948 and they are generally less accurate.

Even if we compared historical Gallup polling data to the umpteen polls released in 2016, the assumption really doesn’t hold up to scrutiny. In 1948, Thomas Dewey had an even larger lead than Mrs. Clinton has now over Mr. Trump, a lead that continued right up until Election Day. Yet, the polls were off by a whopping 10-point spread.

MonthHarry Truman (D) %Thomas Dewey (R) %Henry Wallace (Progressive) %Strom Thurmond (Dixiecrat) %
August/September37%48%4%2%
36%49%5%3%
39%47%3%2%
39%47%3%2%
40%46%4%2%
October/November45%50%4%2%
Actual result50%45%2%2%
Difference between actual result and final poll+5%-5%-2%0%

In 1960, Richard Nixon began the month of August with roughly the same lead Mrs. Clinton now holds over Mr. Trump, yet he lost it and the election. Worth noting, it was Mr. Nixon who was running as the third-term predecessor like Mrs. Clinton. If polling data and the historical record tell us anything, it’s that the Republican candidate can win if he rights the ship before or shortly after Labor Day.

MonthJohn F. Kennedy (D) %Richard Nixon (R) %
August/September44%50%
47%47%
48%47%
46%47%
October/November49%46%
49%45%
51%49%
Actual result50%50%
Difference between actual result and final poll-1%+1%

We could do this all day by picking a month and trying to find a correlation, which is why our research generally holds to the wisdom Labor Day is the beginning of the critical period. What we are hearing are cherry-picked talking points pretending to be data sets, which is what Karl Rove did in 2012.

In an interview with Megyn Kelly, Mr. Rove touted Gov. Romney’s lead in the Gallup poll, claiming that “no candidate who has led in mid-October with 50 percent or more in the likely voter poll has ever gone on to lose.“ Gov. Romney also held a 7-point lead in the Investors Business Daily Tracking poll and by 4 points in the Pew Research poll.

How did that turn out? Coincidentally, Mr. Trump trails in the Pew poll by the exact same margin.

In 1988, George H. W. Bush, another third-term incumbent, was down by a significant double-digit margin leading up to the month of August and only closed the gap enough to trail by roughly 7 points (basically where we are now) by the end of the month. Soon-to-be President George H. W. Bush didn’t even take the lead until almost mid-September. In this example, we’re going to show the month of July just to make a point.

MonthGeorge H. W. Bush (R) %Michael Dukakis (D) %
July41%47%
37%54%
August42%49%
September49%41%
47%42%
October50%40%
November56%44%
Actual result53%46%
Difference between actual result and final poll-3%+2%

As you can see, Gov. Michael Dukakis actually widened his lead over then-Vice President Bush in the month of August. He enjoyed a margin far larger than Mrs. Clinton holds over Mr. Trump.

In 2000, when another third-term incumbent was running against an insurgent Republican (he was also America First before Neocon), he was down by large margins in the month of August and, though he went on to lose, the polls were grossly inaccurate. In fact, to this very day many analysts believe he didn’t lose. I’m not one of them, but you get the point. Let’s again go back to August, but notice how large Vice President Al Gore led then-Gov. George Bush in September and October.

MonthGeorge W. Bush (R) %Al Gore (D) %Ralph Nader (Green) %
April47%41%4%
May   
August54%37%4%
55%39%2%
46%47%3%
46%45%3%
September44%47%3%
46%45%2%
42%49%3%
41%49%4%
42%49%2%
41%49%3%
44%48%2%
41%51%3%
42%50%2%
47%44%2%
46%44%2%
46%44%3%
45%45%4%
October41%49%2%
40%51%2%
48%41%4%
50%42%4%
45%45%2%
45%45%3%
48%43%2%
47%44%3%
51%40%4%
44%46%4%
49%42%3%
52%39%4%
49%42%3%
47%44%3%
47%43%4%
November47%43%4%
48%46%4%
Actual result48%^48%^^3%
Difference between actual result and final poll0%+2%-1%

Mr. Bush was actually trailing Mr. Gore by a larger margin than seen here in several other polls. But you get the drift. The claim made by Ms. Perino and others doesn’t really hold up to scrutiny when historical data is examined carefully and it definitely doesn’t hold up when you compare elections that are at least more similiar than others, which brings me to my next point.

Volatility & Fundamentals

I thought we learned during the primary that this election isn’t like other elections, but I guess I was wrong. Likability, trustworthiness and competence are turning out to play a larger role than anticipated and potentially why this election season has an unusually high number of persuadable and undecided voters. America is simply too polarized to see a Johnson- or Nixon- or Reagan-like landslide. What I think is really happening is that Mr. Trump has begun what was inevitable–a political realignment.

The question is whether he can complete it before voters take to the polls. George W. Bush did with the old Perot Coalition in 2000, but it was in the making long before he decided to run for president. Win or lose, the Republican Party, much to the chagrin of the old guard, will never be the same after Mr. Trump. But if he wants to win he has to do something every other successful presidential candidate has done–convince voters you have the temperament to do the job.

In truth, considering the spending and coverage disparity in this election, I’d expect to see Mrs. Clinton with a much larger lead than she has now. Mr. Trump is just now getting on the airwaves, while Mrs. Clinton has been hammering away at him for weeks and spent millions upon millions of dollars. The reason she isn’t is because his message is a winning, more potent message–outsider change vs. the corrupt status quo–and voters just need to feel comfortable with the messenger.

There is also the chance of an October surprise, which we have basically been promised by WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange. The Federal Bureau of Investigation continues to investigate the Clinton Foundation and is actively trying to circumvent the Obama Justice Department in D.C. in order to move forward with the U.S. District Attorney in New York. I personally believe Mrs. Clinton is above the law, but that doesn’t prohibit damaging information indicting her at the ballot box.

A Warning About Polls & “Forecasters”

Only a few weeks before the election, The Fix at The Washington Post–the same publication who has yet to discipline one of their reporters for writing whatever the DNC told him to write–proclaimed “Democrats now have a 51 percent chance of holding the Senate.” To describe the change in probability, Mr. Cillizza ironically said it was “huge,” and fueled by polling numbers for senators who went on to lose.

Let’s look at one of those races.

Chris Cillizza, citing all the “major” polls, “reported” the Washington Post “Election Lab” on August 27 concluded “Sen. Mark Udall (D) had a 64 percent chance of winning.” In late September, when Mr. Cillizza was writing his update, he “reported” Sen. Udall “has a 94 percent chance.”

Well, Sen. Udall is now Mr. Udall and Rep. Cory Gardner is now Sen. Cory Gardner, despite his rhetoric on immigration, abortion and hailing from Colorado, the only battleground state where the share of the Hispanic vote is more than the national average. As I explained after the election, Sen. Gardner won because he won, not because Hispanics didn’t show up to the polls.

Nate Silver, who gave Mr. Trump a 5% chance of winning the Republican nomination, is wrong more than he’s right. I dealt with that recently and don’t feel like repeating myself. But they were all wrong in 2014 and have yet to adequately explain the disparity between their rantings and reality.

Do you know who wasn’t? Take a guess.

Though still the underdog, polling data and

Trump Campaign Chairman Paul Manafort talks to delegates as he walks around the convention floor at the Quicken Loans Arena in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo: AP)

Trump Campaign Chairman Paul Manafort talks to delegates as he walks around the convention floor at the Quicken Loans Arena in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo: AP)

BREAKING: Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump accepted the resignation of Paul Manafort, his former campaign manager and chairman on Friday. The development comes after a shakeup put Breitbart News executive Stephen Bannon as the campaign’s chief and pollsters and advisor Kellyanne Conway campaign manager.

“This morning Paul Manafort offered, and I accepted, his resignation from the campaign,” Mr. Trump said in a statement. “I am very appreciative for his great work in helping to get us where we are today, and in particular his work guiding us through the delegate and convention process. Paul is a true professional and I wish him the greatest success.”

The shakeup earlier in the week was thought to be a move away from a more conventional, softer tone campaign. However, during an event in North Carolina on Thursday, Mr. Trump offered an apology to those he might’ve offended by his past statements, reached out to minorities with a more inclusive message and gave what many said was the best speech of the 2016 presidential election.

Mr. Trump cancelled scheduled campaign events to head to Louisiana, where the worse flooding since Hurricane Katrina has displaced thousands of Americans.

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump accepted the

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