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Elections

Bernie Sanders stands at the podium on stage during a walk through before the start of the Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania on July 25, 2016. (Photo: SS)
Bernie Sanders stands at the podium on stage during a walk through before the start of the Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania on July 25, 2016. (Photo: SS)

The Democratic National Committee (DNC) is moving to prevent Bernie Sanders from winning the nomination and to prop up billionaire Michael Bloomberg. Senator Sanders has been surging both nationally and in the early states, while Joe Biden has struggled.

One action to propel Michael Bloomberg and to head off Bernie will take effect immediately. The other action—to deny him the nomination at a brokered convention—is being privately discussed and proponents are testing the waters.

DNC Changes Debate Criteria

The DNC on Friday dropped the donor threshold for the senate in Nevada on February 19. Mr. Bloomberg is refusing to accept donations to his campaign, a decision disqualifying him from all debates.

“To now change the rules in the middle of the game to accommodate Mike Bloomberg, who is trying to buy his way into the Democratic nomination, is wrong. That’s the definition of a rigged system,” said Jeff Weaver, a senior adviser to Sanders’s campaign.

The Bloomberg campaign unsurprisingly said it was “thrilled” with the last-minute change in the criteria. While the former mayor of New York City has not yet met the polling threshold for the debate, national polls conducted by big media continue to find a slow but steady rise.

The DNC defended the decision, arguing that the initial donor criteria was meant to gauge grassroots enthusiasm, and it will now be measured by the voting.

“The donor threshold was appropriate for the opening stages of the race, when candidates were building their organizations and there were no metrics available outside of polling to distinguish those making progress from those who weren’t,” DNC spokesperson Adrienne Watson said in a statement.

Stopping Bernie at Convention

The leftwing D.C. magazine Politico reported a small but influential group of DNC members are gauging support for a plan to hinder Senator Sanders at a brokered convention, even in the event he arrives with the most delegates.

The policy reversal would allow so-called superdelegates to vote on the first ballot at the party’s national convention. It would reduce the influence of the voters and shift power to members of the committee, lawmakers and other top officials.

Currently, superdelegates must wait until the second ballot to be able to cast their vote.

DNC Chairman Tom Perez strongly pushed back against the plan, though didn’t deny that it is being circulated. Exactly how much control of the committee is dis

“Absolutely not. We put in the work to ensure power was returned to the grassroots, we will be following the rules set forth by the DNC,” Chairman Perez said. “We will not bend on this, we will not change our rules.”

Déjà Vu: No Bern for You

The developments have sparked outrage among supporters of Sanders Sanders on the ground, harkening back to 2016. The anti-secrecy group WikiLeaks confirmed their suspicions releasing thousands of emails and documents showing the DNC and media favored Hillary Clinton.

The Democratic establishment and media collaborated to handicap the content in favor of Mrs. Clinton, the eventual failed 2016 nominee. Donna Brazil, the interim chair of the DNC, leaked debate questions while at CNN to the Clinton campaign.

Mrs. Clinton recently attacked Senator Sanders in an upcoming documentary, saying “nobody likes him” and that he’s “a career politician.” The failed 2016 nominee later refused to say whether she would endorse her former rival if he wins the 2020 Democratic nomination.

While she backpedaled on endorsing after receiving widespread blowback, the message came across loud and clear.

The Democratic National Committee (DNC) is moving

Elections

Trump Received 1,493,455 Individual Donations, 98.78% ‘Low-Dollar’ Averaging $40.87

Supporters of President Donald Trump hold up Make America Great American and Keep America Great signs A supporter of Donald Trump dons a T-shirt with a new twist on an old joke targeting Hillary Clinton during a rally in Tampa, Florida on Tuesday, July 31, 2018. (Photo: Laura Baris/People's Pundit Daily)
Supporters of President Donald Trump hold up Make America Great American and Keep America Great signs A supporter of Donald Trump dons a T-shirt with a new twist on an old joke targeting Hillary Clinton during a rally in Tampa, Florida on Tuesday, July 31, 2018. (Photo: Laura Baris/People’s Pundit Daily)

The Trump Campaign and Republican National Committee (RNC) raised a total $155.2 million in the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2019. The three entities for the president and RNC raised $463.5 million in 2019 and have $195.9 million cash on hand.

That exceeds the $125.7 million and $105 million hauls brought in by the same entities in Q3 and Q2 2019, respectively.

“Americans are embracing President Trump’s clear record of accomplishment on behalf of this country and they are financially supporting his re-election in record-breaking fashion,” Brad Parscale, the president’s campaign manager, said.

“These resources will be put to effective use as the President mounts an aggressive campaign from coast to coast as he powers to re-election.”

In Q4 2019, Donald J. Trump for President received 1,493,455 individual donations, of which 98.78 percent were “low-dollar” contributions. Low-dollar contributions are defined as $200 or less, and are indicative of grassroots enthusiasm and working-class support.

The average donation of $40.87.

The Trump Campaign and Republican National Committee

Economy

Gains in Consumers’ Personal Finances Highest in Half Century, Matching 2018-2019 Averages

The Survey of Consumers final Consumer Sentiment Index for January inched even higher from 99.3 in December to 99.8, beating the consensus forecast and an improvement from the preliminary reading.

Forecasts for the Consumer Sentiment Index ranged from a low of 99.0 to a high of 100.0. The consensus forecast was 99.1, marring the preliminary reading released mid-month.

“The resilience of consumers is remarkable and due to record low unemployment, record gains in income and wealth, as well as near record lows in inflation and interest rates,” Surveys of Consumers chief economist, Richard Curtin said.

“Gains in personal finances were reported by 53% of all consumers in January, exactly equal to the 2018 and 2019 averages—the highest two years in the past half century.”

The Current Economic Conditions fell slightly from 115.5 in December and 115.8 in the preliminary reading to 114.4 in January. The Index of Consumer Expectations rose slightly from 88.9 last month and from the preliminary reading of 88.3 to 90.5.

That’s a reversal from the preliminary readings for both subindexes.

Combined net changes in household income and wealth were cited in 40% of all mentions in January, comparable only to the 1966 and 2000 peaks).

The data currently point toward consumer spending maintaining positive growth in the economy as a whole.

Nonetheless, as the presidential primaries begin, consumers will have to evaluate the impact on their own finances from the range of fundamental changes in tax and spending programs advocated by the various candidates,” Mr. Curtain added.

The preliminary reading for the Survey of Consumers Consumer Sentiment Index is scheduled to be released on Friday, February 14, 2020 at 10:00 AM EST.

The final Consumer Sentiment Index for January

Economy

Personal Income Gains Offset By Department of Agriculture Subsidy for Farmers

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported personal income rose $40.7 billion (0.2 percent) in December, just below the consensus forecast. The gain was primarily driven by wages and salaries, but offset by farm proprietors’ income.

Forecasts ranged from a low of 0.1% to a high of 0.4%. The consensus forecast was 0.3%. Person income rose by a revised 0.4% in November.

Farm proprietors’ income fell $36.2 billion in December, largely the result of a decrease in subsidy payments from the Department of Agriculture’s Market Facilitation Program. That partially offset gains in employee compensation and personal interest income.

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE)

Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) rose $6.8 billion. That reflects a gain of $2.5 billion in spending on goods and a $4.4 billion increase in spending on services. 

Personal Outlays and Personal Saving

Personal outlays rose $51.5 billion in December.

Personal saving was $1.28 trillion in December and the personal saving rate, personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income, was 7.6 percent (table 1).

Personal income rose $40.7 billion (0.2%) in

Economy

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported the advance estimate for fourth-quarter (Q4) 2019 gross domestic product (GDP) came in at 2.1%, a solid rate of growth that hit the consensus forecast.

Forecasts ranged from a low of 1.5% to a high of 2.5%. The consensus forecast was 2.1%.

In Q3 2019, Real GDP also rose by 2.1% and, if the advance estimate holds until the third, Real GDP would come in at 2.3% annual-to-annual. However, the advance GDP estimate is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency.

The “second” estimate for Q4, which is based on more complete data, is scheduled to be released on February 27, 2020.

Personal Income

Current-dollar personal income rose $148.7 billion in Q4 2019, solid but down slightly from an increase of $162.6 billion in Q3. Worth noting, working Americans weren’t driving the smaller increase. In fact, worker compensation helped to offset declines among wealthier Americans.

It was due to a decline in proprietors’ income, personal current transfer receipts, and personal dividend income, which were partly offset by a smaller decrease in personal interest income and an acceleration in compensation.

Disposable personal income rose 3.1% or $127.4 billion in Q4 2019. That comes after an increase of $179.5 billion, or 4.5% in Q3. Real disposable personal income rose 1.5% versus 2.9% the prior quarter.

Personal saving was $1.29 trillion in Q4, compared with $1.30 trillion in Q3. The personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 7.7% in Q4, slightly down from 7.8% in Q3.

The advance estimate for fourth-quarter (Q4) 2019

Economy

Unemployment Insurance, Weekly Jobless Claims, Continue to Show Tight Labor Market

The U.S. Labor Department (DOL) reported initial jobless claims fell 7,000 to a seasonally adjusted 216,000 for the week ending January 25, matching the consensus forecast. The previous week’s level was revised higher by 12,000 to 223,000.

Forecasts ranged from a low of 213,000 to a high of 216,000. The consensus forecast was 215,000.

The 4-week moving average was 214,500, a decrease of 1,750 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was also revised up by 3,000 from 213,250 to 216,250.

Lagging Jobless Claims Data

U.S. initial jobless claims graph on a tablet screen. (Photo: AdobeStock)
U.S. initial jobless claims graph on a tablet screen. (Photo: AdobeStock)

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was unchanged at a very low 1.2% for the week ending January 18.

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during that week was 1,703,000, a decrease of 44,000. The previous week’s level was revised up 16,000 from 1,731,000 to 1,747,000.

The 4-week moving average was 1,755,500, an increase of just 6,250. The previous week’s average was revised up by 4,000 from 1,757,750 to 1,761,750.

No state was triggered “on” the Extended Benefits program during the week ending January 4, the Labor Department said.

State Jobless Claims Data

The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending January 11 were in Alaska (3.2), New Jersey (2.7), Connecticut (2.6), Puerto Rico (2.6), West Virginia (2.6), Montana (2.5), Pennsylvania (2.5), Illinois (2.3), Rhode Island (2.3), California (2.2), and Minnesota (2.2).

The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending January 18 were in California (+12,865), Puerto Rico (+2,288), Illinois (+2,104), Kansas (+262), and Vermont (+106), while the largest decreases were in Pennsylvania (-10,138), Georgia (-9,801), Texas (-6,119), Missouri (-5,975), and New York (-5,491).

Initial jobless claims fell 7,000 to a

Politics

Bolton Interview Contradicts Insinuations in ‘Bombshell’ Manuscript

In August 2019, John Bolton said President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky (Zelenskyy) had “warm and cordial” phone calls, and specifically referenced concern over “corruption.” His remarks contradict the inference in a so-called “bombshell” report published by The New York Times.

We’ll be meeting President Zelensky. He and President Trump have already spoken twice. The president called to congratulate President Zelensky on his election and then on his success in the parliamentary election. They were very warm and cordial calls. We’re hoping they’ll be able to meet in Warsaw for a few minutes together.

Because the success of Ukraine maintaining its freedom, its system of representative government, a free market economy free of corruption, and dealing with the problems of the Donbas and Crimea are high priorities here obviously but high priorities for the United States.

John Bolton, August 2019

Just as the impeachment trial appeared to be headed for a quick bipartisan acquittal in the U.S. Senate, The Times reported Mr. Bolton’s unpublished manuscript claimed the president “wanted” to freeze $391 million in security assistance to Ukraine “until officials there helped with investigations into Democrats including the Bidens”.

It further claimed the president “preferred sending no assistance to Ukraine until officials had turned over all materials they had about the Russia investigation that related to Mr. Biden and supporters of Mrs. Clinton in Ukraine.”

Despite the use of the word “preferred,” big media declared it evidence that the aid was conditioned on investigations, which are obfuscated to appear like a request “to dig up dirt” on a political opponent.

Ambassador John Bolton addresses the Republican Jewish Coalition in Las Vegas, Nevada, in April 2017. (Photo: Reuters)
Ambassador John Bolton addresses the Republican Jewish Coalition in Las Vegas, Nevada, in April 2017. (Photo: Reuters)

Nevertheless, the conversation allegedly transpired around the same time Mr. Bolton gave that interview, though The New York Times didn’t obtain an actual copy of the manuscript.

Yevegeny Vindman, the identical twin brother of Lt. Col. Alexander Vindman, is a senior ethics lawyer for the National Security Council (NSC) in charge of reviewing all publications by current and former officials.

The latter Vindman, one of Democrats’ key witnesses in the impeachment of President Trump, is suspected of being the individual who leaked to the anonymous “whistleblower” who sparked impeachment.

The complaint surrounded a telephone conversation between President Trump and President Zelensky from July 25, 2019. The inquiry was announced before the president declassified and released the unredacted transcript of the conversation.

Nevertheless, the interview raises questions about the veracity of the claims in the unpublished manuscript, just as a growing chorus of voices accuse Mr. Bolton of being vindictive and hyping for book sales.

A 2010 interview with Andrew Napolitano on Fox Business Channel is also receiving renewed scrutiny. He said that he would “absolutely” lie to the public if he believed it necessary or on behalf of national security.

“A diplomat is a statesman sent out to lie for his country,” he said before touting his ability to “spin” information without technically lying.

In March 2018, Mr. Bolton was appointed to replace General H.R. McMaster as national security advisor. In September, just one month after the newly uncovered interview, President Trump announced he fired Mr. Bolton over strong disagreements on a range of issues.

A White House official at the time told People’s Pundit Daily (PPD) the differences on issues, particularly Afghanistan and Iran, were just too great.

In August 2019, John Bolton said Presidents

Politics

With USMCA, Trump Delivers on Major Campaign Promise, Secures Biggest Bipartisan Achievement for Presidency

President Donald J. Trump signed the United States-Mexico-Canada Trade Agreement (USMCA) at the White House on Wednesday, delivering on a major campaign promise in bipartisan fashion.

“Today, we’re finally ending the NAFTA nightmare and signing into law the brand-new U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement,” the president said. “The USMCA is the largest, fairest, most balanced, and modern trade agreement ever achieved.”

“This is a colossal victory for our farmers, ranchers, energy workers, factory workers, and American workers in all 50 states and, you could almost say, beyond — because it’s all beyond. “

The USMCA is estimated to add another 1.2% to U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) and create tens of thousands of manufacturing jobs, alone.

“It will make our blue-collar boom — which is beyond anybody’s expectation — even bigger, stronger, and more extraordinary, delivering massive gains for the loyal citizens of our nation,” he added.

“For the first time in American history, we have replaced a disastrous trade deal that rewarded outsourcing with a truly fair and reciprocal trade deal that will keep jobs, wealth, and growth right here in America.”

“And, in a true sense, it’s also a partnership with Mexico and Canada and ourselves against the world.”

In 2016, the president made the renegotiating of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), and other trade deals, central to his campaign message. Fifty-one percent (51%) of likely voters in a recent poll favored the renegotiation of NAFTA, while just 35% opposed it. 

“We really put our heard and soul into this. It’s probably the number one reason why I decided to lead this crazy life,” he said in jest.

He noted how presidents have long campaigned on trade and promised to end the hollowing out of the manufacturing base in the Midwest and across the nation. But it never happened.

“They didn’t even give it a shot. They sold out,” President Trump said, also praising the Republican Party for changing course. “But I’m not like those other guys. I’m fighting for the American worker and everyone here is fighting for the American worker.”

Only two days after his inauguration, President Trump signed executive orders stating his intention to renegotiate NAFTA and withdraw from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). Promising to take those actions alone won him Rust Belt states no Republican had carried since the 1980s.

By April, the White House announced the president had already convinced Mexico to come back to the table to negotiate a new agreement.

In January, President Donald Trump’s approval among farmers ticked even higher to 83%, the highest level ever measured by the Farm Journal Pulse Poll. The percentage of farmers who “strongly approve” of the president’s job performance rose to 64% in January, up from 61% at the end of 2019.

Only 16% disapprove, down one point from December.

President Donald Trump—flanked by Vice President Mike Pence, business leaders and lawmakers—celebrating the signing the United States-Mexico-Canada Trade Agreement (USMCA) at the White House on Wednesday, January 29, 2020.
President Donald Trump—flanked by Vice President Mike Pence, business leaders and lawmakers—celebrating the signing the United States-Mexico-Canada Trade Agreement (USMCA) at the White House on Wednesday, January 29, 2020.

The new record comes as the president touts trade accomplishments promised during the 2016 campaign. The president negotiated and signed Phase One of the U.S.-China Trade Deal in mid-January.

“Thanks to your leadership Mr. President, the era of NAFTA ends today and new era of growth and jobs begins,”

Vice President Mike Pence said the era of NAFTA ends today and a new era of growth and jobs begins.” He thanked the president for challenging the party and the American people “to think about international trade in new ways.”

He added that he saw firsthand how NAFTA hollowed out communities and outsourced American jobs. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the vice president’s home state of Indiana alone lost roughly 18% of the manufacturing industry during the period 1994 to 2015, years impacted by NAFTA and the World Trade Organization.

Vice President Pence declared the days of hollowing out were over and touted gains already made in wages.

“Wages are rising across the board, but they’re rising the fastest among blue collar, hardworking Americans. As a son of the heartland, let me say, I couldn’t be more grateful.”

While Democrats delayed action on the trade deal to ensure total impact was not felt until after the 2020 president election, the signing of the United States-Mexico-Canada Trade Agreement (USMCA) is the biggest bipartisan achievement for the Trump Administration.

President Trump signed the United States-Mexico-Canada Trade

Economy

Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) Prior Revised Higher for November

The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) fell 4.9% to 103.2 in December, though year-over-year contract signings rose 4.6%. The PSHI for November was revised higher nationally and for 3 of 4 regions.

While all four regions saw declines in month-over-month contract activity, with the South posting the steepest fall, year-over-year pending home sales were up nationally compared to one year ago.

An index of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001. Forecasts for pending home sales (PHSI) ranged from a low of 0.0% to a high of 1.0%. The consensus forecast was 0.4%.

“Mortgage rates are expected to hold under 4% for most of 2020, while net job creation will likely exceed two million,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist.

While overall indicators are positive for the housing market, Mr. Yun expressed continued concern over low inventory. It remains a significant longer-term concern.

“Due to the shortage of affordable homes, home sales growth will only rise by around 3%,” he predicted. “Still, national median home price growth is in no danger of falling due to inventory shortages and will rise by 4%.”

“The new home construction market also looks brighter, with housing starts and new home sales set to rise 6% and 10%, respectively.”

In August, housing starts and building permits crushed the forecast for the new residential construction report. The fall maintained strength in what is a typically volatile report.

Housing starts and building permits came in much stronger than forecasts expected in October. In November, housing starts and building permits came in higher by 3.2% and 1.4%, respectively, both beating forecasts.

“The state of housing in 2020 will depend on whether home builders bring more affordable homes to the market,” Mr. Yun added. “Home prices and even rents are increasing too rapidly, and more inventory would help correct the problem and slow price gains.”

The PHSI in the Northeast fell 4.0% to 92.4 in December and is now 0.1% lower than a year ago. In the Midwest, the index fell 3.6% to 98.8, but is still 1.3% higher than in December 2018.

Pending home sales in the South were down 5.5% to an index reading of 118.1, which is still 7.4% higher than December 2018. The index in the West declined 5.4% to 93.1, an increase of 7.0% from a year ago.

The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) fell

Economy

GDP Rankings By State for Q3 2019 Driven By Manufacturing

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Texas led the nation in gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the third quarter (Q3) of 2019, according to GDP rankings by state from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Real GDP rose in 49 states and the District of Columbia (DC) in Q3 2019, ranging from a high of 4.0% in Texas to a low of 0.0% in Delaware.

The primary drivers of GDP growth nationwide for the quarter were nondurable goods manufacturing; retail trade; and professional, scientific, and technical services. Manufacturing, particularly nondurable goods, rose 10.1% for the nation and contributed to economic growth in all 50 states.

Unsurprisingly, the nondurable goods manufacturing industry was the leading contributor to growth in Texas.

Retail trade gained 8.2% nationwide. The industry contributed to growth in all 50 states and District of Columbia (DC). Professional, scientific, and technical services rose 5.6% for the nation, also contributing to growth in all 50 states and the District of Columbia (DC).

The finance and insurance industry fell 5.3% nationwide, slicing a piece of GDP growth in all 50 states and the District of Columbia (DC). This industry was the leading contributor to slow growth in New York and in Delaware, among the slowest and the slowest states ranked at 47 and 50, respectively.

West Virginia, which led the nation in Real GDP growth for Q1 2019 at 5.2%, fell all the way to Rank 48. Utah, which grew at or above 3% for three straight quarters (3.2%), came in at Rank 2.

Texas led the nation in economic growth

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