Durable Goods Orders Rose Nearly 5X the Consensus Forecast
The U.S. Census Bureau reported new orders for manufactured durable goods gained 2.4%, or $5.7 billion to $245.5 billion in December. That’s nearly five times the consensus forecast, and helped outweighs the downward revision in November.
Forecasts for new orders ranged from a low of 3.5% to a high of 2.5%. The consensus forecast was 0.5%, a still solid but far less gain.
While November was revised to -3.1%, new orders for durable goods are up two of the last three months.
Middle East Peace Plan Proposes Roadmap to Palestinian State With Capital in East Jerusalem, U.S. Embassy
On Tuesday, President Donald Trump unveiled his Middle East peace plan at the White House on Tuesday, a roadmap to a two-state solution for Israel and Palestine.
“Today, Israel takes a big step toward peace,” the president said. “Young people across the Middle East are ready for a more hopeful future, and leaders are realizing that Islamic terrorism and extremism is everyone’s common enemy.”
In the Middle East peace plan, the United States will recognize Israeli settlements on the West Bank. In exchange, Israel would agree to a four-year freeze on new settlements while Palestinian statehood is negotiated.
The entire plan is roughly 80 pages, 50 of them a political plan announced on Tuesday and 30 an economic plan announced last July. The latter sets up a $50 billion economic revival plan for Palestinians, Jordan and Egypt.
“I was saddened by the prospect of the Palestinians,” President Trump said. “They deserve a better future, a better life.”
The president has long-wanted to revive peace talks, which broke down in 2014. The proposal—which represents the most detailed attempt to break the deadlock in decades—is the result of a 3-year effort led by senior advisers Jared Kushner and Avi Berkowitz, as well as former adviser Jason Greenblatt.
“I was not elected to do small things or shy away from big problems,” the president added. “It’s been a long and very arduous process to arrive at this moment.”
He said past proposals were light on factual details and heavy on intangible and unrealistic principles. The White House said it balances Israel’s security needs with Palestine’s desire for statehood.
“Crucially, the proposed transition to a two-state solution will include no incremental security risks to Israel,” the president added. “Peace requires compromise, but we will never ask Israel to compromise its security.”
It would double the size of the territory under Palestinian control and connect it all with roads, bridges and tunnels. While Jerusalem would remain Israel’s undivided capital, it would provide for a Palestinian capital “where America will proudly open an embassy,” the president said.
“I want this agreement to be a great deal for the Palestinians,” the president noted. :After 70 years of little progress, it could be the last opportunity for them.”
He trumpeted how the proposal would create a million new jobs in Palestine, cut their poverty rate in half and at least double their GDP. The goal would be to end Palestinian dependency on charity and foreign aid.
“They’ll be doing fine all by themselves,” President Trump said. “They’re a very capable people, and we will help by empowering Palestinians to thrive on their own.”
“We are asking the Palestinians to meet the challenges of peaceful co-existence.”
U.S. President Donald J. Trump, flanked by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, unveils his Middle East Peace Plan at the White House on Tuesday, January 28, 2020.
The president was joined by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his chief rival Benny Gantz to the White House. Prime Minister Netanyahu leads the rightwing Likud Party, while Mr. Gantz leads the leftwing Blue and White Party.
Nabil Abu Rudeineh, spokesman for Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, said earlier this week there could be no deal on a Middle East peace plan without “the approval of the Palestinian people and the Palestinian leadership”.
In his unveiling at the White House, President Trump spoke directly to Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas.
“I want you to do know that if you choose the path to peace, America will be there in so many ways, and we’ll be there every step of the way,” he vowed. “We will be there to help.”
He said President Abbas’ response will show the world what he is willing to do to lead the Palestinian people to statehood, adding that “America cannot care about peace more than the stakeholders in the region.”
“My vision will change that. Our majestic Biblical heritage will be able to live, breathe and flourish in the modern era,” the president said in conclusion, adding they “should not be symbols of conflict, but eternal symbols of peace.”
“Together we can bring about a new dawn in the Middle East.”
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu
Prime Minister Netanyahu called the plan a “realistic path to a durable peace.” He echoed the president’s sentiment about previous plans, which he said “failed because they didn’t strike the right balance between Israel’s security concerns and Palestinians desire for statehood.”
“This is a historic day and it recalls another historic day,” Prime Minister Netanyahu said. “We remember May 14, 1948, because on that day President Truman became the first world leader to recognize the state of Israel.”
“I believe that down the decades and even the centuries we will also remember because on this day you because the first world leader to recognize areas in Judea and Samaria that are vital to our security and essential to our national heritage.”
Challenges to Mideast Peace
Among the most sticky points is the recognition of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and the moving of the U.S. Embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem.
In 1995, Congress passed The Jerusalem Embassy and Relocation Act, which addresses both of those issues. Waivers are permitted by presidents in the event national security is a concern, which President Trump signed in June 2017.
It did little sway minds in Palestine.
In December 2017, the president made the “historic decision” to recognize Jerusalem as the capital of Israel. In the announcement, he said the move was “long overdue” and “the right thing to do,” adding that Israel “like every other sovereign nation has the right to determine its capital.”
In January 2018, former Secretary of State John Kerry met in London with Hussein Agha, a close associate of Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas. He told him President Trump would be removed from office within a year, and not to enter into Mideast peace talks.
Local Business Conditions Posted Largest Increase Since February 2013
The Richmond Fed Fifth District Manufacturing Survey rebounded in January after two negative readings, with the composite index jumping from -5 to 20. All three components — shipments, new orders, and employment — increased.
The forecasts for the composite index in the Fifth District Manufacturing Survey ranged from a low of -2 to a high of 9. The consensus forecast was only 5.
The index for local businesses posted largest increase since February 2013. While manufacturers were optimistic that conditions would continue to strengthen in the next six months and wages and employment are expected to continue to grow, firms continued to struggle to find workers with the necessary skills.
The skills gap has been a consistent issue in the tight labor market under the Trump Administration.
Manufacturing Export Wooden Crate, reading Made in Virginia. 3D Illustration for Fifth District Manufacturing Survey for the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. (Photo: AdobeStock)
Nevertheless, the Richmond Fed Fifth District Manufacturing Survey is the latest indicator of regional factory activity suggesting growth picked up in January across the country.
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey continued to rebound this month, inching 1.3 higher in January to beat the consensus forecast at 4.8. The Philadelphia Fed’s Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey rose 15 points in January to 17, nearly six times the consensus forecast.
The Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey indicates statewide factory activity accelerated significantly in January, beating the consensus forecast. The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas saidthe key production index, which measures statewide manufacturing conditions, gained 7 points to 10.5.
Learn more about the Richmond Fed Fifth District Manufacturing Survey, here.
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indexes (HPI) continued to show an upward trend for home prices in November, and year-over-year, beating the forecast. The 20-City Composite posted a 0.5% monthly gain and a 2.6% year-over-year gain, up from 2.2% in the previous month.
Forecasts for the 20-City ranged from a low of 0.3% to 0.4%. The consensus forecast was 0.4%.
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, which covers all nine U.S. census divisions, posted a 3.5% annual gain in November, up from 3.2% in the previous month.
The 10-City Composite posted a 2.0% annual increase, up from 1.7% in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a 2.6% year-over-year gain, up from 2.2% in the previous month.
“The U.S. housing market was stable in November,” Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director and Global Head of Index Investment Strategy at S&P Dow Jones Indices, said. “With the month’s 3.5% increase in the national composite index, home prices are currently 59% above the trough reached in February 2012, and 15% above their pre-financial crisis peak.”
“November’s results were broad-based, with gains in every city in our 20-city composite.”
Phoenix, Charlotte and Tampa led the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City with the highest year-over-year. In November, Phoenix posted a 5.9% year-over-year price gain, followed by Charlotte at 5.2% and Tampa at 5.0%. Fifteen of the 20 cities reported greater price increases in the year ending November 2019 versus the year ending October 2019.
“At a regional level, Phoenix retains the top spot for the sixth consecutive month, with a gain of 5.9% for November,” Mr. Lazzara noted. “Charlotte and Tampa rose by 5.2% and 5.0% respectively, leading the Southeast region. The Southeast has led all regions since January 2019.”
Consumer confidence 3D gear graphic reporting the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index.
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index jumped in January from upwardly revised 128.2 to 131.6, beating the consensus forecast. The forecasts ranged from a low of 126.0 to a high of 132.0, the consensus being 128.2.
“Consumer confidence increased in January, following a moderate advance in December, driven primarily by a more positive assessment of the current job market and increased optimism about future job prospects,” said Lynn Franco, Senior Director, Economic Indicators, at The Conference Board. “Optimism about the labor market should continue to support confidence in the short-term and, as a result, consumers will continue driving growth and prevent the economy from slowing in early 2020.”
The Present Situation Index—which gauges consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—rose from 170.5 to 175.3. The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business and labor market conditions—increased from 100.0 last month to 102.5 this month.
Current Conditions
Those claiming business conditions are “good” rose from 39.0% to 40.8%, while those claiming business conditions are “bad” fell from 11.0% to 10.4%.
Job Market
The percentage reporting jobs are “plentiful” rose from 46.5% to 49.0%, while those claiming jobs are “hard to get” fell from 13.0% to 11.6%.
Short-Term Outlook
The percentage of consumers expecting business conditions will improve over the next six months was virtually unchanged at 18.8%. Those expecting business conditions will worsen fell marginally from 8.8% to 8.4%.
Consumers’ Outlook for Labor Market
The percentage expecting more jobs in the months ahead rose from 15.5% to 17.2%, while those anticipating fewer jobs fell slightly from 13.9% to 13.4%.
For short-term income prospects, the percentage of consumers expecting an improvement fell slightly from 22.7% to 22.0%, while the percentage expecting a decrease was roughly unchanged at 7.7%.
The monthly Consumer Confidence Survey is based on a probability-design random sample and is conducted for The Conference Board by Nielsen. The Conference Board publishes the Consumer Confidence Index® at 10 a.m. ET on the last Tuesday of every month.
Longstanding Public Charge Denies Green Cards for Likely Social Welfare Recipients
The U.S. Supreme Court ruled 5 to 4 to allow the Trump Administration to enforce longstanding policy to deny green cards to immigrants deemed likely to receive social welfare. Those who are found likely to become dependent on public benefits will also be barred from changing their immigration status.
In a brief order, the High Court put a lower court’s two rulings blocking enforcement on hold while the government appeals to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit in Manhattan, or if necessary, the U.S. Supreme Court.
In August 2018, the Trump Administration announced the enforcement of the public charge rule, which has been the law for decades. But New York led a few states and immigration groups in challenging the rule, suing the Department of Homeland Security (DHS).
A federal district court in New York issued a pair of rulings temporarily blocking enforcement. The government asked the High Court to lift the blocks, arguing it would suffer “effectively irreparable harm” if it could not implement the new rule while it appeals the orders.
Justice Neil Gorsuch issued a concurring opinion joined by Justice Clarence Thomas. He criticized district courts for issuing nationwide injunctions that “have little basis in traditional equitable practice” and “hardly seem an innovation we should rush to embrace,” because they “tend to force judges into making rushed, high-stakes, low-information decisions.”
The case will now head to one of the nation’s second highest courts. On November 14, the U.S. Senate approved a nominee to the Second Circuit, flipping the court from a Democratic- to a Republican-appointed majority.
The public charge rule has been on the books for decades. But the prohibition has long been ignored by politicians prioritizing cheap labor and future votes.
The Immigration Nationality Act (INA) enacted in 1952 prohibits the entry of those “likely at any time to become a public charge,” defined as an alien receiving public benefits above a certain threshold.
Any alien who, in the opinion of the consular officer at the time of application for a visa, or in the opinion of the Attorney General at the time of application for admission or adjustment of status, is likely at any time to become a public charge is inadmissible.
In 1996, the U.S. Congress passed the Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act and the Illegal Immigration Reform and Immigrant Responsibility Act. The latter declared immigrants should “not depend on public resources to meet their needs.”
Bill Clinton signed them into law. However, the public charge policy adopted by the INA and subsequent legislation has gone unenforced for many years.
According to the Center for Immigration Studies, 58% of non-citizen households receive welfare, including 31% who receive cash welfare. That compares to 30% and 19% of native households, respectively.
Compared to native households, non-citizen households have much higher use of food programs, 45% to 21%. The same is true for Medicaid at 50% to 23%, respectively.
The policy, which was scheduled to start in October, will be implemented immediately. Caseworkers will still have discretion.
Adam Schiff’s Credibility Is Key for Independents to Judge Donald Trump’s Guilt or Innocence
Representative Adam Schiff, D-Calif., speaks with reporters about the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence’s Russia investigation on Capitol Hill in Washington, U.S., March 30, 2017. (Photo: Reuters)
Democrats repeatedly proclaim that, “The evidence is overwhelming.” Republicans counter with, “There is zero evidence.”
The public believes whatever butters their ideological bread, but what about the independents—those rare Americans who are truly open to being swayed by listening to the facts and making an informed decision?
Since impeachment is political theatre, facts are not required to make the case. But to quote and old TV commercial the public is left with, “Where’s the beef?”
Many criminal trials involve conflicting witness testimony sometimes referred to as, “he said, she said,” cases. The jury must decide the guilt or innocence based on the credibility of the witnesses. Both sides attempt to tip the scales by adding miniscule weights.
How do we judge someone’s credibility?
For example, the prosecution and defense attorney’s call expert witnesses such as psychiatrists who evaluate the mental health of the same individual. Both doctors have similar academic backgrounds, journal publications, and years of experience, yet they come to a completely opposite diagnosis.
Who’s the jury to believe?
Credibility is often determined by your gut instinct or BS meter. We all have this internal instrument which pegs when listening to someone who is insincere, artificial or lacks conviction.
In the case of the impeachment trial, the primary witness for the prosecution is Congressman Adam Schiff. He has dominated the cameras with non-stop declarations of evidence against President Donald Trump. It’s Schiff’s burden to prove his case and failing to do so, the accused need not present a rebuttal or call a single witness.
The credibility of Adam Schiff is the key for independent Americans to judge President Donald Trump’s guilt or innocence. Let’s disregard Schiff’s bug-eyed hysterics or the fact that Hillary Clinton seems like a beacon of truth in comparison. The bottom line is that Adam Schiff’s integrity is as much on trial as President Donald Trump.
Mr. Schiff stated on numerous occasions that he possessed hard evidence of President Trump colluding with Russia to influence the 2016 election. The two-year Mueller investigation found that Schiff lied.
Mr. Schiff stated on September 17 that, “We have not spoken directly with the whistleblower. We would like to.”
Schiff lied.
Mr. Schiff stated as fact that that the DOJ/FBI never paid Steele for his research and services.
Schiff lied.
Mr. Schiff stated that the whistleblower—believed to Eric Ciaramella—is a hero. But Ciaramella is not considered a real whistleblower since he didn’t speak from firsthand knowledge. Real whistleblowers don’t hide their identities.
Schiff lied.
Mr. Schiff stated, “Our extensive review of the initial FISA application and three subsequent renewals failed to uncover any evidence of illegal, unethical, or unprofessional behavior by law enforcement and instead revealed that both the FBI and DOJ made extensive showings to justify all four requests.”
Schiff lied.
The Inspector General found significant evidence of unethical and unprofessional behavior.
Schiff should be held accountable for the devious means he used to drive impeachment. For example, on July 26, one day after Trump’s call with the Ukrainian president, Schiff hired Sean Misko, a friend of Eric Ciaramella. Within a few days, Schiff’s staff met with Ciaramella and provided “guidance” on how to make a complaint.
Can Schiff be punished for his lack of candor? Nope. Article I, Section 6, of the U.S. Constitution allows federal legislators to lie on the floor of the House or Senate minus any repercussions. He can slander, lie and make false accusations all day long from his perch minus any repercussions.
I understand that many of my liberal friends and some independents are countering with, “Trump lies.” He certainly lied about strippers and his golf game but it’s immaterial to this impeachment trial. He is the accused and the transcript of the call is essentially Trump’s testimony.
The impeachment trial is also a classic case of beltway delusion. This is an affliction where career politicians believe their words are divinely inspired. They stare earnestly at the camera while spewing lies. When caught in lies, politicians engage in a murky redefinition of words to launder their untruths.
I’ve always wondered if they believe their deceptions or that their arrogance makes them immune to reality. Have we reached a point in America when we can no longer distinguish the truth from a lie? Perhaps, or maybe it no longer matters since both sides accuse the other of lying and use lies to support their version of the truth.
It’s time for someone to demand, “Where’s the beef?”
New Orders Jump to 15-Month High, Uncertainty Falls to 20-Month Low
The Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey indicates statewide factory activity accelerated significantly in January, beating the consensus forecast. The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas said the key production index, which measures statewide manufacturing conditions, gained 7 points to 10.5.
The new orders index jumped 16 points to 17.6, the highest reading in 15 months. The growth rate of orders index also returned to positive territory, rising from -5.0 to 6.1. The capacity utilization and shipments indexes moved higher to 11.5 and 8.6, respectively.
The general business activity index came in at zero, with three-fourths of respondents noting no change this month and the rest split between improved and worsened activity.
Forecasts ranged from a low of -9.9 to a high of -1.0. The consensus forecast was -3.1.
The January company outlook index reading was 1.9 and the index measuring uncertainty relating to company outlook fell further to 2.7, a 20-month low.
The indexes of future general business activity and future company outlook rose moderately to 7.6 and 15.6, respectively.
New home sales came in at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 694,000 in December, a solid number that missed the consensus forecast. Various forecasts ranged from a low of 719,000 to a high of 745,000. The consensus forecast was 728,000.
The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development said that’s 0.4% (±15.1%) below the downwardly revised November rate of 697,000.
However, it’s still 23.0% (±20.0%) above the December 2018 estimate of 564,000. Further, an estimated 681,000 new homes were sold in 2019. This is 10.3% (±6.4%) above the 2018 figure of 617,000.
An exchange showing one hand giving cash to the another for new house and keys, a vector illustration for new home sales. (Photo: AdobeStock)
The median sales price of new houses sold in December 2019 was $331,400. The average sales price was $384,500. The seasonally‐adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of December was 327,000.
That represents a supply of 5.7 months at the current sales rate.
Florida Is Always Close, But Donald Trump Will Be Difficult to Beat
Voting, elections and state polls concept: Ballot box with state flag in the background – Florida. (Photo: AdobeStock)
Florida Republicans bucked the national trend in 2018. With a national mood favoring Democrats by 8.4 points, Republican candidates statewide held the governor’s mansion and defeated a three-term incumbent senator.
The PPD Election Projection Model rated Florida Slightly Republican, while big media competitors predicted a Democratic takeover in the gubernatorial election and a hold in the U.S. Senate.
Modeling indicates Donald Trump will be difficult to defeat in November in the Sunshine State. While it’s still early and the state is always close, the data trend indicates the president is favored to carry the state for a second time.
First, let’s take a look at the voter registration trends from 1972 to 2019. Then, we’ll take a look at voter file data, which is updated monthly, and also the machine-learning models.
Current Voter Registration Statistics
The latest month for which voter registration statistics were released by the Florida Department of State was December 2019. Democrats’ share of the overall electorate continued to decline. Republicans and all “Other” voters continued to increase as a share of the overall electorate.
Of the 13,536,830 total active voting population, 4,986,520 Democrats represented 36.8%, while 4,761,405 Republicans represented 35.2% and all “Other” affiliations totaling 3,788,905 represented 28%.
From 2017 to present, “Other” represents the total number of voters who are unaffiliated and affiliated with minor parties. In 2019, unaffiliated voters represented 26.9%, or 3,641,359. Minor parties represented 1.1%, or 1,47,546.
Voter Registration Trend
That updated voter registration statistics represent a continuation of a longterm trend in the state of Florida. At 225,115, Florida Democrats now have the slimmest voter registration advantage over Florida Republicans since tracking statistics in 1972.
Conventional wisdom holds that the narrowing of the gap between Florida Democrats and Florida Republicans is the result of older, white voters switching their voter registration. That explanation is too superficial and outdated.
That’s certainly been a significant factor behind the overall trend, particularly during the era of Barack Obama. But more recent data suggest it isn’t the primary driver in the era of Donald Trump.
In December 2019, a total of 50,733 new voters registered in the state of Florida. Of them, 34% registered as Republicans, while only 29% registered as Democrats.
The largest group, at 37%, registered as either unaffiliated or minor party.
Historical Context
Throughout that same period, no Democratic presidential candidate has ever carried the Sunshine State with an advantage less than 558,272. That was the advantage Democrats held when Barack Obama defeated Mitt Romney in 2012 by just 0.88%, or only 74,309 votes.
In 2016, the Democratic voter registration advantage was 330,428. Donald Trump still defeated Hillary Clinton 49.02% to 47.82%, or 112,911 votes. The PPD Election Projection Model rated the stateLeans Trump.
Voter File Analysis
The Voter File Analysis—which again, is sourced by data updated on a monthly basis—is still strikingly similar to the data sourced by the Florida Department of State.
The sample is of 12,443,282 voters to include 5,642,711 total records with landlines, 6,182,122 total records with mobile phones, and 7,421,894 total records with emails.
Voter Registration By Party
Democrat
4,616,594
37.10%
Republican
4,356,114
35.01%
None
3,351,399
26.93%
Independent
78,166
0.63%
Libertarian
30,438
0.24%
Green
6,259
0.05%
Constitution
1,723
0.01%
Reform
1,344
0.01%
Other
1,245
0.01%
Total
12,443,282
99.99%
As we can see above, voter registration derived from our Voter File Analysis was spot on juxtaposed to the statistics released by the Florida Department of State.
The total 4,616,594 Democrats represented 37.10%, a near exact match to the 36.7% in the active voter registration statistics. The 4,761,405 Republicans represented 35.01%, also a near exact match (35.2%). The total of nones, minor parties and other was 27.88%, again a near exact match (28%).
Inferred Race/ Ethnicity
White Caucasian
7,922,679
63.67%
Hispanic
2,186,097
17.57%
African American
1,727,310
13.88%
Asian
259,600
2.09%
Unknown
347,596
2.79%
Total
12,443,282
100.00%
In 2016, the exit polls—which we’ve disputed, with good reason—pegged Whites as 62% of the electorate. Blacks were estimated at 14%; Hispanics 18%; Asians 2%; and, 4% unknown or other.
Subsequent analysis suggests Whites were likely 64%, potentially as high as 66%, of the overall electorate in Florida. Nevertheless, the Voter Analysis nearly mirrors reasonable estimates for 2016.
Gender
In 2016, the exit polls found a gender breakdown of 53% female to 47% male. The Voter File Analysis pegged female voters at a total 6,656,142, or 53.49%. Male voters were a total 5,778,496, or 46.44%.
There were 8,644 voters blank for gender, or 0.07%.
Turnout Probability Model Favors Florida Republicans
The Turnout Probability Model uses machine learning technology to accurately predict the likelihood that a voter will vote in a particular election—in this case the U.S. Presidential General Election in Florida.
The model is expressed as a percentage from 1% to 100%, with 100% being the most likely to vote in a particular election. This model is of voters who are more likely to vote than not to vote, meaning the likelihood is greater than 50%.
Worth noting, this is simply a method to determine the composition of the electorate most likely to vote, not the eventual overall electorate. However, it does provide insight into which party has a built-in turnout advantage.
The sample for the Turnout Probability Model is of 7,805,304 voters to include 4,326,453 total records with landlines, 4,221,671 total records with mobile phones, and 4,924,573 total records with emails.
Voter Registration By Party
Republican
3,263,606
41.81%
Democrat
3,022,699
38.73%
None
1,471,530
18.85%
Independent
26,604
0.34%
Libertarian
15,756
0.20%
Green
2,996
0.04%
Constitution
939
0.01%
Reform
790
0.01%
Other
384
0.00%
Total
12,443,282
99.99%
This model predicts an advantage of Republican +3.08.
That might sound unrealistic. But consider the electorate was Republican +1 in both 2016 and 2018. Because the national mood was Democrat +8.4 in 2018—a historically unfavorable cycle for first-term incumbent parties—it’s not unreasonable at all to expect a larger turnout advantage in 2020.
The results of the Turnout Probability Model—backed by the results of the previous four election cycles—clearly reveal a slight but significant advantage for Donald Trump and Florida Republicans.
Gender
The Turnout Probability Model also counted a total 4,334,516 female voters, or 55.53%. Male voters totaled 3,468,386, or 44.44%. There were 2,402 voters blank for gender, or 0.03%.
Inferred Race/ Ethnicity
White Caucasian
5,413,967
69.36%
Hispanic
1,062,259
13.61%
African American
1,028,633
13.18%
Asian
138,478
1.77%
Unknown
161,967
2.08%
Total
12,443,282
100.00%
In Florida, statewide elections are won on the margins, particularly presidential elections. Even the more generous Turnout Probability Model using a 40% likelihood still results in Republican +1.55, or 40% to 38.45%.
The Power of Incumbency
The power of incumbency is difficult to overstate. It can resist a negative trend, as it did for Barack Obama in 2012, or it can exacerbate a positive trend, as it did for George Bush in 2004.
In 2020, Donald Trump will benefit from the power of incumbency. But he is also likely to benefit from historically positive voter registration trends and an advantage in partisan turnout.
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