Widget Image
Follow PPD Social Media
Thursday, February 13, 2025
HomeStandard Blog Whole Post (Page 558)

Weekly-Jobless-Claims-Graphic

Weekly Jobless Claims Graphic. Number of Americans applying for first-time jobless benefits.

Weekly jobless claims fell by 4,000 to 264,000 last week. That came in lower than the estimate for 270,000. The prior week was revised higher by 1,000 to 268,000.

The four-week moving average–which is widely considered a better gauge, as it irons out week-to-week ups and downs–was 269,500, a decline of 7,500 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 250 from 276,750 to 277,000.

A Labor Department analyst said no special factors influenced the data and no state was triggered “on” the Extended Benefits program during the week ending May 21. The report marks 66 consecutive weeks of initial claims below 300,000, the threshold typically associated with a strong labor market. However, while it is the longest streak since 1973 they have remained under the threshold, it is also due to a number of factors–including chronic long-term unemployment.

In essence, there are two many people simply no longer eligible to file claims for and collect state unemployment insurance.

The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending May 21 were in Alaska (3.3), West Virginia (2.6), Wyoming (2.6), Puerto Rico (2.4), New Jersey (2.3), California (2.2), Connecticut (2.2), Pennsylvania (2.2), Illinois (1.9), Massachusetts (1.9), and Nevada (1.9).

The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending May 28 were in California (+3,827), Georgia (+1,832), Puerto Rico (+1,547), Illinois (+1,217), and Indiana (+720), while the largest decreases were in Oregon (-1,700), Virginia (-650), North Carolina (-647), Iowa (-587), and Pennsylvania (-551).

Weekly jobless claims fell by 4,000 to

[brid video=”40970″ player=”2077″ title=”Gay Latino Trump Supporter It Was Harder to Come Out for Trump Than the Closest”]

Juan Hernandez, a gay Latino Trump supporter who was attacked at a rally in San Jose, said it was harder to come out in support of Donald Trump than the closet. That’s not because it was hard for him to support Mr. Trump. In fact, he’s been a Trump supporter from the beginning of the cycle.

Rather it’s because of same reason we are seeing social desirability bias in the polls, which has resulted in Mr. Trump over-performing his polling numbers in most states, including the final seven competitive primary contests.

Mr. Hernandez, a member of Log Cabin Republicans, a pro-gay limited government advocacy group, was viciously attacked by anti-U.S. Mexican-flag waving protestors at a rally in San Jose.

As PPD previously reported, he also confirmed the police on scene when asked said they were told by the mayor and police commissioner to stand down and allow the violent attacks. As a result, he suffered a broken nose and a concussion.

Juan Hernandez, a gay Latino Trump supporter

Bernie Sanders California

Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders gives a speech after the California Democratic primary on June 7.

“Drop your plans and schemes,” Thomas Cromwell advises doomed Queen Anne Boleyn in “Wolf Hall.” “Put down the burden of them.”

Bernie Sanders could use similar counsel. He’s now behind Hillary Clinton by almost 400 pledged delegates and nearly 4 million popular votes. Spare us the commentary on the crowds, the passion and the noise. The voters clearly prefer Hillary.

After losing California and New Jersey, Sanders again vowed to “take the fight” to the convention in Philadelphia — a message that he still has the power to make things unpleasant for the Democratic Party. He hints that his devotees might withhold votes for Clinton. Threats are all he has left, and he can’t let go of them.

The nominating process is lumpy for sure, but actually, some of the “rigging” favored Sanders. He did very well in the caucuses, low-turnout affairs where participants have to sit in a gymnasium and argue publicly with their neighbors. These were perfect settings for ardent Sanders volunteers to dominate. Clinton prevailed in primaries, in which ordinary Democrats could quickly vote and then go to their jobs or children.

President Obama will have a heart-to-heart with Sanders later this week. Obama will no doubt urge him to deter his fan club from booing at Clinton’s name. Sanders has never been a team player, but if he’s playing for any team now, it’s Donald Trump’s.

One hopes the president will stall Sanders’ latest plot to, in effect, replace the Democrats’ popular vote with polls. The idea is to persuade the superdelegates, the party insiders Sanders once excoriated as undemocratic, to swing his way at the convention because polls show him beating Trump by a wider margin than would Clinton.

No one knows better than the insiders how worthless such polls are. They compare a candidate under partisan assault for decades with one on whom the Republican opposition has yet to spend $2 attacking. You can imagine Trump ads harping on Sanders’ warm praise for a certain bearded dictator, his odd scribbling on sexual matters and his other idiosyncrasies.

Trump himself continues making kind references to Sanders, mischievously fueling the persecution complex that Sanders has cultivated among his people. If you really want to gauge which candidate poses the least danger to Trump, look at the Democratic candidate he wants to run against.

Always moving the furniture, often distorting reality. Recall Sanders’ dismissive wave of the hand at primary results in the Southern states where Clinton won commanding victories, thanks to African-American voters. “Conservative states” was his dissimulation.

Sanders frequently tells his adoring crowds that it’s “not about Bernie.” But it is about Bernie. The sophisticates in his camp know it. Without the grouchy, charismatic haranguer, the cameras go away. Furthermore, with Trump imploding and politically serious Sanders followers moving to the presumptive nominee, Clinton can worry less about a hardcore left bent on intimidating her party.

Back in Tudor England, Cromwell offers to help Queen Anne as much as he can and then abruptly adds, “But do not threaten me.”

Sanders has benefited from running against an opponent loath to fight back and offend his people. Others will not be so accommodating. For example, longtime hippie journalist Al Giordano is mulling a challenge to Sanders’ U.S. Senate seat in 2018. Giordano is steamed at the damage Sanders is inflicting on the Democrats’ chances against Trump — and he has lots of company.

If Sanders’ ego can’t deal with his being a supportive player, he can withdraw from the scene. Burlington, Vermont, is a very nice place.

Above all, Sanders should stop the intrigue and electoral gimmicks. There’s a legacy to think about, and it should be worth something.

"Drop your plans and schemes," Bernie Sanders.

While Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders are battling in their final round in the Democratic primaries and Donald Trump is arguing that Clinton should be in prison for failing to safeguard state secrets while she was secretary of state, the same FBI that is diligently investigating her is quietly and perniciously seeking to cut more holes in the Fourth Amendment to the Constitution.

That amendment — which requires the government to obtain a search warrant issued by a judge based upon some evidence of criminal wrongdoing, called probable cause, before the government can search persons, houses, papers or effects — is the linchpin of the right to privacy, famously referred to by Justice Louis Brandeis as the right to be let alone.

The Fourth Amendment has a painful yet unambiguous history. The essence of that history is the well-documented and nearly universal Colonial revulsion to the British use of general warrants.

General warrants, which were usually issued in secret in London, permitted British soldiers and agents in America to search wherever they wished and seize whatever they found. General warrants were not based upon any individualized suspicion, much less any probable cause. Their stated purpose was the need to enforce the Stamp Act, a totalitarian measure that cost more to enforce than it generated in revenue.

The Stamp Act required all colonists to purchase and affix stamps to all legal, financial, political, personal and public documents. It was billed as a revenue-gathering measure, but it truly was used as an excuse to humiliate the colonists by permitting soldiers and agents to enter their homes ostensibly looking for the stamps. They were really looking for evidence of revolutionary ideas and plans against the king.

After Americans won the Revolution and wrote the Constitution, they did so with the determination never to permit the new government here to do to Americans what the pre-Revolutionary British government had done to the colonists. Their chosen instrument of that prevention was the Fourth Amendment.

But the feds have been wearing away at the right to privacy for generations. The Right to Financial Privacy Act (which has nothing to do with protecting privacy) permits federal agents to obtain certain bank records with search warrants issued by other federal agents — as opposed to judges — as long as they are looking for mobsters or drug dealers. The Patriot Act (which has nothing to do with patriotism) enables FBI agents to issue search warrants to other FBI agents for certain business records — including doctors’ and lawyers’ offices, car and jewelry dealers, and the post office — as long as they are looking for threats to national security. And the Electronic Communications Privacy Act (which interferes with the privacy of almost all electronic communications) permits FBI agents to access certain metadata (the who, where and when of emails, but not their contents), as long as one FBI agent issues the warrant to another and as long as the recipient uses it for national security purposes.

Now the FBI wants access to everyone’s internet browser history, as long as its agents are looking for spies or terrorists; and again, it proposes that rather than present probable cause to a judge and seek a warrant as the Fourth Amendment requires, one FBI agent be authorized to issue a search warrant to another.

The federal government’s antipathy to the Fourth Amendment is palpable and well-known — notwithstanding that everyone who works for the feds has taken an oath to uphold the Constitution, not evade or avoid it. Last week, FBI Director James Comey effectively told the Senate committee that is writing this damnable new legislation that complying with the Fourth Amendment is a pain in the neck and his agents could operate more efficiently without it.

Wake up, America. The Fourth Amendment is supposed to be a pain in the neck for the government.

The Fourth Amendment was expressly written to protect our individual right to privacy from the voracious and insatiable appetite of government to assault it. It was also written to ensure that government can seek evidence against bad guys, but it was meant to force the government to target them based on real evidence, not to let it sweep them up in a suspicionless net along with the innocent.

When Edward Snowden revealed the nature and extent of domestic spying on everyone in America three years ago, he revealed a secret that somehow 60,000 federal agents and contractors were able to keep. That secret was a novel and perverse interpretation of certain federal statutes so as to use them to justify spying on innocents.

But what we have here with this FBI request to access our browsing history — which reveals deeply personal, political, medical, legal and intimate data about us — is coming about openly through our elected representatives. It is not only the FBI that secretly wants this but also members of Congress who are on the verge of openly approving it.

And don’t expect your internet service provider to tell you that the FBI has come calling, as this legislation would prohibit the service provider from telling you that your records have been accessed. This provision violates the First Amendment to the Constitution, which states that “Congress shall make no law … abridging the freedom of speech.”

Wake up, America. How many congressional assaults on the Constitution will we tolerate?

Since the government obviously does not take its obligation to uphold the Constitution seriously, why bother with requiring one FBI agent to authorize another? Why not let any FBI agent search wherever he or she wants, break down any door, seize any records and invade anyone’s privacy, lest compliance with the Constitution be a pain in the neck.

Wake up, America. The Constitution has become a pain in the neck to our personal liberties, because as a safeguard of them, it obviously no longer works.

Wake up, America. The Constitution has become

War on Drugs protest in Washington, D.C.

War on Drugs protest in Washington, D.C.

I’m not a fan of the War on Drugs, even though I’m personally very socially conservative on the use of drugs. Regardless of my individual preferences, I recognize that prohibition gives government the power to trample our rights, that it is borderline (if not over-the-line) racist, and that it leads to horrible injustices.

I’d much prefer for law enforcement resources be allocated to fighting crimes that actually have victims.

Though I guess one fringe benefit of the War on Drugs is that it has given us additional evidence that Hillary Clinton is not an economist.

She once justified her support for the War on Drugs by stating “there is just too much money in it.”

Wow, this may be the all-time winner for most economically illiterate statement ever uttered by a politician. At the risk of stating the obvious, the reason the drug trade is so lucrative is because it’s illegal.

Here’s some evidence resulting from the fact that some states have decriminalized marijuana.

The L.A. Times reports on a side effect of these sensible state-based reforms.

“I’ve always liked this business, producing marijuana,” the 50-year-old farmer said wistfully. He had decided that this season’s crop would be his last. The reason: free-market economics. The loosening of marijuana laws across much of the United States has increased competition from growers north of the border, apparently enough to drive down prices paid to Mexican farmers. Small-scale growers here in the state of Sinaloa, one of the country’s biggest production areas, said that over the last four years the amount they receive per kilogram has fallen from $100 to $30. The price decline appears to have led to reduced marijuana production in Mexico and a drop in trafficking to the U.S., according to officials on both sides of the border… “Changes on the other side of the border are making marijuana less profitable for organizations like the Cartel de Sinaloa,” said Antonio Mazzitelli, the representative in Mexico for the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime.

So the unintended consequence of drug liberalization in the United States is to weaken sinister cartels in Mexico.

Sounds like a win-win situation.

Speaking of unintended consequences, let’s contemplate what lessons we can learn about prohibition from this story about some new research on drugs and alcohol in the Washington Post.

In the state of Kentucky, some counties (“dry”) prohibit alcohol sales completely. Others allow it only within certain municipalities (“moist,”) or don’t place restrictions on alcohol sales at all (“wet”). The Louisville researchers noticed that dry counties had higher rates of meth lab busts, as well as higher rates of meth crimes overall. And the effect is significant: “if all counties were to become wet, the total number of meth lab seizures in Kentucky would decline by about 25 percent,” they found. …the researchers found that this is more than just a simple correlation… In other words: people who buy alcohol in places where it’s illegal become accustomed to dealing with the black market. If you’re going to get punished whether you trade in booze or trade in meth, why not give meth a spin?

Here’s an accompanying chart, showing that counties with no alcohol had considerably more problems with meth.

By the way, the evidence presented above is just one piece of a larger puzzle.

This research fits in with other findings showing harmful effects of localized alcohol prohibitions. A 2005 paper in the Journal of Law and Economics found that when Texas counties changed from dry to wet, their incidences of drug-related mortality decreased by 14 percent as people substituted alcohol for other drugs. Records from the Kentucky State Police show that dry counties tend to have higher rates of DUI-related car crashes than wet ones — presumably because when you live in a dry county, you have to drive farther to get your booze. A 2010 report from the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation found that binge drinking rates were often higher in Alabama’s dry counties than its wet ones.

In other words, drugs and alcohol unambiguously can cause people to make stupid decisions.

But there are more stupid decisions and worse consequences when these products are criminalized.

Let’s close with a very clever Venn Diagram from Mark Perry at the American Enterprise Institute.

Hopefully my conservative friends will recognize the inconsistency in their views. And at the very least they should be strongly opposed to U.N. efforts to interfere with American sovereignty on the issue.

P.S. Mark also produced a very brave video on gender and test scores.

P.P.S. You may think only “crazy” libertarians favor liberalization, but there’s actually a very broad coalition of people who favor reform. Folks such as John Stossel, Gary Johnson, John McCain, Mona Charen, Pat Robertson, Cory Booker,Rick Perry, and Richard Branson.

You may think only “crazy” libertarians favor

Barack-Obama-Jobs-Labor-Force

Job seekers, left, applying for weekly jobless benefits at a state-run job fair. President Barack Obama, right, delivers his final State of the Union address on Tuesday, January 12, 2015.(Photos: Reuters/Evan Vucci/Pool)

What’s the most important economic statistic to gauge a society’s prosperity? I often use per-capita economic output when comparing nations.

But for ordinary people, what probably matters most is household income. And if you look at the median household income numbers for the United States, Obamanomics is a failure. According to the Census Bureau’s latest numbers, the average family today has less income (after adjusting for inflation) than when Obama took office.

In an amazing feat of chutzpah, however, the President is actually arguing that he’s done a good job with the economy. His main talking point is that the unemployment rate is down to 4.7 percent. Yet, as discussed in this Blaze TV interview, sometimes the unemployment rate falls for less-than-ideal reasons.

[brid video=”40829″ player=”2077″ title=”Dan Mitchell Commenting on Falling Labor Force Participation”]

Since I’m a wonky economist, I think my most important point was about long-run prosperity being dependent on the amount of labor and capital being productively utilized in an economy. And that’s why the unemployment rate, while important, is not as important as the labor force participation rate.

Here’s the data, directly from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

As you can see, the trend over the past 10 years is not very heartening.

labor force participation under Barack Obama

To be sure, Obama should not be blamed for the fact that a downward trend that began in 2008 (except to the extent that he supported the big-government policies of the Bush Administration).

But he can be blamed for the fact that the numbers haven’t recovered, as would normally happen as an economy pulls out of a recession. This is a rather damning indictment of Obamanomics.

By the way, I can’t resist commenting on what Obama said in the soundbite that preceded my interview. He asserted that “we cut unemployment in half years before a lot of economists thought we could.”

My jaw almost hit the floor. This is a White House that promised the unemployment rate would peak at only 8 percent and then quickly fall if the so-called stimulus was approved. Yet the joblessness rate jumped to 10 percent and only began to fall after there was a shift in policy that resulted in a spending freeze.

In effect, the President airbrushed history and then tried to take credit for something that happened, at least in part, because of policies he opposed.

Wow.

One final point. I was asked in the interview which policy deserves the lion’s share of the blame for the economy’s tepid performance and weak job numbers.

I wasn’t expecting that question, so I fumbled around a bit before choosing ObamaCare.

But with the wisdom of hindsight, I think I stumbled onto the right answer. Yes, the stimulus was a flop, and yes, Dodd-Frank has been a regulatory nightmare, but ObamaCare was (and continues to be) a perfect storm of taxes, spending, and regulatory intervention.

And even the Congressional Budget Office estimates it has cost the economy two million jobs.

The unemployment rate, while important, is not

[brid video=”40815″ player=”2077″ title=”Trump Welcomes Sanders Supporters “With Open Arms””]

Donald Trump made an appeal to Sanders supporters and said his campaign welcomes those who voted for the Vermont senator “with open arms.” He promised that he would deliver “great trade deals”.

There is little doubt that there is voter overlap between Mr. Trump and Sen. Sanders, largely built on the issue of trade and protecting the American worker. In West Virginia, which will be reliably Republican in November, more than 4 in 10 said they would vote for The Donald if Sanders was not the nominee.

However, in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Ohio, among several others, Mr. Trump’s ability to attract a segment of Sanders supporters could mean the difference between a loss and a landslide.

Donald Trump made an appeal to Sanders

[brid video=”40814″ player=”2077″ title=”Bernie Sanders Refuses to Concede Nomination”]

In a speech to supporters in Santa Monica, Calif., on Tuesday Sen. Bernie Sanders refused to concede the nomination to Hillary Clinton. As PPD previously reported, depending on the final vote in California, Mrs. Clinton may indeed reach the number of pledged delegates needed to clinch the nomination, undermining the senator’s argument regarding superdelegates.

“I am pretty good in arithmetic and I know that the fight in front of us is a very, very steep fight but we will continue to fight for every vote, every delegate that we can win,” Sen. Sanders said.

In a speech to supporters in Santa

[brid video=”40812″ player=”2077″ title=”Donald Trump&#39s Election Night Remarks FULL Inspiring Speech (6716)”]

Speaking at Briarcliff Manor in Westchester, New York, on Tuesday night Donald Trump ripped the now-presumptive nominee Hillary Clinton for public corruption. He also vowed to be America’s champion.

“I will never, ever let you down,” Trump said. “We can turn this country around. We are going to do it by putting America first.”

The Donald also announced he would he will give a major speech next week highlighting the Clinton family track record. While it is true that Mrs. Clinton is now the first woman ever to win the presidential nomination of a major U.S. political party, it is also true she is the first of any gender to do so under federal investigation.

“We can’t solve our problems by counting on the politicians who created our problems,” Mr. Trump said. “The Clintons have turned the politics of personal enrichment into an art form for themselves.”

TRANSCRIPT

I understand the responsibility of carrying the mantle and I will never, ever let you down. Too much work, too many people, blood, sweat, and tears. I am never going to let you down. I will make you proud of your party and our movement…

I’ve fought for my employees. And now, I’m going to fight for you, the American people like nobody has ever fought before. And I’m not a politician fighting, I’m me. You’re going to see some real good things happen. Just remember this, I’m going to be your champion. I’m going to be America’s champion. Because you see, this election isn’t about Republican or Democrat it’s about who runs this country. The special interests or the people, and I mean, the American people.

Every election year, politicians promise change. Obama promised change and it didn’t work out too well. And every year, they fail to deliver. Why would politicians want to change a system that’s totally rigged in order to keep them in power? That’s what they’re doing, folks. why would politicians want to change a system that’s made them and their friends very, very wealthy? I beat a rigged system, by winning with overwhelming support…

After years of disappointment, there’s one thing we all have learned. We can’t fix the rigged system by relying… on the very people who rigged it. And they rigged it. And do not ever think anything differently. We can’t solve our problems by counting on the politicians who created our problems. The Clintons have turned the politics of personal enrichment into an art form for themselves.

They’ve made hundreds of millions of dollars selling access, selling favors, selling government contracts, and I mean hundreds of millions of dollars. Secretary Clinton even did all of the work on a totally illegal private server. Something that how she’s getting away, folks, nobody understands, designed to keep her corrupt dealings out of the public record, putting the security of the entire country at risk, and a president in a corrupt system is totally protecting her.

Speaking Tuesday at Briarcliff Manor in Westchester,

Hillary-Clinton-New-Jersey

Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton speaks at a campaign rally in Blackwood, New Jersey, U.S., May 11, 2016. (Photo: Reuters)

Hillary Clinton has won the California Democratic primary and could win enough pledged, bound delegates to clinch the nomination. It marks the first time in U.S. history a woman has won a major party nomination for president, though Sen. Bernie Sanders refused to concede Tuesday night.

On Monday, the night before the pivotal states–California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, North Dakota and South Dakota–the Associated Press “reported” that Mrs. Clinton wrapped up the nomination. However, that was only true with superdelegates, who don’t officially pledge their support until the nomination. With the Golden State in her column, it is now possible that she could reach the number of pledged delegates needed.

The report, which no doubt depressed turnout for the challenger, puts in question the journalistic ethics at the AP and Sen. Sanders was furious.

On the Republican side, presumptive nominee Donald Trump easily swept the remaining states where he ran essentially unopposed after defeating a deep, large 17-strong bench during the primary season. Mr. Trump now has easily surpassed the number of pledged bound delegates to clinch the nomination.

Meanwhile, the two candidates bludgeoned each other in their speeches, offering a preview of the general election. Mrs. Clinton said her opponent was “temperamentally unfit to be president” and accused him of racism, misogyny and the like. In his “America First” victory speech at Briarcliff Manor in New York, Mr. Trump vowed that he was “going to be America’s champion.”

“I beat a rigged system with overwhelming support, the only way you can do it,” Mr. Trump said. “We can’t beat a rigged system by relying on the very same people who rigged it. We can’t rely on the politicians who created our problems to fix them.”

Mr. Trump went on to clobber the Clintons for making millions during and as a result of their careers in public service. He announced he will give a major speech next week highlighting her record of public corruption.

“Hillary Clinton turned the State Department into her private hedge fund,” he added. “We’re going to turn this all around and we’re going to do it by putting America first.”

Mr. Trump and Mrs. Clinton are essentially tied on the PPD average of polls.

Hillary Clinton has won the California Democratic

People's Pundit Daily
You have %%pigeonMeterAvailable%% free %%pigeonCopyPage%% remaining this month. Get unlimited access and support reader-funded, independent data journalism.

Start a 14-day free trial now. Pay later!

Start Trial