Projected Business Formations Increased 4.5% Compared to Q3 2019
The Census Bureau report on Business Formation Statistics finds Business Applications for the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2019 were 891,286, an increase of 3.4% compared to Q3 2019.
The West (+4.6%) and the South (+3.4%) led the way, though the Northeast (+2.8%) and Midwest (+2.1%) were also positive. Within 8 quarters, the regional numbers were more equal.
The West (+4.0%), the South (+3.8%), the Northeast (+4.1%) and Midwest (+3.5%) were all positive.
Projected Business Formations within 4 quarters for Q4 2019, adjusted for seasonal variation, were 81,642, up 4.5% compared to Q3 2019. That means the Census Bureau is projecting 81,642 new business startups with payroll tax liabilities will form within 4 quarters of application from all the business applications filed during Q4 2019.
The Q1 2020 Business Formation Statistics Report is scheduled for release on April 15, 2020.
Note on Business Formations
Statistics on actual business formations are currently available up to only Q4 2016, the latest quarter for which administrative data is available on payroll. The Census Bureau can only state actual business formations within 4 quarters up to the fourth quarter of 2015, and business formations within 8 quarters up to the fourth quarter of 2014.
Dow Jones Closed at Record High for Third Time Already in 2020
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) closed at a record high on Wednesday and above 29,000 for the first time ever. The index set the third record high close for the year.
The Dow Jones closed +90.55, or +0.31% at 29,030.22.
Market gains were fueled by more positive regional manufacturing data and the signing of the first phase of what is expected to be broader trade agreement between the U.S. and China.
Earlier Wednesday, President Donald J. Trump and Chinese Vice Premier Liu He signed Phase One of the U.S.-China Trade Deal at the White House. The president said the historic trade deal will move the two nations “toward a future of fair and reciprocal trade.”
In exhange for Beijing agreeing to increase purchases of U.S. goods and services by at least $200 billion over the next two years, the U.S. agreed to some tariff relief.
Markets also cheered Beijing’s concessions in technology transfers, intellectual property, currency manipulation, and the removal of barriers for U.S. banking, insurance and other financial services in China.
The S&P 500 (^SPX) also closed at a record high. It’s the fourth record high close already for the index in 2020. The S&P closed +6.14, or +0.19% at 3,289.29.
The Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) closed up by a more moderate +7.37, or +0.080% at 9,258.70.
Trump Signs Phase One of the U.S.-China Trade Deal
President Donald J. Trump, with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He, at the signing of Phase One of the U.S.-China Trade Deal on Wednesday, January 15, 2020.
On Wednesday, President Donald J. Trump and Chinese Vice Premier Liu He signed Phase One of the U.S.-China Trade Deal. The president said the historic trade deal will move the two nations “toward a future of fair and reciprocal trade.”
“Today we take a momentous step, one that has never been taken before with China,” the president said. “Together, we are righting the wrongs of the past and delivering a future of economic justice and security for American workers, farmers and families.”
“Our negotiations were tough, honest and respectful,” he added.
While the complete trade agreement is embedded in an easily viewable format below—though not viewable in private mode—here are a few notable bullet points.
U.S.-China Trade Deal Points
Buy American: Beijing will increase purchases of U.S. goods and services by at least $200 billion over the next two years. Fiscal Year 2017 will be used as the benchmark.
Tariff relief: The U.S. will cut the tariff rate in half—from 15% to 7.5%—imposed on September 1 targeting roughly $120 billion in Chinese products, including shoes and apparel. The U.S. will not impose tariffs of 15% on roughly $156 billion in consumer products.
Technology transfer: China will no longer force foreign companies to transfer technology to Chinese companies as a precondition for market access.
Intellectual property: Measures—though unspecified—are put in place to address intellectual property theft and other IP concerns.
Financial services: Removing barriers to expansion for U.S. banking, insurance and other financial services companies in China.
Currency measures: Measures aimed at stopping China from devaluing its currency.
Dispute resolution: A new arrangement for the two nations to resolve disputes through consultations.
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey continued to rebound, inching 1.3 higher in January to beat the consensus forecast at 4.8. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York said the small degree of growth was fueled by new orders and shipments both edging higher.
Forecasts ranged from a low of -6.0 to 5.3. The consensus was for a flat reading at 3.6.
Twenty-eight percent (28%) reported Empire State manufacturing conditions over the month, while 23% reported conditions had worsened. The new orders index rose 5 points to 6.6, and the shipment index posted a modest increase at 8.6.
The unfilled orders index rose 11 points, though it remained in negative territory at -2.7. Delivery times shortened and inventories held steady.
Employment expanded for the fifth consecutive month as the index for number of employees was unchanged at 9.0. The average workweek index came in at 1.3, also virtually unchanged.
Price increases rose considerably for Empire State manufacturing firms. After falling to a multi-year low in December, the prices paid index shot up 16 points to 31.5. The prices received index jumped 10 points to 14.4.
While the index for future business conditions ticked down 3 points to 23.6, the index for future shipments rose 5 points to 32.7. The capital expenditures index held steady at a solid 25.3, and the technology spending index fell 5 points to 22.6.
Democrats in Congress Silent on Iran Protestors Amid Brutal Crackdown
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, left, and Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., right.
On Tuesday, House Democrats blocked a resolution introduced by Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., which expressed support for the Iran protestors.
“Why in the world are @HouseDemocrats blocking the @GOPLeader‘s resolution condemning this Iranian regime for obvious human rights violations?” Leader McCarthy wrote on Twitter. “This isn’t complicated. Let’s stand up for the same basic right to free speech in Iran that we have here and vote on this resolution.”
Protests in Iran continued for a fourth day as Democrats blocked the vote, with the crowd denouncing clerical rulers and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei during a brutal crackdown. At least 30 protestors were taken into custody.
Demonstrations were sparked after Iran admitted Saturday its military shot down Ukraine International Airlines (UIA) Flight 752 bound for Kiev, killing all 176 aboard. While the regime called it a “disastrous mistake”, the admission came after three days of denials and mounting international pressure.
On Saturday, protestors were calling for the death of Ayatollah Khamenei, despite risk of execution. The crowd defended President Donald J. Trump and called Qassem Soleimani a “murderer.”
Numerous videos posted late on Sunday recorded gunfire in Tehran’s Azadi Square. Wounded protestors were being carried and security personnel ran holding rifles. Riot police hit protesters with batons as people shouted “Don’t beat them!”
Fars News Agency, the a “semi-official” media for the Iranian government, said a person who posted the video online last week showing a missile hitting the plane, has been arrested.
House Resolution 791 expressed support for the Iran protestors, condemned how the regime handled the accidental shoot-down of UIA Flight 752, and called on the mullahs to not use force against its own people.
“Those who lack freedom look to America as the example,” Rep. Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, tweeted. “Congress should stand with everyone who seeks freedom.”
House Democrats, who refused to comment for this article, have been quiet on the resolution.
Rep. Ilhan Omar, D-Minn., one of the first Muslims to be elected to the U.S. Congress, has a long history of criticizing actions against the regime while calling the president a “tyrant”.
Largest 12-Month Gain for CPI Since Period Ending October 2018
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.2% in December on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.3% in November, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. Gasoline, shelter, and medical care all rose and largely drove the gain in the CPI for December.
Over the last 12 months, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for All Items rose 2.3% before seasonal adjustment, the largest 12-month increase since the period ending October 2018.
The food index increased 1.8% over that same period ending in December, 12 months and the energy index gained 3.4%.
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index ended 2019 historically strong, though down to 102.7 in December from a much higher-than-expected 104.7 in November. Forecasts ranged from a low of 103.5 to a high of 106.0. The consensus was 104.4.
The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) said 7 of the index’s 10 components fell, while two improved and and one was unchanged.
Still, the number of small business owners reporting better business conditions rose to a net 16%, up from 10% in October and 13% in November. A net 9% reported higher nominal sales in the past three months, 3 points higher than the average reading for 2019.
“December marked the end of another banner year for the small business economy, as owners took full advantage of strong consumer spending, and federal tax and regulatory relief,” said NFIB Chief Economist William Dunkelberg. “2020 is starting out with a solid foundation for continued growth, two years into the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act that’s providing fuel to grow small businesses and their workforce.”
Even though plans to raise compensation fell two points, the net 29% reading remains one of the highest in the survey’s 46-year history. Job creation matched the reading in November, which was the highest since May.
Finding qualified workers remains the top issue for small business owners. Twenty-three percent (23%) reported that as their number one problem, a continued indication of a skills gap. A net 29% cited raising compensation (down 1 point) and a net 24% plan to raise compensation in the coming months, down 2 points.
“What really matters to small business owners are issues directly impacting their bottom lines. Currently, their biggest problem is finding qualified labor, surpassing taxes or regulations,” Mr. Dunkelberg added.
“Two years ago, Congress and the President provided real, significant tax relief to small business owners. Now owners are anxious to have their tax cuts made permanent.”
The NFIB Research Center has collected Small Business Economic Trends data with quarterly surveys since the 4th quarter of 1973 and monthly surveys since 1986. Survey respondents are drawn from a random sample of NFIB’s membership. The report is released on the second Tuesday of each month. This survey was conducted in December 2019.
Booker Did Not Qualify for the Democratic Debate on Tuesday
Senator Cory Booker, D-N.J., making his pitch to be the 2020 Democratic nominee for President of the United States.
Senator Cory Booker, D-N.J., announced Monday he has suspended his campaign for president just weeks before the Iowa caucuses scheduled for Monday, February 3.
It’s with a full heart that I share this news—I’m suspending my campaign for president,” Senator Booker tweeted. “To my team, supporters, and everyone who gave me a shot—thank you.”
“I am so proud of what we built, and I feel nothing but faith in what we can accomplish together.”
It’s with a full heart that I share this news—I’m suspending my campaign for president.
To my team, supporters, and everyone who gave me a shot—thank you. I am so proud of what we built, and I feel nothing but faith in what we can accomplish together. pic.twitter.com/Fxvc549vlJ
Senator Booker, who as of now was polling at just 1.8% on average nationally, nearly dropped out of the race in the fall of 2019. A weaker-than-expected fundraising total for the month of September put the campaign on the brink.
In a memo, campaign manager Addisu Demissie pleaded with supporters for money and warned “the next 10 days” would “determine whether Cory Booker can stay in this race.”
But polling at an average of only 2.7% in Iowa—and with just over 24 hours from a debate for which he did not qualify—the Booker Campaign was already all but over.
The debate at Drake University in Des Moines is being co-sponsored by CNN and the Des Moines Register. It was a chance for Senator Booker and the other competitors to make their pitch to Democratic caucus-goers before the caucuses begin.
Supreme leader Ali Khamenei meeting with the air force commanders and personnel on February 6, 2016. (Photo: Official website of Ali Khamenei)
Iran protests continued for a third day, with the crowd denouncing clerical rulers and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei during a brutal crackdown. Riot police were deployed on Monday and hit protestors with batons as the demonstrators showed, “Don’t beat them!”
Video showed students outside universities in the cities of Isfahan and in Tehran chanting “Clerics get lost!” among other chants. Riot police could be seen getting into offensive positions.
Numerous other videos posted late on Sunday recorded gunfire in Tehran’s Azadi Square. Wounded protestors were being carried and security personnel ran holding rifles. Riot police hit protesters with batons as people shouted “Don’t beat them!”
While People’s Pundit Daily (PPD) could not immediately authentic the footage, images also showed wounded people being carried out of the protests and pools of blood on the street.
In an statement on state media, law enforcement in Tehran denied shooting protestors.
“At protests, police absolutely did not shoot because the capital’s police officers have been given orders to show restraint,” Tehran police chief Hossein Rahimi said.
Demonstrations were sparked after Iran admitted Saturday its military shot down UIA Flight 752 bound for Kiev, killing all 176 aboard. While the regime called it a “disastrous mistake”, the admission came after three days of denials and mounting international pressure.
On Saturday, protestors were calling for the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, despite risk of execution.
The crowd—furious over the regime’s handling of Ukraine International Airlines (UIA) Flight 752—defended U.S. President Donald J. Trump and called Qassem Soleimani a “murderer.”
“They are lying that our enemy is America, our enemy is right here,” a group of protesters outside a university in Tehran chanted, according to video clips posted on Twitter.
In his latest tweet, the president wrote that he couldn’t care less if the new sanctions force Iran to the negotiation table, but that he would not allow the regime to obtain a nuclear weapon and warned against killing protestors.
“National Security Adviser suggested today that sanctions & protests have Iran ‘choked off’, will force them to negotiate. Actually, I couldn’t care less if they negotiate. Will be totally up to them but, no nuclear weapons and ‘don’t kill your protesters.’”
مشاور امنیت ملی امروز عنوان کرد كه تحریم ها و اعتراضات، ایران را«به شدت تحت فشار»قرار داده است و آنها را مجبور به مذاكره می كند.در واقع، اصلا برایم اهمیتی نداردکه آیا آنها مذاکره می کنند یا نه.این کاملاً به عهده ی خودشان است، اما سلاح هسته ای نداشته باشیدو«معترضان خود را نکشید.» https://t.co/DBGGs8QFcJ
As has been the case over the last few days, the president posted the tweet in both English and Persian.
As People’s Pundit Daily (PPD) was among the first to report, U.S. officials believed the plane was accidentally shot down by Iran, specifically using the Russian-designed Tor missile system, also known by NATO code name the SA-15 Gauntlet.
“They killed our elites and replaced them with clerics,” university protestors chanted. The chant is a reference to Iranian students aboard the plane returning to studies in Canada.
U.S. Pentagon sources noted that the system would have been turned on after the Iranian missile attack on Wednesday morning if Tehran anticipated a U.S. military response. Tehran claimed the ballistic missile attack was retaliation for the death of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Quds Force Major-General Qassem Soleimani.
In October, Soleimani met with and instructed Shi’ite militia allies in Iraq to escalate attacks against U.S. targets as part of an elaborate strategy to redirect rising public outrage away from Iran and toward the United States.
Nearly two months ago, Iran massacred at least hundreds of citizens protesting gas prices, with some estimates as high as 1,500. People participating in the Iran protests are taking an enormous risk not only by protesting but also calling for the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Iran has also been plagued by protests against Iranian intervention in Iraq and Lebanon. Before his death, Soleimani had instructed Shi’ite militias in Iraq to escalate attacks on U.S. targets as part of an elaborate strategy to redirect rising public outrage away from Iran and toward the United States.
Iran Protestors Defend Trump, Chant: ‘Soleimani Is a Murderer, His Leader a Traitor’
U.S. President Donald J. Trump, left, delivering remarks at the White House after the ineffective Iran missile attack on U.S. and allies in Iraq on Wednesday, January 8, 2020, and Iran Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, right.
Iran protests continued for a second day, with the crowd calling for the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, despite risk of execution.
“Death to the dictator”, directing their anger at the Islamic Republic’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
The crowd—furious over the regime’s handling of Ukraine International Airlines (UIA) Flight 752—defended U.S. President Donald J. Trump and called Qassem Soleimani a “murderer.”
“They are lying that our enemy is America, our enemy is right here,” a group of protesters outside a university in Tehran chanted, according to video clips posted on Twitter.
Following three days of denials, Iran admitted Saturday its military shot down UIA Flight 752 bound for Kiev, killing all 176 aboard in what they called a “disastrous mistake”. The Ukrainian plane was shot down shortly after take-off from Imam Khomeini International Airport on Wednesday morning.
Initially, Iran claimed technical issues were to blame and that the plane was on fire before it fell to the ground. The regime also refused to grant Boeing Company (^BA) access to the black box recorder.
As People’s Pundit Daily (PPD) was among the first to report, U.S. officials believed the plane was accidentally shot down by Iran, specifically using the Russian-designed Tor missile system, also known by NATO code name the SA-15 Gauntlet.
U.S. Pentagon sources noted that the system would have been turned on after the Iranian missile attack on Wednesday morning if Tehran anticipated a U.S. military response. Tehran claimed the ballistic missile attack was retaliation for the death of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Quds Force Major-General Qassem Soleimani.
In October, Soleimani met with and instructed Shi’ite militia allies in Iraq to escalate attacks against U.S. targets as part of an elaborate strategy to redirect rising public outrage away from Iran and toward the United States.
Source: The Institute for the Study of War (ISW)
The rising escalation eventually led to the downing of the Ukraine International Airlines Boeing. Independent aviation operations experts cast doubt on Iran’s version of the story immediately. OPS insisted a “shootdown” was the most likely cause.
International pressure began to mount. Citizens of Canada and Ukraine, as well as Iran, were aboard the UAI Flight 752. The regime’s deception has now led to the Iran protests.
Corporate big media in the U.S. are largely ignoring the Iran protests, after attempting to cast blame on the White House. Yashar Ali, a leftwing journalist at New York Magazine and contributor to The Huffington Post, posted a must-read thread on the media coverage of the situation in Iran.
1. This AM I woke up to dozens of messages from family/friends in Iran
Right now, Iran is a tinderbox internally. As some of you know, there are protests mostly around the anger that Iranians feel towards the gov after they admitted IRGC shot down the Ukraine Airlines aircraft
Regardless of the coverage and unable to rely on even domestic corporate big media, President Trump tweeted both to the people of Iran and the regime in Tehran, directly.
“To the brave, long-suffering people of Iran: I’ve stood with you since the beginning of my Presidency, and my Administration will continue to stand with you,” the president wrote in a post on Saturday. “We are following your protests closely, and are inspired by your courage.”
To the brave, long-suffering people of Iran: I've stood with you since the beginning of my Presidency, and my Administration will continue to stand with you. We are following your protests closely, and are inspired by your courage.
“To the leaders of Iran – DO NOT KILL YOUR PROTESTERS. Thousands have already been killed or imprisoned by you, and the World is watching,” he posted. “More importantly, the USA is watching. Turn your internet back on and let reporters roam free! Stop the killing of your great Iranian people!”
To the leaders of Iran – DO NOT KILL YOUR PROTESTERS. Thousands have already been killed or imprisoned by you, and the World is watching. More importantly, the USA is watching. Turn your internet back on and let reporters roam free! Stop the killing of your great Iranian people!
Both tweets were also posted in English and Persian.
Nearly two months ago, Iran massacred at least hundreds of citizens protesting gas prices, with some estimates as high as 1,500. People participating in the Iran protests are taking an enormous risk not only by protesting but also calling for the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Now, the crowd is defending President Trump and calling Soleimani is a murderer, his leader a traitor.”
The American left and media cover relentlessly for Iran’s murderous regime. They claim that staged mass rallies mean the Iranian people are in mourning for Soleimani, and that it’s America’s fault Iran shot down an civilian airliner. https://t.co/mmPQb7xASY
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