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World

Ukraine International Airlines B738, UR-PSR, TLV on October 18, 2019. (Credit: LLBG Spotter)
Ukraine International Airlines B738, UR-PSR, TLV on October 18, 2019. (Credit: LLBG Spotter)

Iran admitted Saturday its military shot down Ukraine International Airlines Flight 752 bound for Kiev, killing all 176 aboard in a “disastrous mistake”.

After days of denials, Tehran said air defenses were fired while on alert after Iranian missile strikes on U.S. targets in Iraq. A senior commander in the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) said on Saturday he told authorities about the unintentional missile strike the day it happened.

“The Islamic Republic of Iran deeply regrets this disastrous mistake,” Iranian President Hassan Rouhani wrote on Twitter, promising that those responsible would be prosecuted. “My thoughts and prayers go to all the mourning families.”

As People’s Pundit Daily (PPD) was among the first to report, the U.S. first “suspected” and then was confident the Ukraine International Airlines Boeing 737-800 was shot down by the Russian-designed Tor missile system, also known by NATO code name the SA-15 Gauntlet.

The plane was shot down shortly after take-off from Imam Khomeini International Airport on Wednesday morning. U.S. Pentagon sources noted that the system would have been turned on after the Iranian missile attack on Wednesday morning if Tehran anticipated a U.S. military response.

Iran claimed technical issues were to blame and that the plane was on fire before it fell to the ground. The regime initially refused to grant Boeing Company (^BA) access to the black box recorder.

But pressure began to mount, as independent aviation operations experts cast doubt on Iran’s version of the story almost immediately. OPS insisted a “shootdown” was the most likely cause.

“We would recommend the starting assumption to be that this was a shootdown event, similar to MH17 – until there is clear evidence to the contrary,” the aviation risk monitoring group said in a statement.

Unverified pictures and cellphone footage posted to U.S. and Iranian social media indicated U.S. intelligence was correct. World leaders called for an open and thorough investigation.

Canadian Prime Minister Justice Trudeau said Friday “intelligence from multiple sources” indicated Ukraine International Airlines Flight 752 “was shot down by an Iranian surface-to-air missile.” He said it “may well have been unintentional.”

At least 57 Canadians were aboard the plane headed to Ukraine.

U.S. satellites detected the launch of two missiles shortly before UIA Flight 752 crashed, and evidence of an explosion followed shortly thereafter. Sources stressed that it is believed the shootdown was accidental.

Ukraine International Airlines B738, UR-PSR, TLV on

Economy

Unemployment Rate at or Below 4% for 22 Consecutive Months

Series with themes reflecting a certain billionaire politician who won the 2016 presidential election touting a very strong labor market and employment situation. (Photo: AdobeStock)
Series with themes reflecting a certain billionaire politician who won the 2016 presidential election touting a very strong labor market and employment situation. (Photo: AdobeStock)

The U-6 rate, commonly referred to as the real unemployment rate, fell to a record low in December, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at the 50-year low level of 3.5%.

The unemployment rate has been at or below 4% for 22 consecutive months. However, the U-6 unemployment rate—the broadest measure of unemployment and underemployment—fell 0.2% in December to 6.7%.

The alternative measure is the total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force.

“The effects of tax cuts and deregulation led to a strong close of 2019,” Secretary of Labor Eugene Scalia said in a statement on the December Employment Situation Report. “In 2019, the American economy saw record low unemployment rates for many groups, including African Americans, Hispanic Americans, Asian Americans, Americans with less than a high school diploma, and Americans with disabilities.”

For groups, the unemployment rates for adult men (3.1%), adult women (3.2%), teenagers (12.6%), Whites (3.2%), Blacks (5.9%), Asians (2.5%), and Hispanics (4.2%) showed little or no change in December.

Total nonfarm payrolls rose 145,000 in December, bringing the total number of jobs created since January 2017 to 6.7 million. At 50year low full employment and a record low U-6 rate, the total number of jobs is expected to rise more modestly.

“Very solid employment report,” Tim Anderson, analyst at TJM Investments on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) said in a statement. “Despite a miss by 10K to 20K v consensus, it comes after 4 months of very strong job gains including upward to revisions from prior months.”

The ADP National Employment Report released earlier this week found the U.S. economy added 202,000 private sector jobs in December.

“We’re likely having a bit of mean reversion among both the ADP jobs reports and the BLS jobs numbers,” Mr. Anderson added.

In the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2019, 74.2% of newly employed workers came from outside the labor force, the highest share ever recorded. As a result, the real unemployment rate has declined and flirted with the now record-setting low for months.

“For 17 straight months, year-over-year wages for production and non-supervisory employees have grown at or above 3.0%,” Secretary Scalia added.

“Positive economic policies, including the final passage of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement and the signing of the Phase One Trade Agreement with China, will pave the way for more job creation in 2020.”

The U-6 rate, commonly referred to as

Politics, Video

Rep. Matt Gaetz, R-Fla., a staunch support of the president, explained why he voted with Democrats on the War Powers Resolution. He was one of only three Republicans to do so.

An amendment sponsored by the congressman representing the Florida Panhandle ensured the resolution acknowledged the threat from Iran, didn’t exclude preemptive strikes or criticize President Donald Trump.

Watch the congressman from the Florida Panhandle speak on the floor of the U.S. House before the vote on the War Powers Resolution.

Rep. Matt Gaetz, R-Fla., a staunch support

Economy

Employment Situation More Modest, Indicative of Full Employment

Total nonfarm payrolls rose 145,000 in December and the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.5%, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) monthly jobs report.

Forecasts for the headline jobs number ranged from a low of 135,000 to a high of 190,000. The consensus forecast was 158,000.

For October, the number of jobs added was revised down by 4,000 from +156,000 to +152,000, and the change in total nonfarm payroll employment for November was revised down by 10,000 from +266,000 to +256,000.

With these revisions, employment gains in October and November combined were 14,000 lower than previously reported.

“Very solid employment report,” Tim Anderson, analyst at TJM Investments on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) said in a statement. “Despite a miss by 10K to 20K v consensus, it comes after 4 months of very strong job gains including upward to revisions from prior months.”

Unemployment Rate

The unemployment rate held steady in December, as did the number of unemployed persons at 5.8 million. A year earlier, the jobless rate was 3.9%, and the number of unemployed persons was 6.3 million.

For groups, the unemployment rates for adult men (3.1%), adult women (3.2%), teenagers (12.6%), Whites (3.2%), Blacks (5.9%), Asians (2.5%), and Hispanics (4.2%) showed little or no change in December.

The U-6 unemployment rate—an alternative measure of employment less cited but more broad—fell 0.2% in December to 6.7%.

The alternative measure is the total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force.

Labor Force Participation

The labor force participation rate was unchanged at a positive 63.2%. The employment-population ratio was 61.0% for the fourth consecutive month and is up by 0.4% over the year.

Most groups were little or unchanged, including Whites (63.2%), Hispanics (67.1), and Asians (63.6). But the labor force participation rate for Blacks jumped from 62.3 to 63.1 in December.

Total Nonfarm Private Payrolls

Total nonfarm private payrolls rose 139,000 in December.

Forecasts for total nonfarm private payrolls ranged from a low of 135,000  to a high of 175,000. The consensus was 150,000.

Worth noting, the ADP National Employment Report released earlier this week found the U.S. economy added 202,000 private sector jobs in December.

“We’re likely having a bit of mean reversion among both the ADP jobs reports and the BLS jobs numbers,” Mr. Anderson added. “On Wednesday, ADP jobs beat by +40,0000 after 2 months of significant shortfalls juxtaposed to consensus.”

“The BLS report for December of +145,000 jobs comes after a very strong 4-month stretch where monthly job gains averaged +208,000.”

Wages

Wages, or average hourly earnings (AHE) for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls, increased by 3.1% over the last 12 months in November. AHEs for all employees rose by 7 cents to $28.29.

Forecasts for wages ranged from a low of 3.0% to a high of 3.2%. The consensus forecast was 3.1%.

Wages had increased by at least 3% for 16 straight months. The 12-month change for October was revised higher from 3.0% to 3.2%.

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Total nonfarm payrolls rose 145,000 in December,

World

Justice Trudeau Cites Multiple Sources to Support Conclusion Iran Downed Ukrainian Plane With Canadians on Board

Canadian Prime Minister Justice Trudeau said “intelligence from multiple sources” indicates that UIA Flight 752 “was shot down by an Iranian surface-to-air missile.” He said the downing of Ukraine International Airlines Flight 752 “may well have been unintentional.”

“The news will undoubtedly come as a shock to the families who are already grieving from the unspeakable tragedy,” Prime Minister Trudeau said. “We have intelligence from multiple sources, including our allies and our own intelligence.”

As People’s Pundit Daily (PPD) reported, the U.S. Pentagon “suspects” the Ukrainian International Airlines Boeing 737-800 was shot down by the Russian-designed Tor missile system, also known as the SA-15 Gauntlet, shortly after take-off from Imam Khomeini International Airport on Wednesday morning.

All 176 people on board were killed, including at least 63 Canadians.

Iran claims technical issues were to blame and that the plane bound for Kiev was on fire before it fell to the ground. The regime refuses to grant Boeing Company (^BA) access to the black box recorder.

Prime Minister Trudeau said “Canada is working with its allies to ensure a thorough and credible investigation is conducted to determine the causes of this fatal crash.”

However, U.S. satellites detected the launch of two missiles shortly before UIA Flight 752 crashed, and evidence of an explosion followed shortly thereafter. Sources stressed that it is believed the shootdown was accidental.

“This new information reinforces the need for a thorough investigation into this matter,” Prime Minister Trudeau continued.

Independent aviation operations experts cast doubt on Iran’s version of the story almost immediately, insisting a “shootdown” was the most likely cause.

“We would recommend the starting assumption to be that this was a shootdown event, similar to MH17 – until there is clear evidence to the contrary,” aviation risk monitoring group OPS said in a statement.

President Donald Trump addressed the rising suspicion at a press conference for an unrelated event on Thursday.

“I have my suspicions,” President Trump said. “It’s a tragic thing when I see that. It’s a tragic thing.”

“But somebody could have made a mistake on the other side.”

Canadian Prime Minister Justice Trudeau said intel

US

Ukraine International Airlines B738, UR-PSR, TLV on October 18, 2019. (Credit: LLBG Spotter)
Ukraine International Airlines B738, UR-PSR, TLV on October 18, 2019. (Credit: LLBG Spotter)

The U.S. Pentagon “increasingly suspects” UIA Flight 752 was shot down by the Russian-designed Tor missile system, also known as the SA-15 Gauntlet. All 176 people on board were killed when the Ukrainian International Airlines Boeing 737-800 crashed shortly after take-off from Imam Khomeini International Airport on Wednesday morning.

Iran has claimed technical issues were to blame and that the plane bound for Kiev was on fire before it fell to the ground. Initially, the Ukrainian Embassy in Tehran mirrored the regime, but has since retracted their original statement.

Independent aviation operations experts cast doubt on Iran’s version of the story almost immediately, insisting a “shootdown” was the most likely cause.

“We would recommend the starting assumption to be that this was a shootdown event, similar to MH17 – until there is clear evidence to the contrary,” aviation risk monitoring group OPS said in a statement.

The Russian-designed anti-missile system is also known by its NATO reporting name, or code name the SA-15 Gauntlet. It is an all-weather, low-medium altitude short-range surface-to-air missile system designed for engaging aircraft, helicopters, and short-to-medium range ballistic threats.

Worth noting, North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) reporting names are code names for military equipment made by China, Russia and other nations formerly in the Warsaw Pact.

Pentagon sources noted that the system would have been turned on after the Iranian missile attack on Wednesday morning if Tehran anticipated a U.S. military response.

U.S. satellites detected the launch of two missiles shortly before UIA Flight 752 crashed, and evidence of an explosion followed shortly thereafter. Sources stressed that it is believed the shootdown was accidental.

President Trump addressed the rising suspicion at a press conference for an unrelated event on Thursday.

“I have my suspicions,” President Trump said. “It’s a tragic thing when I see that. It’s a tragic thing.”

“But somebody could have made a mistake on the other side.”

A source from Boeing Company (^BA), who spoke to PPD on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to make a statement, said the U.S. manufacturer does not believe a 3-year-old airplane that just underwent inspection days before caught on fire.

“That aside, an engine fire doesn’t rule out a missile,” the source said. “A missile strike itself could’ve caused the fire. The explanation is ridiculous and the conclusion is more than suspicious.”

Iran said it will not grant Boeing access to the black box recorder, and it’s unclear whether Canada or Ukraine will either. At least 63 Canadians were killed.

Canadian Foreign Minister Francois-Philippe Champagne said Canadian officials need “to be quickly granted access to Iran to provide consular services, help with identification of the deceased and take part in the investigation of the crash.”

“Canada and Canadians have many questions which will need to be answered.”

Ukraine Security Council Secretary Oleksiy Danylov said they want investigators to have access to the site to search for possible missile debris after viewing unverified images purportedly showing debris resembling the Tor missile system.

He referred to an unverified image circulated on Iranian social media purportedly showing the debris of a Russian-made Tor-M1 surface-to-air missile of the kind used by the Iranian military.

Mr. Danylov said the Ukrainian team includes experts who participated in the investigation of the shooting down of Malaysian Airlines Flight MH17 on July 17, 2014.

UPDATE: Multiple news outlets are now reporting U.S. officials are “confident” Ukrainian International Airlines (UIA) Flight 752 was accidentally shot down by Iran. The consensus for the culprit appears to be as PPD initially reported—the SA-15 Gauntlet, otherwise known as the Russian-designed Tor missile system.

The U.S. Pentagon "increasingly suspects" UIA Flight

Politics

Border Wall Ruling a Major Victory for Trump Administration

An American flag flying behind barbed wire at the U.S. southern border with Mexico. (Photo: AdobeStock)
An American flag flying behind barbed wire at the U.S. southern border with Mexico. (Photo: AdobeStock)

The U.S. Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals lifted a lower court’s nationwide injunction prohibiting the use of military construction funds for a border wall. The decision is a major victory for the Trump Administration.

“This is a victory for the rule of law,” White House Press Secretary Stephanie Grisham said in a statement. “We are committed to keeping our borders secure, and we will finish the wall.”

The White House said the lower court issued an “illegitimate nationwide injunction” and the Fifth Circuit’s decision “has allowed vital border wall construction to move forward.”

In December, a federal district court judge in El Paso, Texas, issued a nationwide injunction blocking the administration from using the funds.

The 2 to 1 ruling—while avoiding the merits of the case—still means $3.6 billion will be freed up. That’s a large portion of the total allocated for building roughly 500 miles of border wall by the end of 2020.

Appointees of Donald Trump and Ronald Reagan were in the majority, while an appointee of Barack Obama was in dissent.

The majority cited the U.S. Supreme Court, which in July allowed the Trump Administration to move forward with related plans to use military funds for the construction of a border wall, or barrier.

The court also noted the plaintiffs—the county of El Paso, Texas, and the illegal immigration advocacy group Border Network for Human Rights—likely lack standing to bring a legal challenge.

President Donald J. Trump, who made the construction of a wall on the southern border a central campaign promise, tweeted after the decision.

This article will be updated when the opinion is released.

Decision Underscores Importance of Judicial Appointments

For many plaintiffs, the U.S. Courts of Appeals—the nation’s second-highest court—has the final say unless the High Court decides to hear their case. Nine of those 13 circuit courts were dominated by Democratic appointees when the president took office.

In 2019, President Trump set another record for the appointment of federal judges in his third year, and has done so each year since his inauguration. That includes a total 50 circuit-court appointments, five of which on the Fifth Circuit.

In total, President Trump has put 187 judges on the federal bench. The surpasses the 169 and 166 new judges George W. Bush and Bill Clinton placed in their first three years, respectively.

The Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals lifted

Economy

The U.S. Labor Department (DOL) reported initial jobless claims fell 9,000 to 214,000 for the first week of 2020 ending on January 4, again beating the forecast. The previous week’s level was revised slightly higher by 1,000 to 223,000.

Forecasts for initial jobless claims ranged from a low of 213,000 to a high of 222,000. The consensus forecast was 219,000.

The 4-week moving average was 224,000, a decrease of 9,500 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 250 from 233,250 to 233,500.

Lagging Jobless Claims Data

U.S. initial jobless claims graph on a tablet screen. (Photo: AdobeStock)
U.S. initial jobless claims graph on a tablet screen. (Photo: AdobeStock)

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate remained unchanged at a very low 1.2% for the week ending December 28. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment for that week was 1,803,000, an increase of 75,000.

The 4-week moving average came in higher by 33,000 to 1,744,750, up from the previous week’s unrevised average of 1,711,750. The gains in lagging jobless claims data are from trailing previous weeks.

No state was triggered “on” the Extended Benefits program during the week ending December 21, the Labor Department said.

The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending December 21 were in Alaska (2.8), Connecticut (2.2), New Jersey (2.2), West Virginia (2.1), Montana (2.0), Pennsylvania (2.0), Minnesota (1.9), Washington (1.9), Illinois (1.8), Massachusetts (1.8), and Rhode Island (1.8).

The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending December 28 were in New Jersey (+9,854), Michigan (+8,058), Pennsylvania (+6,185), Ohio (+5,309), and Massachusetts (+3,967), while the largest decreases were in California (-15,642), Texas (-3,642), Florida (-1,530), North Carolina (-1,460), and Arizona (-1,139).

The Labor Department reported initial jobless claims

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