‘Iran Went On A Terror Spree Funded by the Money from the Deal’
President Donald J. Trump said during remarks at the White House the missiles Iran fired were paid for with the funds made available by the nuclear deal negotiation by the previous administration.
“Iran’s hostilities substantially increased after the foolish nuclear deal was signed in 2013,” the president said, noting “they chanted death to America the day the deal was signed.”
“Then, Iran went on a terror spree funded by the money from the deal and created hell in Yemen, Syria, Lebanon, Afghanistan and Iraq. The missiles fired last night at us and our allies were paid for with the funds made available by the last administration.”
Iran launched a ballistic missile attack from its territory at targets in Iraq Wednesday morning (local time), an escalation Tehran claimed was retaliation for the death of Quds Force Major-General Qassem Soleimani.
“No American or Iraqi lives were lost because of the precautions taken, the dispersal of forces and an early warning system that worked very well,” the president said.
The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) provided Iran with collective funds and sanction relief worth upwards of $150 billion. The Obama Administration also secretly sent pallets of cash to Iran totaling $1.7 billion.
Ben Rhodes, Mr. Obama’s Deputy National Security Adviser for Strategic Communications, admitted to the New York Times the administration lied to the American people, Congress, and our allies in how they “spun” the Iran nuclear deal.
President Trump withdrew the U.S. from the “defective” nuclear deal in May 2018, saying it failed to prevent Tehran’s nuclear ambitions. He called other nations in the JCPOA to join the U.S. in pushing for a new deal.
“The time has come for the United Kingdom, France, Russia and China to recognize this reality. Peace and stability cannot prevail in the Middle East as long as Iran is allowed to foment violence.”
“Let’s work together to make a deal with Iran to make the world a better place.”
ADP: Private Sector Employment Gains Strong and Widespread at the End of 2019
The U.S. economy added 202,000 private sector jobs in December, according to ADP’s monthly report on total nonfarm private employment. The ADP National Employment Report showed private sector employment gains were stronger than expected and widespread at the end of the year.
“As 2019 came to a close, we saw expanded payrolls in December,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute. “The service providers posted the largest gain since April, driven mainly by professional and business services.”
“Job creation was strong across companies of all sizes, led predominantly by midsized companies.”
Forecasts ranged from a low of 135,000 to a high of 180,000. The consensus forecast was only 157,000, making for a beat of 45,000. The total for the month of November, which was initially reported as a miss amid weak data, was revised significantly higher from 67,000 to 124,000.
Mid-sized businesses with 50 to 499 employees led with 88,000 private sector jobs, followed by small businesses with 1 to 49 employees adding 69,000. That bodes well for wage gains, which have been historically high.
Large businesses with 500 employees or more added 45,000 private sector jobs.
Goods-producing private payrolls increased by 29,000, while service-providing private payrolls rose by 173,000. Franchise employment increased by 59,000.
The ADP National Employment Report for January 2020 will be released at 8:15 a.m. ET on February 5, 2020.
Iran Missile Attack Largely Ceremonial, Tehran Blinks
U.S. President Donald Trump, left, speaks about tax reform on Wednesday September 27, 2017. Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, right, speaks in a campaign rally for May 19, 2017.
Iran launched a ballistic missile attack from its territory at targets in Iraq Wednesday morning (local time), an escalation Tehran claimed was retaliation for the death of Quds Force Major-General Qassem Soleimani.
Here’s what you need to know about the Iran missile attack without the noise, hysteria and bias.
The attack appears to be largely ceremonial. Initial assessments report there were no U.S. casualties. U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) said Iran launched 15 ballistic missiles, including 10 that targeted Al-Assad Air Base and 1 that targeted Irbil.
Four of the ballistic missiles failed.
U.S. Prepared for Attack
The Pentagon said the U.S. expected the attacks and took “all appropriate measures” beforehand. Sources tell PPD the U.S. not only expected the attack but also had advanced warning.
“At approximately 5:30 p.m. (EST) on January 7, Iran launched more than a dozen ballistic missiles against U.S. military and coalition forces in Iraq,” Assistant to the Secretary of Defense for Public Affairs Jonathan Hoffman, said in a statement.
“It is clear that these missiles were launched from Iran and targeted at least two Iraqi military bases hosting U.S. military and coalition personnel at Al-Assad and Irbil.”
The Pentagon said targeted bases have “been on high alert due to indications that the Iranian regime planned” to launch such an attack.
Does Iran’s Escalation Match Its Rhetoric?
Still, it is the first time Iran launched an attack against U.S. targets from within its borders—though technically, they were Iraqi targets—and claimed responsibility.
In previous attacks leading up to the escalation, Kataib Hezbollah and other Shi’ite militia groups used Katyusha rocket launchers, and shoulder-fired missiles to attack U.S. targets.
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said Wednesday the ballistic missile attacks were “a slap in the face” to the United States. Khamenei added the U.S. should leave the region.
“Military action like this is not sufficient,” he said. “What is important is ending the corrupting presence of America in the region.”
President Trump’s Response
President Donald J. Trump tweeted following the attacks last night, but decided not to address the nation until the morning.
“All is well! Missiles launched from Iran at two military bases located in Iraq. Assessment of casualties & damages taking place now. So far, so good!” the president tweeted. “We have the most powerful and well equipped military anywhere in the world, by far! I will be making a statement tomorrow morning.”
All is well! Missiles launched from Iran at two military bases located in Iraq. Assessment of casualties & damages taking place now. So far, so good! We have the most powerful and well equipped military anywhere in the world, by far! I will be making a statement tomorrow morning.
President Trump huddled with his national security team at the White House Tuesday evening, and sources tell PPD advisors believe this was a face-saving move.
Currently, the assessments have been split among two groups.
Calculated For-Show Strike
First, Iran blinked. Tehran needed to act to appear to be avenging the death of Soleimani, but feared repercussions. So, they fired at and missed targets they knew would not cause U.S. casualties.
That assessment is bolstered by Iranian state media reports. Iran television claimed—without a shred of evidence—the attacks killed “at least 80 terrorist U.S. soldiers,” successfully hit helicopters and drones at Ain Al-Assad.
Calculated (Low) Risk Strike
Second, Iran took a calculated risk, but still picked targets they knew were unlikely to cause U.S. casualties.
Both assessments amount to a foreign policy victory for the Trump Administration and the United States. President Trump ordered an airstrike that killed Iran’s top military strategist and, in response, they shot 15 ballistics missiles, ineffectively.
Iraq has called the attack a violation of their sovereignty, a result that will no doubt inflame anger already building toward Iran among the Iraqi people.
Avenging Soleimani Risks His Iraq Strategy
As People’s Pundit Daily (PPD) previously reported, Soleimani instructed Shi’ite militia allies in Iraq to escalate attacks against U.S. targets as part of an elaborate strategy to redirect rising public outrage away from Iran and toward the United States.
The ongoing demonstrations in Iraq started as protests against corruption in the post-Saddam Hussein government. They have since escalated into calls to overthrow and to stop Iranian intervention in Iraq.
Iraqi Prime Minister Adil Abdul Mahdi, who announced on November 29 that he would resign, confirmed Iraq received “an official verbal message” from Iran shortly after midnight. That was prior to the missile attacks.
“Iraq refuses any violation of its sovereignty and attacks on its lands, the government continues its efforts to prevent escalation,” Mahdi said in a statement. “This serious crisis threatening the region and the world with a devastating war.”
While Mahdi’s view will soon be irrelevant, it is rising anti-Iranian sentiment among the public that worried Soleimani.
The Iran missile attacks in Iraqi territory, which may well have claimed Iraqi life, will undoubtedly have the effect Soleimani had hoped to avoid.
What Now?
President Trump will address the nation and will answer that question. Sources tell PPD that the administration prepared for the inevitable attack, and put together two contingencies.
If U.S. casualties were incurred, the military response would’ve been overwhelming, hitting 52 targets with a combination of F-15 Eagles and B-52 bombers.
On Monday, the U.S. deployed B-52s, which are based at Minot Air Force Base, N.D., and Barksdale Air Force Base, La., to Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean.
A B-52 assigned to the 23rd Bomb Squadron at Minot Air Force Base, N.D., flies over an aerospace show in Malaysia, March 26, 2019. (Photo: U.S. Navy)
Further, The USS Harry Truman aircraft carrier strike group has been in the Gulf of Oman accompanied by guided-missile destroyers, a guided-missile cruiser and at least one submarine.
The U.S. Navy warships and submarine have hundreds of Tomahawks locked with pre-planned targets. The Tomahawk Land Attack Missile is a long-range, all-weather, jet-powered, subsonic cruise missile.
Aircraft Carrier U.S.S. Harry S. Truman steams underway on March 29, 2003 in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea. U.S. Navy / Getty Images File
But the zero U.S. casualty count allows President Trump to decide on either a smaller targeted strike—such as the missile systems used to launch the attack or oil fields—or no strike at all.
While Iran has threatened to attack targets in Israel and the United Arab Emirates if the U.S. retaliates, the ball is in the president’s court. He can do whatever he likes with it and, judging by their calculation, Iran clearly understands that.
U.S. Trade Deficit With China Trended Lower in 2019
The U.S. trade deficit for goods and services narrowed $3.9 billion to $43.1 billion in November, down 8.2% from $46.9 billion in October, revised.
If it holds, it’ll be the lowest level since Donald J. Trump took office and the lowest since October 2016, when it was just $42.0 billion. The trade deficit fell to $43,103 (millions) in February 2017, slightly higher than the $43,086 (millions) for November 2019.
Forecasts ranged from a deficit as high as $49.3 billion to as low as $43.0 billion. The consensus forecast was $43.9 billion.
The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported exports rose by $1.4 billion to $208.6 billion in November, while imports fell by $2.5 billion to $251.7 billion.
The narrowing of the goods and services deficit was fueled by a $3.9 billion decline in the goods deficit to $63.9 billion and a largely unchanged $20.8 billion services surplus ($-0.1 billion).
Year-to-date, the trade deficit for goods and services fell 0.7% or $3.9 billion from the same period in 2018. Exports fell less than $0.1 billion or less than 0.1%, while imports fell $3.9 billion or 0.1%.
Three-Month Moving Averages
The three-month average ending in November for goods and services deficit fell $3.5 billion to $47.0 billion. Average exports declined $0.2 billion to $207.8 billion, while average imports fell $3.7 billion to $254.9 billion.
Year-over-year, the average goods and services deficit fell $8.4 billion from the three months ending in November 2018. Average exports declined by $1.5 billion, while average imports fell by $9.9 billion.
U.S. Trade Deficit With China
The politically-sensitive U.S. trade deficit with China trended down in 2019 after ballooning in 2018 during trade negotiations and tensions. The U.S.-China trade deficit was $80.8 billion in the first quarter (Q1). In Q2 and Q3, it fell to $79.9 billion and $77.3 billion, respectively.
The politically-sensitive U.S. trade in goods deficit with China decreased $2.2 billion to $25.6 billion in November. Exports rose $1.4 billion to $8.9 billion while imports declined by $0.8 billion to $34.5 billion.
The narrowing of the U.S. trade deficit for goods and services is a net positive for gross domestic product (GDP).
Trump’s Cabinet Was Unanimous on Decision to Kill Soleimani
Iranian Major-General Qassem Soleimani instructed Shi’ite militia allies in Iraq to escalate attacks against U.S. targets as part of an elaborate strategy to redirect rising public outrage away from Iran and toward the United States.
Multiple military, intelligence and security sources tell PPD the Quds Force commander met with militia allies in Baghdad back in October, during the pause in protests known as the Tishreen Revolution.
Unprecedented Civil Unrest in Iraq
The ongoing demonstrations started as protests against corruption in the post-Saddam Hussein government. They have since escalated into calls to overthrow the administration and to stop Iranian intervention in Iraq.
The protests briefly paused on October 8 and resumed on October 25.
Prime Minister Adil Abdul-Mahdi announced on November 29 that he would resign. On December 26, President Barham Salih submitted a letter of resignation.
Soleimani’s Shi’ite Strategy Session
The Shi’ite strategy session was called amid that increasing backlash to Tehran’s growing influence in Iraq.
Soleimani, 62, told Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis—a top ally of Iran in Iraq who was also killed in the airstrike on January 2—to increase attacks using more sophisticated weaponry supplied by Iran. The plan ultimately aimed to provoke military responses by the United States.
Ominously, the meeting was held at a villa on the banks of the Tigris River across from the U.S. embassy complex in Baghdad that was attacked on December 31, 2019. Crowds of protestors and militia stormed the embassy in retaliation for U.S. airstrikes against bases for Kataib Hezbollah, a Shi’ite militia founded by Muhandis and trained in Iran.
The U.S. launched airstrikes on the bases after more than 30 rockets were fired at an Iraqi military base near Kirkuk on December 27. A U.S. civilian contractor was killed and four U.S. servicemen were wounded. Two Iraqi servicemen were also wounded in the attack.
U.S. Marines assigned to Special Purpose Marine Air-Ground Task Force-Crisis Response-Central Command in Kuwait regained control of the embassy on January 1. The next day, President Donald J. Trump ordered the airstrike that killed Soleimani and Muhandis.
Soleimani the Terrorist, Not General
“Soleimani was plotting imminent and sinister attacks against American diplomats and military personnel in Iraq,” President Trump said. “But we caught him in the act, and terminated him.”
The president’s decision to kill Soleimani was unanimously supported by members of the Cabinet. President Trump said his administration’s policy is “ambiguous to any terrorist who harms or intends to harm any American.”
In April 2019, the Trump Administration announced the U.S. designated the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) a foreign terrorist organization (FTO). It marked the first time the United States had ever named a part of another government a FTO.
Muhandis, who was sentenced to death in absentia in Kuwait for his role in the 1983 U.S. and French embassy bombings, was also a designated terrorist.
The unprecedented decision put the IRGC on par with Hamas and Hezbollah. It had already been labeled a terrorist organization by Saudi Arabia and Bahrain.
The IRGC, which translates to Army of Guardians of the Islamic Revolution, is a branch of Iran’s Armed Forces founded after the 1979 Revolution by order of Ayatollah Khomeini.
The Quds Force, or Jerusalem Force, is an elite special operations unit tasked with handling foreign operations. It typically does not engage directly. Instead, the Quds Force supports and relies on other terrorist organizations and allies.
That’s precisely what Soleimani was doing before and during the time of his death in Iraq. Several weeks before the meeting in Baghdad, he ordered the IRGC to move Katyusha multi-rocket launchers, shoulder-fired missiles and other more sophisticated weaponry across the border.
Plausible Deniability for Iran
Two weeks later at the villa meeting, Soleimani instructed allied commanders to form new, unknown paramilitary groups to carry out rocket attacks on U.S. targets.
While Kataib Hezbollah was tasked with carrying out the plan—largely due to the group’s ability to use drones to scout targets for the Katyusha rocket launchers—Soleimani wanted plausible deniability for Iran and Shi’ite militia allies.
U.S. military and intelligence sources claim forensics indicate the rockets tie the attacks to Iran, particularly through Kataib Hezbollah and Asaib Ahl al-Haq.
Three more rockets were fired from the Green Zone last night.
But thus far, Soleimani’s plan executed by Muhandis was not eliciting their desired military responses by the United States, ones large enough to cause significant civilian casualties.
The two men were expected to discuss future attacks to provoke larger, more controversial U.S. responses when they and five others were killed in their vehicles leaving the Baghdad airport.
Looking at the totality of economic data, there’s more than a solid argument that big media coverage bordering on hysteria has repeatedly hurt confidence in the U.S. economy.
This has become a pattern.
In August 2018, anti-Trump economists were speculating over “what will cause the next recession.” The New York Times warned of “clouds that darken Trump’s economic view.”
It proved little more than biased speculation disguised as “analysis” as the U.S. economy posted a 3% annual rate of growth in 2018. That didn’t stop a hard push for recession in December, one that failed but lasted until March.
In the summer of 2019, big media obsessed over a temporary inverted yield curve. It was so overhyped that both the current and former chairs of the Federal Reserve felt compelled to shoot it down.
“There’s no one thing that’s despondent of all financial conditions. The yield curve is one thing we follow carefully.”
We’re not forecasting a recession,” Chairman Jerome Powell said in his presser for September.
Consumer sentiment is an excellent indicator to observe how big media bias and partisanship can impact—and even hinder—economic data.
Under the Trump Administration, the Sentiment Index has posted the highest sustained level since the all-time record in the late 1990s. Yet, Democrats are reporting partisanship, not the data-supported economic reality shared by the rest of the country.
During the Obama Administration, the average gap in sentiment between Democrats and Republicans was just 18.7 points. Since Donald Trump took office, a period of historic optimism rivaled only by the one from January 1998 to December 2000, the average gap has been 41.6 points.
Independents, who represent the largest group and are less likely to report their partisan views, hold very favorable expectations. The mean for independents is 96.6 juxtaposed to 97.0 for all consumers.
Construction Spending for Single-Family Homes Continues to Gain
Total construction spending came in at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,324.1 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau reported. That’s an increase of 0.6% (±1.0%) from the revised October estimate of $1,316.8 billion and 4.1% (±1.5%) higher than the November 2018 estimate of $1,271.4 billion.
Forecasts ranged from a low of 0.1% to a high of 1.0%. The consensus forecast was 0.3%.
Despite volatility in the report, a continued bright spot has been rising construction spending for single-family homes. Single-family home construction is up 1.2% from November.
Private Construction Spending
Spending on private construction came in at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $985.5 billion, 0.4% (±0.7%) higher than the revised October estimate of $981.1 billion.
Residential construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $536.1 billion in November, or a 1.9% (±1.3%) gain from the revised October estimate of $526.3 billion.
Nonresidential construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $449.4 billion in November, or down 1.2% (±0.7%) from the revised October estimate of $454.7 billion.
Public Construction Spending
The seasonally adjusted annual rate of public construction spending was estimated at $338.6 billion, up 0.9% (±1.5%) from the revised October estimate of $335.7 billion.
Educational construction was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $83.9 billion, unchanged from (±1.5%) the revised October estimate of $84.0 billion. Highway construction came in at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $96.4 billion, up 2.2% (±3.9%) from the revised October estimate of $94.3 billion.
The U.S. Labor Department reported initial jobless claims fell 2,000 to a seasonally adjusted 222,000 for the week ending December 28. The 4-week average increased by 4,750 to 233,250.
That’s the highest level for the average since January 27, 2018, when it was 235,750.
Forecasts ranged from a low of 216,000 to a high of 234,000. The consensus forecast was 222,000.
Lagging Jobless Claims Data
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate remained unchanged at a very low 1.2% for the week ending December 14.
The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending December 21 was 1,728,000, an increase of 5,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised higher by 4,000 from 1,719,000 to 1,723,000.
The 4-week moving average came in at 1,711,750, a gain of 7,250 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised higher by 1,000 from 1,703,500 to 1,704,500.
No state was triggered “on” the Extended Benefits program during the week ending December 7.
The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending December 14 were in Alaska (3.2), New Jersey (2.2), Pennsylvania (2.1), West Virginia (2.1), Connecticut (2.0), Montana (2.0), the Virgin Islands (2.0), California (1.9), Minnesota (1.9), Illinois (1.8), and Washington (1.8).
The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending December 21 were in Missouri (+3,246), Iowa (+2,423), California (+2,422), New Jersey (+2,195), and Illinois (+1,593), while the largest decreases were in Texas (-2,356), New York (-2,046), Georgia (-1,710), West Virginia (-748), and Pennsylvania (-724).
Job Cut Leaders Now Have Hiring Plans for 2020: Challenger
Closeup view of a business man cutting a piece of paper with the word jobs written on it, concept for job cut reports. (Photo: AdobeStock)
The Challenger Job Cut report for December finds U.S.-based employers announced the lowest monthly total job cuts (32,843) since July 2018 (27,122).
While 2019 posted the highest annual total since 2015, the fourth highest this decade and 10% higher than 2018, the year-end trend looks positive.
The total number of job cuts for December is 26.3% lower than the 44,569 cuts announced in November and 25.2% lower than the 43,884 announced in the same month last year.
“Confidence was high heading into the last month of the year. With some resolutions occurring in the trade war and strong consumer spending in the fourth quarter, companies appear to be taking a wait-and-see approach as we head into 2020,” said Andrew Challenger, Vice President of Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.
Of the 592,556 cuts announced in 2019, 127,687 were in the fourth quarter (Q4), the lowest for a quarter since 120,879 cuts were announced in Q3 2018.
That was also 4.6% lower than the Q3 2019 total of 133,882 and 26% lower than the same quarter in 2018, when 172,601 cuts were announced. It is the lowest fourth-quarter total since 2017, when 97,292 cuts were announced.
Retailers—which led all sectors in 2019 with 77,475 job cuts—announced 886,515 hiring plans this year, 789,781 of which were seasonal.
Automakers—also saw its highest number of job cut announcements since 2009—and suppliers, announced over 28,000 new jobs. Technology companies announced over 21,000.
Obama Shares Thunder for Record-Tying 12th First-Place Slot
President Donald J. Trump, left, addresses the 72nd United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) at U.N. headquarters in New York, U.S., September 19, 2017, while former President Barack H. Obama, right, addresses the UNGA on September 28, 2015. (Photos: Reuters)
Donald Trump tied Barack Obama for the most admired man in 2019, stealing some record-tying thunder in the annual survey conducted by Gallup since 1948. Mr. Obama has tied the record for 12 consecutive first-place slots.
Michelle Obama, his wife and former first lady, is the most admired woman for the second year in a row. That back-to-back run comes after 25 years of Hillary Clinton finishing first 22 times.
However, the 10% who named Mrs. Obama is down from 15% last year, and during her time as first lady she was named by no more than 8% of Americans.
First Lady Melania Trump finished second with 5%, and former talk show host Oprah Winfrey, Mrs. Clinton and teen climate change activist Greta Thunberg named by 3% of U.S. adults each.
While partisanship had a great deal of impact on all the results, both Presidents Trump and Obama were mentioned by 18% of U.S. adults. Those are in line with Mr. Obama’s numbers in 2018 (19%) and 2017 (17%), all of which are high for a former president.
Dwight Eisenhower is the only other former president who received double-digit mentions at any point after leaving office.
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