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Barack-Obama-2016-White-House-Correspondents-Dinner

President Obama waves after speaking at the dinner. From left: comedian Larry Wilmore, first lady Michelle Obama and Jerry Seib of The Wall Street Journal. (Photo: Susan Walsh/AP)

Let’s take a look at President Obama’s economic legacy. The Washington Examiner opines on President Obama’s remarkable claim that he saved the world economy.

President Obama…wants to be remembered for…[being]…the savior of the American and global economies. “There are things I’m proud of,” he said, citing Obamacare, then added, “Saving the world economy from a Great Depression, that was pretty good.”

Not so fast. Looking at the economy’s anemic numbers the editors are less than impressed.

Obama will end eight years in office without presiding over a thriving economy of the sort America enjoyed in the past. It also suggests that even the mediocre growth of recent years depended on high oil prices, which have collapsed by more than half. This is the bitter fruit of creationist economics, the erroneous belief that government activity can somehow conjure new wealth and value.

The Wall Street Journal is similarly dour about Obama’s economic legacy.

When did Americans decide that 1% or 2% economic growth is acceptable, that puny wage increases are inevitable, and that we should all merely shrug and get used to the country’s diminished expectations? …the first quarter is further evidence of what has been the weakest economic expansion in the postwar era. …All of this continues the slow-or-slower pace of this entire expansion that began nearly seven years ago. Each year has had a similar GDP dip, and growth has never exceeded 2.5% (2010). The American economy hasn’t grown by more than 3% since 2005 (3.3%), the longest such stretch of malaise that we can find in the Bureau of Economic analysis tables going back to 1930. …Faster growth is possible, but it will take better policies.

In a column for Bloomberg, Narayana Kocherlakota, looks at what’s happened and compares it to what CBO projected would happen.

it’s not hard to see why many people are disappointed with the performance of the economy during Obama’s time in office. In January 2009, at the beginning of Obama’s first term, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office issued a 10-year forecast for the U.S. economy, including such indicators as unemployment, gross domestic product, the budget deficit, government debt and interest rates. …The unemployment rate has come closest to expectations. …Elsewhere, the story is less positive. Total income growth in the U.S. has fallen well short of expectations, in both nominal and inflation-adjusted terms. …the federal budget deficit…still much larger than the CBO forecast in 2009 — as is the ratio of government debt to GDP.

Here’s his chart.

Last, but not least, Louis Woodhill shares some numbers that capture Obama’s real legacy.

America’s elites have largely given up on growth, and are now distracting themselves with academic musings about “secular stagnation.” …assuming 2.67% RGDP growth for 2016, Obama will leave office having produced an average of 1.55% growth. This would place his presidency fourth from the bottom of the list of 39*, above only those of Herbert Hoover (-5.65%), Andrew Johnson (-0.70%) and Theodore Roosevelt (1.41%)

What makes this final comparison so damning is that Obama had the comparative good fortune to enter office in the middle of a recession. Which means, all things equal, that his numbers should look very positive.

Instead, he’s managed to compile one of the worst track records.

When I do comparisons, I like using the interactive recession/recovery site of the Minneapolis Federal Reserve, which allows users to compare every recession and recovery since the end of World War II.

Here’s how President Obama (red line) ranks on GDP growth.

As you can see, whether your starting point is the beginning of the recovery or the beginning of the recession, Obama is in last place.

He does slightly better on employment. He still has one of the worst records (again, the red line), but he does beat George W. Bush’s also-anemic performance on job creation.

By the way, some of you may be wondering why the employment data for Obama is so weak when the unemployment rate has significantly fallen.

The answer is that the unemployment rate doesn’t count people who have given up on finding a job, whereas the Minneapolis Fed data counts how many new jobs are being created.

And it’s the amount of people productively employed that matters if we want more economic output, so the Minneapolis Fed data is far more important and revealing than the official unemployment rate numbers.

Unfortunately, Obama and his team haven’t figured out (or simply don’t care) that jobs are more likely to be created when government is smaller rather than bigger.

By the way, this analysis presumably won’t be very compelling for Obama supporters because they’ll simply assert things could have been much worse without his policies.

They may even believe the President’s claim that he saved the American economy from a Great Depression.

But they overlook the fact that the economy normally bounces back quickly from a downturn. It was only during the 1930s, when Hoover and Roosevelt competed to impose bad policy, that a recession became a depression.

The bad news is that President Obama’s policies haven’t helped today’s economy, but the good news is that his policies are nowhere near as harmful as the combined statist agendas of Hoover and Roosevelt.

So if we want to learn a lesson on what works, the economy’s very strong boom under Reagan is a good case study. And if you want to go back further, the anti-Keynesian booms after World War I and World War II also teach important lessons.

P.S. President Obama is completely correct when he points out that America’s economy is generally stronger than European economies. Unfortunately, he doesn’t seem to realize what this implies.

[mybooktable book=”global-tax-revolution-the-rise-of-tax-competition-and-the-battle-to-defend-it” display=”summary” buybutton_shadowbox=”true”]

Economist Dan Mitchell takes a look at

donald-trump-rally-california-costa-mesa

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump greets supporters after a rally, Thursday, April 28, 2016 in Costa Mesa, Calif. (Photo: AP/Chris Carlson)

Republican frontrunner Donald Trump has opened up a 34-point lead over Texas Sen. Ted Cruz in the latest California Republican Primary poll. A new [content_tooltip id=”37972″ title=”SurveyUSA”], which was conducted for KABC Eyewitness News, finds Mr. Trump leading Sen. Cruz with a solid majority, 54% to 20%.

There are 172 delegates up for grabs in The Golden State, which are awarded on a winner-take-most basis. The winner of the statewide vote is awarded 13 delegates, while the remaining 159 delegates are awarded to the plurality winner of the state’s 53 congressional districts. The results of the poll are the latest piece of data indicating the PPD Election Projection Model may be understating The Donald’s delegate haul.

Nevertheless, a sizable win suggested by this survey could undoubtedly help the New York businessman clinch the nomination. Worth noting, in an effort to blunt Mr. Trump’s momentum, Sen. Cruz took the unprecedented step to name former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina as his vice presidential running mate. Mrs. Fiorina, herself a former 2016 Republican presidential candidate, previously resided in California before moving to the D.C. suburbs.

However, despite her high name recognition in the state due to her failed 2010 U.S. Senate bid against incumbent Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer, it doesn’t appear Mrs. Fiorina will be much of an asset to Sen. Cruz.

“Unless Sen. Ted Cruz pulls off an upset tomorrow in Indiana, it would appear Golden State Republicans are ready to put the nomination to bed,” said PPD’s senior political analyst Richard Baris. “Sen. Cruz, and indeed the anti-Trump movement, had high hopes for California. We were never that bullish on his chances, but now are even less so. In the end, it may turn out to be the state that gets Donald Trump over the finish line.”

But before California will have their say, voters in Indiana on Tuesday will have their voice heard. The Hoosier State will award 57 delegates; 30 to the statewide winner and three in each of the state’s nine congressional districts. Mr. Trump currently leads Sen. Cruz, who recently was favored by other analysts to win the state, by double-digits in public and private polling.

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton is leading Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders 58% to 39%.

SurveyUSA interviewed 2,400 California adults from April 27 to April 30. Of the adults, 2,011 were registered to vote in the state of California. Of the California registered voters, 529 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the June Republican presidential primary, 826 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the June Democratic presidential primary, 1,502 were determined to be likely to vote in the June U.S. Senate primary, and 1,683 were determined to be likely to vote in the November general election.

Republican frontrunner Donald Trump has opened up a

ISM-manufacturing-index

The Institute for Supply Management’s Manufacturing Report On Business Survey. (Photo: REUTERS)

The Institute for Supply Management’s gauge of factory activity fell to 50.8 in April from 51.8 in March, missing economists expectations for a slight decline to 51.4. Readings above 50 point to expansion, while those below indicate contraction.

Though economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded for the second consecutive month, it compares to 83-straight months of growth in the overall economy. The decline in the manufacturing sector since the Great Recession has contributed to stagnant wages, as the sector offers considerably higher paying jobs.

MANUFACTURING AT A GLANCE
APRIL 2016
Index Series
Index
Apr
Series
Index
Mar
Percentage
Point
Change
Direction Rate
of
Change
Trend*
(Months)
PMI® 50.8 51.8 -1.0 Growing Slower 2
New Orders 55.8 58.3 -2.5 Growing Slower 4
Production 54.2 55.3 -1.1 Growing Slower 4
Employment 49.2 48.1 +1.1 Contracting Slower 5
Supplier Deliveries 49.1 50.2 -1.1 Faster From
Slower
1
Inventories 45.5 47.0 -1.5 Contracting Faster 10
Customers’ Inventories 46.0 49.0 -3.0 Too Low Faster 3
Prices 59.0 51.5 +7.5 Increasing Faster 2
Backlog of Orders 50.5 51.0 -0.5 Growing Slower 2
Exports 52.5 52.0 +0.5 Growing Faster 2
Imports 50.0 49.5 +0.5 Unchanged From
Contracting
1
OVERALL ECONOMY Growing Slower 83
Manufacturing Sector Growing Slower 2

Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® data is seasonally adjusted for New Orders, Production, Employment and Supplier Deliveries indexes.

*Number of months moving in current direction.

The Institute for Supply Management’s gauge of

Trump-Cruz-Kasich-file

Republican presidential candidates Donald Trump, Ted Cruz and John Kasich campaign in Pennsylvania. (Photos: Getty Images)

A new [content_tooltip id=”39612″ title=”Gravis Marketing”] finds Donald Trump leads Texas Sen. Ted Cruz in Indiana by 17 points, positioning the frontrunner for a big win on Tuesday. The survey by Gravis, a nonpartisan research firm, has Mr. Trump ahead 44% to 27%, which mirrors the results of other recent polls on the margin.

“Trump appears to have a solid lead in Indiana,” said Doug Kaplan, the President of Gravis Marketing. “If he is able to pull off a win in Indiana, it will be hard to deny him the nomination.”

The New York businessman leads on the PPD average of Indiana Republican Primary polls by 5.8%.

Indiana Primary Poll -- Gravis Marketing

Source: Gravis Marketing

Worth noting, the polling average reflects what now appears to be an outlier showing him trailing his closest rival. The Gravis results are also in stark contrast to a IPFW/Mike Downs Center for Indiana Politics poll showing Sen. Cruz leading by 16 points. As PPD explained, the samples were not weighted, at all, and the interviews began on April 13. No information was provided for the results regarding the corresponding days, which makes it impossible to identify a trend in either direction.

Excluding the outlier, Mr. Trump leads Sen. Cruz by a significantly larger average margin of 41.3% to 32.4%.

Sen. Cruz, hoping to blunt some of the momentum coming off of a six-state losing streak, announced former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina as his vice presidential nominee. He also landed the endorsement of Indiana Gov. Mike Pence, who raised eyebrows by praising Mr. Trump beforehand.

Gov. Pence tried to firm up that endorsement in an op-ed Sunday, but it is becoming clear to Cruz campaign operatives that it didn’t have the intended impact on the ground.

Indiana Primary Poll -- Gravis Marketing

Source: Gravis Marketing

According to the Gravis Poll, nearly a fifth of the Republican primary electorate identifies as an independent, while nearly 8 in 10 say they are Republicans. Further, a whopping 71 describe themselves as either “very conservative” or “slightly conservative,” both of which are blocs that Mr. Trump has been able to carry over Sen. Cruz. In primary contests to date, Sen. Cruz has only been able to consolidate the “very conservative” vote in the Great Plains states.

Indiana Primary Poll -- Gravis Marketing

Source: Gravis Marketing

On Sunday, a separate [content_tooltip id=”39829″ title=”NBC/WSJ/Marist”] was released that found Mr. Trump leading Sen. Cruz in Indiana by 15 points, 49% to 34%. The results from both polls now confirm internal polling data obtained by PPD earlier this week.

“What we have seen between public and private polling is that Sen. Cruz has a low ceiling in the low 30s,” said Richard Baris, PPD’s senior political analyst. “The aggregate data doesn’t suggest the same movement behind Sen. Cruz that we saw in Wisconsin.”

There are 57 delegates up for grabs in the Indiana Republican Primary on Tuesday May 3. While it’s not a must-win for Mr. Trump–though it would make his path significantly easier–it has become the last stand for Sen. Cruz and the anti-Trump forces.

“This is it. Game. Set. Match,” said Baris. “That’s the reality no matter what you hear from Mr. Cruz on Tuesday or even Wednesday morning. If Donald Trump beats the senator in Indiana on Tuesday, there are those previously loyal to the #NeverTrump movement that have told us it will be time to pack it in. If Sen. Cruz doesn’t recognize that, then all he will be doing is helping to elect Hillary Clinton.”

Gravis Marketing, a nonpartisan research firm, conducted a random survey of 379 likely Republican Primary voters in Indiana. The poll was conducted from April 28th to the 29th and has a margin of error of ± 5% at a 95% confidence level. The total may not round to 100% because of rounding. The polls were conducted using live telephone calls to landlines and mobile phone numbers of registered voters in Indiana and weighted by anticipated voting demographics.

A new Gravis Marketing Poll finds Donald

Bernie-Sanders-National-Press-Club

Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders holds a press conference at the National Press Club in Washington, D.C., on Sunday. (Photo: Getty Images)

Sen. Bernie Sanders predicted Sunday that Hillary Clinton would not win enough pledged delegates to clinch the nomination before the Democratic convention in Philadelphia. With his fundraising haul falling sharply in April, the self-proclaimed democratic socialist made his most forceful pitch to and condemnation of superdelegates in states he’s won in “landslides.”

Speaking at the National Press Club in Washington, D.C., Sen. Sanders claimed that Mrs. Clinton “will need superdelegates to take her over the top at the convention in Philadelphia. In other words, it will be a contested convention.”

Sen. Sanders said they should “seriously consider” switching their support to him.

“In the state of Washington, we won that caucus with almost 73 percent of the vote there — 73 percent of the vote. In anybody’s opinion, that is a massive landslide. But at this point Secretary Clinton has 10 superdelegates from the state of Washington, we have zero,” Sen. Sanders said, citing an example of a state where he won the popular vote by a large margin but did not get the backing of the superdelegates. “I would ask the superdelegates from the state of Washington to respect the wishes from the people in their state and the votes they have cast.”

In April, the Vermont senator not only suffered a series of defeats but raised just $25.8 million, a healthy haul no doubt, yet far shy of his recent record-breakers. That number, which was raised almost entirely online, is roughly $20 million less than the $46 million he hauled in for the month of March. Still, Mrs. Clinton reportedly raised about $27 million in March, not much more than Sanders in April.

Mrs. Clinton, by some estimates has 90% of the delegates needed. However, she currently has 1,645 pledge delegates and 520 superdelegates, while Sanders has 1,318 delegates and 39 superdelegates. Mrs. Clinton and Sen. Sanders need a total 2,383 delegates to secure the Democratic nomination. After Mrs. Clinton’s bigger-than-anticipated victory in New York, which ended his 7-state winning streak and was followed up by wins in 3 of the 4 Northeastern states last week, Sen. Sanders admitted that it would be a steep him for him to climb.

“For us to win the majority of pledged delegates, we need to win 710 out of the remaining 1083,” Sanders said. “That is 65 percent. That is, admittedly, a tough road to climb, but not an impossible one. And we intend to fight for every vote and delegate remaining.”

Sen. Bernie Sanders predicted that Hillary Clinton

Mike Pence Ted Cruz

Indiana Gov. Mike Pence, left, reaffirmed what was a tepid endorsement of Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, right, in an op-ed Sunday before his state’s primary on Tuesday.

Indiana Gov. Mike Pence tried to firm up his endorsement of Texas Sen. Ted Cruz in an op-ed published Sunday in the Indianapolis Star. Gov. Pence endorsed Sen. Cruz on Friday, but only after he praised Donald Trump for his focus on jobs and other issues important to Hoosier State voters.

“In making my decision to support Ted, I am guided by the principles best espoused by former President Ronald Reagan,” the Republican governor wrote. “I am a Reagan Republican; drawn to his vision of less taxes, less government, traditional values and a strong military. Ted articulates that same agenda with an unwavering devotion to our Constitution, the sanctity of life, and the freedoms enshrined in the Bill of Rights.”

The Indiana Republican Primary is on Tuesday, May 3 and the latest polls–both public and private–show Mr. Trump ahead of Sen. Cruz by at least 15 points. Gov. Pence first endorsed Mr. Cruz on Friday, but it was a tepid endorsement that offered more praise for Mr. Trump than the senator.

“I particularly want to commend Donald Trump, who I think has given voice to the frustration of millions of working Americans with a lack of progress in Washington D.C.,” Pence said Friday on Greg Garrison’s radio program on WIBC.

However, on Sunday following the op-ed, Mr. Trump called Gov. Pence’s endorsement of Sen. Cruz “the weakest endorsement anyone has seen in a long time.”

“If you really take a look at Mike Pence, I think he gave me more of an endorsement than Ted Cruz,” Mr. Trump said on “Fox News Sunday.” “His donors and special interests obviously made him give an endorsement.”

“It’s over. I think it’s over now. Cruz cannot win,” Trump added. “I’m leading him by millions and millions of votes, and I’m leading him by 400 delegates. He cannot win.”

Indiana Gov. Mike Pence tried to firm

Trump-Knight-Cruz-Indiana

Donald Trump, left, was joined by former Indiana University coach Bobby Knight at a rally in Indianapolis on Wednesday, April 27, while Sen. Ted Cruz, right, takes questions from the media before a rally at the Johnson County Fairgrounds in Franklin, Ind., Monday, April 25, 2016. (Photos: AP/Michael Conroy)

A new Indiana Republican Primary poll confirms Donald Trump has a double-digit lead over Sen. Ted Cruz, mirroring internal polling data obtained by PPD earlier this week. A [content_tooltip id=”39829″] finds Mr. Trump leading Sen. Cruz by 15 points, 49% to 34%. Ohio Gov. John Kasich, who refused to tell his voters to support Sen. Cruz, was polling at 13%.

Worth noting, these numbers are almost identical to the results of internal campaign polling from the Trump campaign. They are also in stark contrast to a IPFW/Mike Downs Center for Indiana Politics poll showing Sen. Cruz leading by 16 points. As PPD explained, the samples were not weighted, at all, and the interviews began on April 13. No information was provided for the results regarding the corresponding days, which makes it impossible to identify a trend in either direction.

“Like I said, the Cruz campaign doesn’t even believe they are leading and admit they once had a lead,” said PPD’s senior political analyst Richard Baris. “It was never as large as that poll suggested. We never think it’s a good idea to dismiss any poll as an outlier outright, but I am more than skeptical to say the least. Now that we have more reliable pollsters releasing data, one that has shown a propensity to underestimate Donald Trump’s support, it’s safe to assume it was an outlier.”

Overall, Sen. Cruz trails Mr. Trump by a much smaller margin on the PPD average of polls. However, recent news of the Cruz-Kasich alliance isn’t going over very well with Republican primary voters in The Hoosier State, as 58% say they disapprove of the two “teaming up in Indiana and doing everything possible to beat Trump.” More than a fifth (22%) said it impacted their inevitable decision.

Mr. Trump is also the second choice for nearly a fifth (18%) of primary voters, which would put him over the 50-percent threshold. That undercuts the oft-made claim and narrative pushed by the Cruz campaign and pundits, which argued Mr. Trump would lose in a one-on-one matchup. PPD has never subscribed to that rather statistically impossible scenario and, in fact, has pushed back on it the entire cycle.

Sen. Cruz had hoped a last-minute endorsement from Indiana Gov. Mike Pence would give him a head of steam going into Tuesday, but his overall approval rating is only 43%. Further, Gov. Pence didn’t exactly give the Texas senator a ringing endorsement, spending the first half of the interview praising Mr. Trump for talking about the impact immigration and trade have had on jobs.

As PPD previously reported, The Hooiser State has bled manufacturing jobs during the period impacted by the North American Free Trade Agreement and the World Trade Organization. Mexico and China, two countries repeated cited by the frontrunner, have been top benefactors of that economic exodus.

While Mr. Trump hopes to put the Republican nomination to bed by defeating Sen. Cruz in Indiana, his rivals are hoping to deny him the 1,237 delegates needed to clinch the nomination. As we’ve seen in previous states, at least as of late, primary voters still believe he should get the nomination if he fails to secure the majority. A whopping 64% of GOP primary voters in Indiana say the “candidate with the most votes in the primaries” should get the nod.

Mr. Trump surpassed Mitt Romney in the popular vote following his five-state sweep last week and is now on track to blow past the record set by former President George W. Bush in 2000.

There are 57 delegates up for grabs in the Indiana Republican Primary on Tuesday May 3. While it’s not a must-win for Mr. Trump–though it would make his path significantly easier–it has become the last stand for Sen. Cruz and the anti-Trump forces.

“This is it,” Baris said. “No matter what you hear on Tuesday or maybe even Wednesday morning. If The Donald beats the senator on Tuesday, there are those previously loyal to the #NeverTrump movement that have told us it will be time to pack it in. If Sen. Cruz doesn’t recognize that, then all he will be doing is helping to elect Hillary Clinton.”

Baris also said that there hasn’t been the alignment of the political stars akin to what took place in Wisconsin, where Sen. Cruz was able to pull off a win and buy himself a few more weeks. However, weeks before the primary there was a measurable movement toward Sen. Cruz, which has not been the case in Indiana. In fact, the trend has been moving against him.

“He’ll have a difficult decision to make if he can’t pull off an upset.”

A new Indiana Republican Primary poll confirms

Bernie-Sanders-Pittsburgh

Vermont socialist Sen. Bernie Sanders holds a rally in Pittsburg, Penn., on March 31, 2016.

I’m a proud advocate and defender of capitalism for the simple reason that it is a system that is consistent with human freedom while also producing mass prosperity that was unimaginable for much of human history.

Jurisdictions that embrace capitalism enjoy great progress while nations that veer in the other direction suffer economic decline, as vividly demonstrated by comparisons such as the relative performance of Hong Kong and Argentina.

argentina-hong-kong

(Source: Angus Maddison/International Liberty)

And, for what it’s worth, the Princess of the Levant even says capitalism is “a sexy word.”

But not everybody agrees.

A column by Greg Sargent in the Washington Post has some very depressing poll numbers.

…the Harvard Institute of Politics has released a new poll of young voters… One key finding in the poll, which surveyed over 3,000 people from ages 18-29, is that these young people see a robust role for government in guaranteeing a right to a basic standard of living, and majorities of them see a large or moderate federal role in regulating the economy and access to health care and higher education. …A narrow majority of respondents in Harvard’s poll said they did not support capitalism.

Writing for Mic, Marie Solis looks at these recent poll numbers and wonders if the real issue is whether “capitalism” is simply an unpalatable word.

A new Harvard University survey found 51% of the participants between the ages 18 and 29 said they do not support capitalism. …The university’s results echo recent findings from Republican pollster Frank Luntz, who surveyed 1,000 Americans between the ages of 18 and 26 and found that 58% of respondents believed socialism to be the “more compassionate” political system when compared to capitalism. …the results may be more indicative of a shifting connotation for the word “capitalism” itself. “The word ‘capitalism’ doesn’t mean what it used to,” he said. “You don’t hear people on the right defending their economic policies using that word anymore.”

Not so fast. I still use “that word.”

But should I? James Pethokoukis of the American Enterprise Institute is sympathetic to the notion that there’s a perception problem. He speculates that the real problem is that capitalism now has a negative connotation.

America’s millennials are hardly some fifth column of communist sympathizers. Nor are they idiots. But they are at least a bit skeptical of “capitalism.” …Yet, oddly, many of those same capitalism skeptics also hold views similar to those of any Ayn Rand-loving free marketeer. For example: Less than a third believe government should play a large role in regulating the economy, reducing income inequality, or stimulating economic growth. Likewise, just a third said they supported socialism.

I fear Pethokoukis is being too optimistic in his reading of the polling data. When you review the questions in the poll and add together those who want a “large” role for government with those who favor a “moderate” role for government, they overwhelm the advocates of laissez-faire who say government should play “little to no role.”

Though maybe I’m just being a pessimist since the folks who want a “moderate” role may think the government today already is playing a “large” role and therefore would want to reduce the size and scope of Washington (though the fact that many people actually blame deregulation for the financial crisis, notwithstanding all the evidence to the contrary, makes me think that would be a Pollyannish interpretation of the polling data).

In any event, let’s return to the issue of whether capitalism is akin to a toxic brand.

Maybe one problem here is the word “capitalism” and what it evokes in the aftermath of the Great Recession and Wall Street bailout. Maybe “capitalism” really isn’t the right word for the free enterprise system, the deep magic that has made America the richest, most powerful nation on Earth. Indeed, wherever and whenever there’s been a bit of economic freedom, amazing things have happened — from Europe in the 1800s to China and India in the late 20th century. …Maybe millennials aren’t capitalists as much as they are “innovists” or “innovationists.” They believe the same dynamic economic system that created those amazing panes of internet-connected glass in their pockets will also create a better world.

It galls me that young people blame capitalism for the financial crisis. Have they ever heard of the Federal Reserve? Or Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac?

Blaming capitalism for the recent mess is like blaming the Red Cross for tornadoes. Sounds like millennials don’t know the difference between capitalism and cronyism.

But I’m digressing again. Time to get back to the central topic. Elizabeth Nolan Brown weighs in with a column for Reason.

…this new poll finds young people torn between “capitalism” and “socialism,” with perhaps little—or, to be more charitable, an ahistorical—understanding of what either means.

I definitely agree with her than millennials are confused about what these terms mean.

But grousing about their lack of knowledge doesn’t solve the problem. But maybe we can make progress if we learn why young people think the way they do.

…words—especially big, emotionally-laden words describing controversial or complicated concepts—connote different things to different people. When pollsters probe young people further about socialism and capitalism, they tend to find that respondents don’t have clear concepts of these economic philosophies. To many millennials, “socialism” doesn’t mean a government-managed economy but something like what we have now, only with more subsidized health care, student-loan forgiveness, and mandatory paid parental leave. …”Capitalism,” meanwhile, doesn’t simply mean private, for-profit enterprise. …Capitalism is Big Banks, Wall Street, “income inequality,” greed. It’s wealthy sociopaths screwing over the little guy, Bernie Madoff, and horrifying sweatshops in China. …However incomplete or caricatured, these are the narratives of capitalism that millennials have grown up with.

She basically comes to the same conclusion as Pethokoukis.

We certainly need to consider whether and how the word can be reclaimed, or if we’re better served talking about the “market economy,” “private enterprise,” “free trade,” or “entrepreneurship.” Millennials love the word entrepreneur… Unlike anti-capitalists of yore, young people today don’t seem to see a tension between turning a profit and living righteously. …As John Della Volpe, polling director at Harvard, puts it, millennials aren’t “rejecting the concept” of capitalism. “The way in which capitalism is practiced, in the minds of young people—that’s what they’re rejecting.”

Indeed, she shares some 2014 polling data that shows there is 2-1 support for free markets, which is significantly better than the level of support for capitalism.

This analysis is persuasive. If we can convince more people to support good policy by talking about “free markets” rather than “capitalism,” then I have no objection to using a more effective phrase or word.

For what it’s worth, opponents of economic liberty such as Karl Marx were among the first to use the term “capitalist” and they obviously meant it as a slur. Which is another reasons why advocates of economic liberty shouldn’t feel obliged to use that word.

That being said, I’m not sure whether using a different word or phrase will make a big difference. I remember when Social Security reform was a big issue between 1995-2005. Proponents were repeatedly told that “private” and “privatization” were words to avoid, so we all dutifully said we were for “personal retirement accounts.”

Which was fine, but it didn’t stop leftists from using “privatization.” Moreover, polling data showed considerable support for the idea, notwithstanding demagoguery from advocates of the status quo.

Now that we’ve discussed whether “capitalism” is a bad word, let’s shift gears and look at whether “liberal” should be a good word.

Professor Daniel Klein says the word has been hijacked by statists.

Here I make a plea, addressed to conservatives and libertarians, regarding the word liberal: please do not describe leftists, progressives, social democrats, or Democrats as “liberal.” …Words have deep-seated cognates and connotations; they have character and history. …The term liberal has always had an abundance of positive connotations: generous, open-minded, tolerant, big-hearted. …to oppose “liberals” almost seems tantamount to opposing modern, open civilization.

And “liberal” originally was linked to economic liberty and free markets.

The inception of liberal as a political term should be credited to the Scottish historian William Robertson, who published a book in 1769 that uses the term repeatedly to mean principles of liberty and commercial freedom. Adam Smith…used the term repeatedly in a signal way to refer to the sort of policy he advocated, a system that gives a strong presumption to individual liberty, and hence commercial and market freedom. …The principles of Adam Smith spread throughout Europe, as did the name he used for them, “liberal.” …so “liberal” political movements were born.

But then the statists began to call themselves liberals.

At the end of the nineteenth century, and thereafter, there came a dramatic shift. Collectivism or statism was on the rise. …Especially during the period 1880 to 1940, there came great changes in the meanings of words, changes in semantics. …people started using words in new ways, and often even announced and emphasized the newness of their usage and meaning. …the statists arrogated the term liberal to themselves… The literature of the so-called New Liberals declaimed openly against individual liberty and in favor of state collectivism and socialistic reform.

Interestingly, the bastardization of “liberal” has primarily occurred in the United States and Canada.

…when we step outside North America, we see that, by and large,liberal still means liberal…read and listen to European Parliament member Daniel Hannan, who often uses liberal proudly in its original sense, and who never calls leftists “liberal,” or to read the journal of the Institute of Economic Affairs (London)—Economic Affairs: A Journal of Liberal Political Economy. …In Prague, for example, the leading freedom-oriented organization is called the Liberal Institute. Where liberal still means liberal, such as in Europe and Latin America, leftists have no reluctance in calling their imaginary bogeyman “neoliberalism.”

I can vouch for that. I’m often accused of being a “liberal” or “neo-liberal” when speaking overseas. It took a while to get used to it, but now I smile and say “yup, that’s me.”

And I’ll sometimes use “classical liberal” and “libertarian” interchangeably when speaking in the United States. But given the way the meaning of the word has changed over time, I don’t think it would make sense to the average person if I referred to myself as “liberal.”

That being said, I fully agree with Professor Klein that we shouldn’t let leftists get away with using that term to describe themselves. I prefer to describe them as “statists.”

P.S. Tom Sowell has a more controversial, but technically accurate, term to describe modern leftists.

I’m a proud advocate of capitalism for

healthcare-capitol-hill

Capitol Hill and healthcare emblem.

What’s the worst loophole (properly defined) in the cluttered internal revenue code?

I think the deduction for state and local taxes is very bad policy since it enables higher tax burdens in states such as California, New Jersey, and Illinois. The exemption for municipal bond interest is another misguided provision since it makes it easier for states to finance spending with debt.

Special favors in the tax code for ethanol also deserve scorn and disdain, and I’m also not a fan of the charitable deduction or the ways in which housing gets preferential treatment.

But if I had to pick just one tax preference to repeal, it would be the so-called healthcare exclusion. This is the policy that enables employers to deduct the cost of health insurance policies they buy for their employees.

You may think that deduction is reasonable. After all, employers also can deduct the wages and salaries they pay their employees. But here’s the catch. Employees pay tax on their wages and salaries, but they don’t have to pay tax on the value of their health insurance, even though such policies obviously are a form of compensation.

Moreover, since this type of compensation is shielded from both income taxes and payroll taxes, the playing field is therefore very tilted, which generates some very perverse results.

First, some background. As part of a broader analysis of the non-taxation of fringe benefits, Scott Greenberg of the Tax Foundation explains how government has created a big incentive to take income in the form of fringe benefits rather than wages and salaries.

…eighty years ago, it was relatively uncommon to offer workers compensation other than their regular wages and salaries. In 1929, only 1.9 percent of employee pay took the form of fringe benefits. By 2014, fringe benefits had risen to 19.2 percent of worker compensation.

Here’s a chart looking at the historical data.

Greenberg says this distortion in the tax code is unfair.

…the growing trend of unreported fringe benefits is “inequitable and inefficient.” This claim is spot on. For an illustration, imagine two employees, one of whom makes a salary of $100,000, and one of whom makes a salary of $80,000 and benefits worth $20,000, which largely go unreported. Although both workers receive the same overall compensation, the first employee is subject to a significantly higher tax burden than the second, which seems plainly unfair.

Moreover, the distortion lures people into making economically foolish choices.

Furthermore, this arrangement incentivizes companies to shift more compensation towards benefits, to help employees avoid taxes. This leads to an inefficient allocation of resources, towards services that employers might not have been willing to pay for in the absence of tax incentives.

He’s correct

Writing for the Weekly Standards, Ike Brannon looks specifically at the biggest tax-free fringe benefit.

…allowing employers to provide health insurance tax-free to their workers is terrible policy, a truism that any honest economist—whether liberal, conservative, or otherwise—would agree with. …First, workers end up with more health insurance than they would ever purchase on their own (since tax-free health insurance is worth more than income that’s taxed at 30%-50%), which gives people less take-home pay to spend as they see fit. Second, more generous health insurance entails lower co-pays as well as other provisions that insulate the worker from the actual cost of their health care. As a result, people become less sensitive to prices when seeking health care, and they consume more of it—most of which does nothing to improve health outcomes, numerous studies have shown.

For further details on this unfortunate tax preference, A. Barton Hinkle looks at the evolution of the health exclusion in a column for Reason.

…the original sin of the American health-care marketplace…was committed back in World War 2, when inflation led workers to demand higher wages – which many employers could not afford to pay because of price controls. …With wages frozen, employers needed another way to compete for labor made scarce by the draft. So some began offering health coverage. The practice took root, spread, and outlasted the war. In 1949 the National Labor Relations Board ruled that health benefits counted as wages for the purpose of union negotiations. Five years later, the IRS ruled that health coverage was not taxable income. The result was a double incentive for employers to offer fatter health benefits in lieu of fatter paychecks. …The result: a skyrocketing, ultimately unsustainable increase in national outlays for health care. …In short, for decades the federal government has encouraged employers to provide gold-plated health-care plans.

Joe Antos of the American Enterprise Institute explains how the “healthcare exclusion” is bad fiscal policy, bad health policy, and bad economic policy.

If we hope to move to an efficient healthcare system that is fair to everyone, Congress will have to take on the largest subsidy in the tax code. …Premiums paid for employment-based health insurance are excluded from federal income and payroll taxes.

When describing provisions that allow people to keep more of their own money, I would prefer to say largest distortion rather than largest subsidy, but I realize I’m being pedantic. Regardless of word choice, the net effect of this preference is negative.

The tax exclusion…fuels the rapid growth of health spending, contributes to stagnating wage growth, and disadvantages low-wage workers. Because there is no limit on how much can be excluded from taxes, workers are encouraged to buy more expensive coverage than they would otherwise…makes consumers less sensitive to prices and promotes the use of medical services, including services that may not provide much value to the patient.

Let’s take a closer look at some of the problems associated with the exclusion.

The exclusion has caused a shift in compensation from taxable cash wages to greater health benefits which are not taxed. Between 1999 and 2015, the average employer contribution for family coverage nearly tripled while wage rates increased by only about half.

By the way, our leftists friends should oppose the exclusion for class-warfare reasons.

…workers in higher tax brackets benefit the most from the exclusion. The Joint Committee on Taxation found that the average savings for tax filers with incomes less than $30,000 was about $1,650 compared to about $4,580 for those with incomes over $200,000.

To deal with these negative effects, Antos proposes a modified version of the “Cadillac tax” from Obamacare combined with tax credits for consumers who purchase their own health insurance.

That’s better than the status quo, but the ideal solution is a flat tax, which would eliminate the deduction provided to employers for compensation in the form of fringe benefits.

In their book on tax reform, Professors Hall and Rabushka explain the obvious beneficial consequence of a level playing field for all forms of compensation.

The flat tax eliminates the distortion toward fringe benefits created by the fact that employers can deduct them, thereby receiving a subsidy that can be passed on to their employees. The best alternative, and one we expect your employer to select, is to offer you higher pay in exchange for lower fringes. You can then use the extra cash to buy whatever combination of benefits you desire.

This will make the healthcare marketplace much more efficient.

Here’s what I wrote about the healthcare exclusion way back in 2009, as part of a column on government-created inefficiency in the health sector.

…social engineering in the tax code created this mess. Specifically, most of us get some of our compensation in the form of health insurance policies from our employers. And because that type of income is exempt from taxation, this encourages so-called Cadillac health plans.  …our gold-plated health plans now mean we use insurance for routine medical costs. This means, of course, we have the paperwork issues discussed above, but that’s just a small part of the problem. Even more problematic, our pre-paid health care system is somewhat akin to going to an all-you-can-eat restaurant. We have an incentive to over-consume since we’ve already paid. Except this analogy is insufficient. When we go to all-you-can-eat restaurants, at least we know we’re paying a certain amount of money for an unlimited amount of food. Many Americans, by contrast, have no idea how much of their compensation is being diverted to purchase health plans. …this messed-up approach causes inefficiency and higher costs. We consumers don’t feel any need to be careful shoppers since we perceive that our health care is being paid by someone else. Should we be surprised, then, that normal market forces don’t seem to be working? (though it is worth noting that costs keep falling and quality keeps rising in the few areas – such as laser-eye surgery and cosmetic surgery – that are not covered by insurance) Imagine if auto insurance worked this way? Or homeowner’s insurance? Would it make sense to file insurance forms to get an oil change? Or to buy a new couch? That sounds crazy. The system would be needlessly bureaucratic, and costs would rise because we would act like we were spending other people’s money.  But that’s what would probably happen if government intervened in the same way it does in the health-care sector.

By the way, to make sure politicians don’t get a windfall of new revenue, the healthcare exclusion should only be repealed as part of a reform that also lowers tax rates.

Here’s a video from the Center for Freedom and Prosperity that highlights how the healthcare exclusion is a major cause of the third-party payer problem.

[brid video=”36045″ player=”2077″ title=”ThirdParty Payer is the Biggest Economic Problem With America’ Health Care System”]

And if you like videos, I strongly recommend this Reason TV explanation of how simple and affordable healthcare can be in the absence of government-created third-party payer.

[mybooktable book=”global-tax-revolution-the-rise-of-tax-competition-and-the-battle-to-defend-it” display=”summary” buybutton_shadowbox=”true”]

Dan Mitchell argues for the repeal of

Donald-Trump-Bobby-Knight-Indiana-Raly

Donald Trump was joined by former Indiana University coach Bobby Knight at a rally in Indianapolis Wednesday, April 27.

Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, who was once favored by many to win the Hoosier State, is now getting crushed by Donald Trump in internal Indiana primary polls. With just a few days to go before the votes are all counted, separate polling data obtained by PPD and conducted for the two campaigns show Sen. Cruz trailing Mr. Trump by double digits.

The Cruz campaign, which would not release their numbers as of today and did not respond when asked about the new figures, claimed Thursday he was down in the state by only 8 to 10 points. However, polling we have seen showed Sen. Cruz down by double digits over the weekend, which was prior to his poor performance on Tuesday.

On the hand, Mr. Trump clocked in over the 40% mark in each of the days the surveys were conducted. The Trump campaign’s numbers paint a far rosier picture than recent public polling. As of Thursday, Mr. Trump led Sen. Cruz by 19 points, 51% to 32%. Ohio Gov. John Kasich, who refused to tell his voters to support Sen. Cruz, was polling at 13%.

Sen. Cruz had hoped to pretend the five-state sweep following Mr. Trump’s big win in New York wasn’t indicative of results to come; certainly nothing to suggest he was gaining momentum.

“Numerous anti-Trump super PACs knew the demographics gave them their best shot to stop the frontrunner. They spent millions, they had the lead and they lost it,” said. PPD’s senior political analyst Richard Baris. “Since then, Sen. Cruz has even taken the unprecedented step to name a vice presidential pick. I doubt an endorsement by Gov. Mike Pence, who isn’t at all as popular as he once was, will change that before Tuesday.”

“Besides, I’d take Bobby Knight over Gov. Pence if I had to choose.”

Knight, nicknamed “The General,” is the popular and former head coach at Indiana. He endorsed The Donald and hit the trail with him on Wednesday. For his part, Gov. Pence endorsed Sen. Cruz Friday afternoon.

(UPDATE: As reader noted, previously stated “State,” which should have read U. H/T David)

As far as public polling, a brand new [content_tooltip id=”38766″ title=”American Research Group (ARG)”] finds Mr. Trump leading Sen. Cruz by 9 points, 41% to 32%. While ARG has posted mixed results this cycle, it appears even from the Texas senator’s own polling that 31%-32% is a stubborn ceiling of support in what has become a must-win state for him.

A separate new survey conducted by Clout Research (R), which doesn’t yet have a track record substantial enough to assess and grade via the PPD Pollster Scorecard, found Mr. Trump leading in a much closer two-point race, 37% to 35%. By all accounts, both from public and private polling, those results indicate an outlier.

“What we know is that voting is already underway and Sen. Cruz was trailing significantly during a duration of that time,” Mr. Baris added. “When campaigns don’t want to leak their polls is typically means bad news for them. The Trump campaign was all too eager to hand them out to reporters. All the polling firms agree that high turnout is bad news for Sen. Cruz. We’ll only know for sure Tuesday night.”

Meanwhile, overall, Sen. Cruz trails Mr. Trump by 6 points on the PPD average of polls.

UPDATE: A poll conducted by IPFW/Mike Downs Center for Indiana Politics shows Cruz leading by 16 points. The samples were not weighted, at all, and the interviews began on April 13. No information was provided for the results regarding the corresponding days, which makes it impossible to identify a trend in either direction.

“Like I said,” Baris responded to the poll, “the Cruz campaign doesn’t believe they are leading and admit they once had a lead. It was never this large. We never think it’s a good idea to dismiss any poll as an outlier outright, but I am more than skeptical to say the least. Let’s wait to see what the more reliable pollsters say this weekend.”

Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, who was once

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