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Economy

HMI, All Housing Indicators Point to Historic Boom for Sector

U.S. housing market concept. (Photo: AdobeStock)
U.S. housing market concept. (Photo: AdobeStock)

Washington, D.C. (PPD) — The NAHB Housing Market Index (HMI) reported builder confidence unexpectedly rose another 2 points to 85 in October, smashing the all-time high and beating the consensus forecast. A reading above 50 indicates a positive housing market for new single-family dwellings.

Forecasts ranged from a low 80 to a high of 84. The consensus forecast was 83, indicating the continued climb was again stronger than economists expected. The HMI now stands at its highest reading in the 35-year history of the series, exceeding the record set in September, which surpassed the previous record in December 1998.

The NAHB/Wells Fargo HMI is derived from a monthly survey that NAHB has been conducting for 30 years. It measures builder perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months as “good,” “fair” or “poor.”

The HMI index for current sales conditions increased two points to 90, while the component measuring sales expectations in the next six months increased three points to 88. The index measuring traffic of prospective buyers held steady at 74.

For the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the Northeast jumped six points to 82, the Midwest rose three points to 75, the South rose rose points to 82 and the West gained five points to 90.

Housing Primed to Lead Economic Recovery

As People’s Pundit Daily (PPD) recently reported, indicators widely show the U.S. housing market is “booming”, surpassing pre-pandemic levels and expectations. Experts now foresee housing leading the economic recovery and have raised growth forecasts for the sector.

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported existing home sales in August hit the highest level since December 2006. The stronger-than-expected increase for the third consecutive month followed a record 24.7% gain in July.

The PHSI previously surged more than three times the consensus forecast by 16.6% in June, after soaring a record 44.3% in May. The PHSI rose another 5.9% in July.

New residential construction statistics for housing starts and building permits skyrocketed in July, despite lingering effects due to coronavirus (COVID-19). The former gained 22.6% (±14.7%) and the latter 18.8% (±1.1%), respectively.

Builder confidence unexpectedly rose another 2 points

Elections

A puzzled businessman and a split wall with Republicans and Democrats written on red and blue sides to illustrate the choice between parties in elections. (Photo: AdobeStock)
A puzzled businessman and a split wall with Republicans and Democrats written on red and blue sides to illustrate the choice between parties in elections. (Photo: AdobeStock)

Republicans look for a big turnout on Election Day. Data indicates they are voting early at higher rates than expected in many states. It’s just unclear what the actual situation is.

Rich Baris, Director of Big Data Poll

Yes, it is unclear. Are GOP voters so enthused that they are voting early and will also vote in huge numbers on Election Day, as well? What will Democrats do on Election Day, turnout-wise?

A potentially positive sign for the president is that so many independents can still be persuadable with so many voting on Election Day, according to the new findings from Big Data Poll (6.5% of Pennsylvania voters are still undecided.

How do the “already voted” relate to the 2016 that had voted at this similar time?

So far, in actual data, key demographic groups numbers for Dems are down in many areas, including African Americans, Hispanics and younger voters-this is a necessary comparison to try and make and judgement on how the election will actually turnout.

That is why Big Data Polling tried to discern early who is and who is not going to early vote.

Big Data finds 15% of Blacks in certain battleground states are reporting they will vote for Trump, not just their approval number. Under normal circumstances, this would be landslide territory. Nationally, their figure is 12% which is 50% above the Black vote Trump received in 2016.

In Ohio and Pennsylvania, Big Data Polling shows Trump at 15%, which is 8 points above his 2016 actual. But White support for Trump is down, which is hurting him in polling. It was 56/40 in Pennsylvania statewide in 2016 and is now 50/44, with 5% undecided.

Trump needs two things to happen.

First, a relatively small number of undecided Republicans need to come home, and a few to return from their decision to vote for Biden, both of which are of course entirely possible and mirror the closing days of 2016. It is all to play for and it would be tragic if a historic shift in Black and Hispanic voters were negated by a cohort of neurotic Karens.

If Trump lost, the GOPe (establishment) would also be finished. This is what they claimed to have always wanted. The president is nearly tied in Florida among Hispanics, according to Big Data Poll and others. He leads among Hispanics in Marist.

Unbelievable. These Karens and their Yuppy husbands are frauds.

Rasmussen Reports pegs Black likely voter approval at 37% among Blacks, which I found challenging. That would likely translate to an actual vote of about 20%, which is higher than anything I have seen reported.

However, those other polls in the main do not focus on privacy like Rasmussen. Emerson, who did not want to publicize it, was discovered to also have Black approval at 33%, and they were also IVR (interactive voice response) and IP (online)-based. Why, in fact, even more so, could there not be a “shy Black Trump voter”?

Again, that would possibly translate to a nationwide Black vote of around 20% which would be earth shaking. If it were showing in the polls the election would be transformed-that Biden is running adverts tailored to Black voters is highly significant.

Similarly, with Hispanics, you don’t get 30,000 Hispanics in Florida in cars in a mass demonstration for Trump without some underlying mass shift. Neither do you get figures like from this recent UNF Florida poll. It found Hispanic intention to vote for Trump at 47%, up from 34% in 2016. Trump beat Biden in a Spanish language site’s post- debate poll.

These figures clearly indicate a Trump +40% Hispanic vote, which is around the level George W. Bush received in 2004.

What all this boils down to is a question of whether the move to Trump by Blacks in the upper Midwest and Hispanics in the South-Southwest — in additional to stay-at-homes — are enough to overcome the purported shift away from him by women, seniors, independents and ”soft” Republicans in the collar counties and suburbs.

That’s a big “if”. We heard much the same in 2016, and it simply didn’t happen.

If the vote by women can shift back to a degree similar to 2016 in the final days and the undecided vote breaks for Trump, then the Black/Hispanic shift would indicate a Republican Electoral College landslide. If women do not shift, then it is anyone’s game with the added unknown how vote-by-mail (VBM) returns pan out.

If the undecided Republican vote comes home, then Trump will win because of the new “Republican Big Tent” including a historic base of Black and Hispanic support.

Contrary to the media narrative, much about

Economy

Retail Sales for August Revised 0.6% Higher to $539 Billion

Group of friends sitting outdoors with shopping bags; several people holding smartphones and tablets. (Photo: AdobeStock/ OneInchPunch/PPD)
Group of friends sitting outdoors with shopping bags; several people holding smartphones and tablets. (Photo: AdobeStock/ OneInchPunch/PPD)

Washington, D.C. (PPD) — The U.S. Census Bureau reported advance retail sales soared to $549.5 billion in September, a 1.9% (± 0.5%) gain that crushed the consensus forecast. That’s 5.6% (± 0.7%) above September 2019 and total sales for the July 2020 through September 2020 period were up 3.6% (± 0.5%) from the same period a year ago.

Forecasts ranged from a low of 0.2% to a high of 2.3%. The consensus forecast was 0.7%.

The prior month was revised up from $537.5 billion to $539.0 billion. The July 2020 to August 2020 percent change was unrevised at up 0.6% (± 0.2%).

Retail trade sales also rose 1.9% (± 0.5%) in September, and 8.2% (± 0.7%) year-over-year. Nonstore retailers saw a 23.8% (± 1.6%) increase from September 2019, while building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers saw 19.1% (± 2.1%) gains from the same period last year.

Advance retail sales soared to $549.5 billion

Economy

Most Strict Lockdown States Disproportionately Hurting Labor Market Indicators

U.S. initial jobless claims graph on a tablet screen. (Photo: AdobeStock)
U.S. initial jobless claims graph on a tablet screen. (Photo: AdobeStock)

Washington, D.C. (PPD) — The U.S. Labor Department (DOL) reported initial jobless claims rose by 53,000 to a seasonally-adjusted 898,000 for the week ending October 10. The previous week was upwardly revised by 5,000 to 845,000.

Forecasts ranged from a low of 800,000 to a high of 845,000. The consensus forecast was 825,000.

The 4-week moving average was 866,250, up 8,000 from the previous week, which was revised up by 1,250 from 857,000 to 858,250.

Lagging Jobless Claims Data

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate fell significantly to 6.8% for the week ending October 3, a decline of 0.9 from the previous week, which was revised higher 0.2 to 7.7. It first fell to single digits post-Covid-19 shutdown for the week ending August 15 at 9.9%.

The insured unemployment rate hit the first high of the current crisis at 8.2% for the week ending April 4. The all-time high prior to that was 7.0%, recorded in May of 1975. On April 11, it rose to 11.0% and 12.4% on April 25.

Under the Trump Administration, this rate had fallen to an all-time low 1.1% and remained at 1.2% as recently as March 14. But that was before coronavirus (COVID-19) mitigation efforts.

The most strictest lockdown states, which consequently saw the highest number of infections, are disproportionately hurting the labor market and overall economy.

The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending September 26 were in Hawaii (17.9), California (16.1), Nevada (12.5), Puerto Rico (10.5), Louisiana (10.3), Georgia (10.1), New York (10.0), District of Columbia (9.1), Michigan (9.0), and New Mexico (8.8).

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment for October 3 was 10,018,000, a decline of 1,165,000. The previous week’s level was revised up 207,000 from 10,976,000 to 11,183,000.

The 4-week moving average was 11,481,750, a decrease of 682,250 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 51,750 from 12,112,250 to 12,164,000.

The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending October 3 were in Florida (+9,933), Illinois (+6,877), Massachusetts (+4,021), North Carolina (+2,907), and Maryland (+1,714), while the largest decreases were in New Jersey (-3,504), Kansas (-3,312), Pennsylvania (-3,111), Louisiana (-2,835), and Washington (-2,474).

Initial jobless claims rose by 53,000 to

Economy

Small Business Owners Resilient Despite Uncertainty and Politically-Driven State and Local Regulations

A team of millennial business owners collaborating on an online project using a touchpad tablet in a modern office space. (Photo: AdobeStock/AYAimages)
A team of millennial business owners collaborating on an online project using a touchpad tablet in a modern office space. (Photo: AdobeStock/AYAimages)

Washington, D.C. (PPD) — The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index returned to historic highs in September, far exceeding the 46-year average and beating the forecast 3.8 points to 104.0. Nine of the 10 Index components improved, while only one declined.

Forecasts ranged from a low of 97.0 to a high of 100.0. The consensus forecast was 98.9.

“As parts of the country continue to open, small businesses are seeing some improvements in foot traffic and sales,” said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. “However, some small businesses are still struggling financially to operate at full capacity while navigating state and local regulations and are uncertain about what will happen in the future.”

Business conditions and hiring plans continued to strengthen, rising from 24 to 32 and 21 to 23, respectively. A seasonally adjusted net 23% of small business owners plan to create new jobs in the next 3 months, up 2 points from the August report and 22 points above April’s report. However, 36% said they had job openings that they could not fill.

Twenty-one percent (21%) of owners cited “finding qualified labor” as their top business problem. In construction, 31% cited finding qualified labor as their top issue and slowing new home production.

Under the Obama-Biden administration, small business owners in the Index consistently cited taxes and government regulations as their top business problem. That shifted to finding qualified labor under the Trump-Pence administration, an indication the labor market strengthened.

Last week, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) monthly jobs report found the U.S. economy added 661,000 jobs in September, and job creation was far stronger over the prior two months than initially reported. The unemployment rate fell more than expected to 7.9%.

In September, the U-6 unemployment rate fell significantly to 12.8% and has now fallen 10.0% over the last five months. As People’s Pundit Daily (PPD) previously reported, the U-6 rate has fallen more in fives months post-shutdown under the Trump-Pence administration than it did in five years post-Great Recession under Obama-Biden, and fell to comparable levels.

It wasn’t until January 2014 — a full five years — that the U-6 unemployment rate fell to a comparable level below 13% at 12.7%.

Fifty-three percent (53%) reported capital outlays in the last 6 months, up 6 points from August. Of those, 38% reported spending on new equipment (+4), 23% acquired vehicles (+2), and 16% improved or expanded facilities (-4). Four percent (4%) acquired a new building or land for expansion (-2) and 8% spent money on new fixtures and furniture (-1).

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index returned

Economy

Most Strict Lockdown States Disproportionately Hurting Labor Market Indicators

U.S. initial jobless claims graph on a tablet screen. (Photo: AdobeStock)
U.S. initial jobless claims graph on a tablet screen. (Photo: AdobeStock)

Washington, D.C. (PPD) — The U.S. Labor Department (DOL) reported initial jobless claims fell slightly by 9,000 to a seasonally-adjusted 840,000 for the week ending October 3. The previous week was upwardly revised by 12,000 to 849,000.

Forecasts ranged from a low of 800,000 to a high of 855,000. The consensus forecast was 819,000.

The 4-week moving average was 857,000, down 13,250 from the previous week, which was revised up by 3,000 to 870,250.

Lagging Jobless Claims Data

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate fell significantly to 7.5% for the week ending September 26, a decline of 0.7 from the previous week, which was revised higher 0.1 to 8.2. It first fell to single digits post-Covid-19 shutdown for the week ending August 15 at 9.9%.

The insured unemployment rate hit the first high of the current crisis at 8.2% for the week ending April 4. The all-time high prior to that was 7.0%, recorded in May of 1975. On April 11, it rose to 11.0% and 12.4% on April 25.

Under the Trump Administration, this rate had fallen to an all-time low 1.1% and remained at 1.2% as recently as March 14. But that was before coronavirus (COVID-19) mitigation efforts.

The most strictest lockdown states, which consequently saw the highest number of infections, are disproportionately hurting the labor market and overall economy.

The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending September 19 were in Hawaii (20.1), California (16.1), Nevada (13.7), Puerto Rico (12.2), the Virgin Islands (12.1), Louisiana (11.4), New York (11.1), Georgia (10.9), District of Columbia (10.4), and Michigan (10.2).

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending September 26 was 10,976,000, down significantly by 1,003,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised higher by 212,000 from 11,767,000 to 11,979,000.

The 4-week moving average was 12,112,250, a decrease of 642,000 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 53,000 from 12,701,250 to 12,754,250.

Again, the most strictest lockdown states with the highest number of infections are disproportionately negatively impacting the labor market.

The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending September 26 were in Maryland (+3,619), Illinois (+3,414), New Jersey (+2,504), Michigan (+2,358), and Massachusetts (+1,886), while the largest decreases were in Texas (-7,075), Florida (-6,655), Georgia (-5,895), New York (-5,112), and Oregon (-2,317).

Initial jobless claims fell by 9,000 to

Economy

Man reading newspaper with the headline Job Market. (Photo: AdobeStock)
Man reading newspaper with the headline Job Market. (Photo: AdobeStock)

Washington, D.C. (PPD) — The number of job openings remained higher than expected in August, falling slightly to 6.5 million from an upwardly revised 6.7 million, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported. While hires rose to 5.9 million in August after a historically high level around 7.0 million over the last two months, total separations fell to 4.5 million.

Forecasts for job openings ranged from a low of 6.0 million to a high of 6.8 million. The consensus forecast was 6.25 million.

This article is being updated shortly.

The number of job openings remained higher

Economy

U.S. Service Sector Activity Stronger than Expected in September

United States Postal Service (USPS) workers don face masks and gloves behind plexiglass at the USPS location on N. Main in Gainesville, Fla., during the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. (Photo: People's Pundit Daily/PPD)
United States Postal Service (USPS) workers don face masks and gloves behind plexiglass at the USPS location on N. Main in Gainesville, Fla., during the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. (Photo: People’s Pundit Daily/PPD)

Tempe, Arizona (PPD) — The Institute for Supply Management Services PMI (NMI) rose more than expected for September, beating forecasts at 57.8. The reading indicates economic activity in the services sector grew for the fourth month in a row.

The 0.9 gain exceeds the high end of the forecast range for the month. Forecasts ranged from a low of 55.0 to a high of 57.4. The consensus forecast was 56.3.

“According to the Services PMI, 16 services industries reported growth. The composite index indicated growth for the fourth consecutive month after contraction in April and May,” said Anthony Nieves, Chair of the ISM Services Business Survey Committee.

“Respondents’ comments remain mostly optimistic about business conditions and the economy, which correlates directly to those businesses that are operating. There continues to be capacity and logistics issues, as business volumes have increased.”

ISM Services PMI and Manufacturing PMI

 Services PMI™Manufacturing PMI®
IndexSeries Index SepSeries Index AugPercent Point ChangeDirectionRate of ChangeTrend** (Months)Series Index SepSeries Index AugPercent Point Change
Services PMI™57.856.9+0.9GrowingFaster455.456.0-0.6
Business Activity/ Production63.062.4+0.6GrowingFaster461.063.3-2.3
New Orders61.556.8+4.7GrowingFaster460.267.6-7.4
Employment51.847.9+3.9GrowingFrom Contracting149.646.4+3.2
Supplier Deliveries54.960.5-5.6SlowingSlower1659.058.2+0.8
Inventories48.845.8+3.0ContractingSlower247.144.4+2.7
Prices59.064.2-5.2IncreasingSlower662.859.5+3.3
Backlog of Orders50.156.6-6.5GrowingSlower455.254.6+0.6
New Export Orders52.655.8-3.2GrowingSlower254.353.3+1.0
Imports46.650.8-4.2ContractingFrom Growing154.055.6-1.6
Inventory Sentiment55.452.5+2.9Too HighFaster2N/AN/AN/A
Customers’ InventoriesN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A37.938.1-0.2
Overall EconomyGrowingFaster4
Services SectorGrowingFaster4
Services ISM® Report On Business® data is seasonally adjusted for the Business Activity, New Orders, Prices and Employment indexes. Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® data is seasonally adjusted for New Orders, Production, Employment and Inventories indexes.
**Number of months moving in current direction.

The 16 services industries reporting growth in Services PMI for September — listed in order — are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Utilities; Management of Companies & Support Services; Transportation & Warehousing; Health Care & Social Assistance; Wholesale Trade; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Accommodation & Food Services; Construction; Public Administration; Educational Services; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Finance & Insurance; Retail Trade; Information; and Other Services.

The only industry reporting a decrease in September is Professional, Scientific & Technical Services.

The Services PMI was previously known as the Institute for Supply Management Non-Manufacturing Index (NMI).

The Institute for Supply Management Services PMI

Economy

Comparing Job Market Recoveries, Trump-Pence Far Surpass Obama-Biden

A newspaper with the headline "Job Market". (Photo: AdobeStock)
A newspaper with the headline “Job Market”. (Photo: AdobeStock)

Former Vice President Joe Biden is claiming he could “Build Back Better” than President Donald Trump after the economic shutdown to mitigate the spread of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, citing his record following the Great Recession. However, the U-6 unemployment rate has fallen more in fives months post-shutdown under the Trump-Pence administration than it did in five years post-Great Recession under Obama-Biden, and fell to comparable levels.

This is the second article in a series objectively comparing recoveries of key labor market indicators during the Obama-Biden and Trump-Pence administrations. The first was also published following the release of the Employment Situation.

U-6 is an alternative measure of unemployment defined as the rate for total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers and total employed part time for economic reasons as a percent of the total civilian labor force, plus all marginally attached workers.

The U-6 rate — often referred to as the “real” unemployment rate — hit an all-time high of 22.8% during shutdown in April. It climbed to the previous high of 17.1% in October 2009, after the Obama-Biden administration took office in January 2009. It remained around that level for an additional nine months after the Great Recession ended in the summer of 2009.

It fell briefly to 14.5% in March 2012 — slightly above the 14.2% rate achieved in only the fourth month post-Covid-19 shutdown in August — before increasing again over the course of that year. It wasn’t until the following year that the U-6 fell to or below 14.2%. In March 2013, it fell to 13.8% and rose again over the next few months. It finally began to fall consistently later that summer.

In September 2020, the U-6 unemployment rate fell significantly to 12.8% and has now fallen 10.0% over the last five months. It wasn’t until January 2014 — a full five years — that the U-6 unemployment rate fell to a comparable level below 13% at 12.7%.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) monthly jobs report found the U.S. economy added 661,000 jobs in September and the unemployment rate fell more than expected to 7.9%. Manufacturing employment gained 66,000 jobs in September, doubling the forecast.

While the headline for total nonfarm payrolls fell shy of the consensus forecast, job creation was far stronger than expected over the prior two months and unemployment fell more than expected. Forecasts for the unemployment rate ranged from a low of 7.1% to a high of 8.6%. The consensus forecast was 8.2%.

Total nonfarm payroll employment for July was revised higher by 27,000, from +1,734,000 to +1,761,000. The change for August was revised up by 118,000, from +1,371,000 to +1,489,000. With these revisions, employment in July and August combined was 145,000 more than initially reported.

The U-6 unemployment rate has fallen more

Economy

Consumers ‘Expected a Reestablishment of Good Times Financially’ 

A young woman consumer wearing a disposable medical mask while shopping at the supermarket during the Chinese Coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak. (Photo: AdobeStock)
A young woman consumer wearing a disposable medical mask while shopping at the supermarket during the Chinese Coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak. (Photo: AdobeStock)

Ann Arbor, Mich. (PPD) — The Survey of Consumers final reading on consumer sentiment for September rose from 74.1 in August and 78.9 in the preliminary reading to 80.4, the highest level in six months. Forecasts for the headline index ranged from a low of 77.9 to a high of 80.0, and the consensus forecast was 79.0.

“Consumer sentiment continued to improve in late September, with the Sentiment Index reaching its highest level in six months,” Richard Curtain, chief economist for the Survey of Consumers, said. “The gains were mainly due to a more optimistic outlook for the national economy.”

The Current Economic Conditions Index rose from 82.9 in August and 87.5 in the preliminary to 87.8. The Expectations Index rose significantly from 68.5 in August and 73.3 in the prelim to 75.6.

“While consumers have anticipated gains in the national economy ever since the April shutdown, the September survey recorded a significant increase in the proportion that expected a reestablishment of good times financially in the overall economy,” Mr. Curtain added.

Consumers 'Expected a Reestablishment of Good Times

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