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World

France Attacks Why Belgium

FILE – In this Tuesday, Nov. 17, 2015, file photo, police guard a street in which special intervention forces searched a house in the Molenbeek neighborhood in Brussels. Molenbeek is separated from the Midi section of Brussels by part of a mosaic of jurisdictions of 19 municipalities and 6 policing zones, all for a population of 1 million, long hampering cooperation. (AP Photo/Geert Vanden Wijngaert, File)

Salah Abdeslam, the Islamic State militant behind the Paris terror attacks in November, was arrested in Belgium’s capital Friday after four months at large, two French police officials told The Associated Press.

While the French President François Hollande told reporters in Brussels he would not give details on the “operation that is under way,” the mayor of the Brussels neighborhood of Molenbeek, François Schepmans, confirmed two people were injured in the current operation, which she said are continuing.

She didn’t immediately confirm Belgian media reports that Salah Abdeslam, the main fugitive from the Paris attacks, was one of two people hurt. However, a source with knowledge of the operation told PPD “we got em.”

Abdeslam escaped and fled from Paris after the gun and bomb attacks that killed 130 people at the Bataclan Theatre on November 13, a national stadium and cafes. Most of the Paris attackers died that night, including Abdeslam’s brother Brahim, who blew himself up during the course of the attack. The Islamic State terror group claimed responsibility for the attacks, in which Belgian nationals played key roles.

Abdeslam, who alluded capture for four months, bragged on social media about how freely he was able to move back and forth from Europe to Syria posing as a Syrian refugee.

Salah Abdeslam, the Islamist from the November

Economy

consumer-spending

A shopper organizes his cash before paying for merchandise at a Best Buy Co. store in Peoria, Illinois, U.S., on Friday, Nov. 23, 2012. (Photo: Daniel Acker/Bloomberg/Getty)

The closely-watched Surveys of Consumers consumer sentiment gauge from the University of Michigan fell to 90.0 in a preliminary March reading from a final February reading of 91.7. Economists expected the gauge to rise to 92.2.

“Consumer confidence eased in early March due to increased concerns about prospects for the economy as well as the expectation that gas prices would inch upward during the year ahead,” Surveys of Consumers chief economist, Richard Curtin said. “All of the decline during the past year has been in the Expectations Index, which was due to a weakening outlook for the pace of growth in the national economy.”

“While consumers do not anticipate a recession, they no longer expect the economy to outperform the 2.4% rate of economic growth recorded in the past two years,” he added. “In contrast, personal financial expectations remained strong in early March, comparable to the favorable levels recorded nearly a decade ago.”

Preliminary Consumer Sentiment for March 2016

Mar Feb Mar M-M Y-Y
2016 2016 2015 Change Change
Index of Consumer Sentiment 90.0 91.7 93.0 -1.9% -3.2%
Current Economic Conditions 105.6 106.8 105.0 -1.1% +0.6%
Index of Consumer Expectations 80.0 81.9 85.3 -2.3% -6.2%
Next data release: April 01, 2016 for Final March data at 10am ET
“Overall, it would appear that consumers have accommodated slower economic growth as well as rising gas prices without an accompanying rise in uncertainty about their own personal financial situation,” Curtain added. “The most important element supporting consumers’ optimism is their conviction that the slower pace of economic growth will not have an appreciable impact on maintaining the jobless rate at about its current low level. The data are still consistent with a 2.7% rate of growth in personal consumption expenditures during 2016.”

The closely-watched Surveys of Consumers consumer sentiment

Polls

Donald-Trump-Hillary-Clinton-Palm-Beach-March-15

Donald Trump, left, and Hillary Clinton, right, give thumbs up to the crowd after their victory speeches in Palm Beach, Florida, on March 15, 2016. (Photos: Win McNamee/Joe Raedle/Getty Images)

A new statewide Merrill poll gives frontrunners Donald Trump and Hillary Rodham Clinton double-digit leads ahead of the Arizona primary on March 22. But a large percentage of voters on both sides of the aisle–30% of Republican and 26% of Democratic voters–say they are still undecided.

Arizona pollster Bruce Merrill conducted the survey along with Phoenix-based Westgroup Research and, among Republicans, Mr. Trump leads Texas Sen. Ted Cruz with 31%, mirror other polls showing the business mogul with a lead in Arizona primary polls. Mr. Trump leads on the PPD average of Arizona Republican Primary polls by 14.5%.

Sen. Cruz is second with 19% followed by Ohio Gov. John Kasich, with 10%. The poll was conducted prior to Tuesday’s results, which knocked Florida Sen. Marco Rubio out of the Republican race and has given Mr. Trump a significant boost in other upcoming state polls.

Meanwhile, on the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton has a 50% to 24% lead on Vermont socialist Sen. Bernie Sanders, which was before he was essentially blown out on Tuesday.

Sanders campaigned in downtown Phoenix at the Phoenix Convention Center on Tuesday and Mr. Trump has no less than four rallies set in the state before the winner-take-all contest. There are 58 delegates up for grabs on the Republican side and 85 delegates on the Democratic side, though the latter are allocated on a proportional basis.

When pitting the candidates in a head-to-head, only Mr. Trump is competitive against Mrs. Clinton, though a large number of voters remain undecided. Clinton’s support among Hispanic voters and the cross-over advantage she received from Republicans against Trump largely explain why she is competitive in Arizona. However, that is typically the case in the otherwise fairly safe Republican state.

“One thing to note, however, is that contrary to what we found in the primary election, the percentage of voters who are undecided is relatively low across these match-ups, so there’s less room for change.”

Hispanic voters in Arizona aren’t impacted by the issue of immigration as much as they are on economic issues and government programs. A recent poll conducted for the Cronkite School of Journalism at Arizona State University by the Morrison Institute for Public Policy showed that there was no significant difference between attitudes in Latino communities and white communities on the issue.

“Whites (53 percent) and Latinos (47 percent)” agreed “Arizona should aggressively pursue the deportation of undocumented immigrants” in the survey.

Another hidden reason Mr. Trump is not putting Mrs. Clinton away is the battering he is taken by voters supporting other candidates in the primary.

Meanwhile, in a head-to-head matchup between incumbent Republican Sen. John McCain, the 2008 GOP nominee for president, and Democrat Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick, Arizona voters are also evenly split. Sen. McCain earns 41% while Rep. Kirkpatrick draws 40%. Only 3% said neither candidate will get their vote and 16% were undecided.

A new statewide Merrill poll gives frontrunners

Uncategorized

h2016 New York Democratic Primary

291 Delegates: Proportional (April 19, 2016)

Total delegates include 163 district / 54 at large; 30 Pledged PLEOs; 44 Unpledged PLEOs.

[election_2016_polls]

Empire State Polling Data

[wpdatatable id=51]

The latest 2016 New York Democratic Primary polls taken for the contest on Tuesday, April 19. There are 291 delegates awarded on a proportional basis in the Empire State, while 247 of 291 delegates to the Democratic National Convention are pledged to candidates based on the voting results the New York Democratic Primary.

A mandatory 15 percent threshold is required in order for a presidential contender to be pledged National Convention delegates at either the congressional district or statewide level.

  • 163 district delegates are to be pledged proportionally to presidential contenders based on the primary results in each of the State’s 27 congressional districts.
  • In addition, 84 delegates are to be pledged to presidential contenders based on the primary vote statewide.
    • 54 at-large National Convention delegates
    • 30 Pledged PLEOs

[ssbp]

h2016 New York Democratic Primary 291 Delegates: Proportional (April 19, 2016) Total delegates

Uncategorized

2016 New York Republican Primary

95 Delegates: Winner-Take-Most (April 19, 2016)

Total delegates include 10 base at-large, 81 for the 27 congressional districts, 3 party and 1 bonus.

[election_2016_polls]

hEmpire State Polling Data

[wpdatatable id=50]

The latest 2016 New York Republican Primary polls taken for the contest on Tuesday, April 19. There are 95 delegates awarded on a winner-take-most basis in the Empire State, with 81 district delegates bound to candidates based on the primary results in each of the state’s 27 congressional districts. Each congressional district is assigned 3 National Convention delegates who are slated by the Presidential candidates prior to the primary. In each district:

  • If a candidate receives more than 50% or only 1 candidate receives 20% or more of the vote, that candidate receives all 3 delegates.
  • Otherwise, if at least 2 presidential contenders receive 20% or more of the vote, the candidate with the most votes receives 2 delegates and the candidate with the second most of votes receives 1 delegate.
  • Otherwise, if no presidential contender receives 20% or more of the vote, the party will elect 3 delegates without considering the results of the primary.
  • 14 At-Large delegates (10 base at-large delegates plus 1 bonus delegates plus 3 RNC delegates) are bound to presidential contenders “winner-take-most” based on the statewide primary results. 11 of these delegates (the 10 base at-large delegates plus 1 bonus delegates) are elected at the state committee meeting.
    • If a candidate receives more than 50% of the vote, that candidate receives all 14 delegates.
    • Otherwise, the delegates are distributed proportionally to those candidates receiving 20% or more of the vote. Round fractions to the nearest whole number. If too few delegates are allocated, the candidate receiving the largest vote receives those the remaining delegates. If too many delegates are allocated, subtract those delegates from the candidate(s) who met the threshold but had the smallest number of votes.

[ssbp]

2016 New York Republican Primary 95 Delegates: Winner-Take-Most (April 19, 2016) Total

Politics, US

Anonymous-Donald-Eric-Trump

Donald Trump, left, standing next to his son Eric Trump, center, at the Mar-A-Lago Club’s Donald J. Trump Ballroom March 15, 2016 in Palm Beach, Florida. The Anonymous hacking group, right. (Photo by Win McNamee/Getty Images)

The anarchist hacking group Anonymous has published the phone and social security numbers for Republican frontrunner Donald J. Trump. The group, which previously released a bogus list of members allegedly belonging to the Ku Klux Klan, said they wanted others to use the information to prevent him from getting the nomination.

The cyberattack comes as a threatening letter was sent via mail to the candidate’s son, Eric Trump at his Manhattan residence at 100 Central Park South, also known as Trump Parc East. The letter, which a source close to the investigation said had a Massachusetts postmark, was opened by his wife on Thursday.

It warned that if Donald Trump doesn’t withdraw from the race for the Republican presidential nomination–paraphrasing–harm will come to the kids. The envelope allegedly contained suspicious white powder, which has been sent to a lab for testing. However, according to a source, a preliminary field test indicated the substance didn’t appear to be one that is truly hazardous.

The anarchist hacking group Anonymous has targeted

Politics

Graham-Cruz-AFP

South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz in the Senate in 2014. (Photo: Saul Loeb, AFP/Getty Images)

Politics make strange bedfellows. South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham endorsed Texas Sen. Ted Cruz for president and the Republican nomination on Thursday. Sen. Graham, who dropped out of the race before losing an embarrassing defeat in his own home state, was one of the first candidates to attack frontrunner Donald Trump for his policy on immigration.

“I’m going to help Ted in every way I can,” Graham told CNN.

But in the past, Sen. Graham also blasted Sen. Cruz, bashing him for being so unpopular in the Senate, even among those in his own party.

“If you killed Ted Cruz on the floor of the Senate, and the trial was in the Senate, nobody would convict you,” Graham said during a recent press dinner, a joke he once said at a fundraiser, as well.

Yet, now, Sen. Graham—who also endorsed Jeb Bush, the former Florida governor who dropped out after Mr. Trump won Graham’s state in a landslide—will host a fundraiser for Cruz on Monday. What a reversal. Sen. Graham also once said of the choice between Cruz and Trump: “It’s like being shot or poisoned. What does it really matter?”

Looks like he chose the bullet over the poison.

Politics make strange bedfellows. South Carolina Sen.

Opinion

Ted-Cruz-Marco-Rubio-Fox-Google-debate-Iowa

Ted Cruz, left, and Marco Rubio, right, argue over immigration during the Fox News/Google debate in Iowa on Thursday, January 28, 2016. (Photo: FOX News)

When I read this morning that Marco Rubio had said that Ted Cruz is the only conservative left in the Republican presidential primary race, it reinforced my decision to write Rubio an open letter urging his endorsement of Sen. Cruz.

Rubio didn’t go so far as to endorse Cruz, but he could have said nothing at all. Or he could have said, “We have to beat Donald Trump, and only Ted Cruz has a chance to do so.”

Instead, he specifically said Cruz is the only conservative left in the race, by which he sent a signal that John Kasich is not suitably conservative and that he, Rubio, cares deeply about conservatism. That is significant and gratifying.

Perhaps Rubio didn’t endorse Cruz outright because of the bitterness of their rivalry prior to their unwritten alignment to turn their focus on Trump some weeks ago. Maybe he is concerned that his millions of supporters would be perplexed by a sudden gesture of forgiveness and unity.

But Rubio’s affirmation of Cruz’s conservatism and his inspiring exit speech would be a nice predicate for a full-throated endorsement at some point in the near future.

I remember commenting before one of the debates that I wished that Cruz and Rubio could avoid getting bogged down yet again in a heated, confusing debate over the minutiae of amnesty, Spanish-language interviews and poison-pill legislation. It led to reciprocal charges of lying, increased polarization between Rubio and Cruz supporters, decreased emphasis on other important issues, and — worst of all — a virtual pass for Trump.

I understand that these issues are important and had to be addressed, but the discussions reached diminishing returns early on, and both candidates’ supporters became more entrenched and convinced that the other was being deceitful. It was painful to watch, and I am sure I’m not the only one who just wanted it to go away. By the time Cruz and Rubio had achieved a de facto truce, Trump was well on his way to gobbling up victories, despite his woeful deficiencies and embarrassing debate performances.

If Twitter is any indication, many Rubio supporters remain furious and unforgiving toward Cruz. Many Cruz supporters are outraged that Rubio, in their view, handed Missouri, Illinois and North Carolina to Trump by insisting on staying in the race with the hope of winning his home state of Florida even though the polls indicated he didn’t have a chance.

I’m frankly tired of the selfishness on all sides, placing our own negative desire to vent our emotions ahead of the national interest. It’s time for a truce — an end to the gloating from one side and recriminations from the other — and it’s past time for healing if we are to have any realistic chance of nominating a true conservative to run against Hillary Clinton. We’ve all been angry at times during this race, but it’s time to bury the hatchet and unite.

I would first appeal to my fellow Cruz supporters to acknowledge and applaud Rubio’s wonderful withdrawal speech, in which he eloquently expressed his passionate love for America and for the American idea. You may think he’s naive or worse on the important immigration issue, but I don’t think you can fairly question his genuine patriotism — and his unapologetic love for Jesus Christ and his humble deference to God’s glorious plan for all of us. Remember, he made these comments on the way out.

To Rubio, I would say: “Sir, thank you for those inspiring words. You fought valiantly and have now withdrawn. Even if some prefer John Kasich to Ted Cruz, Kasich has no path to the nomination, even in a contested convention, and the longer he stays and the more support he receives the greater the chance that Donald Trump will be the nominee. Let’s not pretend that any other conclusion is reasonable. I am convinced you still command a great deal of respect, not just among your supporters but with many others, and if you choose to pursue it, you have a bright political future. I respectfully implore you not just to enthusiastically endorse Ted Cruz but to strongly urge your supporters to do so, as well. Yes, you have great influence over the delegates you earned, but you could have even more influence in initiating the healing process that must occur between your supporters and those of Sen. Cruz, which, I believe, partially preceded your respective candidacies, as the lines began to form during the government shutdown debates. Your leadership in bringing about harmony among conservatives is imperative if we are to nominate a conservative this year, but it is also critical in strengthening the movement against irreversible migration toward nationalist populism. Sen. Rubio, you have already shown that you are not a fair-weather lover of America, so please go further and make a decision to proactively make a difference in the outcome of this election, for this is our last best chance to reverse the galloping expansion of government that is smothering our liberties. And please, don’t just nominally endorse Sen. Cruz; join Carly Fiorina and others and get out on the campaign trail and bring your unique talents to the advancement of the Cruz candidacy. America will thank you — and be forever in your debt.”

In this open letter to Marco Rubio,

Uncategorized

2016 Arizona Republican Primary

58 Delegates: Winner-Take-All (March 22, 2016)

Total delegates include 10 base at-large, 27 for the 9 congressional districts, 3 party and 18 bonus delegates.

[election_2016_polls]

Grand Canyon State Polling Data

[wpdatatable id=48]

The latest 2016 Arizona Republican Primary polls taken for the contest on Tuesday, March 22. There are 58 delegates awarded on a winner-take-all basis. The Grand Canyon State is winner-take-all 58 delegates, all of which are given to the candidates receiving the greatest number of votes in the Arizona Republican Primary.

Of the 58, some 27 district delegates to the Republican National Convention are chosen with 3 delegates selected in each of the 9 congressional districts. Technically, the State Convention chooses 28 at-large delegates from Arizona to the Republican National Convention.

[ssbp]

2016 Arizona Republican Primary 58 Delegates: Winner-Take-All (March

Video

Initialize ads

Larry Sabato warned Republicans of a meltdown in Cleveland if the party tried to deny the nomination to the man who dominated the map, Donald Trump.

“For Donald Trump it was a titanic Tuesday, because he basically swept except for Ohio,” Sabato said on the FOX News Channel this morning. “That keeps John Kasich in the race, but look at that map, Brian. How does a party deny the nomination to a guy who has dominated the map to this point and probably will win a very significant share of the remaining 19 states to vote?”

What Mr. Larry Sabato, who is the head of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia and the Crystal Ball, is speaking to the fact that Mr. Trump has not only won the most states and delegates. Mr. Trump has won in the states that actually matter, including New Hampshire, North Carolina, Michigan, Florida, Illinois etc. To deny the nomination to the candidate that performed the best in states Republicans either haven’t been able to win or need to win in November, would be an utter electoral disaster.

That’s the hard truth for supporters of the anti-Trump movement.

“That’s the dilemma facing the Republican party or I should say the anti-Trump part of the party,” Sabato said. “You know, they’re wanting to move into a contested convention to deny him. But there could be a meltdown in Cleveland if they do it.”

Larry Sabato warned Republicans of a meltdown

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