Trump is Not The Enemy, Big Government Is

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks on Super Tuesday primary election night at the White and Gold Ballroom at The Mar-A-Lago Club in Palm Beach, Florida. (Photo: Andrew Harnik/AP)

Trump is being painted as an enemy of the people. No matter what– the GOP cannot let Hillary Clinton, a self professed socialist, win. Mitt Romney last week spoke to the American people telling us about the horrors of Donald Trump, who is the current GOP frontrunner . He did so while standing in front of…

March 9, 2016

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks on Super Tuesday primary election night at the White and Gold Ballroom at The Mar-A-Lago Club in Palm Beach, Florida. (Photo: Andrew Harnik/AP)

Polls

Latest Polls: Trump leads Kasich, Rubio in Home States of Ohio, Florida

Ohoi Gov. John Kasich, left, New York businessman Donald Trump, center, and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, right. (Photos: AP/Getty)

Republican frontrunner Donald J. Trump is leading Ohio Gov. John Kasich in Ohio and Sen. Marco Rubio in Florida, according to the latest polls. As of Wednesday, Mr. Trump leads Gov. Kasich by an average 5 points in Ohio and Sen. Rubio by an even larger average 16.8-point margin in Florida, their respective home states.

The latest polls–by CNN/ORC and Quinnipiac University in both Ohio and Florida, as well as SurveyUSA for Bay News 9 in the Sunshine State–were conducted before Tuesday’s primary and caucus contests in Michigan, Mississippi, Hawaii and Idaho. The Donald carried the first ever-important Rust Belt state, claimed the entire deep South in Dixie by romping Mississippi, took every county in Hawaii and lost only in Idaho.

According to the CNN/ORC Poll (Pollster Scorecard: A-), Mr. Trump is leading among Buckeye State Republican primary voters in Ohio with 41% to Kasich’s 35%. Texas Sen. Ted Cruz came in third at 15% and Sen. Rubio fell to fourth with just 7%. In Florida, Mr. Trump holds a 16-point lead with 40% to Sen. Rubio’s 24%. Sen. Cruz earned a respectful but limited 19% and Gov. Kasich just 5%.

In Florida, two-thirds of Republican primary voters say they have definitely decided whom to support, including more than 8 in 10 Trump supporters. That has long been a strength for the frontrunner, who typically loses late-deciders but still wins comfortably.

“One of the other candidates–whether it’s Rubio, Cruz or Kasich–seem to win the last week of the campaign in recent contests,” said PPD’s senior political analyst Richard Baris. “But Donald Trump has won the last seven months of the campaign and debate.”

The results come less than a week before the March 15 winner-take-all contests in Florida (99 delegates), Ohio (66 delegates) and Illinois (65 delegates). North Carolina will allocate 62 delegates on a proportional basis, while Missouri will allocate 52 delegates on a hybrid winner-take-most basis.

In Florida, another survey conducted by SurveyUSA (Pollster Scorecard: A) showed Mr. Trump leading Sen. Rubio 42% to 22%, carrying just about every single demographic group and region save for the South. The five point disparity between the surveys stems from the demographic divide by education and gender in the CNN/ORC Poll, which is not present in the SurveyUSA survey. Rubio leads in the CNN/ORC Poll among college graduates and is more competitive among women, but neither is the case in the poll for Bay News 9.

Meanwhile, a pair of Quinnipiac University Polls show Mr. Trump leading Gov. Kasich in Ohio 38% to 32%, with Sen. Cruz taking 15.3% of the vote and Sen. Rubio at just 7%. In Florida, Mr. Trump has climbed to 45% by also leading his rivals among all demographics.

“The effort within the Republican Party to stop Donald Trump from winning the presidential nomination appears unlikely to stop him from taking Florida’s delegate-rich winner-take-all primary,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll. “But that effort might have a better chance of success in Ohio where Gov. John Kasich is giving ‘The Donald’ a tougher run for his money.”

He now holds a 23-point lead over Sen. Rubio polling at 22%. Sen. Cruz has 18% and 8% went for Gov. Kasich. Trump leads Rubio 39% to 27% among women and 50% to 17% among men. Self-described Tea Party members go 48% for Trump, 40% for Cruz and 9% for Rubio. Trump gets 39% of white, born-again evangelicals, with 30% going for Cruz and 21% going for Rubio.

“In the Sunshine State, hometown hero Sen. Marco Rubio is 23 points behind Trump and isn’t even doing much better than Sen. Ted Cruz,” Mr. Brown added. “Also discouraging for the anti-Trump folks is that Trump voters say they are less likely than those supporting any of the other candidates to change their mind in the closing days.”

In Ohio, only 5% of voters remain undecided and 27% of those who named a candidate said they might change their mind. Unlike Florida, the Quinnipiac University Poll shows a gender gap among likely Republican primary voters in the Buckeye State. Men back Trump over Kasich 44% to 29%, while women go to Kasich 36% to 31%.

In both states, large majorities in the CNN/ORC Poll said their home-state candidate should drop out if they don’t win: 71% say Kasich should exit if he loses Ohio, while 66% say Rubio should depart if he loses Florida.

Ohio’s GOP electorate isn’t quite as committed to its candidates as are Florida’s Republican voters. Overall, 58% have definitely decided whom to support, but Trump does not have an edge on this question: 59% of Trump supporters say they are locked in, and 61% of Kasich’s backers say the same.

Nevertheless, Michigan Republican primary voters almost mirror Ohio’s electorate identically, particularly in the border counties. Tuesday’s results don’t bode well for Gov. Kasich, who lost Macomb County, Monroe County, Oakland County and Wayne County to Mr. Trump by significant margins. The Donald also carried Hillsdale and Lenawee County counties by an average double-digit margin.

The CNN/ORC Polls were conducted March 2-6. The Florida survey includes 1,014 adults, including 264 likely Democratic primary voters and 313 likely Republican primary voters. The Ohio poll includes 1,002 adults, including 294 likely Democratic primary voters and 359 likely Republican voters.

The margin of error in Florida is 5.5 percentage points among Republicans and 6 points with Democrats. In Ohio, it’s 5 points among Republicans and 5.5 points with Democrats.

SurveyUSA polled 937 likely & actual GOP presidential primary voters, with a margin of sampling error: ± 3.3%.

From March 2 to 7, Quinnipiac University surveyed 657 Florida likely Republican primary voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.8 percentage points and 685 Ohio likely Republican primary voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.7 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones in the Q-Poll.

March 9, 2016

Republican frontrunner Donald J. Trump is leading

Opinion

Libertarian Lite

Libertarian-leaning Sen. Rand Paul, R-Kty., sports shades during a campaign stop in Iowa. (Photo: Daily Signal)

In this year’s Republican presidential primaries, Sen. Rand Paul got little traction. In 2012, his father failed. That year, the Libertarian Party candidate, former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson, got just 1 percent of the vote.

We libertarians must be doing something wrong. Maybe our anti-government message is too radical, says Jerry Taylor. Maybe we should soften our approach.

“Libertarians need to be more realistic,” Taylor told 500 young people at a taping of my TV show at last week’s International Students for Liberty conference. In electoral politics, he said, finding libertarians is “like trying to find a daisy in Hiroshima” after the nuclear blast.

Taylor, a smart libertarian who runs a think tank called the Niskanen Center, says to become more popular, we libertarians ought to change our views. He criticized Rand Paul for saying that in 1964 he would’ve voted against the Civil Rights Act.

Actually, Rand didn’t say that. He supported the act’s ban on government racism, like Jim Crow laws. He objected only to the act’s ban on private discrimination. Rand was right to object. If owners of a private business want to serve only gays, basketball players or bald men, that should be their right.

Market competition will punish bigots for their narrow-mindedness, because some people will avoid that store. There’s no need for government force.

“Right,” said Taylor, but “5 percent of the American public says yes to that, and 95 percent say no. … They’re not going to embrace a candidate who says, tough, people should just suffer under the teeth of bigotry because white people have that right.”

I suppose Taylor is correct. Voters prefer simple answers (“Mexico will pay for a wall!”). They don’t want constitutional lectures about property rights or free association.

Taylor is fine with welfare spending, too. He points out, “Even people like Milton Friedman and F.A. Hayek supported a safety net to help the indigent.”

Taylor and some other libertarians sound like “reform Republicans” who want free-market advocates to embrace the welfare state. They think they’re being practical, realistic.

But we free-market supporters know what really creates prosperity and opportunity: economic freedom! We saw it work in America when America was young. We see it now in Hong Kong, Singapore, New Zealand, Switzerland, Australia and other countries that today offer more economic freedom than the United States.

Government that governs least governs best.

I said to Taylor, rudely, “Your plan for victory is to surrender?”

“No,” replied Taylor. “I don’t think it’s surrender to say that the rights and freedoms of people in this country can be secured by government.”

I don’t either. But America’s government has gone well past “securing rights and freedom.” Today’s welfare state provides much more than a safety net. It’s become a giant hammock that encourages dependency. Government today takes half our money and micromanages the workplace.

But Taylor criticizes libertarians who complain about that and “reflexively” talk about “taxes and spending and regulation. Other things are important too, like war! War is the engine of the growth of the state. Hundreds of thousands of people die.”

All true. We libertarians should probably talk less about taxes and more about what we’d do about ISIS and how to help poor people without using government force.

But I won’t “soften” my arguments. I know they are right. After years watching liberal and conservative “solutions” fail, I know that limited government is the better way. We haven’t convinced today’s voters, but people aren’t endlessly foolish. If we keep fighting, maybe they will see the truth.

To help us understand more about these ideas, the “Stossel” TV show will host a Libertarian presidential forum. Three leading Libertarian presidential candidates — “leading” because they placed top three in a poll done by the Libertarian Party — will debate. They are former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson, software entrepreneur John McAfee and Libertarian Republic founder Austin Petersen.

The forum will air, unfortunately, on April 1. But this is no April Fools’ Day joke. Our future is a stake.

For free tickets to the “Stossel” Libertarian presidential forum, contact [email protected].

March 9, 2016

In this year's Republican presidential primaries, Sen.

Elections, Politics

Donald Trump Wins Michigan Republican Primary, Carries Pivotal Counties

Donald J. Trump holds a rally in Michigan in March, 2016.

Donald Trump has won the Michigan Republican primary, carrying pivotal counties on the border with Ohio that could spell trouble for Gov. John Kasich. Mr. Trump carried or is carrying Macomb County, Monroe County, Oakland County and Wayne County.

More than half of Michigan Republican primary voters said they agree with Mr. Trump on trade policies, in that they are taking jobs away from U.S. workers. Mr. Trump won these voters overwhelmingly. There are real danger signs as well for the anti-Trump or “Never Trump” movements among mostly Establishment Republicans in D.C.

In the Wolverine State, there wasn’t much difference in satisfaction between the candidates, where about half say they’d be satisfied with Mr. Trump as the GOP nominee, as well as roughly the same for Sen. Cruz and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio.

Mr. Trump also won a big victory in Mississippi, where 8 in 10 Republican primary voters self-identified as evangelicals. He carried these voters over Sen. Cruz 45% to 40%. The Mississippi win shows yet another state that was pivotal to Sen. Cruz’s path to the Republican nomination.

A majority in Mississippi agreed on trade, with eight in 10 saying they are “very worried” about the direction of the economy. Half of Mississippi chose Mr. Trump.

Candidate	Popular Vote	Delegate Votes
Candidate	Popular Vote	Soft Pledged	Soft Unpledged	Soft Total	Hard Total
Trump, Donald John, Sr.	`481,292 36.51%`	`25 42.37%`		`25 42.37%`	`25 42.37%`
Cruz, Rafael Edward “Ted”	`328,483 24.92%`	`17 28.81%`		`17 28.81%`	`17 28.81%`
Kasich, John Richard	`320,271 24.29%`	`17 28.81%`		`17 28.81%`	`17 28.81%`
Rubio, Marco A.	`123,018 9.33%`
Carson, Benjamin Solomon “Ben”, Sr.	`21,235 1.61%`
Uncommitted	`19,762 1.50%`
Bush, John Ellis “Jeb”	`10,627 0.81%`
Paul, Randal H. “Rand”	`3,762 0.29%`
Christie, Christopher James “Chris”	`3,110 0.24%`
Huckabee, Michael Dale “Mike”	`2,597 0.20%`
Santorum, Richard John “Rick”	`1,718 0.13%`
Fiorina, Carleton Sneed “Carly”	`1,407 0.11%`
Pataki, George E.	`591 0.04%`
Graham, Lindsey Olin	`435 0.03%`
Total	`1,318,308 100.00%`	`59 100.00%`		`59 100.00%`	`59 100.00%`

March 8, 2016

Donald Trump has won the Michigan Republican

Elections, Politics

Trump Wins Mississippi Republican Primary, Deep South Goes for The Donald

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks at campaign stop, Thursday, March 2, 2016, in Portland, Maine. (AP Photo/Robert F. Bukaty)

Donald J. Trump has won the Mississippi Republican primary, filling in the entire deep South for the businessman from New York in the nomination contest. The win takes another state away from Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, who built his entire campaign strategy off of these very evangelical, conservative states.

Roughly eight in 10 in Mississippi self-identified as evangelical Christian, which if it holds would mark their largest share in any state to date.

Mr. Trump carried these voters with 45% to 40% for Texas Sen. Ted Cruz.

Half of Mississippi Republican primary voters say they’re “very” conservative, which could mark a record for the state.

Also–On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton unsurprisingly won in Mississippi with strong support from black voters.

March 8, 2016

Donald J. Trump has won the Mississippi

Polls

What the Michigan, Mississippi Republican Primary Exit Polls Are Telling Us

Republican presidential candidates, from left, Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), Donald Trump and Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) participate in a debate sponsored by Fox News on Thursday, March 3, 2016, in Detroit. (Photo Credit: Getty Images / Chip Somodevilla)

The exit polls are showing two very different electorates in the Michigan and Mississippi Republican primaries, but overall favor Donald J. Trump. Overall, opposition to his nomination among voters in both states appears to be softening from the larger numbers in previous states. Roughly eight in 10 in Mississippi self-identified as evangelical Christian, which if it holds would mark their largest share in any state to date.

Mr. Trump carried these voters with 45% to 40% for Texas Sen. Ted Cruz.

Half of Mississippi Republican primary voters say they’re “very” conservative, which could mark a record for the state. By contrast, just three in 10 in Michigan Republican primary voters said they are very conservative, while 33% said they were independents. Mr. Trump seems to have a lead among this group. Roughly 6 in 10 Michiganders said they were mainstream Republicans.

More than half of Michigan Republican primary voters said they agree with Mr. Trump on trade policies, in that they are taking jobs away from U.S. workers. Mr. Trump won these voters overwhelmingly. A majority in Mississippi agreed, with eight in 10 saying they are “very worried” about the direction of the economy. Half of Mississippi chose Mr. Trump.

Half of Republican primary voters in Mississippi said they support deporting illegal immigrants rather than giving them a path to legal status, which is higher than the average from previous primaries. In Michigan, a fewer but still significant 4 in 10 agree. As has been the case throughout the GOP primaries this year, there’s broad support across both states for Trump’s proposal to ban non-U.S. Muslims from entering the country – three-quarters in Mississippi and six in 10 in Michigan.

These voters been a huge support group for Trump in previous states.

Six in 10 Republican primary voters in Mississippi and a slightly more than half in Michigan said they want the next president to be someone from “outside the political establishment.” The share of “outsider” voters in the Mississippi electorate mirrors the high to date that was measured in Nevada. A whopping 65% say they chose Mr. Trump.

Meanwhile, 6 in 10 in Mississippi would be satisfied with both Sen. Cruz and Mr. Trump, juxtaposed to just 4 in 10 with Sen. Rubio. To date, more GOP primary voters have found Sen. Cruz and Sen. Rubio acceptable than Trump (57 and 56 percent, vs. Trump’s 48%).

Late-deciders in the Michigan Republican largely broke for Ohio Gov. John Kasich and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, according to early exit polls. Mr. Trump, the frontrunner has led most Michigan polls going into Tuesday, but exit polls show 35% of late-deciders backing Gov. Kasich, and 31 percent backing Sen. Cruz.

But Mr. Trump still pulled 23% of that group, while Sen. Rubio is pulling just 10%. But the share of late-deciders is smaller than previous contests, with 4 in 10 GOP voters in Michigan saying they made up their minds more than a month ago, as did nearly half in Mississippi.

Mr. Trump leads Sen. Cruz in the delegate count 384 to 300, with Sen. Rubio trailing at 151 and Gov. Kasich at 37.

March 8, 2016

The exit polls are showing two very

political cartoon welfare state wagon ending

Policy

Demographics + Entitlements = Europe’s Doom

The most depressing data about America’s economy is not the top tax rate, the regulatory burden, or the level of wasteful of government spending.

Those numbers certainly are grim, but I think they’re not nearly as depressing as America’s demographic outlook.

As you can see from this sobering image, America’s population pyramid is turning into a population cylinder.

There’s nothing a priori wrong with an aging population and a falling birthrate, of course, but those factors create a poisonous outlook when mixed with poorly designed entitlement programs.

The lesson is that a modest-sized welfare state is sustainable (even if not advisable) when a nation has a population pyramid. But even a small welfare state becomes a problem when a nation has a population cylinder. Simply stated, there aren’t enough people to pull the wagon and there are too many people riding in the wagon.

But if America’s numbers are depressing, the data from Europe should lead to mass suicide.

The Wall Street Journal has a new story on the utterly dismal fiscal and demographic data from the other side of the Atlantic Ocean.

State-funded pensions are at the heart of Europe’s social-welfare model, insulating people from extreme poverty in old age. Most European countries have set aside almost nothing to pay these benefits, simply funding them each year out of tax revenue. Now, European countries face a demographic tsunami, in the form of a growing mismatch between low birthrates and high longevity, for which few are prepared. …Looking at Europeans 65 or older who aren’t working, there are 42 for every 100 workers, and this will rise to 65 per 100 by 2060, the European Union’s data agency says. …Though its situation is unusually dire, Greece isn’t the only European government being forced to acknowledge it has made pension promises it can ill afford. …Across Europe, the birthrate has fallen 40% since the 1960s to around 1.5 children per woman, according to the United Nations. In that time, life expectancies have risen to roughly 80 from 69. …Only a few countries estimate the total debt burden of the pension promises they have made.

The various nations is Europe may not produce the data, but one of the few good aspects of international bureaucracies is that they generate such numbers.

I’ve previously shared projections from the IMF, BIS, and OECD, all of which show the vast majority of developed nations will face serious fiscal crises in the absence of reforms to restrain the burden of government spending.

New we can add some data from the European Commission, which has an Ageing Report that is filled with some horrifying demographic and fiscal information.

First, here are the numbers showing that most parts of the world (and especially Europe) will have many more old people but a lot fewer working-age people.

Looking specifically at the European Union, here’s what will happen to the population pyramid between 2013 and 2060. As you can see, the pyramid no longer exists today and will become an upside-down pyramid in the future.

Now let’s look at data on the ratio between old people and working-age people in various EU nations.

Dark blue shows the recent data, medium blue is the dependency ratio in 2030, and the light blue shows the dependency ration in 2060.

The bottom line is that it won’t be long before any two working-age people in the EU will be expected to support themselves plus one old person. That necessarily implies a very onerous tax burden.

But the numbers actually are even more depressing than what is shown in the above chart.

In the European Commission’s Ageing Report, there’s an estimate of the “economic dependency ratio,” which compares the number of workers with the number of people supported by those workers.

The total economic dependency ratio is a more comprehensive indicator, which is calculated as the ratio between the total inactive population and employment (either 20-64 or 20-74). It gives a measure of the average number of individuals that each employed “supports”.

And here are the jaw-dropping numbers.

These numbers are basically a death knell for an economy. The tax burden necessary for this kind of society would be ruinous to an economy. A huge share of productive people in these nations would decide not to work or to migrate where they would have a chance to keep a decent share of their earnings.

So now you understand why I wrote a column identifying safe havens that might remain stable while other nations are suffering Greek-style fiscal collapse.

Having shared all this depressing data, allow me to close with some semi-optimistic data.

I recently wrote that Hong Kong’s demographic outlook is far worse than what you find in Europe, but I explained that this won’t cause a crisis because Hong Kong wisely has chosen not to adopt a welfare state. People basically save for their own retirement.

Well, a handful of European nations have taken some steps to restrain spending. Here’s a table from the EC report on countries which have rules designed to adjust outlays as the population gets older.

These reforms are better than nothing, but the far better approach is a shift to a system of private retirement savings.

As you can see from this chart, Denmark, Sweden, and the Netherlands already have a large degree of mandatory private retirement savings, and a handful of other countries have recently adopted private Social Security systems that will help the long-run outlook.

I’ve already written about the sensible “pre-funded” system in The Netherlands, and there are many other nations (ranging from Australia to Chile to the Faroe Islands) that have implemented this type of reform.

Given all the other types of government spending across the Atlantic, Social Security reform surely won’t be a sufficient condition to save Europe, but it surely is a necessary condition.

Here’s my video explaining why such reform is a good idea, both in America and every other place in the world.

March 8, 2016

The most depressing data about America’s economy

Uncategorized

Illinois Democratic Primary

2016 Illinois Democratic Primary

182 Delegates: Proportional Allocation (March 15, 2016)

Total delegate votes – 102 district / 34 at large; 20 Pledged PLEOs; 26 Unpledged PLEOs

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Polling Data

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Latest 2016 Illinois Democratic Primary polls and the PPD aggregate polling average for the proportional contest on Tuesday March 15, 2016. 156 of 182 delegates to the Democratic National Convention are pledged to candidates based on the results of the Illinois Democratic Primary.

A mandatory 15% threshold is required in order for a candidate to be pledged National Convention delegates at either the congressional district or statewide level.
102 district delegates are to be pledged proportionally to candidates based on the Illinois Democratic Primary results in each congressional district, while 54 delegates are to be pledged to presidential contenders based on the primary vote statewide. Another 34 at-large National Convention delegates and 20 Pledged PLEOs are up for grabs.

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March 8, 2016

2016 Illinois Democratic Primary 182 Delegates: Proportional Allocation (March 15,

Uncategorized

Illinois Republican Primary

2016 Illinois Republican Primary

69 Delegates: Winner-Take-All (March 15, 2016)

(Total delegates include 10 base at-large, 54 per 18 congressional districts, 3 party and 2 bonus.)

[election_2016_polls]

Polling Data

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Latest 2016 Illinois Republican Primary polls and the PPD aggregate polling average for the winner-take-all contest on Tuesday March 15, 2016. All 69 of Illinois’ delegates to the Republican National Convention will be bound to candidates based on the results of the Illinois Republican Primary.

54 National Convention District delegates are elected in a so-called “Loophole” primary (a Delegate Selection Primary combined with an Advisory “beauty contest” presidential preference vote). 12 National Convention Statewide Delegates are bound winner-take-all to the candidate receiving the largest number of votes statewide. These delegates do not appear on the ballot and are chosen at the State Convention.

The 3 party leaders–the National Committeeman, the National Committeewoman, and the chairman of the Illinois Republican Party–will attend the convention bound winner-take-all to the candidate receiving the largest number of votes statewide.

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March 8, 2016

2016 Illinois Republican Primary 69 Delegates: Winner-Take-All (March 15, 2016) (Total delegates

Video

Rubio Comm Director Alex Conant Says Reports of Internal Strive “Utter Nonsense,” “Fiction”

[brid video=”29767″ player=”2077″ title=”Rubio comms director Alex Conant slams CNN story “utter nonsense””]

Alex Conant, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio’s communication director, said the report of an internal strive before the Florida Republican primary is “100% false.”

He angrily confronted CNN’s Wolf Blitzer on “The Situation Room.” He told Blitzer “that is fiction” and demanded to know how the report was published without contacting the campaign. Conant also urged CNN to “stop reading that sort of fiction on air.”

While the race appears to be tightening, Mr. Trump leads Sen. Rubio in the PPD average of Florida Republican primary polls by 16 points. The latest poll shows a closer 8-point race, but still a steep hill for the senator to climb.

March 8, 2016

Alex Conant, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio’s communication

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