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Elections

Trump-Rubio-Cruz-SC-GOP-Debate-Getty

Republican presidential candidates Ted Cruz (L) and Marco Rubio (R) applaud as fellow candidate Donald Trump is introduced during the CBS News Republican Presidential Debate in Greenville, South Carolina, Feb. 13, 2016. (Photo: Jim Watson/Getty Images)

Let’s just get this out of the way first. Donald J. Trump is now highly favored to win the nomination and that’s true even if the field winnows. The Donald’s appeal is attitudinal, not ideological, which allows him to compete in majority rural, suburban and urban congressional districts, as opposed to the historical conservative vs. moderate dynamic that has traditionally been decided in the suburbs.

Because proportional delegates are awarded to candidates in a Republican primary based on the results of voting totals and thresholds in congressional districts, Trump is well-positioned to win the nomination. In fact, as I explained last week to Mr. John Fund at National Review, he can count on little more than his base to do so.

Not let’s talk about the current status of the race.

Florida Sen. Marco Rubio pulled ahead of Texas Sen. Ted Cruz in the last two contests and polls second in several SEC states. That has strengthened the media narrative that a winnowing field can beat Mr. Trump one-one-one. However, the overall data and dynamics of the race show Sen. Cruz is a far stronger anti-Trump candidate overall than Sen. Rubio.

First, the Republican primary electorate is far more conservative than in previous cycles, now clocking in at a 2 to 1 advantage. We are seeing data that contradicts the assumption that Cruz could consolidate the anti-Trump vote easily, but voters agree with him more than Rubio. On the questions of terrorism, gun rights, authenticity, vision, qualifications, values, the economy and judicial appointments, the data show voters favor Cruz over Rubio.

But it really comes down to one single obstacle that Mr. Rubio cannot and will not overcome.

The race for the Republican nomination is a state-by-state contest, one in which a candidate must carry his or her own home state in order to be seen as viable. Losing your own home state can destroy your career, period. We have surveyed the Sunshine State more than anyone for our PPD Election Projection Model and the results are consistent and clear: Sen. Rubio will lose his home state to Mr. Trump.

This was true before the frontrunner went on a three-state winning streak. It was true before and after the debate in South Carolina, the one that was allegedly going to destroy his candidacy. And absent Sen. Rubio going on to actually win several states, it will be true on March 15, when the 99 winner-take-all delegates will be awarded based on the vote.

Mr. Trump leads Sen. Rubio on the PPD average of aggregate Florida Republican Primary polls by roughly 20-points, 19.5%.

The long-held Establishment wisdom and media narrative–which claims when the field winnows a candidate can beat Mr. Trump, who has a low ceiling–is false in Florida, and has been for a while. The Donald defeats Sen. Rubio one-on-one in his own home state by an average 14 points. The reason he is doing so bad is that his state knows him best, pure and simple.

The various Florida tea party groups, who propelled him as an outsider candidate to Republican nominee and eventual winner, have completely abandoned him–for a reason. Veterans, who are frequently cited by Sen. Rubio as the constituency he serves the most, have completely abandoned him–for a reason.

Sen. Cruz has a decent chance to carry his home state of Texas and avoid an embarrassing defeat. Because the state’s delegates are allocated proportionally a win won’t change the fundamental dynamics of the race, but it will allow him to move forward.

That being said, Ohio Gov. John Kasich can make a better home state strategy case then Sen. Rubio, but his appeal has been more limited. With Sen. Rubio out of the race, however, it could change as moderate voters shuffle around. Still, it is likely too late for Gov. Kasich to do anything but force a brokered convention.

Worth noting, for those that don’t know, Sen. Rubio’s strategy now doesn’t even consist of winning many states or taking first place in Florida. The Rubio campaign has a plan to tear apart the primary electorate and party to force a brokered convention, where the party elites can ignore the will of the voters after the first ballot. If they are successful, the Republican Party almost assuredly will be defeated in November.

Finally, let me just end with this caveat. Barring Sen. Rubio drops out right now, as in before Super Tuesday, I don’t even believe Sen. Cruz still has a viable path to the nomination. The truth, whether either campaign admits it or not, is that Mr. Trump has already plowed through their firewall states. South Carolina was a must-win for Sen. Cruz and Nevada was cited over-and-over as Sen. Rubio’s adopted home state and line in the sand.

They both fell.

What I am saying is this: Sen. Rubio has been making the case that the governor and the Texas senator should get out of the race and allow him to take on Mr. Trump. And do what? Lose your own state?

While Sen. Marco Rubio has pulled ahead

Politics, Video

[brid video=”28836″ player=”2077″ title=”Donald Trump Calls Out Amazon Washington Post Owner Jeff Bezos and The New York Times”]

Donald Trump called out Jeff Bezos of Amazon, who also owns The Washington Post, as well as The New York Times and promised to take on the liberal media. The Donald’s remarks, which also included a promise to “open up libel laws,” came at a campaign rally in Ft. Worth, Texas where he was endorsed by New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie.

“I have to tell you, I have respect for Jeff Bezos, but he bought The Washington Post to have political influence and I got to tell you, we have a different country than we used to have. We have a different — He owns Amazon. He wants political influence so that Amazon will benefit from it,” Trump said Friday. “That’s not right. And believe me, if I become president, oh, do they have problems. They’re going to have such problems.”

The New Jersey governor, who has been friends with Mr. Trump for roughly a decade, was the frontrunner’s first big name political endorsement from a previous candidate. Gov. Christie suspended his campaign for president after New Hampshire. Gov. Christie is a former federal prosecutor who served the district after the September 11, 2001 terror attacks. His name has been floating as a highly qualified U.S. Attorney General, as well as a potential vice presidential nominee.

DONALD TRUMP: I’ll tell you what, I think the media is among the most dishonest groups of people I’ve ever met. They’re terrible. The New York Times, which is losing a fortune, which is a failing newspaper, which probably won’t be around that much longer, but probably somebody will buy it as a trophy, keep it going for a little longer. But I think The New York Times is one of the most dishonest media outlets I’ve ever seen in my life. The worst, the worst. The absolute worst. They have an agenda that you wouldn’t believe. And they’re run by incompetent people. They are totally incompetently run. Washington Post, I have to tell you, I have respect for Jeff Bezos, but he bought The Washington Post to have political influence and I got to tell you, we have a different country than we used to have. We have a different — He owns Amazon. He wants political influence so that Amazon will benefit from it. That’s not right. And believe me, if I become president, oh, do they have problems. They’re going to have such problems.

And one of the things I’m going to do, and this is only going to make it tougher for me, and I’ve never said this before, but one of the things I’m going to do if I win — and I hope I do and we’re certainly leading — is I’m going to open up our libel laws so when they write purposely negative and horrible and false articles, we can sue them and win lots of money. We’re going to open up those libel laws. So that when The New York Times writes a hit piece, which is a total disgrace, or when the Washington Post, which is there for other reasons, writes a hit piece, we can sue them and win money instead of having no chance of winning because they’re totally protected. You see, with me, they’re not protected because I’m not like other people but I’m not taking money. I’m not taking their money. So we’re going to open up those libel laws folks and we’re going to have people sue you like you never got sued before. We have many things to do. We have many, many things to do.

Donald Trump called out Jeff Bezos of

Policy

Puerto-Rico-flag

Flag of Puerto Rico. (Photo: Getty)

When I point out that Puerto Rico got in trouble by allowing the burden of government spending to grow faster than the private economy, thus violating my Golden Rule, honest leftists will admit that’s true but then challenge me on what should happen next.

That’s a very fair – and difficult – question. The amount of government debt in Puerto Rico is so large that repayment would be a big challenge. In effect, today’s taxpayers and tomorrow’s taxpayers would suffer because of the reckless choices of yesterday’s politicians.

golden-ruleIt could be done, to be sure, just like Greece could dig its way out of debt with a sufficient degree of spending restraint.

That being said, I’m not necessarily opposed to debt relief. Whether you call it default, restructuring, or something else, debt relief would give Puerto Rico a better chance of getting back on its feet. Moreover, I’m not exactly overflowing with sympathy for investors who lent money to Puerto Rico’s profligate government. Maybe they’ll be more prudent in the future if they lose some of their money today.

But here’s my quandary (and I feel the same way about Greece): I don’t mind debt relief if it’s part of a deal that actually produces better policy.

But I’m opposed to debt relief if it simply gives an irresponsible government “fiscal space” to maintain wasteful programs and other counterproductive forms of spending.

And I see very little evidence that Puerto Rico is interested in making the needed structural reforms to alter the long-run trend of ever-rising outlays.

Nor do I see any evidence that Puerto Rican officials are pushing for much-needed reforms in areas other than fiscal policy. Where’s the big push to get exempted from the Jones Act, a union-friendly piece of legislation that significantly increases the cost of shipping goods to and from the mainland? Where are the calls to get Puerto Rico an exemption from minimum wage laws that are harmful on the mainland but devastating in a less-developed economy?

These are some of the reasons why I don’t want to reward Puerto Rico’s feckless political class by granting debt relief.

And here’s something else to add to the list. Notwithstanding 40 centuries of evidence that price controls are a form of economic malpractice, the government has decided to use coercion to prohibit voluntary transactions between consenting adults.

The excuse is the Zika virus, but the result will be failure. Here’s some of whatCNN is reporting.

The government of Puerto Rico has ordered a price freeze on condoms… Any store that hikes prices to try to capitalize on people’s fears of the virus will be fined up to $10,000. Other items on the price-freeze list: insect repellent, hand sanitizer and tissues. …The price gauging [sic] ban went into effect at the end of January on mosquito repellents. Condoms were added to the list in early February… “The price freeze remains in effect until after the emergency is over,” Nery Adames, Secretary of the Department of Consumer Affairs, tells CNN.

By the way, you’ll notice that the government didn’t address the one thing it legitimately could have done to reduce condom prices.

Condoms are subject to the island’s 11.5% sales tax, one of the highest in the nation.

But let’s focus on the policy of price controls.

With his usual clarity, Professor Don Boudreaux explains the consequences of these horrid restrictions on market forces.

 The price freeze will prevent the Zika-inspired rise in the demand for condoms from calling forth an increase in the quantity of condoms supplied to satisfy that higher demand.  The resulting shortage of condoms will prompt some people to wait in queues to buy condoms, cause other people to turn to black-market suppliers, and cause yet other people simply to not use condoms during sex.  Each of these consequences reflects the reality that the price freeze, rather than keeping the cost of condoms “cheap,” will raise that cost inordinately – and, in the process, further promote the spread of Zika.

Amen. Don is spot on about the negative consequences of allowing politicians and bureaucrats to interfere with market prices.

So, we have a government “solution” that actually makes a problem worse.

Just as price controls have contributed toeconomic misery in Venezuela. Or caused shortages after hurricanes in the United States. Puerto Rico needs its version of Ludwig Erhard. Instead, it’s governed by people who apparently learned economics from Hugo Chavez.

[mybooktable book=”global-tax-revolution-the-rise-of-tax-competition-and-the-battle-to-defend-it” display=”summary” buybutton_shadowbox=”true”]

Puerto Rico got in trouble by allowing

Politics

Rubio-Christie-Split-GOP-Debate-Getty

Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, left, clashes with New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, right, in the final Republican debate before the New Hampshire primary on Feb. 6, 2016. (Photo: Joe Raedle/Getty Images)dn’t h

New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie in Fort Worth, Texas on Friday endorsed Donald Trump for the Republican nomination, slamming Florida. Sen. Marco Rubio.

“I am proud to be here to endorse Donald Trump for president of the United States,” Mr. Christie, a former 2016 Republican presidential candidate, said at an event in Texas with Mr. Trump.

Gov. Christie also addressed a reporters question regarding the debate, specifically what many saw was Rubio’s desperate last-minute opposition research dump on the debate stage. The Florida senator is trailing Mr. Trump badly in his own home state, which is 99 winner-take-all delegates on March 15, both in a split field and one-on-one.

“I’ve seen it many times in politics. He’s just throwing flailing punches in the final days of a losing campaign,” Gov. Christie said in Fort Worth, Texas. “What we didn’t hear from Senator Rubio was anything about the American people,” he added when asked about Rubio calling Trump “a con artist.”

The endorsement comes after a fiery debate between the remaining five candidates, which both Sens. Rubio and Ted Cruz piling on The Donald in the hope to stop him from sweeping the South during Super Tuesday on March 1.

“To me, it’s a very big endorsement,” Mr. Trump said. “This was an endorsement that really meant a lot. … This is the one endorsement I felt very strongly about that I wanted to get.”

New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie in Fort

Entertainment

Fox-News-debate-moderator

From left to right: Fox News debate moderators Chris Wallace, Megyn Kelly, and Bret Baier. (Photo: AP)

In August, FOX News hosted the first Republican presidential debate and boasted their highest ratings ever, but their brand among Republicans has tanked. According to a YouGov BrandIndex survey, their image among the general public overall has also taken a dive, and are now on par with CNN with trend lines moving in the wrong direction.

“By mid February,” according to YouGov, Fox’s “perception by Republican adults 18 and over had reached its lowest point in more than three years, and has declined by approximately 50% since January of this year.”

Fox News Brand YouGov BrandIndex

Okay, let’s cut to the chase. We all know why FOX, allegedly the “Most Trusted Name in News,” even had high ratings, particularly during the debate. His name rhymes with Thump. And we all also know why their brand is on the decline.

To measure perception of the two networks, YouGov BrandIndex used its Buzz score, which asks respondents: “If you’ve heard anything about the brand in the last two weeks, through advertising, news or word of mouth, was it positive or negative?” A score can range from 100 to -100 with a zero score equaling a neutral position.

While on January 1, 2013, Fox News scored slightly over 49 with Republican adults 18 and over, the first GOP debate last August was obviously the pivot point. The score immediately after the debate dropped to 38.

FOX News Brand YouGov BrandIndex

What does this mean? Everyone in the media and party knew behind the scenes that FOX News collaborated with the Republican National Committee to pick and choose eligible candidates via the rules, elevate and intentional sabotage others. Well, apparently, the voters and viewers at home have caught on to their little game.

How bad is it? While he hasn’t won a single contest, FOX News has repeatedly elevated and played the expectations game with Florida Sen. Marco Rubio. Brooke Sammon, the daughter of FOX News vice president and Washington managing editor Bill Sammon, also happens to be Rubio’s messaging chief. Further, Sammon (the father) gave questioning cues to debate moderators Chris Wallace, Megyn Kelly, and Bret Baier.

Sammon’s LinkedIn page lists her work as a “Public Relations Associate” for FOX News personality Dana Perino, who previously served as President George W. Bush’s press secretary. Sammon worked for Perino at Dana Perino & Company from October 2009 to November 2010.

Indeed, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and his supporters have also complained about unfair treatment and candidate bias toward former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and Rubio. However, FOX News responded by claiming Sen. Cruz is not as available to them as the other candidates have been. In truth, Danny Diaz, Bush’s former campaign manager, did not even appear on FOX News until a few ago during an interview with Jenna Lee.

By that time, it was crystal clear that the Bush campaign was not only not inevitable, as most FOX pundits pushed, but also that they had a real challenge in their path to the nomination.

According to a YouGov BrandIndex survey, FOX

Uncategorized

2016 Michigan Republican Primary

59 Delegates: Proportional Winner-Take-Most (March 8, 2016)

(Please Note: The 59 total delegates include 10 base at-large, 42 per 14 congressional districts, 3 party and 4 bonus.)

[election_2016_polls]

Polling Data

[wpdatatable id=34]

Above is the latest 2016 Michigan Republican Primary polls and PPD average for the March 8, 2016, proportional Winner-Take-Most contest. All 59 of the state’s delegates to the Republican National Convention are bound to candidates based on the results of the vote in the Michigan Republican Primary.

However, if a candidate received 50% or more of the statewide vote, then that candidate receives all of the state’s 59 delegates. Further, there is a 15-percentage point statewide vote threshold that could allow a candidate to receive all of the state’s delegates.

But if no candidate receives at least 15% of the statewide vote, then the threshold shall be the percentage of the vote cast for the candidate with the most votes (rounded up or down to the nearest 10th of a percent) minus 5% (thus, were the statewide winner to receive but 14.3% of the vote, the new threshold would then be 9.3%).

[ssbp]

2016 Michigan Republican Primary 59 Delegates: Proportional Winner-Take-Most (March

Economy

consumer sentiment men shopping

Shoppers at Third Street Promenade outdoor shopping mall on August 17, 2012 in Santa Monica, California. (Photo: Reuters)

The University of Michigan final consumer sentiment index for February registered at 91.7, up from a preliminary reading of 90.7 and a final January reading of 92.0.

“Consumer confidence nearly recovered the entire small loss it recorded at mid month, with the Sentiment Index finishing February just 0.3 Index-points below January,” said Surveys of Consumers chief economist, Richard Curtin. “Although consumers are not as optimistic as at the start of last year, the Sentiment Index is just 6.5% below the cyclical peak of 98.1 set in January 2015. Such a small decline is hardly consistent with the onset of a downturn in consumer spending.”

While Curtain said the current 6.5% decline “hardly merits a recession warning,” it does indicate a somewhat slower expansion in consumer expenditures-to 2.7% in 2016, down from 3.1% in 2015. He added that the impact on the labor market, however, will be measurable.

“Rather modest wage gains as well as very low inflation have meant that consumers expect increases in their real incomes during the year ahead,” Curtain said. “Consumers’ most important concern involves how much the slowdown in GDP growth will affect employment growth. At present, consumers anticipate only a slight negative impact on jobs.”

Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal had expected the February index would hold at 90.7.

Final Results for Consumer Sentiment Index in February 2016

Feb Jan Feb M-M Y-Y
2016 2016 2015 Change Change
Index of Consumer Sentiment 91.7 92.0 95.4 -0.3% -3.9%
Current Economic Conditions 106.8 106.4 106.9 +0.4% -0.1%
Index of Consumer Expectations 81.9 82.7 88.0 -1.0% -6.9%
Next data release: March 18, 2016 for Preliminary March data at 10am ET

The University of Michigan final consumer sentiment

Economy

Gross-Domestic-Product-GDP-Reuters

File photo: Shipping cranes and containers at a U.S. port representing exports and imports factored in overall gross domestic product, or GDP. (Photo: REUTERS)

U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) showed economic growth slowed in the fourth quarter to a pitiful 1% pace, but it did still beat estimates. The latest GDP number topped the previously reported 0.7% pace, according to the Commerce Department report released on Friday.

Economists polled by Reuters had expected that fourth-quarter GDP growth to be downwardly revised to a 0.4% pace. Meanwhile, the U.S. economy grew at a rate of just 2.0% in the third quarter, far below historical averages since World War II.

The Commerce Department report said businesses accumulated $81.7 billion worth of inventory, up from the $68.6 billion initially reported last month. The largest industry contributors to inventory investment were retail trade and mining, utilities and construction. With the new data, inventories sliced off only 0.14% from GDP growth instead of the previously reported 0.45%.

First-quarter GDP growth estimates are as high as a 2.5% rate, but a strong dollar, recent global and domestic slowdowns have tightened financial markets. The upward revision to fourth-quarter GDP growth was also fueled by a smaller trade deficit than initially reported. The trade deficit subtracted 0.25% point from GDP growth instead of the 0.47% point reported last month.

Business spending on equipment sliced off just 1.8% rate last quarter, compared to the initially reported 2.5%. However, there were also downward revisions to consumer spending, which accounts for more than two thirds of all U.S. economic activity. Consumer spending rose by 2.0% rather than 2.2% rate reported last month.

U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) showed economic

Polls

Donald-Trump-Marco-Rubio-Getty

Donald J. Trump, left, waves to supporters on caucus night in Las Vegas, Nev., on Feb. 24, 2016, while Florida Sen. Marco Rubio speaks to supporters at a S.C. rally. (Photos: Getty Images)

No wonder Florida Sen. Marco Rubio lobbed an overload of opposition research at Donald Trump at the debate in Houston. According to the latest Florida Republican primary polls, Trump is trouncing Rubio by double-digits in his own home state and, even if the rest of the field falters, it won’t save the favorite son from an embarrassing defeat.

Mr. Trump is dominating in the state with 45% of the vote to just 25% for Sen. Rubio, while just 10% said they will back Texas Sen. Ted Cruz. Ohio Gov. John Kasich, who is also trailing the frontrunner in his own home state, received just 8% and 5% went for Dr. Ben Carson.

“Marco Rubio needs to hope tonight’s debate was a big game changer,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “He was so weak going in that he couldn’t beat out Donald Trump one on one even in Florida.”

While Rubio has made the case–among others–that Trump is weak in a head-to-head matchup, the numbers no longer support that argument. Trump still leads Rubio by double digits, 52% to 38%, when Sunshine State Republicans have to choose between the two. According to PPP, Rubio garners supporters of Cruz (56/25), Kasich (47/32), and Carson (64/21) in this scenario, but Trump has too big of a lead to start. He also picks up enough of the supporters of the also rans that it gives him the overall 14-point lead.

Unfortunately, for Sen. Rubio, focus groups show he didn’t change the fundamentals of the race, at all. While most believed Sen. Rubio had a strong night, the voters in both PPD’s and Frank Luntz’s focus groups said they are still voting for Trump on March 15.

“The bottom line is that voters want a doer, not a talker,” said PPD’s senior political analyst Richard Baris. “Further, Florida Tea Partiers, the very voters who are to thank for Mr. Rubio’s success, have completely abandoned him for Mr. Trump.”

While 36% of Florida Republican primary voters say they might change their minds, Mr. Trump has by far the most committed supporters–79% say they will definitely vote for him, compared to 62% for Sen. Cruz, 54% for Sen. Rubio, 44% for Gov. Kasich, and just 26% for Dr. Carson. Among voters who’ve completely made up their minds, Mr. Trump gets 59% to 22% for Sen. Rubio, 10% for Sen. Cruz, 6% for Gov. Kasich, and 2% for Dr. Carson.

“Trump’s hold on the GOP electorate is thorough. He leads with 51% of men, 51% of younger voters, 49% of moderates, 43% of somewhat conservative voters, 41% of seniors, 39% of women, and 39% of very conservative voters,” Mr. Debnam said. “There’s not a single group we track he doesn’t have a double digit lead with. Beyond leading the head to head with Rubio, Trump also gets 51% in a three man field to 33% for Rubio, and 11% for Cruz. And he leads Cruz 62/30 head to head.”

Donald J. Trump now leads Sen. Marco Rubio on the PPD average of Florida Republican Primary polls by 19.5%, or 40.3% to 20.8%. There are 99 delegates awarded on a Winner-Take-All basis on March 15.

Also Read — Rubio, Cruz Throw Kitchen Sink at Trump in 10th Republican Debate, and Change Nothing

No wonder Florida Sen. Marco Rubio through

Politics

Marco-Rubio-Donald-Trump-Ted-Cruz

Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, left, billionaire real estate mogul Donald Trump, center, and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, right, at the Republican debate hosted by CNN ahead of Super Tuesday. (Photo: AP)

Florida Sen. Marco Rubio and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz threw everything including the kitchen sink at Donald Trump during the 10th Republican debate in Houston. As usual, the media quickly declared Sen. Rubio the victor. But in politics we see what we want to see, not necessarily reality.

The reality is that there likely wasn’t a single issue or attack line leveled by either desperate senator that stuck to the frontrunner. As I’ve repeated over-and-over, Mr. Trump’s appeal is attitudinal, not ideological. A dominant plurality, which is quickly approaching a majority of primary voters in many states, see what most pundits and pols believe to be weaknesses as strengths.

For instance, nobody cares Trump neckties are manufactured in Mexico. Not only do voters understand a smart businessman would manufacture products where the cost is lower, but also view Mr. Trump as best suited to handle this economic disadvantage because of his experience. Unlike the rest of the field, he’s actually in the game, he doesn’t just talk about it. Sen. Rubio, on the other hand, hasn’t held a single job in the private sector and voters–particularly Floridians–know it.

“I’m the only person on this stage who’s actually hired someone,” Trump said in response to Rubio’s attack.

Let’s look at reality, the big picture and the aggregate data relevant to the Super Tuesday states.

Of voters who support Mr. Trump, roughly 80% say their minds are made up, while only about 17% say they are still persuadable. By comparison, only 45% of Sen. Rubio’s supporters are firm, while roughly 60% say they can change their mind. In Iowa, South Carolina and Nevada, Sen. Rubio won the final week before the vote and late-breaking voters, according to the exit and entrance polls.

But Sen. Rubio hasn’t won a single state while Mr. Trump has won the last six months. In politics, early preferences are often very difficult to reverse.

“I mean, this guy [Rubio] is a choke artist and that guy’s [Cruz] a liar,” largely neutralizes any impact the senators and their supporters think they may have had on Trump. In one sentence, he reenforced what has plagued both candidates in recent weeks.

Sen. Cruz has firmer support. Among Mr. Cruz’s supporters, 58% say their minds are made up and 40% remain squishy. But the Texas senator has failed to even consolidate his targeted voting blocs against Mr. Trump, let alone demonstrate he is capable of expanding that appeal. Unfortunately, he is quickly running out of time.

The bottom line is that neither Sen. Rubio nor Sen. Cruz are going to have a break out moment in a debate. We are way beyond that now. One of them need to make a decision to withdraw from the race, but it still may be too late.

Appearing on the morning shows Friday, Sen. Rubio robo-repeated a talking point that “we are not going to let a con artist take over the Republican Party.” In reality, both Cuban-American senators are trailing in the delegate race, the polls and are in danger of losing their home states on March 1 and March 15. It’s happening, and nothing that happened Thursday night will change that. Mr. Trump’s rivals better come up with something better than largely six-month old attacks or it’s all over.

Also Read — Trump Trouncing Rubio 1-on-1 in Latest Florida Republican Primary Polls

Sen. Marco Rubio and Sen. Ted Cruz

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