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Consumers ready for holiday shopping, the busiest time of the year for retail outlets. (Photo: Reuters)

Retail sales in the U.S. unexpectedly fell in December, marking an end to a year that posted the weakest reading since the end of the Great Recession in 2009. The Commerce Department said on Friday retail sales fell 0.1% after an upwardly revised 0.4% gain in November, the latest indication the economy slowed down sharply in the fourth quarter.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast retail sales unchanged after a previously reported 0.2% rise in November and, for 2015, U.S. retail sales gained by just 2.1%, which is the weakest reading since 2009, after rising 3.9% in 2014.

The Commerce Department blamed an unseasonably warm winter–and last year they blamed the cold for December missing expectations–but the report is coupled with weak data out of construction, manufacturing and exports. The data could cause economists to lower their fourth-quarter GDP estimates.

Excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services, retail sales in the U.S. fell 0.3% after a downwardly revised 0.5% rise the prior month. These so-called core retail sales correspond most closely with the consumer spending component of gross domestic product. Core retail sales were initially reported to have gained 0.6% in November and economists had forecast them rising 0.3% last month.

U.S. Retail sales unexpectedly fell in December,

Lindsey Graham Jeb Bush

Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, left, accepts the endorsement from South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham on Friday Jan. 15, 2015. (Photo: FOX News)

South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham, a foreign policy hawk, on Friday endorsed former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush in race for the 2016 Republican nomination. Graham, a neoconservative who until recently was a presidential candidate himself, said Bush was best-prepared to lead the military and had the most comprehensive plan to defeat the Islamic State.

“I have concluded without any hesitation, without any doubt, that Jeb Bush is ready on day one to be a commander-in-chief worthy of the sacrifices of the 1 percent who have been fighting this war,” Sen. Graham said at a press conference Friday morning.

Bush said Graham was “probably the most knowledgable person on the Hill” regarding foreign policy and national security. “His endorsement is very meaningful, and along with it come a lot of friends and supporters of his. So I’m excited about it.”

The endorsement comes the day after the sixth Republican debate hosted by Fox Business Network debate in North Charleston, South Carolina. The Bush campaign and the establishment party elites are hoping to ramp up Jeb!’s momentum right before the first in the nation primary starts voting. Bush, along with Ohio Gov. John Kasich, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, all are hinging their campaigns on their performance in the Granite State.

Still, in reality, it is less than clear how significant–if at all–Graham’s endorsement is, even in his own home state. Bush’s poll numbers have been abysmal in recent months and have been on the slide since frontrunner Donald Trump, who leads the field in the Palmetto State, announced his candidacy. In fact, Graham never led the prospective field on the PPD aggregate average of polls and wisely dropped out of the presidential race in December before suffering an embarrassing defeat.

South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham, a foreign

Northeast Regional Manufacturing Activity in Contraction for Sixth Straight Month

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(Photo: Reuters)

The Empire State Manufacturing Survey, a monthly gauge of regional manufacturers conducted by The New York Federal Reserve, fell thirteen points to -19.4. January marks the sixth consecutive month regional manufacturing activity in the Northeast contracted, and the survey declined at the fastest pace since the Great Recession.

The new orders and shipments indexes completely plummeted, indicating a steep decline in both orders and shipments. Price indexes suggested that both input prices and selling prices increased.

Labor market conditions also continued to deteriorate, the New York Fed reported, with employment indexes remaining in negative contraction territory. The index for number of employees was negative for a fifth straight month, though it did tick up slightly by three points to -13.0. Last month, the average workweek sharply declined but the index inched up this month. However, it remained negative at -6.0.

The six-month outlook was noticeably weaker, with the index for future general business conditions falling to its lowest level since early 2009.

The Empire State Manufacturing Survey is the first of a series of monthly reports on regional manufacturing data. Last month, all regional indexes were in contraction territory and nationwide data, reported by the Institute of Supply Management, also showed contraction. The Supplemental Survey Report on job vacancies, worker skills and wages will be released January 19 at 8:30 a.m.

The Empire State Manufacturing Survey, a gauge

consumer sentiment men shopping

Shoppers at Third Street Promenade outdoor shopping mall on August 17, 2012 in Santa Monica, California. (Photo: Reuters)

The Survey of Consumers, a closely-watched gauge of consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan, ticked up to 93.3 in January from a final reading in December of 92.6.

“Consumer confidence inched upward for the fourth consecutive month due to more positive expectations for future economic growth,” Surveys of Consumers chief economist, Richard Curtin said. “Personal financial prospects have remained largely unchanged during the past year at the most favorable levels since 2007 largely due to trends in inflation rather than wages. Indeed, expected wage gains fell to their lowest level in a year in early January, but were more than offset by declines in the expected inflation rate.”

Wall Street expected a slightly lower reading of 93, but inflation-adjusted income expectations rose to their highest level in nine years. Unfortunately, consumer optimism is now dependent on the continuation of an extraordinarily low inflation rate. A report released by the Labor Department Friday found wholesale inflation slid in December by 0.2%.

“Rather than welcoming a rising inflation rate as a signal of a strengthening economy, consumers are now more likely to reduce the pace of their spending and thus act to erase the Fed’s rationale for higher interest rates,” Curtin added. “Given the favorable overall state of the Sentiment Index, the data continue to indicate that real personal consumption expenditures can be expected to advance by 2.8% in 2016.”

Preliminary Consumer Sentiment Results for January 2016

Jan Dec Jan M-M Y-Y
2016 2015 2015 Change Change
Index of Consumer Sentiment 93.3 92.6 98.1 +0.8% -4.9%
Current Economic Conditions 105.1 108.1 109.3 -2.8% -3.8%
Index of Consumer Expectations 85.7 82.7 91.0 +3.6% -5.8%
Next data release: January 29, 2016 for Final January data at 10am ET

The Survey of Consumers, a closely-watched gauge

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U.S. workers on the production assembly line. (Photo: Reuters)

The Labor Department reported on Friday that the Producer Price Index, a gauge of prices at the wholesale level, slid 0.2% in December, matching views. Prices excluding the volatile food and energy components rose just 0.1%, also matching economists’ expectations.

However, the latest data indicate that inflation will more than likely not match the Federal Reserve’s target rate long-cited as a prerequisite for raising interest rates. The Fed, which uses their own gauge to measure inflation, announced last month that they are raising their benchmark rate by a quarter of a percentage point to between 0.25 and 0.50%.

In the 12 months through December, the PPI fell 1.0% after declining 1.1% in November, with the month of December marking the 11th straight 12-month decrease in the index. Producer prices fell 1.0 percent in 2015, which was the weakest level since the PPI was introduced in 2010, after rising 0.9% in 2014. Economists had forecast the PPI falling 0.2 percent last month and declining 1.0 percent from a year ago.

The so-called core PPI was up 0.3 percent in the 12 months through December and goods prices fell 0.7%, marking the sixth straight month of declines. The cost of services edged up 0.1% after a 0.5% increase in November, while energy prices fell 3.4% after dropping 0.6% the month prior. Wholesale food prices fell 1.3% after gaining 0.3%.

The PPI comes after a report on Thursday revealed a steep decline in import prices in December.

The Labor Department reported on Friday that

A Total of 12 People were on Board During Collision Off Hawaiian Island

U.S.-Coast-Guard-Helicopter

File: U.S. Coast Guard

The U.S. Coast Guard searching for two Marine helicopters that collided early Friday with 12 people on board near the Hawaiian island of Oahu found an empty debris field.

Coast Guard District 14 told CBS News that its personnel arrived on scene to find an empty life raft and fire on the water. The CH-53E “Super Stallion” helicopters were from the 1st Marine Aircraft Wing from Marine Corps Base Hawaii. Each carried six people, Coast Guard Chief Petty Officer Sara Mooers told The Associated Press.

Mooers said the debris field was 2 1/2 miles off the coast, near the town of Haleiwa.

The aircraft were taking part in a nighttime training mission, according to NBC News. It’s unclear what caused the crash.

A Navy helicopter crew and local firefighters were assisting in the search, ABC News reports.

The U.S. Coast Guard searching for two

Obama-SOTU-2016-Getty

U.S. President Barack Obama, center, gives his final State of the Union (SOTU) address to Congress and the nation on January 12, 2015. (Photo: Alex Wong/Getty Images)

In their State of the Union speeches, all previous presidents presented their policies in the most favorable light, but did they go so far as to distort reality? Did they use them to trash their opponents?

I don’t think so. But in his last one, Obama did, and adding insult to injury, as always, he pointedly decried partisan sniping right before launching into another episode of partisan sniping. It’s as though he doesn’t even realize he’s being hypocritical on steroids.

Obama is also the first president to have framed his SOTU speeches, in part, as high-school debate rebuttals. He must tell his speechwriters to bullet criticisms of his record and then craft a point-by-point rebuttal. If you haven’t noticed, it’s a formula for negativity and partisan rancor — the very things he denounces.

In addition, no other president has presented his record so inaccurately that informed and unbrainwashed viewers must conclude that the primary target of Obama’s deception is Obama himself. If he were capable of digesting how bad his record is, he surely wouldn’t embarrass himself by portraying it so falsely.

Obama claimed that there are no existential threats facing this nation, that his economy is robust, that his educational record is stellar, that people who are skeptical that global warming is man-made are fools, that the United States is more respected internationally now than it was before he took office, that Obamacare has lived up to its promises, that the military is overfunded, that ISIS members are just fanatics and killers riding around in pickup trucks, that his “clean energy” programs are superior, that people who support entitlement reform are the irresponsible ones — saying we should actually double down on these bankrupting boondoggles — that proponents of an orderly immigration system are bigots, that Ted Cruz’s pledge to aggressively pursue the Islamic State is code for deliberately bombing innocent civilians, that he himself deserves praise for reducing the deficit, that he values bipartisanship and compromise and ideas other than his own, that it’s morning in America and that he’s just getting warmed up and planning on engineering further transformational change at the expiration of his term.

Can you imagine having this record of failure, bragging about it and promising to deliver more misery into the indefinite future? It would be like the owner of the Chicago Cubs pledging to keep winning the World Series.

As for existential threats, try ISIS, a government-sponsored invasion of our borders by immigrants whom the left encourages not to assimilate or embrace the American idea, out-of-control entitlements, the exploding national debt and the systematic assault on the Constitution and rule of law by a renegade executive branch and cynical, activist judiciary branch.

Obama’s recovery is the worst in 50 years. He insists we accept anemic 2 percent growth as the new, wonderful normal. The labor participation rate is at its lowest since the 1970s. The median household income has fallen to a 20-year low, as has homeownership. Dependency programs, including food stamps, have skyrocketed. The poverty level is soaring. And Obama is hellbent on doubling the national debt. If it weren’t for some mild Republican resistance, there is no telling how much higher spending would be. He mocks responsible people who would structurally reform entitlements, which are guaranteed to become insolvent and also bankrupt the nation.

Obama touts his clean energy program but omits that government is subsidizing it and sabotaging the natural gas and coal industries. It’s pretty easy to take credit for the winners when you abuse power to pick winners and losers.

Though Obama boasts that Obamacare has caused 18 million more to be insured, it has been a complete disaster. The overwhelming number of additional insured people are from Medicaid expansion. People have lost their doctors and plans in droves. Premiums and deductibles have not decreased as promised but increased enormously.

Though Obama ridicules non-joiners of the apocalyptic global warming cult, he has never explained how the draconian measures he favors, even if fully implemented, would make a dent in reducing mean global temperature over the next century.

He has made a consummate mess of foreign policy, engineering the decline of the United States as the world’s sole superpower, alienating our allies and coddling our enemies. He continues to defund the military; the Army will decline by some 40,000 more soldiers in the next two years alone, and we’re below strength necessary to fight in two different theaters — always viewed as the acid test for readiness. He has grossly mistreated Israel, to which Saudi Arabia and Egypt have now had to turn because of his untrustworthiness. He claims to have ISIS contained — though it is in 20 nations, continues to wreak havoc in the Middle East and is a significant threat in the United States and Europe in the eyes of former intelligence, military and security advisers.

Then there are things Obama didn’t mention, such as his record-breaking performance in dividing the nation along racial, gender and economic lines. His commandeering of the IRS to target his political enemies. His multi-pronged assault on the Constitution. His assaults on religious liberty. His nightmarish concessions to Iran, which have emboldened its tyrannical regime to be even more defiant — already violating the nuke deal with its ballistic missile program and lawlessly kidnapping our sailors.
Yes, folks, things are going swimmingly, and there’s nothing to see here, so let’s turn the volume down, OK?

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Limbaugh: Barack Obama is the first president

FOX-Business-Republican-Debate-SC

Donald Trump, top-left, and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, top-right, clash over whether or not the latter is eligible to run for president. The entire GOP field takes the stage in North Charleston, S.C., for the sixth Republican primary debate hosted by FOX Business Network on January 14, 2016. (Photos: FNC/FBN)

The seven top-tier GOP presidential candidates took the stage on Thursday for the sixth Republican debate in North Charleston, South Carolina. As expected, there were fireworks that some candidates weathered better than others. Here is how the PPD Panel scored it:

Billionaire real estate mogul Donald Trump gave his best debate performance to date, which ultimately means he came out ahead despite the fireworks between him and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz. The freshman senator, who is Trump’s toughest Iowa contender, hasn’t been able to hit the frontrunner hard enough to knock him off the top spot nationally. Nothing changed Thursday.

Mr. Cruz, a favorite of tea partiers and religious conservatives in the Hawkeye State, clearly held his own in the quickly escalating feud with Trump. He noted Trump ignored the birther questions last year, and was only going after the issue because of the tightening of the polls.

“The Constitution hasn’t changed, but the poll numbers changed,” Cruz said. Pointing out Trump’s mother was born in Scotland, Cruz said: “On the issue of citizenship, I’m not going to use your mother’s birth against you.”

Trump said, “But I was born here … big difference.”

But Cruz may have made a big, even critical mistake by using poll-tested attacks on New Yorkers ahead of the Feb. 1 Iowa caucuses. The Donald was able to turn the tides on Cruz for questioning his “New York values.” In a powerful moment, Trump recalled memories from after 9/11 and described the “horrific” clean up and the “smell of death” in the city.

“It was with us for months, the smell,” Trump said. “And everybody in the world loved New York, loved New Yorkers — and I have to tell you, that was a very insulting statement.”

He went on to rebut Cruz’s assertion that “not many conservatives come from Manhattan. I’m just saying.”

Trump quickly fired back that William F. Buckley came out of the Big Apple. As of Thursday, Trump and Cruz are neck-and-neck in PPD’s aggregate Iowa caucus polls.

Marco Rubio focused earlier in the debate on bashing outgoing President Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. But Rubio and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie–who are competing with Cruz, Ohio Gov. John Kasich and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush for the No. 2 position in New Hampshire–soon took shots at one point over Christie’s conservative credentials. Christie fired back by suggesting Rubio was guilty of playing the same card that Bush played against him in the last debate.

Christie, who is surging in the Granite State, posted another solid debate performance. The New Jersey governor is surging to the top tier in the final few weeks, just when it matters most. He also had one of the best lines of the night with his quick “you blew it, Marco” dismissal.

Worth noting, Trump still has a large lead in PPD’s aggregate polling in the first in the nation primary state.

Though Jeb(!) also saw his best debate performance yet against the billionaire, it’s still too little too late. Kasich, as well, continued to look cranky at times and dismissive of voters’ frustrations and concerns. While Carson pointed out that economic experts–including our own resident contributing economist Dan Mitchell, a senior fellow at the CATO Institute–scored his tax plan the highest, he had to do something to inject new energy into his campaign.

That didn’t happen.

The seven top-tier Republican presidential candidates took

Obama deserves the most scrutiny, and the harshest judgment

us navy sailors

By now, most news-watchers around the world have seen the video clips or screen grabs of the surrender of 10 U.S. sailors to Iran’s armed revolutionary guard, as well as the subsequent televised apology of the American identified by Tehran’s Press TV as the commander of the group.

But little has been said about the sailors’ actions as they pertain to the Code of the U.S. Fighting Force. That’s the doctrine that requires all members of U.S. military forces to take whatever steps necessary to oppose captors–to uphold, as it reads, the “Code of Conduct, which has evolved from the heroic lives, experiences and deeds of Americans from Revolutionary War to the Southeast Asian Conflict.”

Frankly speaking, members of the U.S. military shouldn’t be taking knees before their captors–shouldn’t be leaning back with smiles against the walls of their places of capture – shouldn’t be sitting in placid defeatism with forced hijabs or other un-American military garb upon their heads. And they definitely shouldn’t be doing it while video cameras roll.

us-sailors-iran-main

It’s not just U.S. code that requires U.S. military forces, if captured, to “resist by all means available.” It’s not just U.S. code that states “when questioned” by captors, to give only “name, rank, service number and date of birth” and to “evade answering further questions to the utmost of my ability,” including making “oral or written statements disloyal to my country and its allies or harmful to their cause.”

It’s America’s spirit that ought to compel the same.

Seeing members of the United States military, the greatest fighting force on the face of the Earth, in a state of submission, defeat and humility before armed rag-tags is a disgusting commentary on the sickened spirit of our country. What happened to the notion of never surrender? What happened to the surprised wakening of the sleeping giant?

Where are the George Pattons of our generation?

Surrender has no place in America’s military – whether speaking of declared war or tool of propaganda. Americans. Don’t. Surrender.

Gen. Jack Keane, the retired four-star general of the U.S. Army and former Vice Chief of Staff for the Army, hinted during a Fox News broadcast interview the sailors’ behavior and response to Iran’s aggression was going to be part of the ensuing investigation. He said, in broadcast remarks: “[The apology was] not an apology from the United States government, that’s an apology from the youngster who’s trying to protect his crew, and his behavior will be held accountable for in any investigation to determine whether that was justified or not.”

Good. An investigation into the whole fiasco, from Iran’s possible failures to uphold international laws to the U.S. sailors’ actions while in custody, is certainly warranted. But really, any investigation that doesn’t focus on the actions of the White House under President Obama these past years will prove second-rate. If Obama wasn’t such a weak leader, if Obama didn’t hold Iran as morally and politically equivalent to Israel, if Obama hadn’t insisted on an nuclear deal with Tehran that much of the rest of the world saw as a dangerous cave – those U.S. sailors never would have been put in the position of taking knees before representatives of the regime.

No U.S. sailor apology would have followed.

The weakness and ineffectiveness of Obama emboldened Iran to take these sailors captive. And now these sailors’ actions, whether in line with military code and the spirit of America or not – and the video, sadly, would seem to suggest “not”–are still only further evidence of the lacking respect the United States has experienced under its feckless commander-in-chief. It’s Obama who deserves the most scrutiny, and the harshest judgment.

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The weakness and ineffectiveness of Obama emboldened

Gross-Domestic-Product-GDP-Reuters

File photo: Shipping cranes and containers at a U.S. port representing exports and imports factored in overall gross domestic product, or GDP. (Photo: REUTERS)

The Labor Department reported on Thursday that import prices fell 1.2% in December, slightly less than the decline Wall Street expected. Economists had forecast import prices declining 1.4% after a previously reported 0.4 percent fall in November. Export prices dropped 1.1%, a steeper decline than the 0.5% forecast.

In 16 of the last 18 months, import prices have fallen and, for all of 2015, import prices fell 8.2%. That’s the largest calendar-year drop since 2008 and has been aided by a U.S. strong dollar (USDUSD) and declining oil prices that are keeping imported inflation subdued, leaving inflation well below the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. The dollar’s 21.7 percent appreciation against the currencies of the United States’ main trading partners over the last 20 months has made imported goods cheaper.

In November, import prices on petroleum tanked 10%, which is also the biggest fall recorded since August. Petroleum slid by 3.6% in November, while import prices excluding petroleum fell 0.4% after falling 0.3% in November.

But, though it was frequently cited by Fed policy-makers on the Federal Open Markets Committee as a requisite for raising rates, the U.S. central bank raised its benchmark overnight interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point last month to between 0.25 and 0.50%.

It was the first rate hike in nearly a decade since the financial crisis. Still, analysts say weak inflation coupled with slowing domestic and global growth could cause the Fed to be at least cautious about increasing rates at its March policy meeting, despite what appears on the surface to be a tightening labor market.

The Labor Department reported on Thursday that

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