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Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff told business leaders that the depreciation of the dollar impairs emerging countries’ growth following a 2012 meeting with President Barack Obama at the White House. (Photo: SHFWire/Robin Siteneski)

I remember feeling like an outlier a few years ago when so many people were waxing rhapsodic about a glowing economic outlook for Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. These so-called BRICS nations were enjoying some decent growth at the time, but I was not optimistic about their long-run prospects because they all suffered from too much statism according to the rankings from Economic Freedom of the World.

Well, the long run has arrived, at least to some degree. All of these nations have hit some serious speed bumps.

I’ve previously written about the economic challenges now being faced by China and South Africa. Today, let’s focus on Brazil.

Here’s some very dismal but accurate analysis from an article in this week’sEconomist (h/t: Tyler Cowen).

By the end of 2016 Brazil’s economy may be 8% smaller than it was in the first quarter of 2014, when it last saw growth; GDP per person could be down by a fifth since its peak in 2010, which is not as bad as the situation in Greece, but not far off. Two ratings agencies have demoted Brazilian debt to junk status. Joaquim Levy, who was appointed as finance minister last January with a mandate to cut the deficit, quit in December. Any country where it is hard to tell the difference between the inflation rate—which has edged into double digits—and the president’s approval rating—currently 12%, having dipped into single figures—has serious problems.

And why is Brazil’s economy is so much trouble?

Two words: Excessive government.

…the federal constitution of 1988… This 70,000-word doorstop of a document crams in as many social, political and economic rights as its drafters could dream up, some of them highly specific: a 44-hour working week; a retirement age of 65 for men and 60 for women. The “purchasing power” of benefits “shall be preserved”, it proclaims, creating a powerful ratchet on public spending. Since the constitution’s enactment, federal outlays have nearly doubled to 18% of GDP; total public spending is over 40%. Some 90% of the federal budget is ring-fenced either by the constitution or by legislation. Constitutionally protected pensions alone now swallow 11.6% of GDP, a higher proportion than in Japan, whose citizens are a great deal older. …government expenditure as a share of output rose in 2015. …Taxes already consume 36% of GDP, up from a quarter in 1991.

Ugh, what a grim set of numbers. Moreover, the pension system is terrible, as we discussed a few months ago.

And here’s some additional analysis from last week’s issue, which also highlights the negative impact of too much government.

Brazil faces political and economic disaster. …Ms Rousseff and her left-wing Workers’ Party (PT) have made a bad situation much worse. During her first term, in 2011-14, she spent extravagantly and unwisely on higher pensions.. The minimum benefit is the same as the minimum wage, which has risen by nearly 90% in real terms over the past decade. Women typically retire when they are 50 and men stop work at 55, nearly a decade earlier than the average in rich countries… A typical manufacturing firm spends 2,600 hours a year complying with the country’s ungainly tax code; the Latin American average is 356. Labour laws modelled on those of Mussolini make it expensive for firms to fire even incompetent employees. ….Because it is so hard to reform, Brazil’s public sector rivals European welfare states for size but emerging ones for inefficiency. Long a drain on economic vitality, Brazil’s overbearing state is now a chief cause of the fiscal crisis.

All this sounds very grim, but I’m going to argue that it’s even worse than it sounds.

In part, the problems are similar to what is found in so many nations facing economic challenges.

First, government is growing faster than the private sector. The fact that government spending now consumes twice as much of the economy’s output today as it did back in 1988 means that politicians have been repeatedly (and vigorously!) violating my Golden Rule.

golden-rule

Second, there’s too much government intervention. A nation that models any of its policies on Mussolini-style fascism obviously is making a big mistake since the net result is an economy burdened by corrupt cronyism (sadly, a common problem in Latin America).

But there’s another reason to be down on Brazil, and it is far more discouraging.

Third, the social capital of the country has been eroded. Simply stated, there are too many people–as data from the 2014 election reveal–who view government as a vehicle for personal (and unearned) enrichment.

And when this third problem develops, it’s all but certain that a nation is doomed. After all, many nations have reversed bad fiscal policy. And many nations have reduced government intervention. But fixing the culture of a people is like putting toothpaste back in a tube.

Indeed, I’m going to augment my list of pithy adages. In addition to Mitchell’s Golden Rule and Mitchell’s Law, we not have Mitchell’s Theorem of Societal Collapse.

Social-Collapse-Theorem

 

Like my other adages, I’m not pretending there’s any original insight. In this case, I’ve simply come up with a different way of saying the line attributed (erroneously, from what I can tell) to either Benjamin Franklin or Alexis de Tocqueville: “A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. ”

P.S. I’m worried about the degree to which America has traveled down the path toward societal decay, but I don’t think we’ve yet reached a tipping point.

P.P.S. While I’m not a fan of Brazilian economic policy, I actually defended that nation when Hillary Clinton applauded Brazil for being more statist than it actually is.

P.P.P.S. Being less statist than Hillary is not exactly something to brag about, so I will note that Brazil deserves credit for moving in the right direction on gun rightsand also having some semi-honest left-wing politicians.

P.P.P.P.S. Let’s end, however, with some bad news. Recall from above that Brazil has a very statist constitution. Well, it’s always possible to make a bad thing even worse. And that’s what some Brazilian politicians are trying to do with a proposal to have government somehow create a “right to happiness.”

Brazil and its economy are now suffering

United-Nations-HQ

UN headquarters in New York. (Photo: KnowsPhotos/Flickr)

There are many reasons why I’m not a big fan of the United Nations. Like other international bureaucracies, it supports statist policies (higher taxes, gun controlregulation, etc) that hinder economic development and limit human liberty by increasing the burden of government

Some people tell me that I shouldn’t be too critical because the U.N. also helps poor people with foreign aid. Indeed, the U.N. has a very active project to encourage rich nations to contribute 0.7 percent of their economic output to developing nations.

I generally respond to these–in some cases–well-meaning folks by explaining that there’s a big difference between good intentions and good results. If you examine the evidence, it turns out that redistribution from rich nations to poor nations is just as counterproductive as redistribution within a society.

An article in The Economist succinctly summarizes the issue. It starts with the rationale for foreign aid.

After the second world war, a new “development economics” came to dominate policymaking…, often at the urging of international institutions such as the World Bank. It argued that poor countries were victims of a vicious circle of poverty… The answer? Rich countries should provide the capital, in the form of foreign aid. …poor-country governments should plan their economies and…competition should be restricted through monopoly rights and barriers to foreign trade.

It then describes the revolutionary thinking of the late Peter Thomas Bauer, a Hungarian-born British economist who said the developing world needed economic freedom rather than handouts.

Lord Bauer set out alternative theories that, from the 1950s to the 1970s, were heresy. …Opportunities for private profit, not government plans, held the key to development. Governments had the limited though crucial role of protecting property rights, enforcing contracts, treating everybody equally before the law, minimising inflation and keeping taxes low.

Moreover, Bauer explained that foreign aid generally had a negative effect because it put resources in the hands of government, thus leveraging more statism. Which is the last thing these nations needed.

Aid politicised economies, directing money into the hands of governments rather than towards profitable business. Interest groups then fought to control this money rather than engage in productive activity. Aid increased the patronage and power of the recipient governments, which often pursued policies that stifled entrepreneurship and market forces. Indeed, aid had proved “an excellent method for transferring money from poor people in rich countries to rich people in poor countries.”

Writing for the U.K.-based Spectator, Daron Acemoglu and James Robinson explain that foreign aid has a very poor track record.

The idea that large donations can remedy poverty has dominated the theory of economic development — and the thinking in many international aid agencies and governments — since the 1950s. And how have the results been? Not so good, actually. Millions have moved out of abject poverty around the world over the past six decades, but that has had little to do with foreign aid. Rather, it is due to economic growth in countries in Asia which received little aid.

Meanwhile, the nations getting the most handouts have remained mired in poverty.

In the meantime, more than a quarter of the countries in sub-Saharan Africa are poorer now than in 1960 — with no sign that foreign aid, however substantive, will end poverty there. …huge aid flows appear to have done little to change the development trajectories of poor countries… Why? …economic institutions that systematically block the incentives and opportunities of poor people to make things better for themselves, their neighbours and their country. …The problem is that their aspirations are blocked today…by extractive institutions. The poor don’t pull themselves out of poverty, because the basic ability to do so is denied them.

What exactly are “extractive institutions”?

At the top of the list would be bad government policy, which creates a system in which politicians, bureaucrats, and insiders get unearned wealth via corruption and cronyism.

The authors give some powerful examples.

To understand Syria’s enduring poverty, you could do worse than start with the richest man in Syria, Rami Makhlouf. He is the cousin of President Bashar al-Assad and controls a series of government-created monopolies. He is an example of what are known in Syria as ‘abna al-sulta’, ‘sons of power’. To understand Angola’s endemic poverty, consider its richest woman, Isabel dos Santos, billionaire daughter of the long-serving president. …every major Angolan investment held by dos Santos stems either from taking a chunk of a company that wants to do business in the country or from a stroke of the president’s pen that cut her into the action.

I’d also include the wealthy Venezuelans who have used socialism as a vehicle to enrich themselves while impoverishing ordinary people.

To be sure, we have examples of insider favoritism and undeserved wealth in rich nations, but it’s a matter of degree. Cronyism is an undesirable feature of our economy, but it’s a defining feature of nations in the developing world.

So what does all this mean?

Acemoglu and Robinson basically reach the same conclusion as Lord Bauer.

When aid is given to governments that preside over extractive institutions, it can be at best irrelevant, at worst downright counter-productive. …Many kleptocratic dictators such as Congo’s Mobutu Sese Seko have been propped up by foreign aid.

Now let’s shift from looking at nations where failure has been subsidized by foreign aid and instead consider the success stories of economic development. Are there any lessons we can learn?

Well, if you look at the ranking from Economic Freedom of the World, you’ll see that the formerly poor East Asian jurisdictions that are now rich also have something else in common. They rank very high or somewhat high for economic freedom

In other words, there is a recipe for growth and prosperity. Nations that restrain the size of government and allow markets to flourish enjoy growth.

Which is exactly the message of this video.

[brid video=”23884″ player=”2077″ title=”Free Markets and Small Government Produce Prosperity”]

By the way, you don’t need perfection to get climb out of poverty. China still doesn’t rank very high in Economic Freedom of the World, but it has improved its position over the past few decades and that has helped lift hundreds of millions of people out of abject poverty. Same with India.

Yes, both nations are capable of much stronger growth with further improvements in policy, but it’s nonetheless good news that there’s been considerable improvement.

Let’s address one more issue that arises in the debate about foreign aid.

Professor Noah Smith of Stony Brook University, in a column for Bloomberg, debunks the myth that poverty in the developing world is a legacy of colonialism.

…the stolen-wealth theory is wrong. Oh, it’s absolutely true that colonial powers stole natural resources from the lands they conquered. …the stolen-wealth theory is wrong…because the theory doesn’t explain the global distribution of income today. …The easiest way to see this is to observe all the rich countries that never had the chance to plunder colonies. Germany, Italy, Sweden, Denmark and Japan had colonial empires for only the very briefest of moments, and their greatest eras of development came before and after those colonial episodes. Switzerland, Finland, and Austria never had colonies. And South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore and Hong Kong were themselves colonies of other powers. Yet today they are very rich. They did it not by theft, but by working hard, being creative, and having good institutions.

Amen. And notice that he also mentions the tiger economies of East Asia.

P.S. Given what I wrote the other day about the statist proclivities of the OECD, here’s an item that shouldn’t surprise anyone.

Even though South Africa already has an excessive burden of government, the Paris-based bureaucracy wants that nation to impose even higher taxes to fund even bigger government.

I’m not joking. The OECD just put out a document entitled, “How can South Africa’s tax system meet revenue raising challenges?” and here are some blurbs from the abstract.

…considerable revenues will be needed in the years ahead to expand social spending and infrastructure in order to raise growth and well-being. …there is some scope to raise further revenue, particularly through broadening the base of these taxes further. …An important additional source of revenue is environmentally related taxes.

Yup, you read correctly. The bureaucrats at the OECD want people to believe that South Africa’s main challenge is that government isn’t big enough. Heck, they actually want readers to believe that a more bloated public sector will “raise growth and well-being”.

Huh, bigger government is associated with more growth?!? I guess that’s why Singapore is so poor and Cuba is so rich.

What’s especially remarkable about the OECD’s anti-empirical approach is that fiscal policy is where South Africa get its lowest score in Economic Freedom of the World. It’s almost as if the tax-loving bureaucrats at the OECD are trying to keep that country from prospering.

And we’re subsidizing this nonsense to the tune of about $100 million per year.

The United Nations (UN) Millennium Project is

federal reserve reuters

Federal Reserve (Photo: Reuters)

What were the most noteworthy, or best and worst events from 2015?

Regarding bad news, there’s unfortunately a lot of competition. But if I’m forced to pick the very worst developments, here’s my list.

Resuscitation of the Export-Import Bank – I did a premature victory dance last year when I celebrated the expiration of the Export-Import Bank’s authority.  I should have known that corrupt cronyism was hard to extinguish. Sure enough, Republicans and Democrats conspired to re-authorize the Ex-Im Bank and transfer wealth from ordinary Americans to politically connected corporations.

Expansion of IMF authority – I also did a premature victory dance in 2014when I lauded the fact that Congress did not approve increased bailout authority for the International Monetary Fund. Sadly, as part of the year-end spending agreement, Congress agreed to expand the IMF’s authority so it could continue to push for higher taxes around the world.

Busting the spending caps (again) – When I wrote last August that maintaining the spending caps was a key test of GOP integrity, I should have known that they would get a failing grade. Sure enough, Republicans deliberately fumbled the ball at the goal line and agreed to higher spending.Again.

Supreme Court ignores law to bail out Obamacare (again) – Back in 2012, the Supreme Court had a chance to rule whether Obamacare was an impermissible expansion of the power of the federal government. In a truly odious decision, Chief Justice John Roberts ignored theConstitution’s limits on federal powersand decided we could be coerced to buy health insurance. Last year, he did it again, this time by bailing out a key part of Obamacare by deciding to arbitrarily ignore the wording of the law.

Business-as-usual transportation bill – The desire of Congress to fund pork-barrel transportation projects is at least somewhat constrained by the amount of revenue generated by the gas tax. There was an opportunity for reform in 2015 because proposed spending was much higher than the trajectory of gas tax revenue, but rather than even engage in a discussion ofgood policy options, politicians merely bickered over what combination of tax hikes and budget gimmicks they could put together to keep the pork projects flowing.

Creeping support on the right for the value-added tax – When I wrote early last year that the 2016 election might create an opportunity for tax reform, I was being hopeful that we might get something close to a simple and fair flat tax. Yet probably the biggest news so far in this election cycle is that a couple of candidates who presumably favor small government – Rand Paul and Ted Cruz – have proposed to impose a value-added tax without fully repealing the income tax.

There’s very little good news to celebrate. Here’s my tragically sparse list, and you’ll notice that my list of victories is heavy on style and light on substance. But let’s take what we can get.

Semi-decent Republican budgets – The budget resolution produced by Congress technically doesn’t embrace specific policies, but the it’s nonetheless noteworthy that the House and Senate approved numbers that – at least conceptually – are based on genuine Medicaid and Medicare reform.

Support for spending caps– Notwithstanding the fact that GOP politicians won’t even abide by the limited spending caps that already exist, I’m somewhat encouraged by the growing consensus for comprehensive spending caps akin to theones in place in Switzerland and Hong Kong. Heck, even international bureaucracies now agree spending caps are the only effective fiscal rule.

Good election results from the Wolverine State – It was great to see Michigan voters reject a gas tax increase that was supported by the political elite.

More companies escaping the IRS – I heartily applaud when companies figure out how to re-domicile in jurisdictions with better tax law to escape America’s high corporate tax rate and self-destructive worldwide tax system. And I’m glad these “inversions” continue to take place even though theObama Administration is trying to stop them.

A glimmer of reality at the New York Times – I realize I’m scraping the bottom of the barrel in my search for good news, but the fact that the New York Times published a column acknowledging that feminist economic policies backfire against women hopefully is a sign that sensible thinking is possible in the establishment media.

Gun control flopping – It’s great to see that the left has totally failed in its effort to undermine 2nd Amendment rights.

Limits on asset forfeiture – The final bit of good news from 2015 was the just-before-Christmas announcement by the Obama Administration that the odious practice of asset forfeiture would be modestly curtailed.

I would offer predictions for 2016, but since my big prediction from last year that we would have gridlock was sadly inaccurate, I think I’ll avoid making a fool of myself this year.

What were the most noteworthy, or best

[brid video=”23829″ player=”2077″ title=”Donald Trump rings in 2016 with Fox News”]

Republican presidential frontrunner Donald Trump and his family appeared on FOX News’ New Years Eve coverage right before the ball dropped in Times Square. FOX News’ Eric Bolling and Kimberly Guilfoyle interviewed the candidate from the Knickerbocker Hotel in New York, NY while Trump and his family celebrated the new year at his Mar-A-Lago estate in Palm Beach, Florida.

Trump is far and away the national frontrunner on the PPD national Republican nomination aggregate average, as well as in New Hampshire and South Carolina. In Iowa, he is tied or slightly trails Texas Sen. Ted Cruz.

Republican presidential frontrunner Donald Trump and his

Gabrielle's Angel Foundation Hosts Angel Ball 2014 - Arrivals

Singer Natalie Cole attends her 60th Birthday Celebration at TAO on February 4, 2010 in New York City. (Photo by Larry Busacca/Getty Images

Singer Natalie Cole, the daughter of jazz legend Nat “King” Cole, died at the age of 65 Thursday night, publicist Maureen O’Connor confirms. However, O’Connor gave no details about how or where the singer died.

Cole had battled drug problems and hepatitis that forced her to undergo a kidney transplant in May 2009.

Cole’s 1991 album, “Unforgettable … With Love,” sold some 14 million copies and won six Grammys. It featured reworked versions of some of her father’s best-known songs.

On the title cut, “Unforgettable,” she sang along with her father’s taped version to create a memorable duet.

Nat “King” Cole died of lung cancer in 1965.

Singer Natalie Cole, the daughter of jazz

Wayne-Rogers

Wayne Rogers was best known for his role as Trapper John McIntyre in M*A*S*H. (Photo: AP)

Wayne Rogers, best known for his role as Trapper John McIntyre in M*A*S*H*, died Thursday in Los Angeles of complications from pneumonia at age 82. Longtime publicist and friend Rona Menashe confirmed the tragic news to The Associated Press.

Alongside Alan Alda who played Hawkeye Pierce, the two troublemaking surgeons drank martinis and entertained America every week in the 1970s. Rogers’ Trapper John was one of the most beloved characters– and half of one of the most beloved duos–in TV history, even though the character was replaced after the first three of the show’s 11 seasons on CBS.

McIntyre was on “M.A.S.H.” from 1972 to 1975, becoming the first of what would be several of the original cast members to leave the very popular show that ran until 1983. He was initially considered for Alda’s character, but he preferred Trapper’s sunnier disposition to Hawkeye’s darkly acerbic personality, which would dominate the final episode of the series.

The latter episodes in the series shifted to increasingly focus on Hawkeye’s character played by Alda, which played a role in Rogers’ departure.

Rogers was an Alabama native and Princeton University graduate, and appeared in westerns like “Law of the Plainsman” and “Stagecoach West” earlier in his career. He had a bit part in the 1967 film “Cool Hand Luke” with Paul Newman. He returned to TV in the years after “M.A.S.H.” for a recurring role in the early 1990s on “Murder, She Wrote.”

But Rogers would move beyond acting to see serious success later in life as a money manager and investor. In 1988 and 1990, he appeared as an expert witness before the House Judiciary Committee to speak in favor of maintaining the Glass-Steagall banking laws of the 1930s and, in recent years, he was a regular panelist on the Fox News stock investment show “Cashin’ In.”

Rogers is survived by his wife Amy, two children, Bill and Laura, and four grandchildren.

Wayne Rogers, best known for his role

NYSE-Markets-Reuters

Traders on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) with Barclays, etc. (Photo: Reuters)

The major market averages closed the books on 2015 on Thursday as one that is ending the worst year in seven years, since Obama took office and the Federal Reserve kept interest rates a near-zero.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended the year down 2.3% to close at 17425. The S&P 500 ended 2015 down 0.72% at 2043, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite closed the year up 5.7% to 5007. The energy sector was the biggest loser of the 10 S&P 500 sectors, shedding more than 23% over the last year.

The major market averages closed the books

Ben-Carson-Press-Conference

Dr. Ben Carson, a leading 2016 Republican presidential candidate, during a press conference to refute a story claiming he admitted to “fabricating” a claim he was offered a scholarship to West Point by Vietnam Gen. Westmoreland on Friday Nov. 6, 2015 in Palm Beach Gardens, Florida. (Photo: AP)

Dr. Ben Carson, former children’s neurosurgeon and 2016 GOP candidate, lost his campaign manager, Barry Bennett, and communications director, Doug Watts. Amid open revelations of a shakeup “sometime before Iowa,” as the candidate put it, the campaign confirmed both have resigned.

“Barry Bennett and I have resigned from the Carson campaign effective immediately,” Watts said. “We respect the candidate and we have enjoyed helping him go from far back in the field to top-tier status.”

Indeed the campaign overall is happening just a month away from the Iowa caucus, in which Dr. Carson previously claimed frontrunner status. However, he has since fallen to number four behind Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, frontrunner Donald Trump and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio in the PPD average. Still, the campaign also recently announced that they had brought in $23 million in donations in the fourth quarter, surpassing all other Republicans, including Texas Sen. Ted Cruz who had brought in $20 million.

“Having just announced raising $23m(illion) for the 4th Q(uarter), more than any other Republican candidate, and passing 1 million contributions and over 600 K unique donors since March, we are proud of our efforts for Dr. Carson and we wish him and his campaign the best of luck,” Watts said.

Dr. Ben Carson, former children's neurosurgeon and

What was the best news of the year? That’s a difficult question to answer if you believe in small government and you work in Washington. We certainly didn’t get the things on my Christmas list, like genuine entitlement reform and fundamental tax reform.

Santa also forget to give me much-needed spending caps, like they have in Switzerland and Hong Kong.

But there is reason for hope. The political elite may be a bunch of self-serving statists, but ordinary citizens still have a core belief in liberty.

The folks at Gallup, for instance, asked Americans about the biggest threat to America’s future. As you can see, they wisely and astutely named big government. By an overwhelming margin.

In another poll, CNN reports that Americans generally are not happy with Washington.

Heading into the final year of Barack Obama’s presidency, the American public…expresses broad dissatisfaction with government and anger about the way things are going in the nation generally. According to a new CNN/ORC Poll, 75% of Americans say they are dissatisfied with the way the nation is being governed, and 69% are at least somewhat angry with the way things are going in the U.S., both metrics about as negative as they were in fall 2014.

Though I suppose I shouldn’t be too encouraged by this data. After all, what if they’re dissatisfied because government isn’t giving them enough goodies?

But I’m reasonably hopeful that the unhappiness is for the right reasons.

For example, here’s some encouraging polling data from Pew that was shared by James Pethokoukis of the American Enterprise Institute. Strong support for free enterprise as a generic principle doesn’t automatically translate into support for free markets on every issue, of course, but I’m glad people in the United States at least have good instincts (unlike the misguided citizens of Argentina).

By the way, I can’t help grousing about the way the folks at Pew presented this data. Notice how the subheading starts with “despite the global financial crisis,” which implies that it was the fault of free markets.

At the risk of repeating myself for the umpteenth time, it was bad monetary policy and corrupt subsidies from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac that deserve the lion’s share of the blame for that mess.

Anyhow, back to polling data. While I’m encouraged by some of the polling data above, I’m not under any illusion that people always have the right instincts. Or that they even have consistent views.

Here’s some polling data that was put together for the Legatum Institute.

The bad news is that a lot of people believe in the false left-wing narrative that the economy is a fixed pie and the rich get richer at the expense of the poor. I addressed that issue a few days ago, but the most compelling evidence is in these videos from Learn Liberty, Marginal Revolution, and the Fund for American Studies.

On the other hand, the good news is that perhaps people already have watched these videos. That because they also strongly believe that free enterprise is the best way of improving life for the poor.

P.S. Let’s end 2015 with some Donald Trump humor. I haven’t written much about the Donald, other than to point out that he has a reasonably good tax plan (though perhaps not a serious one).

But he does generate amusement value.

Here’s some anti-Trump humor, sort of similar to the how-the-world-sees-libertarians joke I’ve previously shared.

And here’s some pro-Trump humor (depending on your perspective.

It arrived in my inbox with the heading: “Trump and his national security team arriving in Saudi Arabia.”

Trump-National-Security-Team

Donald Trump and his national security team arrive in Saudi Arabia. (Yes, that’s a joke!)

 

He’s not my cup of tea, but you have to give Trump credit for dominating the election. Whether he’s making dumb statements or smart statements, he knows how to work the media.

For what it’s worth, my preferred candidate isn’t available this election, though the fact that he wins this poll (and also this poll) is yet another sign that the American people still have very sensible instincts.

P.P.S. Here are some great videos of that candidate in action. And here’s one more if you those weren’t enough.

What was the best news of the

All Regional, National Manufacturing Activity in Contraction

manufacturing-autoworker

Surveys gauging growth or contraction in Midwest manufacturing. (REUTERS)

The Chicago Business Barometer, the Institute for Supply Management-Chicago’s gauge of Midwest manufacturing activity contracted further to 42.9 in December, down from 48.7 the month prior. Wall Street expected a slight rise to 49.8.

“The steepness of the decline in the Barometer in recent months ends a particularly volatile year, which has seen orders and output move in and out of contraction,” Chief Economist of MNI Indicators Philip Uglow said. “It lends weight to the Fed’s gradual approach to tightening, with the flexibility to change direction if needed.”

The reading is the lowest since July 2009. Readings above 50 point to expansion, while those below indicate contraction. According to PPD reporting and projections, all regional and national manufacturing activity has slipped into contraction in what is a terrible sign for the sector in the year ahead.

“The only positive this month came from a special question with 55.1% of the panel expecting demand to be stronger in 2016 compared with 14.3% who thought it would be lower,” the report said. “30.6% of respondents thought demand would be unchanged.”

Translated by PPD: The ISM needed to make up a new question to find a silver lining in somewhere in the indisputably disappointing data to close out the year.

The Chicago Business Barometer, the Institute for

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