The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) rose 3 points to 71 in October, the highest level for builder confidence since February 2018. Forecasts ranged from a low of 66 to a high of 69, with the consensus 68.
The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI)
Last week, President Donald J. Trump and Vice Premier Liu He announced a set of agreements for Phase 1 of the U.S.-China trade deal. Phase 2 of the negotiations will began immediately.
“My deal with China is that they will immediately start buying very large quantities of our Agricultural Product, not wait until the deal is signed over the next 3 or 4 weeks,” the president tweeted. “THEY HAVE ALREADY STARTED!”
Phase 1 of the U.S.-China trade deal covers a number of items, including currency manipulation. But it was a big boon to the U.S. agricultural industry.
U.S. farmers in the Midwest have been among those most exposed to the president’s trade dispute with China, something his political opponents had hoped to exploit in 2020. That’s less likely after this announcement.
The Chinese agreed to increase agricultural purchases to between $40 and $50 billion over the next two years. That’s more than three times the highest amount the communist rival has ever purchased.
Phase 1 of the U.S.-China trade deal does address some elements of intellectual property, though getting a firm commitment on theft has always been a sticking point. It was widely seen as a greater challenge than even currency manipulation.
The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC), the main regulator of the securities industry in the communist country, stated last week that U. S. financial companies on the mainland will no longer be required to operate jointly as of January 1, 2020.
“Clearly if you are not required to be in a joint venture with a Chinese Company — a.k.a. the Chinese government — it becomes mush more difficult for China to steal your intellectual property,” noted Tim Anderson, an analyst at TJM Investments at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). “This is a potential workaround to prevent forced technology transfers.”
As the president tweeted, increases in tariffs scheduled to go into effect on October 15 have been canceled, a win for U.S. farmers and consumers. They will remain at 25%, the level announced in May 2019.
However, as U.S. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin noted during the press conference, tariff hikes scheduled for December 15 remain for leverage during Phase 2. The Trump Administration believes the U.S. economy can sustain tariffs at the current level, while the Chinese cannot.
There is in fact evidence to back up that assessment.
A study finds China is taking the brunt of these “strategically levied” tariffs, even at 25%. Researchers at EconPol Europe — a cooperating pool of analysts from the European Union (EU) — found firms in China take 20.5% of the total 25% tariff burden. By contrast, U.S. consumer prices on all affected Chinese products represent on average 4.5%.
“In this analysis we show that, contrary to public opinion, the greatest share of the tariff burden falls not on American consumers or firms, but on Chinese exporters,” researcher authors Benedikt Zoller-Rydzek and Gabriel Felbermayr stated.
“The U.S. government has strategically levied import duties on goods with high import elasticities, which transfers a great share of the tariff burden on to Chinese exporters.”
Negotiations for Phase 2 of U.S.-China Trade
The Survey of Consumers preliminary reading on consumer sentiment for October rose to 96.0, a far stronger-than-expected rebound driven by historic levels of expected income gains.
Forecasts ranged from a low of 90.0 to a high of 93.7. The consensus forecast was only 92.0 for October.
“Sentiment rebounded in early October as consumers anticipated larger income gains and lower inflation during the year ahead,” Richard Curtain, chief economist for the Survey of Consumers, said.
Expected change in real income — which is the percentage expecting an increase minus the percentage expecting a decrease — rose to 99 in October, exceeding the 98 reading in September 1998.
“As a result, real income expectations rose to their most favorable level in two decades (see chart above),” Mr. Curtain added. “Stronger finances and lower interest rates helped to modestly bolster buying plans.”
| Indicator | Oct | Sep | Oct | M-M | Y-Y |
| 2019 | 2019 | 2018 | ∆ | ∆ | |
| Index of Consumer Sentiment | 96.0 | 93.2 | 98.6 | +3.0% | -2.6% |
| Current Economic Conditions | 113.4 | 108.5 | 113.1 | +4.5% | +0.3% |
| Index of Consumer Expectations | 84.8 | 83.4 | 89.3 | +1.7% | -5.0% |
Though trade uncertainties remain, the percentage of those who cited it as a negative fell to 29%, down from 36%.
Worth noting, the impeachment inquiry has not yet had a significant negative impact; it was negatively cited by 3%, only about half as many as those who negatively cited the strike at General Motors Company (GM).
The Current Economic Conditions Index rose 4.9 points from 108.5 in September to 113.4. The Index of Consumer Expectations rose marginally from 83.4 to 84.8.
“Overall, the data indicate that consumption spending will be strong enough to offset weakness in business investment spending so as to keep the economy expanding into 2020,” Mr. Curtain said.
“Nonetheless, there are significant global and domestic uncertainties that will keep consumers cautious spenders, although the income gains among lower and middle income households will translate into higher spending among these households.”
The next data release for the final reading is scheduled for Friday, October 25, 2019 at 10am ET.
The Survey of Consumers preliminary reading on
Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, D-Ha., announcement in a video that she is “seriously considering” boycotting the debate on October 15 to draw attention to how the DNC and Corporate Media are rigging the primary.
I’m seriously considering boycotting the next debate on October 15,” she said in the video. “I am going to announce my decision within the next few days.”
The Democratic National Committee released updated qualification criteria for the fifth debate in November. The new criteria tightens donor requirements and outlines two polling pathways to qualify.
“The 2016 primary was rigged by the DNC and their partners in corporate media against Bernie Sanders,” Rep. Gabbard added. “In this 2020 election, the DNC and the corporate media are rigging the election again.”
The DNC refers to the contributions (donations) section of the qualifications criteria as the “Grassroots Fundraising Threshold”.
To qualify, candidates must have received donations from at least 165,000 unique donors and a minimum of 600 unique donors per state in at least 20 U.S. states, U.S. territories, or the District of Columbia by 11:59 P.M. on the date that marks seven days before the debate.
Candidates must also meet either the “Four-Poll Threshold” or the “Early State Polling Threshold” to qualify for the fifth debate. The DNC bills this as an easing of the rules, but didn’t address the criticism surrounding the list of approved pollsters.
Tulsi Gabbard announced in a video she
The U.S. Labor Department reported initial jobless claims fell 10,000 to a seasonally adjusted 210,000 for the week ending October 5, beating consensus. The 4-week average came in at 213,750 for the week, a gain of 1,000.
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate rose 0.1% to a still very low 1.2% for the week ending September 28. In early October, the insured unemployment rate fell to an all-time low 1.1%.
Not seasonally adjusted, the insured unemployment rate remained at 1.0%.
The advance number of insured unemployment during the week ending September 28 was 1,684,000, an increase of 29,000. The 4-week average was 1,665,000, an increase of 2,500.
No state was triggered “on” the Extended Benefits program during the week ending September 21, the Labor Department added.
The U.S. Labor Department reported initial jobless
Apple, Inc. (AAPL) removed the app HKmap.live, which allowed protestors to track police, days after approval and a day after criticism from state-run media. People’s Daily, the premier state-run media propaganda wing of the Communist Party, accused the tech giant of enabling protestors “to go on violent acts.”
“The map app is just the tip of the iceberg. In the Apple Music Store in Hong Kong, there was also a song advocating ‘Hong Kong independence,’” the editorial lamented. “Such a song was once removed from the music store and has resurrected.”
The company initially rejected the app, which shows users the location of authorities, safe zones and more. A statement from Apple echoed the Communist Party’s claim that it was being used to launch attacks.
“The app displays police locations and we have verified with the Hong Kong Cybersecurity and Technology Crime Bureau that the app has been used to target and ambush police, threaten public safety, and criminals have used it to victimize residents in areas where they know there is no law enforcement,” the company said. “This app violates our guidelines and local laws.”
A Twitter account claiming to be run by the developer of HKmap.live said on Twitter on Wednesday that they “disagree” with Apple’s decision and that the company’s statement was false.
“There is 0 evidence to support CSTCB’s accusation that HKmap App has been used to target and ambush police, threaten public safety, and criminals have used it to victimize residents in areas where they know there is no law enforcement,” the tweet stated.
“HKmap App never solicit, promote, or encourage criminal activity.”
Worth noting, Apple CEO Tim Cook has been a vocal critic of the trade dispute between the United States and China and has attended numerous Chinese government events. He advocates for a host of domestic liberal issues, such as open border immigration and gun control policies.
But he’s been silent on the Hong Kong protests, even as authorities have grown increasingly violent toward activists.
Apple, Inc. (AAPL) removed the app HKmap.live,
Joe Biden, the former 2020 Democratic frontrunner, called for the impeachment of President Donald J. Trump on Wednesday. The announcement represents a change in position for the former vice president and comes as his poll and fundraising numbers are in decline.
“Donald Trump has violated his oath of office, betrayed this nation, and committed impeachable acts,” the former vice president said. “To preserve our Constitution, our democracy, our basic integrity, he should be impeached.”
Mr. Biden was referring to the telephone conversation between President Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, which took place on July 25th, 2019. A “whistleblower” complaint filed by an anonymous source at the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) sparked what Democrats have referred to as an impeachment inquiry, though no such procedure has ever taken place in U.S. history.
Democrats announced the inquiry even before the president released the transcript of the telephone call. At the time, Mr. Biden refused to endorse impeachment and only called for an inquiry.
The evidence since released has not supported the impeachment narrative, which argues the president held up military aid to Ukraine in exchange for a quid pro quo to investigate potential corruption in the country connected to the Bidens.
The anonymous “whistleblower” has been outed as a registered Democrat who had “a professional relationship with one of the 2020 candidates” vying to challenge President Trump.
In a letter dated August 26, the Intelligence Community Inspector General Michael Atkinson wrote the whistleblower showed “some indicia of an arguable political bias … in favor of a rival political candidate.”
When asked about the claim by Republican members of the House Intelligence Committee last Friday, the inspector general revealed the clearly partisan connection.
Kurt Volker, the former U.S. envoy to Ukraine, “blew a massive hole” in the accusations against President Trump, telling the committee on six separation occasions that the military aid was never tied to a quid pro quo. He further testified the Ukrainians weren’t aware the aid was held up until a full month after the telephone conversation.
Nevertheless, Mr. Biden argued in his speech on Wednesday that impeachment isn’t only for committed crimes. It’s about preventing the president from serving in his elected office.
“We have to remember that impeachment isn’t only about what the president’s done,” Mr. Biden added. “It’s about the threat the president poses to the nation if allowed to remain in office.”
On Twitter, President Trump responded to Mr. Biden endorsing and calling for his impeachment.
“So pathetic to see Sleepy Joe Biden, who with his son, Hunter, and to the detriment of the American Taxpayer, has ripped off at least two countries for millions of dollars, calling for my impeachment – and I did nothing wrong,” he tweeted. “Joe’s Failing Campaign gave him no other choice!”
The president is referring questions surrounding the Bidens that are driving down his poll numbers, both in the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination and in a hypothetical general election. That being said, it’s worth noting Mr. Biden’s poll position was deteriorating prior to renewed scrutiny, a movement fueled by questions surrounding his competency.
As People’s Pundit Daily (PPD) previously reported, former General Prosecutor for Ukraine Viktor Shokin testified under oath in a sworn affidavit he was fired as a result of “direct and intense pressure from Joe Biden and the U.S. administration.”
Burisma Holdings — a corrupt gas company in Ukraine — hired Hunter Biden only weeks after his father was appointed to head up U.S Ukrainian relations. Hunter Biden has no experience in the industry, region, didn’t speak the language or have any relevant qualifications.
At the time of his firing, Mr. Shokin had plans to question Hunter Biden about millions of dollars in fees he and his partner, Devin Archer, collected from Burisma through Blue Star Strategies, a U.S. lobbying firm. He testified former Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko told him on numerous occasions Joe Biden wanted him to close the investigation.
When he refused, he was fired.
“The truth is that I was forced out because I was leading a wide-ranging corruption probe into Burisma Holdings (“Burisma”), a natural gas firm active in Ukraine, and Joe Biden’s Son, Hunter Biden, was a member of the Board Of Directors,” Mr. Shokin testified. “I assume Burisma, which was connected with gas extraction, had the support of the U.S. Vice-President Joe Biden because his son was on the Board of Directors.”
Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., on Tuesday invited Rudy Giuliani to testify “about corruption and other improprieties involving Ukraine.” The chairman specifically mentioned the firing of Mr. Shokin.
Mr. Biden now trails Senator Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., in 2020 Democratic presidential nomination polls. While he’s now several points behind in the horserace, self-reporting puts Mr. Biden in fourth place in the money race with roughly 6 days before the filing deadline.
The Biden Campaign raised only $15.2 million for the third quarter (Q3) 2019, putting him behind Bernie Sanders ($25.3 million), Senator Warren ($24.6 million), and Pete Buttigieg ($19.1 million).
Joe Biden called for the impeachment of
Senator Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., has edged out ahead of former frontrunner Joe Biden in 2020 Democratic presidential nomination polls. The rough 14-day average now shows Senator Warren leading Mr. Biden by 0.2%, 26.6% to 26.4%.
If no more polling is released within the next few days, her lead will inch higher to 0.5%.
Further, Senator Warren’s lead grows to more than 3 points without the presence of the Politico/Morning Consult Poll, a clear outlier still showing Mr. Biden ahead of the pack by 12 points.
Worth noting, the aforementioned poll has also been among the worst for President Donald J. Trump when gauging national approval ratings.
Senator Warren is now beating Mr. Biden in the money race, as well as the polls.
With roughly 6 days to go before the filing deadline, the Warren Campaign self-reported a fundraising haul of $24.6 million for the third quarter (Q3) 2019. Mr. Biden raised only $15.2 million.
In Q2 2019, the Biden Campaign raised roughly $22 million and spent roughly $11.1 million, giving his campaign a burn rate of 51%. He spent roughly $3.5 million on digital advertising, alone.
Senator Warren raised $16.2 million in Q1 and $19.2 million in Q2, giving her a combined burn rate of 45%. She spent $2.6 million last quarter on compensation for a staff of 303 and is widely known for being the most organized campaign in Iowa and other early states.
Senator Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., has edged out
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported job openings and labor turnover (JOLTS) were little changed in August, though slightly missed the consensus. The number of job openings (rounded) came in at 7.1 million on the last business day of August, down from 7.1 million in July.
Forecasters were looking for a low 7.100 million to a high of 7.200 million. The consensus forecast was 7.186 million, slightly higher than the reading.
Total hires ticked down to 5.8 million and separations were also little changed at 5.6 million. Within separations, the quits rate was largely unchanged at 2.3%, and the layoffs and discharges rate was unchanged at 1.2%.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)
U.S. Attorney John H. Durham has reported expanded his investigation into the origins of and potential wrongdoings in the Russia probe. In May, Attorney General William Barr assigned the U.S. Attorney in Connecticut
Fox News, citing multiple officials, reported the timeline has expanded from the genesis of the disproved “Russian Collusion” through the election and now has included a post-election timeline through the spring of 2017, up to when Robert Mueller was appointed Special Counsel by then-Acting Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein.
People’s Pundit Daily (PPD) has independently confirmed Mr. Durham has uncovered evidence of abuse to safeguards outlined in the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA).
“This is not someone who would ask for more resources if there was no ‘there, there,'” a department source told PPD when asked about the move by Mr. Durham. “This is a significant development.”
The Justice Department (DOJ) has also uncovered documents supporting the White House claim that Robert Mueller was in fact pursuing the job to replace fired former director James Comey at the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI).
Mr. Mueller testified under oath on July 24 that he did not seek the position during the meeting on May 16, 2017.
“My understanding was I was not applying for the job,” Mr. Mueller testified under oath. “I was asked to give my input on what it would take to do the job.”
Newly obtained emails also show Mr. Rosenstein and Mr. Mueller were secretly in contact with one another the days before, during and after the latter met with President Donald J. Trump.
“The boss and his staff do not know about our discussions,” Mr. Rosenstein wrote in an email to Mr. Mueller on May 12, 2017. (Document Page 57)
It’s unclear whether “the boss” was a reference to then-Attorney General Jeff Sessions, or President Trump, himself.
However, the emails indicate Mr. Mueller was appointed Special Counsel after the president refused to give him the job.
“I am with Mueller. He shares my view. Duty calls,” Mr. Rosenstein wrote to Mark Filip, an attorney at Kirkland & Ellis LLP on May 16, 2017. “Sometimes the moment chooses us.” (Document Page 54)
That email timestamped at 3:48 PM EST was sent the same day Mr. Mueller met with the president at the White House. The meeting between Mr. Mueller and President Trump — at which there were numerous witnesses — took place earlier in the day.
U.S. Attorney John H. Durham has reported
