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News

Chairman Graham: “Given the House of Representatives’ Behavior,” It Is Time for the Senate to Act

Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., invited Rudy Giuliani to testify “about corruption and other improprieties involving Ukraine.” The chairman specifically mentioned the firing of former General Prosecutor for the Republic of Ukraine, Viktor Shokin.

“Have heard on numerous occasions disturbing allegations by @RudyGiuliani about corruption in Ukraine and the many improprieties surrounding the firing of former Prosecutor General Viktor Shokin,” the chairman tweeted.

“Given the House of Representatives’ behavior, it is time for the Senate to inquire about corruption and other improprieties involving Ukraine,” he added in a thread.

“Therefore I will offer to Mr. Giuliani the opportunity to come before the Senate Judiciary Committee to inform the committee of his concerns.”

As People’s Pundit Daily (PPD) previously reported, Mr. Shokin testified under oath in a sworn affidavit he was fired as a result of “direct and intense pressure from Joe Biden and the U.S. administration.”

Mr. Shokin was appointed General Prosecutor of Ukraine by former President Petro Poroshenko, and received a 318-vote consent of the Rada (Ukraine Parliament), a vote considered a constitutional authority. He served from February 10, 2015 to April 3, 2016.

He was fired at the behest of the U.S. administration, specifically former Vice President Biden, who had been appointed by former President Barack Obama to oversee U.S.-Ukrainian relations.

In December 2015, The New York Times reported Burisma Holdings — a corrupt gas company in Ukraine — had hired Hunter Biden only weeks after his father was appointed to head up U.S Ukrainian relations. Hunter Biden has no relevant qualifications.

“The truth is that I was forced out because I was leading a wide-ranging corruption probe into Burisma Holdings (“Burisma”), a natural gas firm active in Ukraine, and Joe Biden’s Son, Hunter Biden, was a member of the Board Of Directors,” Mr. Shokin testified. “I assume Burisma, which was connected with gas extraction, had the support of the U.S. Vice-President Joe Biden because his son was on the Board of Directors.”

At the time of his firing, Mr. Shokin had plans to question Hunter Biden about $3 million in fees that he and his partner, Devin Archer, collected from Burisma through Blue Star Strategies, a U.S. lobbying firm.

Mr. Biden discussed the firing of Mr. Shokin — in fact, he bragged about it — at an event held by the Council on Foreign Relations on January 23, 2019.

Mr. Giuliana, the president’s personal attorney, claims to have uncovered the Bidens’ dealings in Ukraine while investigating the genesis of the now-debunked Russia Collusion narrative.

Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Lindsey Graham, R-S.C.,

Economy

Index for Final Demand +1.4% Year-Over-Year

The Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand in September showed weakness across the board, not just in energy and energy-related items.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported final demand was lower by 0.3%, which lowered the 12-month year-over-year from +1.8% initially reported for August last month.

On a year-over-year basis, the index for final demand was up 1.4%, versus up 1.8% in August, and the index for final demand less food and energy was up 2.0%, versus 2.3% in August.

The index for final demand services decreased 0.2%, with nearly half of that decline owed to the index for machinery and vehicle wholesaling, which fell 2.7%. The index for final demand goods was down 0.4% due primarily to a 2.5% decline in prices for final demand energy.

The index for processed goods for intermediate demand decreased 0.4%. The index for unprocessed goods for intermediate demand declined 1.4%.

The Producer Price Index (PPI) for final

Economy

Small Business Optimism Index Shows “No Sign of a Recession”

The Small Business Optimism Index eased but remained at a historically high level in September, down a slight 1.3 points to 101.8. That reading falls within the top 20% of all readings in the 46-year history of the index.

The survey shows no sign of a recession and indicated continued job creation, capital spending, and inventory investment, all consistent with solid, but slower growth. The Uncertainty Index rose 2 points, revisiting high levels of concern.

“As small business owners continue to invest, expand, and try to hire, they’re doing so with less gusto than they did earlier in the year, thanks to the mixed signals they’re receiving from policymakers and politicians,” said NFIB President and CEO Juanita D. Duggan. “All indications are that owners are eager to do more, but they’re uncertain about what the future holds and can’t find workers to fill the jobs they have open.”

The Uncertainty Index rose 6 points over the past three months, while the negative impact of tariffs were reported by 30%. As a result of uncertainty, more firms are reluctant to make major spending commitments (Cap-Ex).

“As more owners become unsure, caution will seep into business decisions. In addition to tariff concerns, the Fed’s decision to cut interest rates raised uncertainty,” said NFIB Chief Economist William Dunkelberg. “Perhaps the country will indeed talk itself into a recession, but not anytime soon.”

“The persistence of unfilled job openings and reports of a deficiency of job applicants indicate that there is still substantial economic optimism about the economy on Main Street.”

Fifty-seven percent (57%) of owners reported capital outlays, down 2 points from August. Twenty-seven percent (27%) plan capital outlays in the next six months, down 1 point.

However, those cap-ex plans were strong in manufacturing (34%), professional services (33%), and the wholesale trades (32%).

While the skills gap remained a major problem in September, the situation showed a slight improvement.

Thirty percent (31%) reported few qualified applicants for their open positions, down 3 points from August. Twenty percent (20%) reported no qualified applicants, though down 4 points.

Twenty-three percent (33%) reported “finding qualified labor” as their top business problem.

The Small Business Optimism Index eased but

Politics

“The Endless and Ridiculous Wars are ENDING!” – President Donald J. Trump

President Donald J. Trump addresses the 74th Session of the United Nations General Assembly on Tuesday, September 24, 2019. (Photo: People's Pundit Daily)
President Donald J. Trump addresses the 74th Session of the United Nations General Assembly on Tuesday, September 24, 2019. (Photo: People’s Pundit Daily)

President Donald J. Trump defended his decision to bring home U.S. troops fighting in Syria, part of a promise he’s been trying to keep for nearly three years. In a series of threads on Twitter, the president posted that he was elected to end “endless wars” and said the U.S. will only fight “where it is to our benefit and only to win.”

“The United States was supposed to be in Syria for 30 days, that was many years ago,” he tweeted on Monday. “We stayed and got deeper and deeper into battle with no aim in sight.”

Turkey, a controversial member of NATO — the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, also called the North Atlantic Alliance — is expected to launch a “long-planned operation” against the Kurds in Northern Syria. Kurdish YPG fighters are viewed as terrorists by Turkey.

The president’s critics argue the withdrawal will force the Kurds into the arms of Russia, which backs Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. But President Trump argued the Kurds “were paid massive amounts of money and equipment” to fight and “have been fighting Turkey for decades.”

The move is seen by hawks in the Republican Party as a gift to Russia. Democrats jump on any chance to disagree with or oppose the president. Senators Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., and Chris Van Hollen, D-Md., threatened to introduce bipartisan sanctions against Turkey if it invades Syria, including a call for the suspension of NATO membership.

Senator Graham, often an ally of the president, disagreed with the president and said the move will “turn Syria over to Russia, Iran, and Turkey.”

President Trump tweeted Russia and China are unhappy with the decision “because they love seeing us bogged down in a quagmire.”

“I was elected on getting out of these ridiculous endless wars, where our great Military functions as a policing operation to the benefit of people who don’t even like the USA,” he tweeted. “The two most unhappy countries at this move are Russia & China, because they love seeing us bogged down, watching over a quagmire, & spending big dollars to do so.”

“When I took over, our Military was totally depleted. Now it is stronger than ever before. The endless and ridiculous wars are ENDING! We will be focused on the big picture, knowing we can always go back & BLAST!”

Backstory

In his first address to the United Nations General Assembly in September 2017, President Trump outlined the tenets of what he called “principled realism.” The roughly 40-minute address served as an introduction to the Trump Doctrine.

He defined the U.S. as a nation reluctant but not unwilling to use its massive military power, and told the international delegations they should no longer expect hollow demands for burden sharing.

Perhaps most importantly, he stressed an unwillingness to engage in endless wars. Candidate Donald Trump campaigned against military intervention in the Middle East and for a refocusing on Americans at home.

The businessman and political newcomer soon learned D.C. is a company town, and the president often is forced to nominate “the best people” who can be confirmed by the more hawkish U.S. Senate.

While it is true the president has appointed and nominated others more closely aligned with his agenda, they’ve generally taken a back seat to picks deemed acceptable to Establishment Republicans.

That includes numerous top positions filled by officials who do not support his agenda, and have even acted to sabotage it. Unsurprisingly, the administration’s foreign policy has always been a push-and-pull between D.C. interventionists and the “America First” wing represented by the president.

In Spring of 2018, the president told his national security team in the Situation Room that U.S. troops must come home from Syria. The primary objective, at least publicly, had been the defeat of ISIS, or the Islamic State.

Then-current estimates had pegged the number of remaining ISIS fighters at less than 2,000. He ordered the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) to shutdown Operation Timber Sycamore, a covert operation authorized by Barack Obama that ultimately aided in the creation and rise of ISIS.

Initially, CIA flatly refused to carry out those orders and hawkish administration officials — to include Generals James Mattis and H.R. McMaster — were concerned a similar announcement was imminent in Afghanistan.

The civil war was being used as a predicate for regime change in Syria. They want to remove President Assad.

Eight months after the meeting in the Situation Room, General Mattis (defense) had followed General McMaster out the door. The former national security advisor, who developed and backed a strategy of continuous U.S. involvement in Afghanistan, was replaced earlier in the year.

The generals cited a difference of opinion on key decisions. It was the same reasoning behind the most recent departure of former U.S. Ambassador John Bolton, who replaced General McMaster as national security advisor.

The White House maintains Mr. Bolton was fired, but he claimed to have resigned over disagreements. Those disagreements were reportedly over Syria, Iran and Afghanistan. Since his departure, Mr. Bolton has engaged in what’s been described as “a revenge tour.”

President Donald J. Trump defended his decision

Economy

Declines in Unemployment, Increases in Participation Were Widespread in September

The Hispanic unemployment rate in the U.S. fell to a new record low 3.9% in September even as more Hispanic workers entered the labor force. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported the civilian unemployment rate fell to 3.5%, the lowest level since December 1969.

“This was the nineteenth straight month that the unemployment rate has been at or below 4%,” U.S. Secretary of Labor Eugene Scalia touted in a statement. “Low unemployment rates were widespread across Americans of many backgrounds.”

The unemployment rate for Hispanics is down from 4.2% in August and the lowest ever measured since the U.S. Labor Department (DOL) via BLS began tracking the series in June 1999.

Worth noting, the unemployment rate will decline if people exit the labor force, meaning workers retire or give up on the American Dream. As the labor participation rate declines, unemployment will decline.

That’s how BLS methodology works.

As People’s Pundit Daily (PPD) explained in a previous analysis on black unemployment trends, it was the driving factor behind declining unemployment under the Obama Administration.

However, the decline in unemployment for both Hispanic and African Americans under Donald Trump was and is being driven by positive labor market conditions. The decline under Barack Obama was largely a methodological gimmick.

The labor participation rate for Hispanics rose solidly by 0.3% to 67.0% in September. Black labor force participation actually ticked up 0.2% from 62.2% to 62.4 in September.

Yet, the black unemployment rate held steady at its all-time low 5.5%, which was set in August. The unemployment rate for black workers has hit numerous record lows under the Trump Administration.

When labor force participation rises due to people entering the job market and the unemployment rate continues to fall, it’s a far stronger labor market.

Of those unemployed, the number of job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs fell by 304,000 to 2.6 million in September, while the number of new entrants rose by 103,000 to 677,000.

New entrants are unemployed persons who never previously worked.

The Hispanic unemployment rate in the U.S.

Economy

The U.S. trade deficit for goods and services rose slightly by $0.9 billion to $54.9 billion in August, up from a revised $54.0 billion in July. The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reported exports rose $0.5 billion to $207.9 billion and imports rose $1.3 billion to $262.8 billion.

Forecasters were looking for a range of $-55.0 billion to $-52.0 billion and the consensus forecast was $-54.5 billion.

The 3-month average for the goods and services deficit fell $0.3 billion to $54.8 billion for the period ending in August. Average exports declined $0.8 billion to $207.2 billion, while average imports fell $1.1 billion to $262.0 billion.

Year-over-year, the 3-month average for the goods and services deficit rose $3.2 billion for the period ending in August 2018. Average exports declined $2.0 billion and average imports rose $1.2 billion.

The U.S. trade deficit for goods and

Economy

Black, Hispanic Unemployment Rates at All-Time Lows

The U.S. unemployment rate in September fell to 3.5%, the lowest level since December 1969, and total nonfarm payrolls increased by 136,000. The unemployment rate for black (5.5%) and Hispanic (3.9%) workers are at record lows.

Forecasters were expecting a low of 120,000 to a high of 179,000. The consensus forecast was 145,000. However, the U.S. economy added more than 40,000 jobs than the last two jobs reports indicated.

PriorPrior RevisedConsensus ForecastForecast RangeActual
Nonfarm Payrolls – M/M ∆130,000 168,000 145,000 120,000  to 179,000 136,000 
Unemployment Rate – Level3.7%3.7%3.6% to 3.8%3.5%
Private Payrolls – M/M ∆96,000 122,000 135,000 105,000  to 166,000 114,000 
Manufacturing Payrolls – M/M ∆3,000 2.000 3,000 -12,000  to 6,000 -2.000 
Participation Rate – level63.2%63.1%63.0% to 63.2%63.2%
Average Hourly Earnings – M/M ∆0.4%0.3%0.2% to 0.3%0.0%
Average Hourly Earnings – Y/Y ∆3.2%3.2%3.1% to 3.4%2.9%
Av Workweek – All Employees34.4 hrs34.4 hrs34.4 hrs to 34.5 hrs34.4 hrs

The labor force participation rate held steady at a very positive 63.2%, beating the consensus forecast expecting a 0.1% decline. The employment-population ratio, though little changed at 61.0% for September, has now been up by 0.6% for the year.

Of those unemployed, the number of job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs fell by 304,000 to 2.6 million in September, while the number of new entrants rose by 103,000 to 677,000.

New entrants are unemployed persons who never previously worked.

Average hourly earnings (AHEs), or wages, have increased by 2.9% over the previous 12 months. It had been at or above 3% for 13 consecutive months.

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for July was revised up by 7,000 from +159,000 to +166,000, and the change for August was revised up by 38,000 from +130,000 to +168,000.

“The September jobs report is a very solid report,” Tim Anderson, analyst at TJM Investments at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), said. “While it may be a touch below the ‘in print’ consensus, many were expecting a headline number below 100,000 after the negative data earlier in the week.”

With these revisions, employment gains in July and August combined were 45,000 more than previously reported.

“With the labor force participation rate holding above 63% and the solid upward revision to August and July combined, this was a very positive report,” Mr. Anderson added. “115,000 of those jobs were in the private sector.”

Worth noting, the Challenger, Gray & Christmas Job-Cut Report released earlier this week for September came in at 41,557, down from nearly 60,000 in August. It was a positive sign for the Employment Situation.

Correction: A previous version of this story incorrectly stated the last date the Total U.S. Civilian Unemployment Rate was 3.5%. It stated May 1948, a month in which it was indeed 3.5%. But the most recent date is December 1968. We apologize to readers for this error and have corrected the date. A post that appeared on Twitter was captured via screenshot, deleted and corrected for the record.

The U.S. unemployment rate in September fell

Economy

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (NMI) Relies Heavily on Consumer Spending, But Sentiment Driving Levels

A Walmart employee who serves as a "customer host," walks in front of the customer service desk at a Walmart super-center location in Gainesville, Florida. (Photo: Laura Baris/People's Pundit Daily/PPD)
A Walmart employee who serves as a “customer host,” walks in front of the customer service desk at a Walmart super-center location in Gainesville, Florida. (Photo: Laura Baris/People’s Pundit Daily/PPD)

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Non-Manufacturing Index (NMI) came in at 52.6 for September, a slower rate of growth that missed the forecast. That’s the worst reading in three years.

Forecasters were looking for a low of 54.0 and a high of 56.4. The consensus forecast was 55.5 after a reading of 56.4 in August.

“The non-manufacturing sector pulled back after reflecting strong growth in August,” Anthony Nieves, Chair of the ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. “The respondents are mostly concerned about tariffs, labor resources and the direction of the economy.”

The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index decreased to 55.2 percent, 6.3 percentage points lower than the August reading of 61.5 percent, reflecting growth for the 122nd consecutive month. The New Orders Index registered 53.7 percent; 6.6 percentage points lower than the reading of 60.3 percent in August. The Employment Index decreased 2.7 percentage points in September to 50.4 percent from the August reading of 53.1 percent. The Prices Index increased 1.8 percentage points from the August reading of 58.2 percent to 60 percent, indicating that prices increased in September for the 28th consecutive month. According to the NMI®, 13 non-manufacturing industries reported growth. The non-manufacturing sector pulled back after reflecting strong growth in August. The respondents are mostly concerned about tariffs, labor resources and the direction of the economy.”

While consumer spending remains strong and the holiday shopping season is expected to be stronger in 2019 than in 2018, sentiment and fear drove the numbers down in September.

WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING
  • “Tariffs are adding uncertainty to short-term pricing on certain commodities, but suppliers are finding alternate solutions. The bigger impacts appear to be on demand side, which is driving short-term favorability in certain domestic markets.” (Accommodation & Food Services)
  • “Demand has been variable — up one month, down the next. I think customers are watching our input costs and buying ahead on the dips, to the extent that contracts allow.” (Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting)
  • “We are very busy right now [and] expect to be so for the next 12 months. We are still very shorthanded with qualified labor.” (Construction)
  • “Gearing up for the fourth quarter of 2019. On track to end the year generally as anticipated, considering interest-rate changes, trade and tariff issues and other economic indicators and trends.” (Finance & Insurance)
  • “We continue with low patient census, which affects our orders and revenue.” (Health Care & Social Assistance)
  • “As employee cost [wages] are increasing in this better economy, it is getting harder to fight price increases on goods and services.” (Information)
  • “Costs are going up, from labor to chemicals to metals.” (Management of Companies & Support Services)
  • “While Chinese tariffs are understandable, they are impacting our supply chain decisions. We are actively pursuing alternate sources for our China-based production. At this point, we have not passed on tariff costs to our customers, but we are evaluating all options.” (Other Services)
  • “Business continues to pick up as we quickly approach Q4. Week by week, we inch closer to a much-anticipated holiday retail season, which requires not only last-minute buys, but a push to fill open positions.” (Retail Trade)

The 13 non-manufacturing industries reporting growth in September — listed in order — are: Utilities; Retail Trade; Construction; Mining; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Accommodation & Food Services; Public Administration; Management of Companies & Support Services; Finance & Insurance; Transportation & Warehousing; Information; Health Care & Social Assistance; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services.

The four industries reporting a decrease are: Educational Services; Other Services; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; and Wholesale Trade.

Earlier this week, the worst manufacturing reading in 10 years sparked a selloff in the markets and reignited fears that the U.S. economy is slowing down and could be headed toward a recession.

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Non-Manufacturing

Economy

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State-by-state, the percentage change in personal income for the second quarter (Q2) of 2019 ranged from a high of 7.5% in Texas to unchanged in North Dakota. There were no declines in personal income for Q2 2019.

Personal income in South Dakota (Rank 49) rose by 1.3%.

In Texas, leading contributors to earnings gains were professional, scientific, and technical services. The same was true of five other fast-growing states– Washington (Rank 3), Utah (Rank 4), Nevada (Rank 5), Arizona (Rank 6) and Oregon (Rank 7).

Idaho saw the second largest increase in personal income at 7.4%, earning them Rank 2. Farming was the leading contributor to the earnings increase in Idaho.

Personal income gained by 7% in Washington, 6.9% in Utah, 6.3% in Nevada and Arizona, and 6.2% in Oregon.

Nationally, personal income gained at an annual rate of 5.4% for Q2 2019, down from 6.2% in Q1 2019. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported earnings rose 4.4% in Q2 after gaining by an upwardly revised 8.1% in Q1.

For the nation, leading contributors to earnings growth were professional, scientific, and technical services; finance and insurance; and state and local government were the leading contributors to overall growth in earnings.

Mining, which drove the leader states for ranking gross domestic product (GDP), was the leading contributor to the earnings increase in New Mexico (Rank 9).

Data for Q2 2019 is preliminary, while all other quarters are revised. However, prior data indicate growth specifically in 2019 is likely stronger than we currently believe.

Annually revised data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) revealed wages grew even stronger than initially reported in 2017 and 2018, the first two years under the Trump Administration.

Meanwhile, the far more moderate gains reported for the tenure under Barack Obama, were revised further down. Compensation increased 42% more during the first two years of the Trump Administration than in latter two years under the Obama Administration in 2015 and 2016.

Employee compensation rose 4.5% and 5% in 2017 and 2018, respectively. That’s roughly $4.4 billion and $87.1 billion more than initially reported.

In the fourth quarter (Q4) 2018, wages posted the biggest gain (3.1%) since Q3 2008, hitting that mark for the first time since the Great Recession.

That trend has clearly continued into 2019.

Compensation rose $378 billion, or 3.4% in the first six months of 2019. That means employee compensation in the first six months of 2019 gained $150 billion more than all of 2016.

State-by-state, personal income gains for the second

Economy

The Labor Department reported initial jobless claims for the week ending September 28 came in at a seasonally adjusted 219,000. The 4-week moving average was unchanged at 212,500.

Forecasters were looking for a low of 210,000 to a high of 219,000. The consensus forecast was 216,000.

The insured unemployment rate was also unchanged at 1.1%, the lowest level ever recorded and set the prior week. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment for the week ending September 21 fell 5,000 to 1,651,000. The 4-week moving average fell 5,750 to 1,661,500.

No state was triggered “on” the Extended Benefits program during the week ending September 14.

The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending September 14 were in Puerto Rico (2.0), New Jersey (1.8), California (1.6), Connecticut (1.6), Alaska (1.5), Pennsylvania (1.5), the Virgin Islands (1.4), Illinois (1.3), and Massachusetts (1.3).

The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending September 21 were in Michigan (+4,258), Kansas (+1,475), Missouri (+1,224), Tennessee (+1,191), and Indiana (+796), while the largest decreases were in New York (-1,777), Georgia (-946), South Carolina (-854), New Jersey (-737), and Florida (-571).

The Labor Department reported initial jobless claims

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