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Consumer-Confidence-Index-Reuters

Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index. (Photo: Reuters)

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index completely plunged in November to its lowest level in at least a year, indicating Americans lost faith in the job market. The Conference Board, a private research group, said Tuesday its index of consumer confidence fell to 90.4 from a revised 99.1 in October. The initial October reading was 97.6, and also represented a decline from the previous month.

“Consumer confidence retreated in November, following a moderate decrease in October,” said Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. “The decline was mainly due to a less favorable view of the job market. Consumers’ appraisal of current business conditions, on the other hand, was mixed. Fewer consumers said conditions had improved, while the proportion saying conditions had deteriorated also declined.”

Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal had expected a reading of 99.5.

The index showed consumers confidence on the short-term outlook declined sharply in November, as the percentage of consumers expecting business conditions to improve over the next six months fell to 14.8%, down from 18.1% last month. Those anticipating business conditions to worsen increased to 11.0%, up from 10.4%.

“Heading into 2016, consumers are cautious about the labor market and expect little change in business conditions,” Franco added.

Consumers’ outlook for the labor market was markedly more pessimistic than the prior month, which also declined. The number of respondents anticipating more jobs in the next few months fell from 14.4% to 11.6%, while those anticipating fewer jobs increased from 16.6% to 18.7%. The proportion of consumers expecting their incomes to increase declined from 18.1% to 17.2%, while the proportion expecting a decline increased from 10.5% to 11.8%.

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index plunged

“Forget About a Third President Bush, This Road Leads to a Second President Clinton”

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Republican presidential candidates, businessman Donald Trump, left, and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush talk together before the start of the CNN Republican presidential debate at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library and Museum on Wednesday, Sept. 16, 2015, in Simi Valley, Calif. (PHOTO: AP/Chris Carlson)

The Republican Party’s “guerrilla campaign” to destroy frontrunner Donald Trump could very well doom the GOP’s chances at the White House in 2016. Liz Mair, a former communications official for the Republican National Committee, is leading a group called Trump Card LLC that is funded by secret donors collectively moving to take down Trump.

Though it has been reported that these secret donors have ties to multiple declared candidates for the nomination, PPD has confirmed the most significant contribution will come from allies of former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush located in his adopted home state, Texas and the Northeast region. The second and third largest contributions will come from supporters of Florida Sen. Marco Rubio and Ohio Gov. John Kasich, in that order.

“The Republican Party is gearing up to do what they do best–shoot themselves in the foot,” said PPD’s senior political analyst Rich Baris. “Not only do our surveys show this push is likely to backfire with GOP primary voters, but it is also likely to provoke a devastating response from Trump, himself.”

In September, the billionaire real estate mogul signed a party pledge not to run as an independent come the fall, putting an end to speculation that completely terrified the party establishment. But with the onset of reports widely confirming the secret movement to collectively unseat the frontrunner, The Donald has since indicated a willingness to back away from the pledge.

“I will see what happens,” Trump said. “I have to be treated fairly. If I’m treated fairly, I’m fine.”

In return for the billionaire real estate mogul signing the pledge, RNC Chairman Reince Priebus and other party operatives gave Trump assurances he would be treated fairly. However, a move to “defeat and destroy” a frontrunner that has held a 4-month lead would be as unprecedented for a party primary as the lead, itself. Baris says that would not only constitute a breach of the deal on the party’s behalf but, if Donald Trump decides to run as an independent, would almost certainly result in a second President Clinton rather than a third President Bush.

“While I have a number of comments in mind that I could challenge him on, he’s absolutely right when he says he has been the counter-puncher since he announced,” Baris said. “If you push the man too far and he runs as an independent, it’s all over for the GOP. Forget about a third President Bush, this road leads to a second President Clinton.”

Baris cited recent surveys showing Trump earning up to a third of the general election vote in a three-way matchup against Hillary Clinton and a generic Republican candidate. Trump has brought in both new voters to the Republican fold as well as independent voters who have chosen to sit out recent elections. But, according to Baris, the party elites are showing they don’t truly care about expanding the party’s appeal, at least not when Trump’s the catalyst for that expansion.

“Unlike the more conservative base of the party, the Republican establishment is always willing to take their ball and go home,” Baris added. “Only this time they have more reason not to care about the consequences. If Trump is elected they will have little power over the White House anyway, so they see their lack of influence as a non-factor.”

The Republican Party's “guerrilla campaign” to destroy

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Home sales and home prices data and reports. (Photo: REUTERS)

The S&P/Case Shiller composite index of 20 metropolitan areas showed annualized U.S. single-family home prices rose in September above market expectations. The index gained 5.5% in September on a year-over-year basis juxtaposed to 5.1% throughout the year until August. It was firmly above the 5.1% estimate from a Reuters poll of economists.

“Home prices and housing continue to show strength with home prices rising at more than double the rate of inflation,” says David M. Blitzer, Managing Director and Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “The general economy appeared to slow slightly earlier in the fall, but is now showing renewed strength.”

Housing market data continues to be mixed as a supposed tightening labor market has led to expectations that the Federal Reserve will begin to increase interest rates in December for the first time since the Great Recession. The S&P/Case Shiller index may come as welcome news to some, others are concerned that prices have been gaining on the back of a renewed artificial government intervention in the housing sector.

“The news cycle is filled with stories about the alleged tightness of credit for first-time buyers,” said Stephen Oliner, codirector of AEI’s International Center on Housing Risk and senior fellow at UCLA’s Ziman Center for Real Estate. “Our data show this narrative is untrue. Many first-time buyers with ordinary credit profiles – or worse – get loans every month.”

The composite National Mortgage Risk Index (NMRI) for Agency purchase loans stood at 12.14% in October, up 0.76 percentage point from a year earlier. The monthly composite, which gauges the risky mortgage market share in the housing sector, has increased year-over-year in every month since January 2014.

“While this will make news, it is not likely to push mortgage rates far above the recent level of 4 percent on 30 year conventional loans. In the last year, mortgage rates have moved in a narrow range as home prices have risen; it will take much more from the Fed to slow home price gains.”

The S&P/Case Shiller composite index of 20

Gross-Domestic-Product-GDP-Reuters

File photo: Shipping cranes and containers at a U.S. port representing exports and imports factored in overall gross domestic product, or GDP. (Photo: REUTERS)

The Commerce Department said on Tuesday that a second reading on 3Q gross domestic product showed the U.S. economy grew at an annualized pace of 2.1%, up from a prior reading of 1.5%. The reading matched Wall Street expectations, and puts expansion for the world’s biggest economy around 2% in the second half of the year.

Businesses accumulated $90.2 billion worth of inventory in the third quarter, up from the $56.8 billion reported last month. As a result, the change in inventories sliced off 0.59 percentage point from third-quarter GDP growth, rather than the 1.44 percentage points initially reported in October.

Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, grew at a 3.0 percent rate, down from 3.2%. The downward current revision was fueled by communication services and utilities.

The Commerce Department said on Tuesday that

These People (Democrats) Aren’t Interested in Protecting Us From Harm, and the Folks Know It”

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Bill O’Reilly, host of the O’Reilly Factor on Fox News, said Monday night that Americans oppose the Syrian refugee program because President Obama has lost all credibility on matters of national security.

“The signal sent to the president is: we don’t trust you to protect us,” O’Reilly said. “So that’s the deal… The Democratic Party has become completely ineffective at fighting terrorism.”

O’Reilly ran a clip of House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., who touted at a press conference that Obama put together a 60-nation coalition that she has “complete confidence” will defeat ISIS. He called Pelosi an “intellectual zombie” and called the party’s line a myth and “dangerous deceit” that “no sane” person would believe.

“These people are not interested in protecting us from harm and the folks know it,” O’Reilly added.

In the latest FOX Poll, 65% of American registered voters say the president’s policy toward ISIS has not been aggressive enough, while 24% say it has been just right. Four percent “live with Bernie Sanders” and say it has been too aggressive.

Bill O'Reilly said Monday night that Americans

[brid video=”20741″ player=”2077″ title=”Turkey Shoots Down Russian SU24 Warplane”]

Officials confirmed early Tuesday that a Turkish F-16 fighter jet shot down a Russian fighter jet with an air-to-air missile near the the Kızıldağ region near Turkey’s Hatay province close to the Syrian border.

The two SU-24 Russian pilots, one reportedly dead and the other captured, can clearly be seen parachuting down after an at least somewhat successful ejection from the aircraft.

Video H/T Daily Sabah

WATCH: Video footage shows the two pilots

One Russian Fighter Jet Pilot Dead, Another Reportedly Captured

Russian-warplane

Russian warplane. (Photo: AP)

U.S. officials confirmed early Tuesday that a Turkish F-16 fighter jet shot down a Russian Su-24 fighter jet with an air-to-air missile near the border between Turkey and Syria. NATO has called an emergency meeting in Brussels as the possibility of conflict between Moscow and NATO increases.

“The aim of this extraordinary North Atlantic Council meeting is for Turkey to inform allies about the downing of a Russian airplane,” NATO’s deputy spokesperson Carmen Romero told the Associated Press.

A Turkish military statement said the plane entered Turkish airspace over the town of Yayladagi, in Hatay province. It said the plane was warned 10 times within the space of 5 minutes. Turkey changed its rules of engagement a few years ago after Syria shot down a Turkish plane. According to the new rules, Turkey said it would consider all “elements” approaching from Syria an enemy threat and would act accordingly.

Video footage of the incident showed the plane on fire before crashing on a hill, and the two Russian pilots were forced to eject. However, one pilot is dead and the other reportedly captured by Syrian rebels, though PPD has not yet confirmed that to be the case.

WATCH: Russian Fighter Jet Shot Down, Pilots Eject With Parachutes Before Crash

Pentagon officials said in a statement that they were aware of the incident but that no U.S. military personnel were involved.

“Our Turkish allies have informed us that their military aircraft shot down a Russian military aircraft near the Syrian border after it violated Turkish airspace on Tuesday,” a Defense Department statement read. “At this time, we can confirm that U.S. forces were NOT [emphasis theirs] involved in this incident.”

The development comes following an earlier accusation that Russia violated Turkish airspace in October, prompting NATO to deploy six U.S. Air Force F-15 fighters previously in stationed in Britain to to Incirlik Air Base in Turkey. Also in October, the North Atlantic Council, which is NATO’s governing body, had warned Moscow it was flirting with “extreme danger” if it continued to send planes into Turkish air space.

The alliance’s European Command said the deployment was “in response to the government of Turkey’s request for support in securing the sovereignty of Turkish airspace” and an effort to secure their member’s airspace.

U.S. officials confirmed early Tuesday that a

Obama-G-20-Summit-Press-Conference

President Barack Obama answers reporters’ questions at a press conference at the G-20 Summit in Turkey on Nov. 16, 2015. (Photo: Reuters)

How could America have twice elected a president who not only can’t stand America but also won’t perform his constitutional duty of defending it?
Even some former administration officials and rank-and-file Democrats are finally recognizing that there is something strange about a commander in chief who declines to listen to his advisers on terrorism, won’t read their daily briefings and is uninterested in their threat assessments.

It’s sad that so many refused to take Obama seriously when he promised to fundamentally transform America. It’s inexcusable that the media and so many naive voters believed that his radical past and his ongoing affiliation with the Rev. Jeremiah Wright’s racist church were irrelevant. It’s disgraceful that a man who pledged to unite America on race, gender and income groups has intentionally polarized us to a point not seen since the 1960s. It’s contemptible that he has used his office to alienate citizens from law enforcement officials throughout the nation. It’s abominable that he is systematically dismantling our defense capabilities and approaching foreign policy as if his actions and inactions had no more consequences than a chalkboard exercise by a clique of airheaded leftist professors in their faculty lounge.

Islamist terrorists are waging a global war against America and our allies, and the president won’t even identify our enemy. He sees Christians, Republicans and conservatives as the real threat to America — the distorted version of America, that is, that he envisions. He continues to trash America on foreign soil at every opportunity.

I (and others) have long been saying that Obama is obsessed with apologizing for America. Many of us documented his world apology tour, whereby he deeply criticized this nation at every stop of his globe-trotting junket. Yet his shameless defenders say he was just building bridges and alliances. Talk about a bridge to nowhere.

I wonder whether these intellectually dishonest defenders will still deny that Obama is apologizing for America after hearing his words from Malaysia last week. Actually, I don’t wonder. They’ll love it. They are fellow America haters and have never been more ecstatic about a president — one who is finally using the immense power of the presidential office to tear this nation apart.

If you think my words are harsh, it’s only because you are not talking to people all over this nation who are feeling and thinking exactly as I am. They are legion. They are fed up. They are not having any more of it.

At a town hall meeting in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, on Friday, Obama denigrated the United States for its hypocrisy, its “growing inequality” and the inadequacies of our political system. A Martian traveler might well conclude that this man hasn’t occupied the Oval Office for the past seven years. Why doesn’t Obama just go on TV and confess that his entire presidency has been a failure — by his own regrettable benchmarks?

Concerning America’s hypocrisy, he told his rapt audience that we have to have some humility and not tell other nations what to do because we don’t have such a great track record ourselves. We’ve meddled in other nations’ internal affairs, and we have problems in our own country. Here again, Obama forgets that he has been president and that he has improperly intermeddled with other nations, especially our reliable ally Israel. And problems in our own country? I know this is news to the utopian left, but every nation is always going to have problems.

He particularly lamented our “growing inequality” and even blames it for our divisive politics and cynicism — two conditions to which he has been the greatest contributor for years. What’s that you said about hypocrisy, Mr. Obama?

But he gets the biggest prize for audaciously complaining about our political system, claiming that money is overwhelming ideas. Politicians are listening more to their wealthy contributors than to “ordinary people.”

Well, that may be true as far as it goes. We conservatives are tired of the ruling class and the establishment elite and their incestuous lobbyists, but we don’t believe that the left’s proposals of suppressing speech are the solution. And if anyone’s hands are dirty on this score, Obama’s are.

More importantly, Obama has no credibility in complaining about politicians who fail to listen to the American people — whether or not because of money. No one listens less to the people than he does. No one is more self-assured with less justification than he is. The American people are aghast at his arrogant refusal to defend America and listen to his advisers, his insistence on bringing terrorist-imbedded refugees and immigrants into this nation, his bizarre assertion that global warming is a greater threat to this nation than Islamic terrorism, his endless lies on Obamacare, his constant slandering of this country, and on and on.

It will be a sheer joy when we have a new president, God willing, who genuinely loves this nation and sees it as a force for good throughout the world and begins to return it to that path. No, this nation is not over, but it needs to turn back to its founding principles and believe in itself again.
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How could America have twice elected a

airport-travelers

A traveler gathers his luggage at the San Francisco International Airport Sunday in San Francisco. (Photo: AP/Marcio Jose Sanchez)

Like many others, I can’t resist academic studies on happiness. They often come up with persuasive reasons some seem to be happier than others. I’m always on the lookout for pointers.

That said, there’s no happy-mometer to push under someone’s tongue to measure contentment with scientific confidence. So some skepticism is warranted.

Of course, the researchers are assessing what they call “subjective well-being.” That’s how individuals regard their happiness level, not what the rest of the world thinks it should be.

We all know people who are happiest when they are complaining. And of course, sense of happiness is culturally influenced. One study was titled “Are Scandinavians Happier than Asians?”

Most of us believe, at least at times, that money by itself does not buy happiness. We’ve seen America’s most elite shopping streets — from Rodeo Drive in Beverly Hills to Worth Avenue in Palm Beach to Madison Avenue in New York — populated by dissatisfied mugs, fancy shopping bags in tow.

Anyhow, a new study finds Americans in their 30s or older less likely to say they’re happy than their parents did at the same age. Teens and younger adults, meanwhile, report being happier than older Americans said they were years back.

What could be behind this?

“Our current culture of pervasive technology, attention-seeking and fleeting relationships is exciting and stimulating for teens and young adults but may not provide the stability and sense of community that mature adults require,” explains Jean Twenge, the San Diego State University psychologist who led the study.

A parenting and educational focus on raising children’s self-esteem with praise, ribbons and trophies may have also created an unrealistic expectation of big things to come. When the less glamorous truth begins to dawn at maturity, the house of rosy assumptions may start coming down.

As Tim Bono, a 32-year-old psychologist at Washington University in St. Louis, told The Associated Press, “My generation has been bathed in messages of how great we are and how anything is possible for us.”

Discovering our limitations can be depressing. For those who make peace with it, though, it can be liberating.

Money does play a role in perceptions of happiness, but mainly in its role as a means of comparison. It’s been often observed that poor people “moving up” economically tend to be happier than far richer people seeing themselves on the down escalator.

Rising income inequality — and the media explosion waving it in the faces of not only the struggling middle class but the “merely affluent” — is often cited in current happiness studies. As someone once said, inadequacy is the birthright of every American.

And our fanatically competitive culture demands constant comparisons with others. Several prominent writers have quipped that it is not enough to succeed; one’s friends must fail.

Many assume that crime rises during economic downturns, but that’s not necessarily the case. In 2008, right after the great economic meltdown, the New York police noticed that crime rates, already on a downward slope, were continuing to decline. How could that be happening at a time of double-digit unemployment?

The answer is that much crime is committed not out of economic desperation but out of the sense that one has been unfairly denied the opportunity to succeed. In tough economic times, the unemployed and the bankrupt have lots of company.

Of course, having company — “community” is the better word — is key to well-being at every income level. So is getting over one’s sense of entitlement, in other words, being content with what we have.

It may be ultimately pointless to ask, “Will we ever find happiness?” We just have to learn to be happy without it.

With healthy skepticism, a new study finds

Bobby-Jindal-Special-Report

Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal during an interview with Fox News’ Bret Baier on “Special Report” (Photo: FOX News)

There is a painful irony in a recent decision of the 5th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals, on the side of Governor Bobby Jindal of Louisiana, whom the U.S. Department of Justice tried to stop from making charter schools widely available to minority youngsters in his state.

The Circuit Court’s decision over-ruled a lower court decision on the side of the Justice Department, which was opposing the large-scale creation of charter schools in Louisiana, on grounds that this would interfere with long-standing federal government efforts to racially integrate public schools.

In short, Governor Jindal’s attempt to give minority children a chance for a better education prevailed against the attempts of the political left to use these children as guinea pigs for their theories about mixing and matching students by race.

What made the Circuit Court decision ironic and painful was that this decision came right after Bobby Jindal had withdrawn his candidacy for the Republican nomination for president in 2016. Nor was he the first governor to withdraw from the campaign for a presidential nomination. Nor is he likely to be the last.

Some of us think someone who is going to govern from the White House ought to have had some experience governing somewhere else before, if only so that we can get some idea of how good — or how bad — he is at governing.

How good someone may have been in business, or in a profession, or as a member of Congress, is no real clue to what that individual will be like when it comes to governing the country.

Certainly choosing a first-term Senator on the basis of his political rhetoric is something that has not turned out well in the case of Barack Obama, and may turn out to be truly catastrophic, as international terrorism spreads.

The withdrawal of Governor Scott Walker of Wisconsin, and then of Bobby Jindal of Louisiana, are major losses — not because we know that either of them would make a great president, but precisely because we have no idea whether either of them would have been great or awful.

The primary campaign is supposed to help us find out such things. Instead, the media have turned this into a side show about Donald Trump.

Nor was this all media political bias. The Fox News Channel, which broadcast the first “debates,” opened up the second-tier candidates’ session with a question about Donald Trump, who was not even present, rather than about the nation’s problems, which have been all too present.

The media instinct for the flashy and clever irrelevancy seems to be non-partisan. The fact that we may be at a crossroads in world history does not seem to spoil their sense of fun and games.

Much of the time that could have been spent bringing out what candidates with governing experience have to offer was spent instead interviewing not only Trump himself but even members of his family.

This year the Republicans have had a much better qualified set of nominees to choose from than in previous election years. But most of them may be gone before we have learned enough about them to know whether we would have been for them or against them.

We may already know as much as we are likely to know about the three first-term Senators — Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz and Rand Paul — since they have no governing records to be examined. We may also know as much about the candidates from outside politics — Donald Trump, Ben Carson and Carly Fiorina — as we are likely to know.

It is the governors who have a record that goes beyond their rhetorical skills. And it is those records that need to be examined.

A complicating factor in this and some previous Republican primary campaigns is that there are so many conservatives splitting the conservative vote that it may guarantee that some mushy moderate gets the nomination, but cannot get enough Republican voters to turn out on election day.

At this point, Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey seems to be the kind of articulate conservative candidate who can galvanize Republican voters to turn out on election day to vote, and perhaps even attract some Democrats with that political rarity, straight talk.

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Thomas Sowell: It is the governors who

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