Mortgage Applications Survey’s Refinance Index Now 133% Higher Year-Over-Year
A graphic concept depicting a young family and a mortgage application for a home. (Photo: AdobeStock)
The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey posted a solid 8.1% gain for the week ending September 27.
The Market Composite Index is a measure of mortgage loan application volume from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index gained 8.0% from with the prior week.
The Refinance Index — which is a more volatile gauge — rose 14% from the prior week and is now up 133% year-over-year.
The less volatile seasonally adjusted Purchase Index ticked up 1.0% from the week prior. The unadjusted Purchase Index also increased 1.0% compared with the previous week and is now 10% higher year-over-year.
“Mortgage rates mostly decreased last week, with the 30-year fixed rate dropping below 4% for the sixth time in the past nine weeks,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. “Borrowers responded to these lower rates, leading to a 14% increase in refinance applications.”
“Although refinance activity slowed in September compared to August, the months together were the strongest since October 2016,” Mr. Kan added. “The slight changes in rates are still causing large swings in refinance volume, and we expect this sensitivity to persist.”
The refinance share of mortgage activity rose to 58.0% of total applications, up from 54.9% the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity rose to 5.5% of total applications.
“Purchase applications also increased and remained more than 9 percent higher than a year ago,” Mr. Kan continued. Low rates and healthy housing market fundamentals continue to support solid levels of purchase activity.”
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($484,350 or less) fell to 3.99% from 4.02%, with points remaining unchanged at 0.38 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
Total Nonfarm Payrolls Revised Down 195,000 to 157,000 for August
The payroll processing firm ADP reported total nonfarm private employment rose 135,000 in September, under the consensus forecast. The consensus forecast for the ADP National Employment Report was 152,000.
Forecasters were looking for a low of 100,000 to a high of 160,000.
“The job market has shown signs of a slowdown,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute. “The average monthly job growth for the past three months is 145,000, down from 214,000 for the same time period last year.”
The goods-producing sector added 8,000 jobs, including 9,000 in construction and 2,000 in manufacturing. Natural resources/mining lost 2,000.
Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, “Businesses have turned more cautious in their hiring. Small businesses have become especially hesitant. If businesses pull back any further, unemployment will begin to rise.”
The service-providing sector added 127,000 jobs, led by education/health services adding 42,000 and trade/transportation/utilities adding 28,000.
The August total of jobs added was revised down from 195,000 to 157,000.
The U.S. Census Bureau reported total construction spending was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,287.3 billion in August, a gain of just 0.1% (±1.2%). The downwardly revised estimate for July was $1,285.6 billion.
That’s 1.9% (±1.8%) below the August 2018 estimate of $1,312.2 billion and construction spending amounted to $851.3 billion during the first 8 months of the year, or 2.3% (±1.2%) below the $871.3 billion for the same period in 2018.
Private Construction Spending
Spending on private construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $955.0 billion, nearly unchanged from (±0.8%) the revised July estimate of $954.8 billion.
Residential construction came in at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $507.2 billion, a gain of 0.9% (±1.3%) from the estimate of $502.5 billion in July.
Nonresidential construction came in at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $447.9 billion in August, or 1.0% (±0.8%) below the revised estimate of $452.3 billion for July.
Public Construction Spending
In August, the estimated seasonally adjusted annual rate of public construction spending was $332.3 billion, 0.4% (±2.0%) above the revised July estimate of $330.8 billion.
Peter Schweizer, the President of the Government Accountability Institute (GAI), is defending the findings of his investigation into Joe Biden and Hunter Biden. The Biden campaign targeted the journalist and author, who appeared on “Life, Liberty and Levin” on Sunday.
In Secret Empires: How the American Political Class Hides Corruption and Enriches Family and Friends, Mr. Schweizer and the GAI detailed Hunter Biden’s role in a billion-dollar business deal with China when his father was vice president running point on relations with Beijing.
The book, which hit #1 on the New York Times bestseller list, also investigated Republicans, including Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Kty. But the report on Biden’s involvement with the Chinese firm is drawing the ire of the leading 2020 Democratic contender and his supporters.
In a press release on Monday, the anti-corruption organization said “some of the book’s findings have been misrepresented by political partisans and by some in the media.” The GAI backed up the findings of the investigation by releasing documents.
“The Biden campaign,” they wrote, “has tried to create the impression that Hunter Biden was only ‘passively involved’ in a controversial billion-dollar business venture with China when his father was Vice President of the U.S.”
“Our research shows otherwise.”
The release linked to a document showing Hunter Biden was on the board of directors of Bohai Harvest RST (Shanghai) Equity Investment Management Co., Ltd., the firm managing the $1.5 billion fund.
“His business partner, Devon Archer, was Vice Chairman and sat on the company’s Investment Committee,” the statement read. “These are not merely ‘advisory’ roles.”
Surrogates and media supporters of the former vice president claim Hunter Biden did not receive a stake in BHR until after he left office. The GAI released BHR’s registration documents. They show Hunter Biden’s firm, Rosemont Seneca, and its American partner the Thornton Group, held a combined 30% stake dating back to 2015.
The GAI concedes disclosure records are not currently available to gauge the exact amount of compensation Mr. Biden received for the deal. But they argue “his $420,000 investment in the management company bought him influence over $1.5 billion in capital backed by the authority of the Chinese government.”
The registration records show Hunter Biden also partnered with James Bulger, the nephew of infamous mobster Whitey Bulger, on the lucrative business deal. The Thornton Group is run by Mr. Bulger, the son of Massachusetts state senator Billy Bulger.
“The Chinese investment entity with which Hunter Biden had teamed explicitly states the value – ‘the networks and know-how’ – that came with partnering with the Vice President’s son and his partner, Devon Archer,” GAI added.
The Bidens’ dealings in China and Ukraine have come under renewed scrutiny nearly two years after Mr. Schweizer released the book and its findings. Critics argue documented evidence not fully covered by big media outline a pay-for-play pattern of the Biden family enriching themselves off of the former vice president’s long career in public service.
Former General Prosecutor for the Republic of Ukraine Viktor Shokin testified in a sworn affidavit he was fired by former President Petro Poroshenko as a result of “direct and intense pressure from Joe Biden and the U.S. administration.”
“Poroshenko asked me to resign due to pressure from the U.S. Presidential administration, in particular from Joe Biden. who was the U.S. Vice-President,” Mr. Shokin testified. “Biden was threatening to withhold USD$ I billion in subsidies to Ukraine until I was removed from office.”
Former Vice President Biden discussed the firing of Mr. Shokin at an event held by the Council on Foreign Relations on January 23, 2019.
“I said, ‘I’m telling you, you’re not getting the billion dollars.’ I said, ‘you’re not getting the billion.’ I’m going to be leaving here in, I think it was about six hours. I looked at them and said: ‘I’m leaving in six hours. If the prosecutor is not fired, you’re not getting the money.'”
“Well, son of a bitch. (Laughter.) He got fired.”
At the time of his firing, Mr. Shokin had plans to question Hunter Biden about $3 million in fees that he and his partner, Devin Archer, collected from Burisma Holdings over a 16-month period through a U.S. lobbying firm.
In his investigation, Mr. Schweizer reviewed financial records from Morgan Stanley revealing numerous deposits to the account of “Robert H. Biden,” which he said “originated from oligarchs and anonymous LLCs in Ukraine, China, Kazakhstan and elsewhere.”
Burisma, which was under investigation for corruption and tax violations, is led by an oligarch named Mykola Zlochevsky. He served under pro-Russia former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovich.
British authorities froze $23 million of Mr. Zlochevsky’s assets as part of a corruption investigation shortly before Hunter Biden scored a seat on the board. Mr. Biden’s son had no relevant qualifications or energy sector experience to warrant such an appointment.
Company officials stated on the record Burisma was finally free and clear of investigations in mid January 2017, only days before the inauguration of President Donald J. Trump.
In July, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky — newly elected — told President Trump he was “knowledgable about the situation” and planned to “look into the situation,” particularly surrounding Burisma. Democrats in the U.S. House of Representatives have used the phone conversation as a pretext to open an impeachment inquiry against the president.
Critics say the alleged “whistleblower” complaint — which is hearsay coupled with demonstrably false reports — is in reality an effort to stop the exposure of election meddling from and corruption within the Obama Administration, to include the former vice president.
Plagued By Illegal Leaks, Trump Administration Changed Policy in Early 2017
President Donald J. Trump speaks on the phone with Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto on Jan. 27, 2017.
President Donald J. Trump last week released a declassified, unredacted transcript of his telephone conversation with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy from July 25, 2019. Questions surrounding the process of storing the call — perhaps more-so than the content of it — are now central to the impeachment inquiry.
A so-called “whistleblower” complaint — containing hearsay and demonstrably false claims — alleged the conversation contained a quid pro quo, an investigation into Joe Biden in exchange for military aid to Ukraine.
A reading of the transcript showed no such quid pro quo, and the issue of military aid was not mentioned. Democrats quickly turned to questions of process, specifically the White House storing the transcripts from the call on a top-secret secure server.
Democrats argued the storage on the server was indicative of a cover-up. However, the timeline and reason for the clampdown appear to cast doubt on that line of argument.
Multiple sources familiar with the action tell People’s Pundit Daily (PPD) the changes became “standard procedure” after back-to-back leaks plagued the White House in early 2017.
The administration took additional steps to protect against high level leaks after the partial contents of prior calls with the leaders of Mexico and Australia appeared in media reports.
Worth noting, former National Security Adviser Susan Rice admitted at the Texas Tribune Festival on September 28 the Obama Administration also stored transcripts of conversations with foreign leaders on the same top-secret server.
“We never moved them over unless they were legitimately, in the contents classified,” Rice said, though she did not elaborate on the decision-making process.
Parscale: Democrats Are Trying to Use Biden’s Scandal to Steal the 2020 Election
The Trump Campaign and Republican National Committee (RNC) launched a $10 million cable and digital ad blitz to hit Joe Biden on corruption and Democrats for trying to steal the 2020 election through impeachment.
“Democrats want to deny Americans the opportunity to vote to re-elect President Trump and people need to know the facts,” said Brad Parscale, Trump 2020 campaign manager. “This is a Joe Biden scandal and the Democrats are trying to use it to steal the election.”
Viktor Shokin, the former General Prosecutor for the Republican of Ukraine, testified in a sworn affidavit he was fired as a result of “direct and intense pressure from Joe Biden and the U.S. administration.” At the time of his firing, Mr. Shokin had plans to question Hunter Biden about $3 million in fees that he and his partner, Devin Archer, collected from Burisma through a U.S. lobbying firm.
In July, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky — newly elected — told President Trump he was “knowledgable about the situation” and planned to “look into the situation,” particularly surrounding Burisma. Democrats in the U.S. House of Representatives used the phone conversation as a pretext to open an impeachment inquiry against President Donald J. Trump.
Worth noting, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., and House Democrats had not yet read the transcript before announcing impeachment proceedings. Since the announcement, the Trump Campaign has added over 50,000 new donors and raised nearly $10 million, including $8.6 million in the subsequent 48-hour period.
The so-called “whistleblower” complaint — which is little more than demonstrably false claims and hearsay — alleged the president asked a foreign leader to help him with the 2020 election. In truth, he asked about meddling in the 2016 election and the firing of Mr. Shokin under Mr. Biden’s influence.
Critics say the is really an effort to stop the exposure of election meddling from and corruption within the Obama Administration. The RNC has made its first TV ad-buy in 8 years, worth $2 million, to convince Americans of the “seriousness of Democrats’ politically-motivated stunt.”
“This ad buy is just the beginning of an all-out fight to defend our democracy and our President,” RNC Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel said in a statement. “Dozens of House Democrats campaigned on working with President Trump, yet fell in line with Nancy Pelosi and the Socialist Squad in obstructing him.”
“The American people do not support this impeachment charade, and it’s going to backfire on them come November 2020.”
The ads will begin airing Sunday, September 29 in 25-50 U.S. House districts on cable and digital spaces.
Prosecutor With Plans to Question Hunter Biden in Corruption Case Recounts His Firing Under Oath
Former Vice President Joe Biden speaks during the Milken Institute Global Conference in Beverly Hills, California, U.S., May 3, 2017. (Photo: Reuters)
Viktor Shokin, the former General Prosecutor for the Republic of Ukraine, testified in a sworn affidavit he was fired as a result of “direct and intense pressure from Joe Biden and the U.S. administration.” The testimony, which was recently obtained by The Hill, was given for a case in European court surrounding Dmytro Firtash.
Mr. Shokin was appointed General Prosecutor of Ukraine by former President Petro Poroshenko, and received a 318-vote consent of the Rada (Ukraine Parliament), a vote considered a constitutional authority. He served from February 10, 2015 to April 3, 2016.
He was fired at the behest of the U.S. administration, specifically former Vice President Joe Biden, who had been appointed by former President Barack Obama to oversee U.S.-Ukrainian relations.
“Poroshenko asked me to resign due to pressure from the U.S. Presidential administration, in particular from Joe Biden. who was the U.S. Vice-President,” Mr. Shokin testified. “Biden was threatening to withhold USD$ I billion in subsidies to Ukraine until I was removed from office.”
In December 2015, The New York Times reported Burisma had hired Hunter Biden only weeks after his father was appointed to head up relations with Ukraine, despite having no relevant qualifications. Mr. Biden insisted and has maintained the U.S. administration wanted Mr. Shokin fired due to corruption and ineptitude.
He discussed the firing of Mr. Shokin at an event held by the Council on Foreign Relations on January 23, 2019.
So they said they had—they were walking out to a press conference. I said, nah, I’m not going to—or, we’re not going to give you the billion dollars. They said, you have no authority. You’re not the president. The president said—I said, call him.
(Laughter.)
I said, I’m telling you, you’re not getting the billion dollars. I said, you’re not getting the billion. I’m going to be leaving here in, I think it was about six hours. I looked at them and said: I’m leaving in six hours. If the prosecutor is not fired, you’re not getting the money. Well, son of a bitch. (Laughter.) He got fired. And they put in place someone who was solid at the time.
Well, there’s still—so they made some genuine substantial changes institutionally and with people. But one of the three institutions, there’s now some backsliding.
At the time of his firing, Mr. Shokin had plans to question Hunter Biden about $3 million in fees that he and his partner, Devin Archer, collected from Burisma through Blue Star Strategies, a U.S. lobbying firm.
The Hill obtained an official memo memorializing a meeting that took place between Burisma’s U.S. legal team and Ukrainian officials only days after Mr. Biden forced Mr. Poroshenko to fire Mr. Shokin, which calls Mr. Biden’s narrative into question.
They offered “an apology for dissemination of false information” surrounding the Prosecutor General’s Office of Ukraine” and other officials. U.S. administration officials wanted to make amends and secure an urgent meeting with the new temporarily prosecutor. On April 6, 2016, a week after Mr. Shokin was fired, they secured that meeting with Yuriy Sevruk.
Incorrect reports have claimed there were no open investigations at the time of Mr. Shokin’s firing.
But official case files obtained by The Hill and dated March 2016 detail open cases surrounding corruption and tax violations. The Kyiv Post, citing company officials on the record, reported Burisma was not free and clear of investigations until January 2017, only days before the inauguration of President Donald J. Trump.
“The truth is that I was forced out because I was leading a wide-ranging corruption probe into Burisma Holdings (“Burisma”), a natural gas firm active in Ukraine, and Joe Biden’s Son, Hunter Biden, was a member of the Board Of Directors,” Mr. Shokin further testified. “I assume Burisma, which was connected with gas extraction, had the support of the U.S. Vice-President Joe Biden because his son was on the Board of Directors.”
In July, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky — newly elected — told President Trump he was “knowledgable about the situation” and planned to “look into the situation,” particularly surrounding Burisma.
Democrats in the U.S. House of Representatives have used the phone conversation as a pretext to open an impeachment inquiry against President Trump. Critics say the alleged “whistleblower” complaint — which is little more than demonstrably false hearsay — is really an effort to stop the exposure of election meddling from and corruption within the Obama Administration.
“On several occasions President Poroshenko asked me to have a look at the criminal case against Burisma and consider the possibility of winding down the investigative actions in respect of this company, but I refused to close this investigation,” Mr. Shokin also stated in his testimony. “Therefore. I was forced to leave Office under direct and intense pressure from Joe Biden and the U.S. administration.”
Workers’ Wages and Salaries Largely Drive the Increase
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported personal income gained $73.5 billion, or by 0.4% in August. That’s a considerable pickup from the slightly gain in July.
The increase in personal income during August was largely driven by increases in workers’ wages and salaries, nonfarm proprietors’ income, and personal current transfer receipts.
Those were only partially offset by a decline in personal interest income (wealthy). Disposable personal income (DPI) rose $77.7 billion (0.5%) and Real DPI gained 0.4%.
However, while income gained strongly in August, Americans were saving instead of spending and spent less of their money than in July.
Personal consumption expenditures (PCE), otherwise known as consumer spending, gained only slightly by $20.1 billion (0.1%). The PCE price index gained less than 0.1% and the Core PCE — excluding food and energy — also rose 0.1%.
Personal outlays rose $22.3 billion and personal saving was $1.35 trillion in August. The personal saving rate, which is personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income, was 8.1%.
Wages, or average hourly earnings (AHE), have risen by or exceeded 3% on a seasonally adjusted annual basis (SAAR) for 13 consecutive months. Wage growth in August exceeded 3% (SAAR) for the 11th consecutive month.
The U.S. Census Bureau reported new orders for manufactured durable goods increased $0.5 billion or 0.2% to $250.7 billion in August, beating the consensus forecast. Durable goods orders are now up for three consecutive months after gaining 2.0% in July.
That’s an upward revision from 1.4% for July. In August, forecasts were looking for a low of -2.3% to a high of 1.0%. The consensus forecast was -1.2%.
New orders excluding transportation rose 0.5%, also beating the consensus forecast. Forecasts were looking for a low of -0.3% to a high of 0.6%. The consensus forecast was 0.2%.
New orders excluding defense fell 0.6%.
Fabricated metal products, which have been up four of the last five months, led the gain for August, rising $0.4 billion or 1.3% to $34.4 billion.
Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) Gains in All Regions
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) rebounded 1.6% to 107.3 in August, reversing the decline in July. Year-over-year contract signings shot up 2.5%. An index of 100 is equal to the average level of contract activity.
Forecasts were looking for a low of 0.0% to a high of 1.8%. The consensus forecast was 1.6%.
“It is very encouraging that buyers are responding to exceptionally low interest rates,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist. “The notable sales slump in the West region over recent years appears to be over. Rising demand will reaccelerate home price appreciation in the absence of more supply.”
Mr. Yun argued that historically low interest rates will affect economic growth, especially home buying, going forward. The Federal Reserve last week announced a 25 basis points cut to the federal funds rate.
“With interest rates expected to remain low, home sales are forecasted to rise in the coming months and into 2020,” Mr. Yun added. “The hope is that housing starts quickly move into higher gear to meet the higher demand.”
“Moreover, broader economic growth will strengthen from increased housing activity.”
Regional Pending Home Sales
The PHSI in the Northeast rose 1.4% to 94.3 in August and is now 0.7% higher than a year ago. In the Midwest, the index increased 0.6% to 101.7 in August, 0.2% higher than August 2018.
Pending home sales in the South increased 1.4% to an index of 124.4 in August, a 1.8% bump from last August. The index in the West grew 3.1% in August 2019 to 96.4, an increase of 8.0% from a year ago.
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