The Labor Department reported initial jobless claims rose 3,000 to a seasonally adjusted 213,000. While that slightly missed the forecast, the insured unemployment rate fell to an all-time low.
Forecasts were looking for a low 202,000 to a high of 213,000 The consensus forecast was 211,000.
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate fell to 1.1% for the week ending September 14, setting a new record low. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment fell 15,000 during the week ending September 14 was 1,650,000. The 4-week moving average fell 12,750 to 1,665,750.
The Labor Department also said no state was triggered “on” the Extended Benefits program during the week ending September 7.
The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending September 7 were in New Jersey (2.1), Puerto Rico (2.0), California (1.7), Connecticut (1.6), Pennsylvania (1.6), Alaska (1.5), Illinois (1.5), the Virgin Islands (1.4), Massachusetts (1.3), Nevada (1.3), and New York (1.3).
The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending September 14 were in California (+3,879), Georgia (+1,563), Florida (+1,530), South Carolina (+1,246), and New York (+1,048), while the largest decreases were in Arkansas (-773), Illinois (-566), Michigan (-415), Wisconsin (-232), and Massachusetts (-227).
Slightly Downward Revision to Solid Consumer Spending Offset By Exports
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) “third” estimate for second quarter (Q2) gross domestic product (GDP) in 2019 held steady and hit the consensus forecast at 2.0%.
Forecasts were looking for a low 1.9% to a high of 2.1%. The consensus forecast was 2.0%. The consensus for consumer spending was 4.7%, mirroring the second estimate, which missed by just 0.1%.
The third and final estimate for Q1 2019 GDP showed the U.S. economy grew at a solid annual rate of 3.1%.
Real gross domestic income (GDI) rose 1.8% in Q2 2019, compared with an increase of 3.2% in Q1. Current-dollar GDP gained 4.7%, or $241.5 billion to $21.34 trillion. In Q1, current-dollar GDP rose 3.9%, or $201.0 billion.
The price index for gross domestic purchases rose 2.2% after gaining 0.8% in Q1. The PCE price index rose 2.4% compared with a prior increase of 0.4%. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index rose 1.9%, compared with an increase of 1.1%.
Group of demonstrators use the issue of climate change to protest the economic system. (Photo: AdobeStock)
More than 500 scientists and professionals in related fields sent the Secretary-General of the United Nations an urgent message: “there’s no climate emergency.”
Signatories to the “European Climate Declaration” are national ambassadors from The Netherlands, the United States, French Canada, Sweden, New Zealand, the Republic Ireland, Australia, Italy, English Canada, France, Norway, Germany, Belgium, and the United Kingdom.
“There is no statistical evidence that global warming is intensifying hurricanes, floods, droughts and suchlike natural disasters, or making them more frequent,” the declaration stated. “However, CO2-mitigation measures are as damaging as they are costly. For instance, wind turbines kill birds and bats, and palm-oil plantations destroy the biodiversity of the rainforests.”
They urged the Secretary-General of the United Nations to place the Declaration on the agenda for the 74th Session of the United Nations General Assembly, which just transpired this week. Instead, the event was surrounded by doomsday predictions, protests and 16-year-old Greta Thunberg.
In the U.S., Democrats and alarmists have repeatedly claimed the Earth will suffer devastating climate events in just 12 years if the economic system is not drastically changed. That change calls for a shift from free-market capitalism to government control and central planning.
Senator Kamala Harris, D-Calif., who is running for the Democratic nomination, was stopped on the campaign trail and peppered with fears from a young climate alarmist. She feared the world would end if a Democratic candidate did not defeat President Donald Trump, a Republican.
But according to the scientists sourcing the Declaration, the current climate change models that dominate the debate are “unfit” for policy, “have many shortcomings and are not remotely plausible as policy tools.”
“The general-circulation models of climate on which international policy is at present founded are unfit for their purpose,” the Declaration states. “Therefore, it is cruel as well as imprudent to advocate the squandering of trillions on the basis of results from such immature models. Current climate policies pointlessly, grievously undermine the economic system, putting lives at risk in countries denied access to affordable, continuous electrical power.”
The scientists invited the Secretary-General of the United Nations to participate in a “constructive” debate early in 2020.
“The meeting will give effect to the sound and ancient principle no less of sound science than of natural justice that both sides should be fully and fairly heard,” they stated. “Audiatur et altera pars!”
The full letter, which challenges the idea of a “consensus” surrounding climate change, can be read below.
Your Excellencies,
There is no climate emergency.
A global network of more than 500 knowledgeable and experienced scientists and professionals in climate and related fields have the honor to address to Your Excellencies the attached European Climate Declaration, for which the signatories to this letter are the national ambassadors.
The general-circulation models of climate on which international policy is at present founded are unfit for their purpose. Therefore, it is cruel as well as imprudent to advocate the squandering of trillions on the basis of results from such immature models. Current climate policies pointlessly, grievously undermine the economic system, putting lives at risk in countries denied access to affordable, continuous electrical power.
We urge you to follow a climate policy based on sound science, realistic economics and genuine concern for those harmed by costly but unnecessary attempts at mitigation. We ask you to place the Declaration on the agenda of your imminent New York session.
We also invite you to organize with us a constructive high-level meeting between world-class scientists on both sides of the climate debate early in 2020. The meeting will give effect to the sound and ancient principle no less of sound science than of natural justice that both sides should be fully and fairly heard. Audiatur et altera pars!
Please let us know your thoughts about such a joint meeting.
Yours sincerely, ambassadors of the European Climate Declaration,
Professor Guus Berkhout – The Netherlands Professor Richard Lindzen – USA Professor Reynald Du Berger – French Canada Professor Ingemar Nordin – Sweden Terry Dunleavy – New Zealand Jim O’Brien – Rep. of Ireland Viv Forbes – Australia Professor Alberto Prestininzi – Italy Professor Jeffrey Foss – English Canada Professor Benoît Rittaud – France Morten Jødal – Norway Professor Fritz Vahrenholt – Germany Rob Lemeire – Belgium The Viscount Monckton of Brenchley – UK
Bullet points from the “European Climate Declaration” are also below.
There is no climate emergency A global network of 500 scientists and professionals has prepared this urgent message. Climate science should be less political, while climate policies should be more scientific. Scientists should openly address the uncertainties and exaggerations in their predictions of global warming, while politicians should dispassionately count the real benefits as well as the imagined costs of adaptation to global warming, and the real costs as well as the imagined benefits of mitigation.
Natural as well as anthropogenic factors cause warming The geological archive reveals that Earth’s climate has varied as long as the planet has existed, with natural cold and warm phases. The Little Ice Age ended as recently as 1850. Therefore, it is no surprise that we now are experiencing a period of warming.
Warming is far slower than predicted The world has warmed at less than half the originally-predicted rate, and at less than half the rate to be expected on the basis of net anthropogenic forcing and radiative imbalance. It tells us that we are far from understanding climate change.
Climate policy relies on inadequate models Climate models have many shortcomings and are not remotely plausible as policy tools. Moreover, they most likely exaggerate the effect of greenhouse gases such as CO2. In addition, they ignore the fact that enriching the atmosphere with CO2 is beneficial.
CO2 is plant food, the basis of all life on Earth CO2 is not a pollutant. It is essential to all life on Earth. Photosynthesis is a blessing. More CO2 is beneficial for nature, greening the Earth: additional CO2 in the air has promoted growth in global plant biomass. It is also good for agriculture, increasing the yields of crop worldwide.
Global warming has not increased natural disasters There is no statistical evidence that global warming is intensifying hurricanes, floods, droughts and suchlike natural disasters, or making them more frequent. However, CO2-mitigation measures are as damaging as they are costly. For instance, wind turbines kill birds and bats, and palm-oil plantations destroy the biodiversity of the rainforests.
Policy must respect scientific and economic realities There is no climate emergency. Therefore, there is no cause for panic and alarm. We strongly oppose the harmful and unrealistic net-zero CO2 policy proposed for 2050. If better approaches emerge, and they certainly will, we have ample time to reflect and adapt. The aim of international policy should be to provide reliable and affordable energy at all times, and throughout the world.
Trade Deal Rolls Back Tariffs for $7 Billion in U.S. Goods
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe shakes hands with U.S. President Donald Trump during the bilateral meeting at the G20 leaders summit in Hamburg, Germany July 8, 2017. (Photo: Reuters)
President Donald J. Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzō Abe put ink on phase one of a trade deal that will open markets to U.S. goods in exchange for rolling back tariffs. The two men, who announced an agreement in principle at the G7, signed the deal sitting side-by-side at the United Nations on Wednesday.
The new arrangement, which Prime Minister Abe called a “win-win,” is worth approximately $7 billion in U.S. agriculture products, including but not limited to beef, pork, cheese, wheat, corn and wine.
“We’re going to have a really great relationship, better than ever before on trade,” President Trump told reporters during a joint press conference at the United Nations. “I think it’s going to be better for Japan and better for the United States.”
U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Japanese Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi met Monday on the sidelines of the 74th Session of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA).
Japan agreed to decrease tariffs on U.S. beef from 38.5% to 9% in exchange for a rolling back of U.S. tariffs on Japanese automobiles sometime in the future.
No specific timing for the rollback of U.S. tariffs was given, though it would would bring the U.S. back into compliance with the World Trade Organization (WTO) Most Favored Nation (MFN).
A separate deal also was reached that includes commitments on digital trade. The White House said the new deal will “expand trade and substantially reduce our trade deficit.”
As People’s Pundit Daily (PPD) has previously reported, Japan is the second largest recipient of U.S. exports behind Canada. Year-to-date, the U.S. has exported $36.8 billion to Japan, though imported $72.9 billion.
President Donald J. Trump released a declassified, unredacted transcript of his telephone conversation with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy from July 25th, 2019.
New Residential Construction Report Revised Much Higher for July
The U.S. Census Bureau and Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) reported new home sales rose by a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 713,000, easily beating the forecast.
That’s a 7.1% (±20.3%) gain above the upwardly revised 666,000 figure for July, which was initially reported at 635,000. It’s 18.0% (±19.9%) above the August 2018 estimate of 604,000.
The median sales price of new houses sold in August 2019 was $328,400. The average sales price was $404,200.
The seasonally‐adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of August was 326,000. This represents a supply of 5.5 months at the current sales rate.
President Trump Unapologetically Defends National Sovereignty in Address to 74th United Nations General Assembly
President Donald J. Trump unapologetically defended national sovereignty and condemned socialism in his address to the 74th United Nations General Assembly (UNGA). The president’s speech was perhaps the best articulation of the message, Make America Great Again.
“Wise leaders always put the good of their own people and their country first. The future does not belong to globalists,” he said. “The future belongs to patriots, to sovereign and independent nations who protect their citizens, respect their neighbors and honor the differences that make each country special and unique.”
President Trump campaigned and centered his presidency on an “America First” agenda. In 2017 and 2018, his UNGA addresses also defended national sovereignty and the liberal nation-state system. That message is not well received at the globalist body of nations, who have embraced the tenets of globalism and socialism.
The president pointed once again to Venezuela as he had before to make the strongest argument against socialism, to date.
President Donald J. Trump addresses the 74th Session of the United Nations General Assembly on Tuesday, September 24, 2019. (Photo: People’s Pundit Daily)
“One of the most serious challenges our nations face is the specter of socialism. It’s the wrecker of nations and destroyer of societies,” President Trump said. “The events in Venezuela socialism and communism are not about justice, they’re not about lifting up the poor and they are certainly not about the good of the nation.”
“Socialism and communism are about one thing only: power for the ruling class.”
He repeated that “American will never be a socialist country” and pointed out socialism and communism killed an estimated 100 million people in the last century. Some estimates place the number much higher.
While touting the economic progress enjoyed by the U.S. under his administration, he told gathering of nations that “building a better future starts at home – by lifting up our citizens, honoring our histories, and standing up for our sovereignty.”
“If you want freedom, take pride in your country. If you want democracy, hold on to your sovereignty. If you want peace, love your nation.”
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index (HPI) gained 0.4% in July and 5.0% year-over-year from July 2018, beating the consensus forecasts. The previously reported 0.2% gain for June 2019 was unchanged.
Forecasts
Forecasts were looking for a low of 0.1% to a high of 0.4% and the consensus was for a gain of 0.2%. Year-over-year, forecasts ranged from a low of 4.5% to a high of 5.1% and the consensus came in at 4.6%.
Prior
Consensus Forecast
Forecast Range
Actual
M/M ∆
0.2%
0.2%
0.1% to 0.4%
0.4%
Y/Y ∆
4.8%
4.6%
4.5% to 5.1%
5.0%
Regional Monthly
For the nine census divisions, seasonally adjusted monthly house price changes from June 2019 to July 2019 ranged from 0.1% gain in the Middle Atlantic division to 1.2% gain in the Mountain division.
The 12-month changes were all positive, ranging from a gain of 3.6% in the Middle Atlantic division to a 7.6% gain in the Mountain division.
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index (HPI) NSA released earlier this morning also beat the consensus forecast.
National Home Price (HPI) NSA Index Beats Annual Forecast, 20-City Monthly Gain Steady
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price (HPI) NSA Index covering all 9 U.S. census divisions posted a 3.2% annual gain in July, beating the forecast. The 20-City Composite posted a 2.0% year-over-year gain, down slightly from 2.2%.
The lesser-cited 10-City Composite posted an annual increase of 1.6%, also down slightly from 1.9%.
Forecasts
Forecasts saw the national non-seasonally adjusted index coming in at a gain of 0.1% and a gain of 0.4% for the seasonally-adjusted index, both of which hit the mark.
However, the 20-city NSA came in higher than the 2.1% forecast.
Prior
Consensus Forecast
Forecast Range
Actual
20-city, SA – M/M
0.0%
0.1%
0.0% to 0.3%
0.1%
20-city, NSA – M/M
0.3%
0.4%
0.2% to 0.5%
0.4%
20-city, NSA – Yr/Yr
2.2%
2.1%
2.0% to 2.5%
3.2%
Regional Year-Over-Year
“Year-over-year home prices continued to gain, but at ever more modest rates,” Philip Murphy, Managing Director and Global Head of Index Governance at S&P Dow Jones Indices, said. “Charlotte surpassed Tampa to join the top three cities, and Seattle may be turning around from its recent negative streak of YOY price changes, improving from -1.3% in June to -0.06% in July.”
Phoenix, Las Vegas and Charlotte posted the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities. In July, Phoenix led the 20-city with a 5.8% year-over-year gain, followed by Las Vegas with a 4.7% gain and Charlotte closely behind with a 4.6% gain.
Seven of the 20 cities reported greater price increases in the year ending July 2019 versus the year ending June 2019.
“Overall, leadership remains in the southwest (Phoenix and Las Vegas) and southeast (Charlotte and Tampa),” Murphy added. “Other pockets of relative strength include Minneapolis, which increased its YOY gain to 4.2%, and Detroit, which is closely behind at 4.1% YOY.”
“However, the U.S. National Home Price NSA Index remained steady with a YOY price gain of 3.2%, the same as prior month.”
UPDATE
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index (HPI) gained 0.4% in July and 5.0% year-over-year from July 2018, also beating the consensus forecasts.
New DNC Qualification Criteria Attempts But Fails to Address Criticisms Over Approved Polls
Graphic concept for Democratic debates, with symbolically red donkeys instead of blue. (Photo: AdobeStock)
The Democratic National Committee (DNC) late Monday night released updated qualification criteria for the fifth debate in November. The new criteria tightens donor requirements and outlines two polling pathways to qualify.
Donations
The DNC refers to the contributions (donations) section of the qualifications criteria as the “Grassroots Fundraising Threshold”.
To qualify, candidates must have received donations from at least 165,000 unique donors and a minimum of 600 unique donors per state in at least 20 U.S. states, U.S. territories, or the District of Columbia by 11:59 P.M. on the date that marks seven days before the debate.
Candidates must submit a certification from the candidate’s campaign Treasurer by 11:00 A.M. on the day that marks six days before the date of the November debate.
That certification must provide verifiable evidence to show that the fundraising threshold has been reached. It may include verification from ActBlue or NGP VAN regarding the campaign’s fundraising.
Polling
Candidates must meet either the “Four-Poll Threshold” or the “Early State Polling Threshold” to qualify for the fifth debate. The DNC bills this as an easing of the rules, but didn’t address the criticism surrounding the list of approved pollsters.
Four-Poll Threshold
The candidates must receive 3% or more support in at least four polls. That can be a combination of national polls or early state polls in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and/or Nevada.
However, each one of the four polls must be from different “Qualifying Poll Sponsors,” or if by the same Qualifying Poll Sponsor, must be in different geographical areas.
Early State Polling Threshold
The candidate must receive 5% or more support in two single-state polls in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and/or Nevada that meet the DNC’s “Qualifying Poll Criteria.” The two qualifying polls may be in the same or different geographical areas and from the same or different Qualifying Poll Sponsors.
Qualifying Poll Criteria
The following was taken directly from the DNC press release. People’s Pundit Daily (PPD) wanted to report the controversial criteria verbatim.
Each poll must be sponsored by one of the following 15 entities or pairs of entities (“Qualifying Poll Sponsors”): Associated Press; ABC News/Washington Post; CBS News/YouGov; CNN; Des Moines Register; Fox News; Monmouth University; National Public Radio; NBC News/Wall Street Journal; NBC News/Marist; New York Times; Quinnipiac University; University of New Hampshire; USA Today/Suffolk University; Winthrop University. For individual entities that are included only in Qualifying Poll Sponsor pairs but are not listed individually, independent polling by such individual entities or polling conducted in new partnerships with such individual entities shall not meet the Qualifying Poll Criteria. The DNC reserves the right to add a Nevada-specific poll sponsor to this list in the near future.
Each poll must be publicly released between September 13, 2019 and 11:59 P.M. on the date that marks seven days before the date of the November debate.
Each poll’s candidate support question must have been conducted by reading or presenting a list of Democratic presidential primary candidates to respondents. Poll questions using an open-ended or un-aided question to gauge presidential primary support will not count.
Each polling result must be the top-line number listed in the original public release from the approved Qualifying Poll Sponsor, whether or not it is a rounded or weighted number.
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