Watch Live: President Donald J. Trump addresses the 74th Session of the United Nations General Assembly on Tuesday, September 24, 2019.
The video will begin at 10:15 AM EDT.
Watch Live: President Donald J. Trump addresses
On Monday, First Lady Melania Trump rang the ceremonial opening bell at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). The first lady was accompanied by close to a dozen children from the United Nations International School celebrating the first anniversary of her “BE BEST” initiative.
According to the Office of the First Lady, the mission of BE BEST is to “focus on some of the major issues facing children today, with the goal of encouraging children to BE BEST in their individual paths, while also teaching them the importance of social, emotional, and physical health.”
The initiative outlines three main pillars: well-being, online safety, and opioid abuse.
While the NYSE is well-accustomed to greeting visiting dignitaries and celebrities, this event stands out. The first lady was greeted with a thunderous ovation from the exchange community, rivaling any visit in recent memory for most on the floor.
The last sitting First Lady of the United States to visit the NYSE during trading hours was Laura Bush, who rang closing bell on September 18, 2006.
Brokers with close to 40 years experience at the exchange could not remember a sitting first lady ringing the ceremonial opening bell and the NYSE has no documented record of such.
Street Vision contributed to this report.
First Lady Melania Trump rang the ceremonial
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose from -0.41 in July in at +0.10 in August, indicating economic growth led by production (manufacturing).
Forecasters were looking for a low of -0.20 to a high of 0.00. The consensus forecast was -0.06.
All four broad categories increased from July, though three of the four still made negative contributions to the index in August. The index’s three-month moving average (CFNAI-MA3) rose to –0.06 in August from –0.14 in July.
The CFNAI Diffusion Index, which is also a three-month moving average, gained to –0.12 from –0.20. Forty-four (44) of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions, while 41 made negative contributions.
Fifty-two (52) indicators improved from July to August, while 30 indicators deteriorated and three were unchanged. Of the indicators that improved, 14 still made negative contributions.
Production-related indicators added +0.16 to the CFNAI in August, up from –0.26 in July. Industrial production rose 0.6% in August after declining 0.2% in July.
However, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Index (PMI) fell to 49.1 in August from 51.2 in July, the lowest level since 2016. The contribution of the sales, orders, and inventories category to the CFNAI moved up to –0.02 in August from –0.07 in July.
The CFNAI includes data available as of September 19, 2019. Data for 51 of the 85 indicators in August had been published. Estimates were used in data not available.
The July monthly index value was revised to –0.41 from an initial estimate of –0.36, and the June monthly index value was revised to +0.13 from last month’s estimate of +0.03.
Revisions to the monthly index were due to two main factors: revisions in previously published data and differences between the estimates of previously unavailable data and subsequently published data.
The revisions to both the July and June monthly index values were primarily due to the latter.
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)
The Republican National Committee (RNC) tripled the Democratic National Committee (DNC) in fundraising last month, $23.5 million to $7.9 million, the largest off-cycle August haul on record for either national party committee.
According to filings to the Federal Election Commission (FEC), the RNC had $53.8 million cash on hand at the close of the reporting period, juxtaposed to just $8.2 million for the DNC.
| Committee | August | C-o-H | Debt | Cycle To Date |
| RNC | $23.5M | $53.8M | $0M | $141.4M |
| DNC | $7.9M | $8.2M | $7.3M | $59.5M |
“Thanks to boycotts from Hollywood liberals and the Castro brothers doxxing private citizens who support President Trump, the RNC’s fundraising hit record levels in August,” RNC Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel said in a statement.
The RNC reported no debt to the FEC. The DNC reported $7.3 million in debts and obligations owed by the committee.
“The more Democrats demonize President Trump and his supporters, the more boots we can put on the ground to re-elect him,” Chairwoman McDaniel added. “Between the President’s accomplishments and our grassroots infrastructure, Republicans are going to be unstoppable in 2020!”
The DNC did not provide a comment for the article.
The RNC tripled the DNC in fundraising
Senator Cory Booker, D-N.J., might be the next presidential hopeful to exit the 2020. A weaker-than-expected fundraising total for the month of September has put the campaign on the brink.
In the memo, campaign manager Addisu Demissie pleaded with supporters for money and warned that following a weaker than expected cash haul during the early part of September, “the next 10 days will determine whether Cory Booker can stay in this race.”
“Here’s the real talk: We have reached a critical moment, and time is running out,” the memo states. “It’s now or never: The next 10 days will determine whether Cory Booker can stay in this race and compete to win the nomination.”
A series of tweets from the candidate’s social media account also made a plea for money, warning it wasn’t an “end-of-quarter stunt” but a last-ditch effort before calling it quits.
“This isn’t an end-of-quarter stunt,” the tweet read. “This is a real, unvarnished look under the hood of our campaign at a level of transparency unprecedented in presidential politics.
The U.S. Senator from New Jersey announced his bid for the White House on February 1 and has built ground game operations in the first two early caucus and primary states. Still, he has struggled in the PPD Weekly Average of 2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination Polls.
He currently sits in 7th place and polls at just 2.8%.
A fundraising analysis by People’s Pundit Daily (PPD) shows Senator Booker raised roughly $4.5 million in from April-June, far less than the $7.9 million in the first quarter (Q1) following his announcement. Only $1.2 million were from “low-dollar” contributions and the campaign’s burn rate was nearly 60%.
By comparison, the Trump Campaign and Republican National Committee (RNC) joint fundraising efforts raised $105 million in Q2. A $54 million fundraising haul came from the campaign and committees, while the RNC raised $51 million. The average donation to the campaign was just $34.26.
Demissie warned that the campaign can only continue at its current size. It needs more funding to grow.
“While we invested early in building an outstanding organization in our Newark headquarters and the February early states, other campaigns have, in recent weeks, surpassed us in scale and begun spending on paid persuasion efforts online and on television,” the memo adds.
“Cory 2020 has the resources necessary to continue on as we are now for quite some time, but that is not enough.”
The once crowded 2020 Democratic field has already begun to winnow down even before the first votes were cast in Iowa and New Hampshire.
This week, New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio ended his campaign, echoing other failed candidates such as Senator Kirsten Gillibrand, D-N.Y., who ended her bid in late August. Like Senator Gillibrand, Mayor de Blasio conceded 2020 was clearly not his time.
“Here’s the bottom line: Cory 2020 needs to raise an additional $1.7 million by September 30 to be in a position to build the organization necessary to continue competing for the nomination,” Demissie conceded in the memo. “Without a fundraising surge to close out this quarter, we do not see a legitimate long-term path forward.”
To put that in context, Cory 2020 only raised $1.4 million in the final ten days of March after entering the race in February.
Cory Booker might be the next presidential
There are many reasons why not to waste your time watching the Democratic debates, only a few of which I’ll enumerate here. Paramount among the reasons is that debates are irrelevant anachronisms.
As a winning political campaign consultant, I’ve even advised my candidates to skip attending debates altogether, knowing there would be no consequence as long as the campaign was attending to the work that really matters.
Those candidates all won, by the way.
Alarmingly-precise voter data-targeting, the ability to instantaneously place political “info-bytes” into people’s hands digitally, and countless modern voter-contact techniques have rendered televised debates “a thing of the past” for impacting election outcomes.
In truth, debates haven’t been pivotal to campaign outcomes for decades. Today, debates “ratify” existing viewpoints, they don’t change them. Fact: If a particular candidate is deemed to have “won” a debate, it results in a very small polling “bump.” which dissipates a few days later.
In short, they have no impact.
So, why do TV networks still host them? And why do candidates still attend them?
Answer: The TV cable channels want sound-bites for their news shows, and hoped-for ratings to help sell advertising. The candidates believe they can increase their name identification, with the hope it translates into better fundraising opportunities, or a Cabinet appointment.
But edifying voters is not a real goal of the debate process or of the candidates.
If it was, I could save debate-watchers a lot of time. To understand the 2020 Democrat candidates, just read “Das Kapital” and the “Communist Manifesto.” It’s all in there.
Think I’m kidding? Let me tell you a story.
In the summer of 2016, while driving across NYC’s George Washington Bridge, I turned on the car radio just in time to catch a Leftist accidentally telling the truth. A PBS host was interviewing the Chairwoman of the American Communist Party about why the Communists weren’t fielding a candidate in 2016. Shocking, only to the unenlightened, the Chairwoman replied candidly:
“Because the Communist Party believes our goals are well represented in the Democrat Party platform this year.”
The Democratic Party has lurched even further to the Left since then. If the Chairwoman of the American Communist Party was happy with Democrats in 2016, she’ll likely want the two parties to formally “merge” in 2020.
Most alarming is that this year’s herd of Democratic candidates wouldn’t even understand what’s wrong with that.
With Democratic candidates now openly espousing socialism, detesting capitalism, making mocking references to God, despising things intrinsically American, and either willingly or unwittingly embracing the basic tenets of communism, I have a recommendation for the TV hosts of the next Democrat debate:
Ask each candidate to list the top 10 goals in Karl Marx’s “Communist Manifesto” and explain how those goals differ from their own campaign positions?
The stammering, sputtering responses that ensue will certainly be both entertaining and edifying.
Now THAT would be a Democratic debate worth watching.
There are many reasons why not to
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported existing home sales rose 1.3% in August to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.49 million, beating the consensus forecast for the second straight month. Overall existing home sales are now up 2.6% from a year ago.
The forecasts ranged from a low of 5.300 million to a high of 5.420 million. The consensus forecast was looking for 5.380 million.
“As expected, buyers are finding it hard to resist the current rates,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist. “The desire to take advantage of these promising conditions is leading more buyers to the market.”
The median existing-home price for all housing types in August gained 4.7% year-over-year to $278,200, up from $265,600. The increase in August marks the 90th straight month of year-over-year gains for prices.
“Sales are up, but inventory numbers remain low and are thereby pushing up home prices,” Mr. Yun added. “Homebuilders need to ramp up new housing, as the failure to increase construction will put home prices in danger of increasing at a faster pace than income.”
Total housing inventory fell to 1.86 million, down from 1.90 million existing-homes available for sale in July and marking a 2.6% decrease from 1.91 million one year ago. Unsold inventory is at a 4.1-month supply at the current sales pace, down from 4.2 months in July and from the 4.3-month supply recorded in August 2018.
Properties typically remained on the market for 31 days in August, up from 29 days in July and in August of 2018. Forty-nine percent of homes sold in August were on the market for less than a month.
Existing home sales in the Northeast rose 7.6% to an annual rate of 710,000 and 1.4% year-over-year. The median price was $303,500, down 0.3% from August 2018.
In the Midwest, existing home sales gained 3.1% to an annual rate of 1.31 million, a gain of 2.3% from August 2018. The median price was $220,000, a 6.6% increase from a year ago.
Existing home sales in the South inched up 0.9% to an annual rate of 2.33 million in August and 3.6% from a year ago. The median price was $240,300, a gain of 5.4% from one year ago.
In the West, existing home sales fell 3.4% to an annual rate of 1.14 million in August, though they’re still 1.8% higher than a year ago. The median price was $415,900, up 5.7% from August 2018.
Existing home sales rose 1.3% in August
The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey headline index came in at a better-than-expected 12.0, indicating solid growth. That’s a decline of 5 points but still solid and a beat.
The forecasts ranged from a low of 9.0 to a high of 15.5. The consensus forecast was looking for 11.0.
More than 28% of the firms indicate an increase in activity and only 16% reported an easing. The index for current new orders barely declined from 25.8 in August to 24.8 in September.
Mid-Atlantic manufacturing firms also reported an overall improvement in sector employment in September. Nearly 25% reported higher employment, while just 9% reported lower employment.
The employment index rose 12 points and the average workweek index rose 6 points.
While the diffusion index for future general activity fell 12 points to 20.8, more than 37% of the firms still expect increases in activity over the next six months, and only 16% expect declines.
The future new orders index fell 9 points and the future shipments index fell 2 points. But firms remain optimistic about future hiring and the future employment index rose 6 points.
Regional manufacturing firms also expect prices to move higher in the next six months: The future prices paid index rose 10 points and the future prices received index gained 9 points.
Overall, the regional report offers far more positive than negative news. It is in line with the surprisingly strong report on industrial production this week from the Federal Reserve.
industrial production rose 0.6% in August after declining 0.1% in July, easily beating the forecast range and consensus. Forecasts for the total index ranged from a low of -0.5% to a high of 0.6%.
The consensus forecast was just 0.2% and manufacturing output more than recovered from the losses in July, gaining 0.5%. The data is enough for a cautious suggestion that the manufacturing slowdown might be behind us.
The Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey showed firms are adding employees, unfilled orders are increasing and supplier delivery times are slowing. All of that data indicates solid output.
The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Business Outlook
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported the U.S. current-account deficit narrowed by $8.0 billion in the second quarter (Q2) 2019, or 5.9% to $128.2 billion. The Q2 deficit was 2.4% of current dollar gross domestic product (GD), down from 2.6% in Q1.
The forecasts ranged from a low of $-135.2 billion to a high of $-118.0 billion. The consensus forecast was looking for $-125.8 billion.
The U.S. current account deficit is the combined balances on trade in goods and services and income flows between U.S. residents and residents of other countries.
The narrowing of the current account deficit in Q2 largely reflects an increasing surplus on primary income, the BEA said.
Exports of goods and services to — and income received from — foreign residents was up $2.1 billion to $943.0 billion. Imports of goods and services from — and income paid to — foreign residents fell $5.9 billion to $1.07 trillion.
The U.S. current-account deficit was revised for Q1 2019 to $136.2 billion.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported the
The Labor Department reported initial jobless claims for the week ending September 14 came in at a seasonally adjusted 208,000, beating the forecast. The 4-week moving average declined 750 to 212,250.
The forecasts ranged from a low of 203,000 to a high of 215,000. The consensus forecast was looking for a gain to 215,000.
In lagging data, the advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate remained very low at 1.2% for the week ending September 7. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment for the week ending September 7 fell to 1,661,000, a decline of 13,000. The 4-week moving average came in at 1,677,500, a decline of 3,750.
The Labor Department said no state was triggered “on” the Extended Benefits program during the week ending August 31.
The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending August 31 were in New Jersey (2.3), Puerto Rico (2.0), Connecticut (1.8), Pennsylvania (1.7), California (1.6), Alaska (1.5), Massachusetts (1.5), New York (1.4), Rhode Island (1.4), and the Virgin Islands (1.4).
The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending September 7 were in Arkansas (+668), Massachusetts (+230), Puerto Rico (+212), Minnesota (+197), and Washington (+116), while the largest decreases were in Illinois (-3,924), California (-3,587), New York (-3,547), Texas (-1,548), and Pennsylvania (-1,352).
The Labor Department reported initial jobless claims
