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Elections

On Tuesday, Senator Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., announced he will not challenge Republican West Virginia Governor Jim Justice. Senator Manchin, who was re-elected to serve another six-year term in 2018, served as governor from 2005 to 2010.

Governor Justice, who initially ran for the mansion in the Mountain State as a Democrat and was endorsed by Senator Manchin, switched to the Republican Party. He faces multiple primary challengers and has been criticized for being a “part-time” governor and not spending enough time in the state capital.

Two recent polls — one internal and one independent — found Governor Justice his Republican primary opponents, Commerce Department Secretary Woody Thrasher and former Berkeley County delegate Mike Folk. However, in one hypothetical match-up against Senator Manchin, the governor trails 49% to 39% with 12% undecided.

“Serving as the Governor of this state was the greatest honor of my life,” Senator Manchin said in a statement. “Nothing made my heart swell with pride more than bragging about the wonderful state I represented.”

“I have always said that ‘public service is not self-service.’ So, when considering whether to run for Governor, I couldn’t focus just on which job I enjoyed the most, but on where I could be the most effective for the Mountain State,” he added. “Ultimately, I believe my role as U.S. Senator allows me to position our state for success for the rest of this century.”

Senator Manchin is the Ranking Member on the Energy and Natural Resources Committee, and is pushing the Republican-controlled U.S. Senate to debate and pass energy technology bills.

Seen as one of the last few true moderate Democrats in the U.S. Senate, he is generally pro-business, pro-energy and has reached across the aisle to work with President Donald Trump on several issues.

As a result of this cooperation and the Trump Administration’s economic policy, West Virginia led the nation in economic growth for the first quarter (Q1) 2019. Gross domestic product (GDP) in the state rose 5.2% in Q1 2019, while Hawaii came in dead last at 1.2%.

By comparison, GDP in the state grew by just 1.9% in Q4 2016 under Barack Obama.

The Mountain State has become markedly more Republican since the Obama-era. President Trump clobbered Hillary Clinton in 2016, 68.50% to 26.43%. Senator Manchin is likely the only Democratic candidate capable of holding the seat.

Washington, D.C. – U.S. Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV) released the following statement on his decision to stay in the U.S. Senate.

“Anyone who knows me, knows that I am most proud of two things – my family and the State of West Virginia. Our state is patriotic, strong, and independent, which are characteristics I have always promoted during my time in public service.

“When I first decided to run for elected office in 1982, it was after a conversation with my father. I told him I disagreed with the actions of an elected official. My father said, “If you do not agree with his approach, then get involved and change the dialogue.” I did this by serving in the House of Delegates and the State Senate before my election as Secretary of State and then Governor of West Virginia – the best job I have ever had.

“Those who know me know how much I loved being the Governor of West Virginia. I worked the daylights out of that job. I couldn’t wait to wake up in the Governor’s Mansion in the morning, and I didn’t want to go to bed at night, because there was always more that I could do for our state. And that is what it takes to be an effective Governor: relentless effort. Working together, all of us changed the culture of this state from CAN’T DO to DONE! Attitudes changed, our financial outlook changed, and more importantly, we stood tall in what we accomplished: creating good paying jobs, improving West Virginia’s finances, and making the state competitive again. Serving as the Governor of this state was the greatest honor of my life. Nothing made my heart swell with pride more than bragging about the wonderful state I represented.

“However, in 2010, we lost West Virginia’s beloved U.S. Senator Robert C. Byrd, a legacy to West Virginia and a legacy to the U.S. Senate. Again, people from both sides of the aisle reached out to me to step up to the Senate, to carry the torch Senator Byrd had lit so long ago. That decision changed my life in ways I never imagined, and I have been honored by West Virginians to be elected as their Senator in 2010, 2012, and most recently in 2018.

“The Senate, as envisioned by our Founders, is the greatest deliberative body in the world, and, when it is at its best, Senators can transform the lives of people across America for the better. Whether that means protecting those with pre-existing conditions, ensuring healthcare and pensions for our miners, or building the roads and bridges, and broadband infrastructure that make our country competitive, we can make a difference here.

“I have always said that “public service is not self-service.” So, when considering whether to run for Governor, I couldn’t focus just on which job I enjoyed the most, but on where I could be the most effective for the Mountain State.

“Ultimately, I believe my role as U.S. Senator allows me to position our state for success for the rest of this century. As the top Democrat and Ranking Member on the Energy and Natural Resources Committee, I am going to push the Senate to take up and pass energy technology bills that invest in all-of-the-above energy that will keep our country as the world economic leader. From advanced nuclear to renewables to carbon capture utilization and storage, we are going to build an energy base that protects jobs, keeps prices low, and recognizes the reality of climate change. Not only that, I am going to do everything in my power to make sure that those advanced technologies are manufactured and deployed in West Virginia.

“Beyond energy, we will vote on crucial issues, such as protecting health care for hundreds of thousands of West Virginians, finding a tough but fair pathway forward on immigration, protecting the pensions of our hardworking miners, getting our financial house in order and many other pressing issues. As a member of the Appropriations Committee I will make sure that West Virginia gets its fair share of federal resources. On the Armed Services and Veterans Affairs Committee I will keep our military strong and honor all of those who serve. I am not beholden to the far left or the far right, and I will use my vote and my voice to bring commonsense, West Virginia values to these debates. As I have done since coming to Washington, I will work with the President to accomplish what best serves our state and our country and I will speak truth to power when I don’t agree with the path the President has chosen to take —that is what West Virginians elected me to do!

“Our state is blessed with the resources and people to accomplish anything, and I am going to use every day I have left in the Senate to make sure West Virginians have that chance. I am grateful to be a public servant from West Virginia, and I can’t wait to continue fighting to make a difference as their United States Senator.”

On Tuesday, Senator Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., announced

Economy

Manufacturing Contracted in August Amid U.S.-China Trade Fears

Manufacturing industry production concept, depicting factory production on a conveyor belt with factory operational workers in uniform. (Photo: AdobeStock)
Manufacturing industry production concept, depicting factory production on a conveyor belt with factory operational workers in uniform. (Photo: AdobeStock)

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Index (PMI) declined to 49.1, down from 51.2 in July. That’s below the consensus forecast and the lowest level since January 2016, when the PMI registered at 48.

PriorConsensus ForecastForecast RangeActual
ISM Manufacturing Index (PMI)51.2 51.3 50.5  to 53.0 49.1 

This is the first monthly contraction for the PMI since August 2016, when it registered at 49.6. This ends a 35-month expansion period, during which the composite index averaged 56.5%.

“Respondents expressed slightly more concern about U.S.-China trade turbulence, but trade remains the most significant issue, indicated by the strong contraction in new export orders,” Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., Chair of the ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee, said.

“Respondents continued to note supply chain adjustments as a result of moving manufacturing from China,” he added. “Overall, sentiment this month declined and reached its lowest level in 2019.”

However, while the reading will fuel recent media cheerleading for a recession, it is far from supported by historical data.

A PMI above 42.9% over a prolonged period of time generally indicates an expansion of the U.S. economy. As a result, the dip in the August PMI still indicates growth for the 124th consecutive month in the overall economy.

The past relationship between the PMI and the overall economy indicates that the PMI for August (49.1%) corresponds to a 1.8-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis,” Mr. Fiore noted.

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing

Economy

Total Construction Spending Down 2.7% Year-Over-Year

The U.S. Census Bureau estimated total construction spending at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,288.8 billion, or 0.1% (±1.3%) above the upwardly revised June estimate of $1,288.1 billion. Construction spending for July is 2.7% (±1.6%) below the July 2018 estimate of $1,324.8 billion.

Monthly forecasts ranged from a low of 0.2% to a high of 0.7%, with the consensus forecast coming in at 0.3%.

Construction Spending (July)PriorRevisedConsensus ForecastForecast RangeActual
M/M ∆-1.3%-0.70.3%0.2% to 0.7%0.1%
Y/Y ∆-2.1%

During the first seven months of this year, construction spending amounted to $733.8 billion, 2.1 percent (±1.2 percent) below the $749.9 billion for the same period in 2018.

Private Construction

Spending on private construction was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $963.1 billion, down 0.1% (±0.7%)* from the revised June estimate of $963.7 billion.

Residential construction was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $506.7 billion in July, up 0.6% (±1.3%)* from the revised June estimate of $503.5 billion.

Nonresidential construction was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $456.4 billion in July, down 0.8% (±0.7%) from the revised June estimate of $460.2 billion.

Public Construction

In July, the estimated seasonally adjusted annual rate of public construction spending was $325.7 billion, or 0.4% (±2.5%)* higher than the revised June estimate of $324.3 billion.

Educational construction was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $73.3 billion, or 1.6% (±2.8%)* higher than the revised June estimate of $72.1 billion.

Highway construction was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $97.0 billion, down 2.7% (±6.4%)* from the revised June estimate of $99.7 billion.

*The 90 percent confidence interval includes zero. There is insufficient evidence to conclude that the actual change is different from zero.

Total construction spending at a seasonally adjusted

US

ECMWF (Euro), GFS, HWRF Models for September 3 at 4:00AM EST

On Tuesday, the ECMWF (Euro), GFS, and HWRF models continue to forecast Hurricane Dorian offshore but dangerously close to the east coast of the U.S. from Florida to North Carolina during the next 3 days or so.

UPDATE: Hurricane Dorian has been downgraded to a Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Maximum sustained winds are 110 mph (175 km/h) and minimum central pressure has risen to 955 mb (28.20 inches). Dorian is now moving northwest at 2 mph.

A drop in pressure typically indicates a storm is strengthening, while an increase indicates weakening.

ORIGINAL ARTICLE

The above forecasts — generated via Tropical Tidbits — include the ECMWF (Euro) and GFS over a 240-hour period beginning at September 3, 2019 at 4:00 AM EST. The HWRF (Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting Model), which until Monday did forecast landfall at Cape Canaveral, covers a 126-hour period.

Hurricane Dorian has been downgraded to a Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Maximum sustained winds are 120 mph 195 km/h. The estimated minimum central pressure has risen to 950 mb (28.05), up from 922 mb (27.23 inches) on Sunday, 916 mb (27.05 inches) on Monday and 911 mb on Sunday.

A drop in pressure typically indicates a storm is strengthening, while an increase typically indicates weakening.

The weakening but still major hurricane was stationary for much of Monday. The storm is caught in weak steering currents between high pressure ridges to its east and northwest, and a trough to its north.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) said the “weak flow should result in a very slow and likely erratic northwest turn through at least early Tuesday.”

The models generally agree the ridge to the east and trough to the north will amplify shortly thereafter, resulting in Dorian picking up speed headed north on Wednesday and to the northeast on Thursday and Friday.

D: Tropical Depression – wind speed less than 39 MPH
S: Tropical Storm – wind speed between 39 MPH and 73 MPH
H: Hurricane – wind speed between 74 MPH and 110 MPH
M: Major Hurricane – wind speed greater than 110 MPH

The NHC track forecast is largely an update of the previous forecast and it is in good agreement with the various consensus models.

Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds are expected along portions of the east coasts of Florida, Georgia and South Carolina, regardless of the storm’s center. The NHC warned water levels could begin to rise “well in advance of the arrival of strong winds.” The risk of life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force winds continues to increase along the coast of North Carolina.

Hurricane Dorian has claimed at least 5 lives in the Bahamas. That number is expected to rise significantly.

The ECMWF (Euro), GFS, and HWRF models

US

ECMWF (Euro), GFS, HWRF Models for September 2 At 8:30AM EST

UPDATE: Hurricane Dorian has been downgraded to a Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Maximum sustained winds are 155 mph (250 km/h), down from 165 mph from this morning.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 922 mb (27.23 inches), up slightly from 916 mb (27.05 inches) this morning and 911 mb on Sunday.

Satellite imagery does appear to show the beginning of the forecasted turn North, Northwest.

ORIGINAL

On Monday, the ECMWF (Euro), GFS, and HWRF forecast models show the track for Hurricane Dorian just off the east coast of Florida, though uncertainty over the impact to the Southeastern U.S. remains.

The above forecasts — generated via Tropical Tidbits — include the ECMWF (Euro) and GFS over a 240-hour period beginning at September 2, 2019 at 8:30 AM EST. The HWRF (Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting Model), which until today did forecast landfall at Cape Canaveral, covers a 126-hour period.

On Sunday, Dorian was upgraded to a Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, and is now packing maximum sustained winds near 165 mph (275 km/h) with higher gusts upwards of 200 mph. Dorian wreaked havoc over the Abaco Islands on Sunday packing maximum sustained winds of 185 mph with gusts over 200 mph, upwards of 220 mph.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami, Florida, said steering currents have weakened. As a result, Hurricane Dorian has stalled and almost come to a standstill over eastern Grand Bahama Island, moving west near 1 mph (2 km/h).

A slow westward to west-northwestward motion is forecast during the next day before making a gradual turn toward the northwest and north.

D: Tropical Depression – wind speed less than 39 MPH
S: Tropical Storm – wind speed between 39 MPH and 73 MPH
H: Hurricane – wind speed between 74 MPH and 110 MPH
M: Major Hurricane – wind speed greater than 110 MPH

Hurricane Dorian will continue to have a catastrophic impact on Grand Bahama Island through much of today and tonight. The eye expanded to near 20 nautical miles and the storm will move dangerously close to the east coast of Florida east tonight through Wednesday evening.

A slight deviation to the west of the official NHC forecast — approximately 20-30 miles — would result in the core of Dorian near or over the coast. To put that in perspective, the average track error for forecasting models is 70 miles.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 916 mb (27.05 inches), up slightly from 911 mb on Sunday.

A drop in pressure typically indicates a storm is strengthening, while an increase typically indicates weakening. The eye and the entire storm will expand as it weakens, as well. While a weakening may sound like positive news, that expansion increases the likelihood of strong winds and dangerous storm surge along the coasts of Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina later this week.

Earliest Reasonable Arrival Time: the primary graphic, which identifies the time window that users at individual locations can safely assume will be free from tropical-storm-force winds. Specifically, this is the time before which there is no more than a 1-in-10 (10 percent) chance of seeing the onset of sustained tropical-storm-force winds – the period during which preparations should ideally be completed for those with a low tolerance for risk.

Hurricane Dorian stalled over Grand Bahama Island

US

On Saturday and Sunday, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis urged “we cannot let our guard down” on Hurricane Dorian, which now packs maximum sustained winds of 175-180 mph. Gusts now exceed 200 mph as the storm prepares to wreck havoc on the Abaco Islands and the Northwest Bahamas.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami, Florida, said catastrophic storm surge of 18 to 23 feet from will affect the Abaco Islands during the next several hours. It is likely to be the most powerful storm on record to hit the Bahamas.

Storm surge, hurricane watches and tropical storm warnings are now in effect for portions of the eastern coast of Florida. The NHC said life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds remain possible along parts of the east coast through mid-week.

A slight deviation to the west of the official NHC forecast — approximately 20-30 miles — would result in the core of Dorian near or over the coast. To put that in perspective, the average track error for forecasting models is 70 miles.

“Mandatory evacuation orders have now been issued for coastal areas (Zones A and B) of Palm Beach County and Martin County,” Governor DeSantis tweeted on Sunday. “If you live in these areas, heed the warning and listen to your local officials. This is a dangerous hurricane. Your safety is paramount.”

Hurricane Dorian is now a Category 5 storm on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Pressure dropped from 925 mb measured this morning to 913 mb. Falling pressure indicates a strengthening storm.

D: Tropical Depression – wind speed less than 39 MPH
S: Tropical Storm – wind speed between 39 MPH and 73 MPH
H: Hurricane – wind speed between 74 MPH and 110 MPH
M: Major Hurricane – wind speed greater than 110 MPH

“Hurricane Dorian is continuing to show us how unpredictable it can be,” said DEM Director Jared Moskowitz on Saturday morning. “It is vital that we continue to be prepared, that’s why we are continuing to work closely with our federal and local partners to stage and deploy resources to areas that may be impacted.”

The prolonged and catastrophic conditions are likely to set in on Grand Bahama Island later today and tonight.

ECMWF (Euro), GFS, HWRF Models for September 1 At 8AM EST

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis urged "we cannot

US

ECMWF (Euro), GFS, HWRF Models for September 1 At 8AM EST

UPDATE: Hurricane Dorian Stalls Over Grand Bahama Island, Forecasts Dangerously Close to Florida [ECMWF (Euro) + GFS + HWRF]

On Sunday, the ECMWF (Euro), GFS, and HWRF forecast models for Hurricane Dorian shifted west, as uncertainty impacting the Southeastern U.S. remains. Dorian has been upgraded to a Category 5 hurricane packing maximum sustained winds near 160 mph (260 km/h) with higher gusts.

UPDATE: Hurricane Dorian is now packing maximum sustained winds of 180 mph with gusts over 200 mph as it approaches the Abaco Islands and the Northwest Bahamas.

The above forecasts include the ECMWF (Euro), GFS, and HWRF (Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting Model) over a 240-hour period beginning at September 1, 2019 at 8:00 AM EST.

Unlike Saturday, the new ECMWF track forecasts the storm will travel farther to the west through the next 48 hours, more-so than other models.

As a result, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami, Florida, has updated its official track forecast to represent a shift slightly west during that period. In 2 to 4 days, Hurricane Dorian should turn northward in response to a trough over the eastern United States.

“By the end of the period, the flow on the south side of the trough should cause the cyclone to move northeastward near the Carolinas,” the NHC said in the forecast discussion.

D: Tropical Depression – wind speed less than 39 MPH
S: Tropical Storm – wind speed between 39 MPH and 73 MPH
H: Hurricane – wind speed between 74 MPH and 110 MPH
M: Major Hurricane – wind speed greater than 110 MPH

The westward shift to the NHC track within the first 48 hours resulted in a change from a Tropical Storm Watch to a Tropical Storm Warning for a portion of the Florida east coast. Although the official NHC track forecast does not show a Florida landfall — though others to include the HWRF do — the NHC said it is still “a distinct possibility.”

Devastating hurricane conditions are expected in the Abacos Islands very soon and they will spread across Grand Bahama Island later today.

The latest minimum central pressure just reported by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft was 927 mb (27.37 inches), a drop from 944 mb (27.88 inches) on Saturday. A drop in pressure typically indicates a storm is strengthening, while an increase typically indicates weakening.

Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale

The below information is credited to the National Hurricane Center and Central Pacific Hurricane Center. The conceptual animation illustrating the wind damage associated with increasing hurricane intensity is courtesy of The COMET Program.

The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale is a 1 to 5 rating system based on a hurricane’s sustained wind speed. This scale estimates potential property damage. Hurricanes reaching Category 3 and higher are considered major hurricanes because of their potential for significant loss of life and damage. Category 1 and 2 storms are still dangerous and require preventative measures.

In the western North Pacific, the term “super typhoon” is used for tropical cyclones with sustained winds exceeding 150 mph.

CategorySustained WindsTypes of Damage Due to Hurricane Winds
174-95 mph
64-82 kt
119-153 km/h		Very dangerous winds will produce some damage: Well-constructed frame homes could have damage to roof, shingles, vinyl siding and gutters. Large branches of trees will snap and shallowly rooted trees may be toppled. Extensive damage to power lines and poles likely will result in power outages that could last a few to several days.
296-110 mph
83-95 kt
154-177 km/h		Extremely dangerous winds will cause extensive damage: Well-constructed frame homes could sustain major roof and siding damage. Many shallowly rooted trees will be snapped or uprooted and block numerous roads. Near-total power loss is expected with outages that could last from several days to weeks.
3
(major)		111-129 mph
96-112 kt
178-208 km/h		Devastating damage will occur: Well-built framed homes may incur major damage or removal of roof decking and gable ends. Many trees will be snapped or uprooted, blocking numerous roads. Electricity and water will be unavailable for several days to weeks after the storm passes.
4
(major)		130-156 mph
113-136 kt
209-251 km/h		Catastrophic damage will occur: Well-built framed homes can sustain severe damage with loss of most of the roof structure and/or some exterior walls. Most trees will be snapped or uprooted and power poles downed. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.
5
(major)		157 mph or higher
137 kt or higher
252 km/h or higher		Catastrophic damage will occur: A high percentage of framed homes will be destroyed, with total roof failure and wall collapse. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last for weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.

On Sunday, the ECMWF (Euro), GFS, and

US

ECMWF (Euro), GFS, HWRF Models For August 31 At 9AM EST

UPDATE: Hurricane Dorian Upgraded to Category 5, Forecasts Shift West [ECMWF (Euro) + GFS + HWRF]

On Saturday, the ECMWF (Euro), GFS, and HWRF models forecast Hurricane Dorian to shift east, though uncertainty over the impact to Florida remains. Dorian is currently a Category 4 hurricane packing maximum sustained winds near 145 mph (225 km/h) with higher gusts.

The above forecasts include the ECMWF (Euro), GFS, and HWRF (Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting Model) over a 240-hour period beginning at August 31, 2019 at 9:00 AM EST.

The HWRF and HMON models show another shift to the east to the point where none of them forecast Hurricane Dorian to make landfall in Florida. However, the UKMET ensemble still has the storm over the Florida peninsula, as do several GFS and ECMWF ensemble members.

D: Tropical Depression – wind speed less than 39 MPH
S: Tropical Storm – wind speed between 39 MPH and 73 MPH
H: Hurricane – wind speed between 74 MPH and 110 MPH
M: Major Hurricane – wind speed greater than 110 MPH

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami, Florida, said the track forecast becomes much more uncertain and problematic after 48 hours. The new track forecast for 72 to 120 hours will be moved eastward to stay east of the coast of Florida, which places it between the old forecast and the
model consensus.

The NHC said “additional adjustments to the forecast track may be necessary later today if current model trends continue” and stressed the “new forecast track does not preclude Dorian making landfall on the Florida coast.”

Further, large portions of the eastern coast remain in the cone of uncertainty and significant impacts could occur even if the center of the storm remains offshore.

Satellite imagery from Saturday morning show a fairly symmetric area of cold cloud tops surrounding an eye roughly 10 to 15 nautical miles wide. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km).

The latest minimum central pressure just reported by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft was 944 mb (27.88 inches). A drop in pressure typically indicates a storm is strengthening, while an increase typically indicates weakening.

On Saturday, the ECMWF (Euro), GFS, and

Economy

Gains in Workers’ Wages and Compensation Offset By Losses for Interest Earners

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported personal income gains slowed to 0.1% in July, below the consensus forecast. Wages and salaries, the largest component of personal income, rose 0.2% in July after gaining 0.5% in June.

PriorRevisedConsensus ForecastForecast RangeActual
Personal Income – M/M ∆0.4%0.5%0.3%0.1% to 0.4%0.1%
Consumer Spending – M/M ∆0.3%0.5%0.3% to 0.6%0.6%
PCE Price Index M/M ∆0.1%0.2%0.2% to 0.3%0.2%
Core PCE Price Index – M/M ∆0.2%0.2%0.1% to 0.3%0.2%
PCE Price Index Y/Y ∆1.4%1.3%1.5%1.4% to 1.5%1.4%
Core PCE Price Index – Yr/Yr ∆1.6%1.7%1.6% to 1.7%1.6%

Personal income rose 0.4% in both June and May. Wages and salaries gained 0.2% in May.

Worth noting, the slowing in the increase in personal income for July was driven by decreases in personal interest income offsetting increases in compensation of employees and government social benefits.

Put plainly, more wealthy interest earners offset rises in workers wages and benefits.

Disposable personal income (DPI) rose by $44.4 billion (0.3%) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) gained $93.1 billion (0.6%). Real DPI rose 0.1% in July and Real PCE gained 0.4%.

The PCE price index increased by 0.2%. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.2%.

Personal outlays rose $96.4 billion.

Personal saving came in at $1.27 trillion in July and the personal saving rate — which is personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income — was still a solid 7.7%.

Americans are spending and saving.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported

US

ECMWF (Euro), GFS, HWRF Models for August 30 at 5AM EST

UPDATE: Hurricane Dorian Stalls, Forecasts Dangerously Close to Florida [ECMWF (Euro) + GFS + HWRF]

While uncertainty in the models persists, Hurricane Dorian is forecast to strengthen and now slowdown on approach ahead of Florida. The storm is currently on a northwestern track as a Category 2 and packing maximum sustained winds near 105 mph (gusts higher).

The above forecasts include the ECMWF (Euro), GFS, and HWRF (Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting Model) over a 240-hour period beginning at 5:00 AM EST.

The likelihood of Dorian increasing to a Category 4 ahead of landfall at Southeastern Florida is now significantly higher.

Due to a weak northern ridge, the forecasts now expect a slow down somewhere near the Northern Bahamas to South Florida and even Central Florida. That pushes back the arrival of the storm and could mean prolonged winds, storm surge and rain, leading to flooding.

D: Tropical Depression – wind speed less than 39 MPH
S: Tropical Storm – wind speed between 39 MPH and 73 MPH
H: Hurricane – wind speed between 74 MPH and 110 MPH
M: Major Hurricane – wind speed greater than 110 MPH

On this track, Dorian should move over the Atlantic well east of the southeastern and central Bahamas today, approach the northwestern Bahamas on Saturday, and move near or over portions of the northwestern Bahamas on Sunday.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami, Florida, said Dorian is expected to strengthen to a major hurricane later today. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles.

The minimum central pressure based on data from an earlier Hurricane Hunter mission is 979 mb (28.91 inches).

Governor Ron DeSantis sent a letter to President Donald Trump on Thursday formally requesting that he declare a pre-landfall disaster for all 67 counties.

“The trajectory of this storm remains uncertain, and this declaration will provide us with the necessary resources to ensure the state is fully prepared,” Governor DeSantis said. “I am confident the President will grant my request and show his full support for Florida.”

President Trump cancelled his trip to Poland in order to support Floridians and other Americans impacted by Hurricane Dorian.

The ECMWF (Euro), GFS, and HWRF forecast

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