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Elections

For 2019-2020 Cycle, a Debtless RNC Raised Total $117.9 Million

Republican National Committee Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel speaks at a December 2017 fundraiser in New York with President Donald Trump. (Photo: SS)
Republican National Committee Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel speaks at a December 2017 fundraiser in New York with President Donald Trump. (Photo: SS)

The Republican National Committee (RNC) announced a record-breaking $20.8 million fundraising haul for July. That’s the party’s largest ever off-cycle haul for the month of July.

That brings the party’s fundraising total to $117.9 million for the 2019-2020 cycle. A debtless RNC boasts $46.6 million cash on hand, up from $44 million at the start of July when they announced raising $51 million in the second quarter (Q2) of 2019.

“Last month’s fundraising haul again smashed records, and we continue to directly invest this money into growing our top-notch data-driven infrastructure, recruiting and training thousands of new volunteers, and registering voters across the country,” said Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel.

“Our fundraising success is further evidence that the American people like the pro-growth agenda and economic record that the Trump Administration and Republicans continue to deliver, and this puts us in a strong position to secure more Republican victories in 2020.”

The Trump Campaign and RNC joint fundraising efforts raised $105 million in Q2 2019. Broken down, $54 million came from the campaign and its committees.

Since 2018, Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel has increased high-dollar donations from 33% of total contributions to roughly 45%. However, the RNC still receives a larger share of small-dollar donations ($200 or less) than the Democratic National Committee (DNC).

Still, the Trump Campaign has a much higher “low dollar” percentage than the RNC. “Low-dollar” contributions are defined as $200 or less, and are indicative of grassroots enthusiasm and working-class support.

As People’s Pundit Daily (PPD) previously reported, roughly 98.5% of contributions to the Trump Campaign in Q4 2018 came from donations of $200 or less.

In Q1 2019, that percentage ticked slightly higher to 98.79%. The average donation was just $34.26.

The Republican National Committee (RNC) announced a

Economy

Year-Over-Year, Retail E-Commerce Sales Gained 13.3%

E-Commerce Retail Sales Graphic (Source: Adobe Stock)
E-Commerce Retail Sales Graphic (Source: Adobe Stock)

The Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce announced U.S. retail e-commerce sales for the second quarter (Q2) 2019 came in at an estimated $146.2 billion, an increase of 4.2% (±0.9%) from Q1 2019.

Estimates are adjusted for seasonal variation, but not for price changes.

PriorActual
E-Sales Q/Q ∆ SAAR3.6%4.2%

Total retail sales for Q2 2019 were estimated at $1,361.8 billion, an increase of 1.8% (±0.2%) from Q1 2019. The stronger-than-anticipated report follows a series of beats and strong consumer spending amid recession fears.

The advance estimate for retail sales came in at $523.5 billion in July, an increase of 0.7% (±0.5%) and more than double the consensus forecast. That followed an increase of 0.4% (±0.5%) in June, also stronger than expected. 

The Q2 2019 e-commerce estimate rose 13.3% (±1.6%) from Q2 2018 and total retail sales have gained 3.2% (±0.5%) during the same period.

E-commerce sales in Q2 2019 accounted for 10.7% of total sales.

U.S. retail e-commerce sales for the second

Politics

Sanders Calls for Abolishing the Death Penalty, Charging Minors as Adults in Murder Cases, Federal Registry for “Disreputable” Officers

Bernie Sanders stands at the podium on stage during a walk through before the start of the Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania on July 25, 2016. (Photo: SS)
Bernie Sanders stands at the podium on stage during a walk through before the start of the Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania on July 25, 2016. (Photo: SS)

Senator Bernie Sanders, D/I-Vt., unveiled what he called the “boldest” criminal justice reform plan in the history of American politics. The controversial proposal calls for the creation of a “registry of disreputable federal law enforcement officers” and “financial support” for comparable lists at the state level.

It is also also “ban the prosecution of children under the age of 18 in adult courts” for all offenses to include rape and murder, prohibit youth from ever facing prison time for misdemeanors, abolish the death penalty and aim to cut the “incarcerated population in half” by ending what the campaign called “excessive sentencing.”

The socialist senator is still a top tier candidate running for the 2020 Democratic nomination. However, in recent weeks his second-place poll position has given way to Senator Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., whose campaign has benefited from a series of missteps from the competition.

The plan was released just two days after an Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) facility in Texas was shot up in what the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) called a “targeted attack.”

Senator Sanders’ reform package also doubled-down on previous calls to allow all incarcerated felons — to include the Boston Marathon bomber, other terrorists and rapists — the right to vote.

“All voting-age Americans must have the right and meaningful access to vote, whether they are incarcerated or not,” the proposal states. “We will re-enfranchise the right to vote to the millions of Americans who have had their vote taken away by a felony conviction.”

Previous calls resulted in a decline in the polls for the 2016 runner-up.

“Prison is not a solution for social problems,” the plan adds. “We need to address the deeper structural problems that give rise to crime, such as joblessness, income inequality, lack of education, and untreated substance abuse.”

As a result, Senator Sanders proposes “a federal jobs guarantee to provide good jobs at a living wage revitalizing and taking care of the community” and to “pass a $15 minimum wage.”

Sanders Calls for Abolishing the Death Penalty,

Economy

The Survey of Consumers preliminary reading on consumer sentiment fell to 92.1, the lowest level for the year.

Survey of ConsumersAugust (p)ConsensusJuly (f)August 2018M/M ∆Y/Y ∆
Index of Consumer Sentiment92.197.598.496.2-6.4%-4.3%
Current Economic Conditions107.4110.7110.3-3.0%-2.6%
Index of Consumer Expectations82.390.587.1-9.1%-5.5%

(p): Preliminary Reading (f): Final Reading

“The main takeaway for consumers from the first cut in interest rates in a decade was to increase apprehensions about a possible recession,” Richard Curtain, Chief Economist for the Survey of Consumers said. “Consumers concluded, following the Fed’s lead, that they may need to reduce spending in anticipation of a potential recession.”

The Survey of Consumers preliminary reading on

Press Releases

Zachary Vorhies, a Senior Software Engineer for Google-turned whistleblower, shared documents with James O’Keefe and Project Veritas that were released on August 14. These documents included a Google Now blacklist and Google block list, allegedly impacting the app and not all Google searches.

That block list included The Daily Caller, Catholic News Agency, NewsBusters, MRCTV, Twitchy, Conservative Tribune, Front Page Mag, RedState, Christian Post, and many others to include People’s Pundit Daily (PPD).

Below is a statement from Richard Baris, the Data Journalism Editor at People’s Pundit Daily.

Unfortunately, we have no reason to question the veracity of the documents supplied to Project Veritas, and are deeply disappointed by Google’s decision to blacklist our site.

We have been a Google News Publisher for many years and are committed to transparency, accuracy, inclusion, and fairness. For that reason, we were quick to comply with the standardized disclosures outlined by the Trust Project. Our data journalism focuses largely on economic indicators. To our knowledge, we have never published a report — covering economic or political events — deemed to be inaccurate by independent fact-checkers.

Minor corrections to our work have always been made in a timely fashion and in compliance with our Corrections Policy. All Trust Indicators, to include our Corrections Policy, are easily available and visible to readers on every page of the website.

That being said, PPD is home to the only election projection model on the Internet not funded and run by liberals and corporate big media. Since its debut in 2014, the PPD Election Projection Model has boasted a far better track record than our competitors. That includes accurately predicting Donald J. Trump would defeat Hillary Clinton in 2016.

Until we see some evidence to the contrary, we have little alternative but to assume ideology was the driving force behind the decision to blacklist our site.

A statement from People's Pundit Daily (PPD)

Economy

Builder Confidence Not Yet Baked Into Housing Starts

Starts – Level – SAAR1.253 M1.241 M1.259 M1.210 M to 1.280 M1.191 M
Permits – Level – SAAR1.220 M1.232 M1.270 M1.220 M to 1.290 M1.336 M

The new residential construction report for July finds housing starts and building permits are up year-over-year, but came in mixed on monthly forecasts.

Housing Starts

Privately‐owned housing starts came in at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,191,000, or 4.0% (±8.0) below the revised estimate of 1,241,000 for June. But that is still 0.6% (±8.2%) above the level in July 2018.

Single‐family housing starts came in at a rate of 876,000, up 1.3% (±11.8%) from the revised figure of 865,000 for June. The rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 303,000 in July.

Building Permits

Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits came in at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,336,000, or 8.4% (±1.1%) higher than the revised rate of 1,232,000 in June. That’s also 1.5% (±1.4%) higher than the rate of 1,316,000 in July 2018.

Single‐family authorizations came in at a rate of 838,000, which 1.8% (±1.4%) higher than the revised 823,000 for June. Authorizations of units in buildings with five or more units came in at a rate of 453,000 in July.

Housing Completions

Privately‐owned housing completions soared in July, coming in at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,250,000. That is up 7.2% (±11.4%) from the revised estimate of 1,166,000 in June and 6.3% (±12.0%) higher than the rate of 1,176,000 in July 2018.

Single‐family housing completions came in at a rate of 918,000, up 4.3% (±10.8%) from the revised rate of 880,000 in June. The July rate for units in buildings with five units or more came in at 321,000.

The new residential construction report comes just one day after the NAFB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released on Thursday found builder confidence ticked slightly higher to 66 in August.

The new residential construction report for July

Economy

The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) ticked 1 point higher to 66 in August, a solid reading at the high end of the forecast range. Homebuilder sentiment has remained at a solid level ranging from 64 to 66 over four straight months.

PriorConsensus ForecastForecast RangeActual
Housing Market Index (HMI)65 66 64 to 66 66 

“Even as builders report a firm demand for single-family homes, they continue to struggle with rising construction costs stemming from excessive regulations, a chronic shortage of workers and a lack of buildable lots,” said NAHB Chairman Greg Ugalde, a home builder and developer from Torrington, Conn.

The HMI index for current sales conditions rose 2 points to 73. The component for traffic of prospective buyers rose 2 points to 50. The index for sales expectations over the next 6 months fell 1 point to 70.

“While 30-year mortgage rates have dropped from 4.1 percent down to 3.6 percent during the past four months, we have not seen an equivalent higher pace of building activity because the rate declines occurred due to economic uncertainty stemming largely from growing trade concerns,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz.

“Although affordability headwinds remain a challenge, demand is good and growing at lower price points and for smaller homes.”

Regionally, the three-month moving average for the South moved 1 point higher to 69, while the West was also up 1 point to 73. The Midwest also ticked up 1 point to 57, while the Northeast fell 3 points to 57.

Methodology

The HMI is a weighted average of separate diffusion indices for these three key single-family series. The first two series are rated on a scale of Good, Fair and Poor and the last is rated on a scale of High/Very High, Average, and Low/Very Low. A diffusion index is calculated for each series by applying the formula “(Good-Poor+100)/2” to the present and future sales series and “(High/Very High – Low/Very Low + 100)/2” to the traffic series. Each resulting index is then seasonally adjusted and weighted to produce the HMI.

Based on this calculation, the HMI can range between 0 and 100.

The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI)

Economy

A solid 2.3% annual growth rate for nonfarm productivity was matched by a solid 2.4% gain in labor cost for the second quarter (Q2) 2019. That’s a beat on the moderate 1.5% and 2.0% consensus forecasts, respectively.

IndicatorPriorPrior RevisedConsensus ForecastForecast RangeActual
Nonfarm Productivity – Q/Q ∆ – SAAR3.4%3.5%1.5%0.7% to 2.5%2.3%
Unit Labor Costs – Q/Q ∆ – SAAR-1.6%2.0%0.2% to 2.8%2.4%

Labor productivity, or output per hour, is calculated by dividing an index of real output by an index of hours worked by all persons, including employees, proprietors, and unpaid family workers.

Output increased 1.9% while hours worked fell 0.4%. Unit labor costs in the nonfarm business sector rose 2.4% in Q2 2019, roughly mirroring the 2.5% pace over the last four quarters.

A solid 2.3% annual growth rate for

Economy

Decline in Manufacturing and Mining Offset Jump in Utilities

Industry production 4.0 and technology concept, depicting factory production on a conveyor belt with factory operational workers in uniform. (Photo: AdobeStock)
Industry production 4.0 and technology concept, depicting factory production on a conveyor belt with factory operational workers in uniform. (Photo: AdobeStock)

The Federal Reserve said industrial production dipped slightly in July, as manufacturing offset a jump in utilities to miss the forecast. Industrial production, which has fallen more than 1.5% since December 2018, was revised higher for June from flat to 0.2%.

IndicatorPriorPrior RevisedConsensus ForecastForecast RangeActual
Production – M/M ∆0.0%0.2%0.1%-0.4% to 0.4%-0.2%
Manufacturing – M/M ∆0.4%0.6%-0.1%-0.3% to 0.1%-0.4%
Capacity Utilization Rate – Level77.9%77.8%77.8%77.7% to 78.2%77.5%

In July, mining output declined sharply 1.8%, though it is expected to be temporary due to Hurricane Barry. The storm hurt oil extraction in the Gulf of Mexico. The index for utilities, which is impacted by weather, increased 3.1%.

At 109.2 percent of its 2012 average, total industrial production was 0.5% higher in July than it was a year earlier.

Capacity utilization for the industrial sector fell 0.3% in July to 77.5%, a rate that is 2.3% below its long-run (1972–2018) average.

The Federal Reserve said industrial production dipped

Economy

The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey came in at 16.8, a far less than expected drop to beat the forecast for August.

PriorConsensus ForecastForecast RangeActual
Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey – Level21.811.14.4  to 16.416.8 

New orders increased by 7 points, while shipments decreased by 6 points. Unfilled orders and delivery times indexes remained positive, indicating higher unfilled orders and slower delivery times.

Empire State Manufacturing Survey Ticks Slightly Higher in August, Beating Forecast

However, while firms reported hiring, the current employment index fell 26 points to 3.6, the lowest since November 2016. Nearly 25% of the firms reported higher employment juxtaposed to 36% last month.

Nearly 21% of the firms reported decreases in employment this month, up from 6% last month. The average workweek index also remained positive but decreased.

The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Business Outlook

People's Pundit Daily
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