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Liberal-progressive, left-wing economist Paul Krugman is actually paid $25,000 per month to talk, write, research and harp about “income inequality.”

I don’t know whether to be impressed or horrified by Paul Krugman. I’m impressed that he’s always “on message.” No matter what’s happening in America or around the world, he always has some sort of story about why events show the need for bigger government.

But I’m horrified that he’s so sloppy with numbers.

My all-time favorite example of his fact-challenged approach deals with Estonia. In an attempt to condemn market-based fiscal policy, he blamed that nation’s 2008 recession on spending cuts that took place in 2009.

Wow. That’s like saying that a rooster’s crowing causes yesterday’s sunrise. Amazing.

Let’s look at a new example. This is some of what he recently wrote while trying to explain why the U.S. has out-performed Europe.

America has yet to achieve a full recovery from the effects of the 2008 financial crisis. Still, it seems fair to say that we’ve made up much, though by no means all, of the lost ground. But you can’t say the same about the eurozone, where real G.D.P. per capita is still lower than it was in 2007, and 10 percent or more below where it was supposed to be by now. This is worse than Europe’s track record during the 1930s. Why has Europe done so badly?

Krugman answers his own question by saying that the United States has been more loyal to Keynesian economics.

…what stands out from around 2010 onward is the huge divergence in thinking that emerged between the United States and Europe. In America, the White House and the Federal Reserve mainly stayed faithful to standard Keynesian economics. The Obama administration wasted a lot of time and effort pursuing a so-called Grand Bargain on the budget, but it continued to believe in the textbook proposition that deficit spending is actually a good thing in a depressed economy.

I have to confess that alarm bells went off in my head when I read this passage.

If Krugman was talking about the two years between 2008 and 2010, he would be right about “staying faithful to standard Keynesian economics.”

But 2010 was actually the turning point when fiscal policy in America moved very much in an anti-Keynesian direction.

Here’s the remarkable set of charts showing this reversal. First, there was zero spending growth in Washington after 2009.

Obama-Spending-Binge

Federal Spending from 2000 to the present. (Source: Dan Mitchell)

Second, this modest bit of fiscal restraint meant a big reduction in the burden of government spending relative to economic output.

Obama-Spending-GDP

Federal Spending from start of Obama administration to the present. (Source: Dan Mitchell)

Wow, if this is Keynesian economics, then I’m changing my name to John Maynard Mitchell!

So is Krugman hallucinating? Why is he claiming that U.S. policy was Keynesian?

Let’s bend over backwards to be fair and try to find some rationale for his assertions. Remember, he is making a point about U.S. performance vs. European performance.

So maybe if we dig through the data and find that European nations were even more fiscally conservative starting in 2010, then there will be some way of defending Krugman’s claim.

Yet I looked at the IMF’s world economic outlook database and I crunched the numbers for government spending in the biggest EU economies (Germany, UK, France, Italy, Spain, Netherlands, Sweden, Belgium, accounting for almost 80 percent of the bloc’s GDP).

And what did I find?

Contrary to Krugman’s claims, total government spending in those nations grew slightly faster than it did in the United States between 2009 and 2014.

So on what basis can Krugman argue that the U.S. had a more Keynesian approach?

Beats the heck out of me. I even looked at the OECD data on deficits to see whether there was some way of justifying his argument, but those numbers show the biggest reduction in red ink (presumably a bad thing according to Keynesian stimulus theory) took place in the United States.

But I will close by acknowledging that Krugman’s column isn’t just focused on fiscal policy. He also argues that the Federal Reserve has been more Keynesian than European central banks. My impression is that both the Fed and the ECB have been keeping interest rates artificially low, so I’m not sure that’s an effective argument (or an effective policy!), but I’ll leave that issue to the folks who specialize in monetary policy.

P.S. If you want additional examples of Krugman’s factual errors, see here, here, here, here, here, here, herehere, here, and here.

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No matter what’s happening in America or

campus-reform-calen-bonham

Campus Reform’s Caleb Bonham asking several students at the University of Washington why they plan to support Hillary Clinton. (Photo: Screenshot)

Caleb Bonham of Campus Reform asked several students at the University of Washington for the “biggest reason” they planned to vote for Hillary Clinton in the 2016 presidential election. Not surprisingly, several of the students admitted it’s “because she’s a woman.”

“Tell me the one reason why you would support a Hillary Clinton presidency,” Bonham asked one female student.

“Because she’s a woman,” the student honestly replied. “So, diversity, you know.”

Another student answered, “To be honest, it’s because she’s a female.”

Some of them even admitted that picking a president based only on gender probably isn’t the smartest thing. But at least they had the courage to admit their decision wouldn’t be based on principles or high-information voting.

That is more than can be said for House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., who flat-out urged low-information voting on behalf of women when she told reporters during a press conference Friday that Hillary’s position on the issues and her record are just not as important as electing a female president.

When asked about recent comments from Gov. Lincoln Chafee, I-R.I., who is considering running as a Democrat for president and implied Hillary shouldn’t be the nominee because of her support for the Iraq War, Pelosi went on to insult the intelligence of women in a manner not yet seen from the right. Pelosi, consequently, called the Iraq war among other things “a grotesque mistake” after she voted for it before voting to defund soldiers serving in a combat theater.

“What’s important is what it would mean to elect a woman president of the United States,” Pelosi said. “It’s a very major consideration… When I became even whip, the response was so overwhelming from people saying how encouraged they were that we had broken not the glass ceiling. That’s nothing. We’re talk about the marble ceiling. ”

Watch the full video via Campus Reform below:

Caleb Bonham of Campus Reform asked several

huckabee-special-report-2016-announcement

Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee speaks to Bret Baier on April 17, 2015 on Special Report.

Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee told Fox News anchor Bret Baier on Special Report Friday that he will announce his 2016 plans on May 5 in his home state. Huckabee, the former host of The Huckabee Show on Fox News, gave his last monologue in early January when he left the show because he was seriously considering a 2016 run.

“I will announce on May the 5th in my hometown of Hope, Arkansas what my plans will be,” Huckabee said. “Come to Hope on May the 5th and you’ll find out what’s going to happen.”

The former 2008 presidential candidate shocked pundit by winning the first-in-the-nation caucus state of Iowa, and according to the PPD average in the state, is currently polling in second place with 12 percent. Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker leads the pack with 20 percent.

But, perhaps due to his relatively low profile over the past few months, he has trailed other headline-makers and GOP hopefuls nationwide, polling at 8.4 percent on the PPD average.

Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee told Fox

consumer sentiment men shopping

Shoppers at Third Street Promenade outdoor shopping mall on August 17, 2012 in Santa Monica, California. (Photo: Reuters)

U.S. consumer sentiment rose slightly more than expected in April, a according to the University of Michigan’s preliminary monthly reading on the overall index. The Thomas Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment index came in at 95.9, up from the final March read of 93.0.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast a reading of 94.0.

The survey’s subindex on business conditions rose to 108.2 from 105.0 in March, and consumer expectations rose to 88.0 from 85.3. The forecast of economists polled by Reuters was for a reading of 105.2 for the conditions index and 87.0 for expectations.

Still, the Dow shedding more than 250 points in midday trade on news from China indicating regulators will now reportedly allow fund managers to lend stocks for short selling. There is also concern about more regulatory clampdowns possible in China.

Meanwhile, U.S. Consumer prices are seeing a modest pick-up. Excluding food and energy, the Labor Department said the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 1.8 percent in March, according to the Labor Department. Overall prices for the month were little changed at -0.1%.

U.S. consumer sentiment rose slightly more than

jobs-fair-weekly-jobs-report

An unemployed American speaks to a recruiter at a jobs fair. (Photo: Mark Ralston AFP/Getty)

Way back in 2010, I shared two very depressing numbers to illustrate how Obama’s policies were creating “regime uncertainty.” I shared data on the cash reserves of companies and suggested it was bad news that those firms thought it made more sense to sit on money rather than invest it.

I also shared numbers on the excess reserves that banks were keeping at the Federal Reserve and speculated that this was because of a similarly dismal perspective about economic prospects.

At the time, I figured that those numbers eventually would get better. But I was wrong.

Companies are still sitting on the same about of cash and banks have actually increased the amount of money they have parked at the Federal Reserve.

Now let’s look at some more data that doesn’t reflect well on Obamanomics.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland has some very discouraging analysis about worker compensation.

…real wages have barely risen—real compensation per hour has risen only by 0.5 percent, much less than at this point in past recoveries. The lack of strong wage growth has been one factor that has held down the growth of income, consumer spending, and the recovery. …Some longer-term changes in the economy have likely played a larger role in depressing real wage growth. …Productivity growth in the nonfarm business sector has averaged only 1.46 percent since 2004 and 0.85 percent since 2010. As the growth of labor productivity is a key determinant of real wage growth in the long run, the slowdown of productivity has probably helped to depress wage growth.

And here’s a chart from the article.

behind-the-slow-pace-of-wage-growth-img-03

The brown line at the bottom is what’s been happening under Obamanomics. As you can see, compensation has basically been unchanged for the past five years. In other words, living standards have stagnated.

The Cleveland Fed data shows dismal earnings and productivity data for all Americans. And it’s important to understand how those numbers are related.

Some folks in Washington think that companies should act like charities and give workers lots of money simply because that’s a nice way to behave.

In the real world, though, workers get paid on the basis of how much they produce. So when productivity numbers are weak, as the Cleveland Fed points out, you also get weak data for worker compensation.

But now let’s dig even deeper and ask what determines productivity numbers. There are many factors, of course, but saving and investment are very important.In other words, capital formation. Simply stated, you need people to set aside some of today’s income to finance tomorrow’s growth.

And growth, as measured by inflation-adjusted changes in output, is entirely a function of population growth and productivity growth.

So the bottom line is that workers will only earn more if they produce more. But they’ll only produce more if there’s more saving and investment.

And this is why Obama’s policies are so poisonous. His tax policy is very anti-saving and anti-investment. And the increases in the regulatory burden also make it less attractive for investors and entrepreneurs to put money at risk.

Obama thinks he’s punishing the “rich,” but the rest of us are paying the price.

Now let’s look specifically at American blacks.

Deroy Murdock explains in National Review that they should feel especially angry at the gap between Obama’s rhetoric and performance.

Republicans should ask black Americans for their votes from now through November 2016. They should do so by challenging blacks to ask themselves an honest question: “What, exactly, have you gained by handing Obama 95 percent of your votes in 2008 and 93 percent in 2012?”

Deroy then lists a bunch of depressing statistics on what’s happened since 2009.

Here are the numbers that I think are most persuasive.

U.S. labor force participation has declined during that same period, from 65.7 to 62.7 percent. For blacks in general, …dipping from 63.2 to 61.0 percent of available employees in the work pool. For black teenagers, however, this number deteriorated — from 29.6 to 25.7 percent. The percentage of Americans below the poverty line inched up, the latest available Census Bureau data found, from 14.3 to 14.5 percent overall — between 2009 and 2013. For black Americans, that climb was steeper: The 25.8 percent in poverty rose to 27.2 percent. Real median household incomes across America retreated across those years, from $54,059 to $51,939. …such finances also reversed for black Americans, from $35,387 to $34,598. …Home ownership slipped from 67.3 percent of Americans in the first quarter of 2009 to 64.0 in the fourth quarter of 2014. For blacks, that figure slid from 46.1 to 42.1 percent.

Here’s Deroy’s bottom line.

Obama has betrayed blacks as a community, failed Americans as a people, and enfeebled the United States as a nation.

To be sure, it’s not as if Obama wanted to hurt blacks. He just doesn’t understand or doesn’t care that statist policies undermine economic performance.

And when you hurt economic growth, the folks at the bottom rungs of the economic ladder generally suffer the most, and that’s why there are so many grim statistics about the economic health of black America.

The good news is that we know how to solve the problem. The bad news is that Obama is in the White House until January 2017.

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CATO economist Dan Mitchell examines data that

jeb-bush-loretta-lynch

Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush answers questions at a town hall with Republican primary voters at the Snowshoe Club in New Hampshire on April 16, 2015.

Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush Thursday said the Republican-controlled Senate should confirm President Obama’s nominee for Attorney General, Loretta Lynch.

“I think that Presidents have the right to pick their team,” Bush told a crowd of roughly 100 voters. “The longer it takes to confirm her, the longer Eric Holder stays as Attorney General. Look at it that way.”

Bush’s comments came as he was taking questions at a town hall with Republican primary voters at the Snowshoe Club in New Hampshire.

However, despite Mr. Bush’s interpretation, presidents do not “have the right to pick their team,” according to the U.S. Constitution. They have the right to nominate their team and the U.S. Senate has a right and a duty to confirm or reject that nomination if they see warrant to do either.

Article II, section 2, clause 2:

“The president shall nominate, and by and with the Advice and Consent of the Senate, shall appoint Ambassadors, other public Ministers and Consuls, Judges of the supreme Court, and all other Officers of the United States . . . . ”

GOP senators, including at least two who are also running for president, Sens. Cruz and Paul, have serious concerns over Lynch’s nomination. Among the concerns are Lynch’s refusal to acknowledge the arbitrary enforcement of federal law under Attorney General Eric Holder and President Obama, particularly on immigration, her involvement in the administration’s decision not to prosecute HSBC (NYSE:HSBC) for laundering funds for Mexican drug cartels and Middle Eastern governments, such as Iran.

The issue of immigration did come up at the 60-minute town hall, as it will likely do again and again in the coming months. Bush was questioned at the event, dubbed Politics and Pie, regarding his support for comprehension immigration reform.

“I respect your view,” Bush told one voter. “But I don’t have to agree with it.”

Bush currently trails Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker by just 1-point in the first-in-the-nation primary state of New Hampshire, according to the PPD average of polls.

 

Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush Thursday said

lincoln-cabinet

President Abraham Lincoln, the 16th President of the United States, depicted with his cabinet.

April 12 marked the anniversary of the start of The American Civil War, but a new survey from Rasmussen Reports finds just one-in-three Americans even know it happened. With an abysmal and, frankly pathetic, number such as that, I thought it made sense to draw attention to the nation’s past suffering and sacrifice before it became an valid position to argue they were both in vain.

After all, a “nation,” as defined by Benedict Anderson, is not a nation at all without a shared sense of sacrifice, and glory.

The American Civil War was the nation’s bloodiest conflict by far, with 620,000 military deaths representing roughly 2 percent of the entire U.S. population. New military technology combined with out-dated battlefield tactics resulted in a scale of military casualties and death unprecedented in American history, and to a certain extent, world history.

casualties-by-war

Source: CivilWar.org

If we were to total up the number of military casualties from all the following wars, it wouldn’t parallel the death seen in the Civil War until the Vietnam War. Indeed, nearly as many Americans died in captivity during the Civil War than the entire casualty count from Vietnam.

civil-war-casualties-total

Source: CivilWar.org

“Fondly do we hope, fervently do we pray, that this mighty scourge of war may speedily pass away. Yet, if God wills that it continue until all the wealth piled by the bondsman’s two hundred and fifty years of unrequited toil shall be sunk, and until every drop of blood drawn with the lash shall be paid by another drawn with the sword, as was said three thousand years ago, so still it must be said “the judgments of the Lord are true and righteous altogether.” –Abraham Lincoln, 2nd Inaugural Address

April 12 marked the anniversary of the

Warren-Clinton

Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., left, and Sec. of State Hillary Clinton, right. (Photo: Boston Globe)

What’s America’s main fiscal policy challenge, particularly in the long run? Most sensible people will agree that our greatest threat is the rising burden of entitlement spending.

More specifically, demographic changes and ill-designed programs will combine to dramatically expand the size of the public sector over the next few decades.

So it’s really amazing that some politicians, led by the clownish Elizabeth Warren, want to dig the hole deeper.

Here are some excerpts from a recent article in the Washington Examiner.

Elizabeth Warren is pushing Democrats to expand Social Security rather than cut it, a move that could pressure presumed party frontrunner Hillary Clinton to move left. …”What Elizabeth Warren has done on pushing the ball forward on Social Security is another example of why she’s a bold progressive hero,” said T.J. Helmstetter, a representative for the Progressive Change Campaign Committee, an outside group that pushes for progressive causes. …In March, almost all Democratic senators voted for a symbolic budget amendment to express support for expanding Social Security. …The messaging amendment approved by most Senate Democrats also did not specify how benefits were to be expanded.

I discussed this topic in a recent interview.

Though I’m surprised that my head didn’t explode while discussing such a reckless idea.

I closed the interview by expressing a modest bit of optimism.

Surely (at least I hope) politicians won’t dig the hole deeper when we can see right before our eyes the fiscal chaos and economic disarray in Greece, right?!?

I’m surprised demagogues such as Elizabeth Warren haven’t rallied behind a plan to simply add a bunch of zeroes to the IOUs already sitting in the so-called Social Security Trust Fund.

Fortunately, not all politicians think it’s smart to accelerate as you’re driving toward a cliff.

Writing in the Washington Post, Charles Lane explains Governor Christie’s proposal.

New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie…wants to campaign on a sweeping proposal to rein in federal entitlement spending on the elderly. …he urged a phaseout of Social Security benefits for retirees with $80,000 or more in other income and backed a gradual upward adjustment of the retirement ages for Medicare and Social Security, which is also appropriate, given increased life expectancy. …Social Security…remains a non-trivial cause of the government’s long-term fiscal imbalance. Its trust fund, admittedly an accounting fiction of sorts, is on course to run out of cash by the early 2030s. Christie’s plan would provide three-fifths of the resources necessary to guarantee Social Security’s solvency for 75 years

Kudos to Governor Christie for recognizing that you can’t repeal mathematics with politics.

And this modest bit of praise isn’t based on policy. I’m not a big fan of means testing, which has some unfortunate economic effects.

And I also think that raising the retirement age is sub-optimal since it forces people to pay longer into an inferior system that already is giving them a very low rate of return.

The right approach is to transition to a system of personal retirement accounts, but at least Christie has an adult proposal based on real-world considerations.

Though, to be fair, many leftists claim we can afford higher benefits and also “fix” the system with a giant tax increase. So they sometimes recognize that math exists, even if they want us to believe that 2 + 2 = 7.

P.S. If Hillary winds up endorsing Warren’s reckless plan, it will give us another data point for our I-can’t-believe-she-said-that collection.

P.P.S. Is Elizabeth Warren more of a faux populist or more of a faux American Indian?

P.P.P.S. You can enjoy some previous Social Security cartoons here, here, and here. And we also have a Social Security joke if you appreciate grim humor.

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Most sensible economists understand we can't sustain

(Photo: Reuters)

Factory activity in the U.S. mid-Atlantic region increased “modestly” in April, according to the Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey released on Thursday.

The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank said its business activity index rose to 7.5 from 5.0 the month before.

“Indicators for general activity and new orders were positive but remained at low readings,” the Philadelphia Fed said. “Firms reported overall declines in shipments this month, but employment and work hours increased at the reporting firms.”

Economists forecast a reading of 6.0, according to a Reuters poll. Any reading above zero indicates expansion in the region’s manufacturing. The survey covers factories in eastern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey and Delaware.

It is seen as one of the first monthly indicators of the health of U.S. manufacturing leading up to the national report by the Institute for Supply Management. It follows the Empire State Manufacturing Survey, which was released Wednesday. The New York Fed said manufacturing in the region contracted in April as New York business conditions deteriorated, significantly missing economists’ expectations.

Factory activity in the U.S. mid-Atlantic region

The Labor Department report continues to show weekly jobless claims beating Wall Street expectations in the third week after changing its calculation method. The number of Americans filing new claims for jobless benefits unexpectedly rose last week by 12,000 to a seasonally adjusted 294,000 for the week ended April 11.

However, claims for the prior week were revised down to show 1,000 more applications received than previously reported. A Labor Department analyst said there was nothing unusual in the state-level data.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast claims slipping to 280,000 last week.

Meanwhile, the four-week moving average of claims — widely considered a better measure of labor market trends as it irons out week-to-week volatility — increased by 250 to 282,750 last week.

The claims report showed the number of people still receiving benefits after an initial week of aid fell 40,000 to 2.27 million in the week ended April 4.

 

The Labor Department report continues to show

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