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obama-college-tuition-speech-tennessee

President Obama spoke Friday in Tennessee, which is starting its own tuition program for community college students. His proposal, modeled after Tennessee’s, is to make the schooling free. (Photo: Jabin Botsford/The New York Times)

I’ve written many times about the shortcomings of government schools at the K-12 level. We spend more on our kids than any other nation, yet our test scores are comparatively dismal.

And one of my points, based on the very sobering chart below from one of my Cato colleagues, is that America’s educational performance took a turn in the wrong direction when the federal government became more involved starting about 40-50 years ago.

public school trends

Source: CATO

Well, the same unhappy story exists in the higher-education sector. Simply stated, there’s been an explosion of spending, much of it from Washington, yet the rate of return appears to be negative.

Let’s take a closer look at this issue.

Writing for the New York Times, Professor Paul Campos of the University of Colorado begins his column by giving the conventional-wisdom explanation of why colleges costs are so much.

Once upon a time in America, baby boomers paid for college with the money they made from their summer jobs. Then, over the course of the next few decades, public funding for higher education was slashed. These radical cuts forced universities to raise tuition year after year, which in turn forced the millennial generation to take on crushing educational debt loads, and everyone lived unhappily ever after. This is the story college administrators like to tell when they’re asked to explain why, over the past 35 years, college tuition at public universities has nearly quadrupled, to $9,139 in 2014 dollars.

That’s a compelling story, and it surely has convinced a lot of people, but it has one tiny little problem. It’s utter nonsense.

It is a fairy tale in the worst sense, in that it is not merely false, but rather almost the inverse of the truth. …In fact, public investment in higher education in America is vastly larger today, in inflation-adjusted dollars, than it was during the supposed golden age of public funding in the 1960s. Such spending has increased at a much faster rate than government spending in general. For example, the military’s budget is about 1.8 times higher today than it was in 1960, while legislative appropriations to higher education are more than 10 times higher. In other words, far from being caused by funding cuts, the astonishing rise in college tuition correlates closely with a huge increase in public subsidies for higher education. If over the past three decades car prices had gone up as fast as tuition, the average new car would cost more than $80,000.

Unfortunately, little of this money is being used for education.

…a major factor driving increasing costs is the constant expansion of university administration. According to the Department of Education data, administrative positions at colleges and universities grew by 60 percent between 1993 and 2009, which Bloomberg reported was 10 times the rate of growth of tenured faculty positions. Even more strikingly, an analysis by a professor at California Polytechnic University, Pomona, found that, while the total number of full-time faculty members in the C.S.U. system grew from 11,614 to 12,019 between 1975 and 2008, the total number of administrators grew from 3,800 to 12,183 — a 221 percent increase.

This is great news, but only if you’re a bureaucrat.

But if you think education dollars should be used to educate, it’s not very encouraging.

For example, check out this very depressing example of bureaucratic bloat at the University of California San Diego.

Now let’s zoom back out to the bigger issue. Professor Richard Vedder from Ohio University is even more critical of handouts for the higher-education sector. Here’s some of what he wrote for National Review.

America’s colleges and universities are terribly inefficient and excessively expensive, foster relatively little learning and ability to think critically, and turn out too many graduates who end up underemployed. These and related problems have grown sharply in the half century since the Higher Education Act of 1965 heralded a major expansion of the federal role in higher education.

Rich correctly points out that the federal government has made matters worse.

Washington is far more the problem than the solution to the current afflictions of American higher education. …Tuition has skyrocketed in the era since federal student-loan and grant programs started to become large in the late 1970s. Colleges have effectively confiscated federal loan and grant money designated for students and used it to help fund an academic arms race that has given us climbing walls, lazy rivers, and million-dollar university presidents — but declining literacy among college students and a massive mismatch between students’ labor-market expectations and the realities of the job market.

And you won’t be surprised to learn that federal handouts have backfired against low-income students.

…the primary goal of the federal student-aid programs was to improve access to college for lower-income persons. Here, the record is one of total failure: A smaller percentage of recent college graduates come from the bottom quartile of the income distribution today than was the case in 1970, when federal student-assistance programs were in their infancy.

To close on a semi-optimistic note, Prof. Vedder highlights some intriguing incremental reforms advanced by Senator Lamar Alexander of Tennessee, including the notion that handouts should be linked to performance.

…he seems to embrace the idea that colleges should have “skin in the game”: They should face financial consequences for admitting, and then failing to graduate, students who default on loans and have marginal educational backgrounds indicating that they were clearly ill prepared for truly higher education. …Users and providers of university services need to feel the pain associated with academic non-performance. Growing federal involvement in higher education has brought rising prices, falling quality, and student underemployment. While it is perhaps politically impossible to radically change the federal student financial-aid programs now, the Alexander move is an important first step to rethinking how we finance higher education.

Ultimately, though, we won’t solve the problem unless the federal government’s role is abolished, which is yet another reason to shut down the Department of Education in Washington.

P.S. Here’s a great video from Learn Liberty explaining why subsidies have translated into higher tuition.

P.P.S. Some people have their fingers crossed that there’s a “tuition bubble” that’s about to pop. I hope that’s true, and it may be happening in a few sectors such as law, but I don’t think the overall higher-education bubble will pop until and unless we end government subsidies and handouts.

P.P.P.S. I’m even against subsidies and handouts for economists!

The greatest shortcoming of government schools at

pope-easter-2015

April 5, 2015: Pope Francis, left, is framed by umbrellas as he celebrates the Easter Mass in St. Peter’s Square at the the Vatican. (Photo: AP)

Pope Francis’ “Urbi et Orbi” Easter message on Sunday praised the Lord, but also the framework nuclear agreement with Iran as an opportunity to make the world safer. Speaking in Vatican City, the pope also expressed his deep concern for the recent bloodshed in Libya, Yemen, Syria, Iraq, and in Africa.

The Urbi et Orbi Easter message, which was delivered from the central balcony of St. Peter’s square to tens of thousands of people huddled under umbrellas, is how the papal sees the state of the world’s affairs.

READ ALSO — PPD’s Easter 2015 Polls, And Annual Polling Trend Analysis

Easter day is “so beautiful, and so ugly because of the rain,” Francis said after Mass. He also made his first public comments since the recent framework for an agreement was reached in Lausanne, Switzerland, regarding Iran’s nuclear weapons program.

“In hope we entrust to the merciful Lord the framework recently agreed to in Lausanne, that it may be a definitive step toward a more secure and fraternal world,” Pope Francis said. “And we ask for peace for this world subjected to arms dealers, who earn their living with the blood of men and women.”

He also denounced “absurd bloodshed and all barbarous acts of violence” in Libya, hoping “a common desire for peace” would prevail in Yemen, which has been the scene of a recent Iran-backed coup. Saudi Arabia recently began a bombing campaign to halt the advance of the Houthi Shiite rebels and reinstall the ousted president.

Francis prayed that the `’roar of arms may cease” in Syria and Iraq, and that peace would come in Africa for Nigeria, South Sudan, Sudan and Congo.

He recalled the young people, many of them targeted because they were Christians, killed last week in a Kenyan university, and lamented kidnappings, by Islamic extremists, that have plagued parts of Africa, including Nigeria.

On Good Friday, Francis criticized the international community for what he called the complicit silence over the killing of Christians. On Easter he prayed that God would alleviate “the suffering of so many of our brothers persecuted because of his name.”

The following is the Vatican’s official English-language translation of Pope Francis “Urbi et Orbi” Easter message, which he delivered Sunday in Italian from the central balcony of St. Peter’s Basilica:

Jesus Christ is risen! Love has triumphed over hatred, life has conquered death, light has dispelled the darkness!

Out of love for us, Jesus Christ stripped himself of his divine glory, emptied himself, took on the form of a slave and humbled himself even to death, death on a cross. For this reason God exalted him and made him Lord of the universe. Jesus is Lord! By his death and resurrection, Jesus shows everyone the way to life and happiness: this way is humility, which involves humiliation. This is the path which leads to glory. Only those who humble themselves can go towards the “things that are above”, towards God (cf. Col 3:1-4). The proud look “down from above”; the humble look “up from below”.

On Easter morning, alerted by the women, Peter and John ran to the tomb. They found it open and empty. Then they drew near and “bent down” in order to enter it. To enter into the mystery, we need to “bend down”, to abase ourselves. Only those who abase themselves understand the glorification of Jesus and are able to follow him on his way.

The world proposes that we put ourselves forward at all costs, that we compete, that we prevail. But Christians, by the grace of Christ, dead and risen, are the seeds of another humanity, in which we seek to live in service to one another, not to be arrogant, but rather respectful and ready to help.

This is not weakness, but true strength! Those who bear within them God’s power, his love and his justice, do not need to employ violence; they speak and act with the power of truth, beauty and love.

From the risen Lord we ask the grace not to succumb to the pride which fuels violence and war, but to have the humble courage of pardon and peace. We ask Jesus, the Victor over death, to lighten the sufferings of our many brothers and sisters who are persecuted for his name, and of all those who suffer injustice as a result of ongoing conflicts and violence.

We ask for peace, above all, for Syria and Iraq, that the roar of arms may cease and that peaceful relations may be restored among the various groups which make up those beloved countries. May the international community not stand by before the immense humanitarian tragedy unfolding in these countries and the drama of the numerous refugees.

We pray for peace for all the peoples of the Holy Land. May the culture of encounter grow between Israelis and Palestinians and the peace process be resumed, in order to end years of suffering and division.

We implore peace for Libya, that the present absurd bloodshed and all barbarous acts of violence may cease, and that all concerned for the future of the country may work to favor reconciliation and to build a fraternal society respectful of the dignity of the person. For Yemen too we express our hope for the growth of a common desire for peace, for the good of the entire people.

At the same time, in hope we entrust to the merciful Lord the framework recently agreed to in Lausanne, that it may be a definitive step toward a more secure and fraternal world.

We ask the risen Lord for the gift of peace for Nigeria, South Sudan and for the various areas of Sudan and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. May constant prayer rise up from all people of goodwill for those who lost their lives – I think in particular of the young people who were killed last Thursday at Garissa University College in Kenya -, for all who have been kidnapped, and for those forced to abandon their homes and their dear ones.

May the Lord’s resurrection bring light to beloved Ukraine, especially to those who have endured the violence of the conflict of recent months. May the country rediscover peace and hope thanks to the commitment of all interested parties.

We ask for peace and freedom for the many men and women subject to old and new forms of enslavement on the part of criminal individuals and groups. Peace and liberty for the victims of drug dealers, who are often allied with the powers who ought to defend peace and harmony in the human family. And we ask peace for this world subjected to arms dealers.

May the marginalized, the imprisoned, the poor and the migrants who are so often rejected, maltreated and discarded, the sick and the suffering, children, especially those who are victims of violence; all who today are in mourning, and all men and women of goodwill, hear the consoling voice of the Lord Jesus: “Peace to you!” (Lk 24:36). “Fear not, for I am risen and I shall always be with you” (cf. Roman Missal, Entrance Antiphon for Easter Day).

Pope Francis' "Urbi et Orbi" Easter message

easter

On Easter, we examine public opinion on Jesus and the God of the Christian Bible.

Belief in God on Easter 2015 may be under assault at home and abroad, but the faith of Christianity, itself, in the United States of America remains strong. In total, just under 4 in 5 Americans (79 percent) identify as Christians, an increase of two points from the year prior, with 70 percent believing Jesus Christ rose from the dead.

Similarly, a recent Rasmussen Reports survey conducted on March 31- April 1, 2015 found 66 percent of Americans believe that Jesus was not only the son of God, but was resurrected on Easter Day.

Easter remains one of the most important holidays to Christian Americans, but attendance at religious services is likely to be down this year, which underscores a fundamental problem with church leadership in America. Roughly 40 percent of Christians say they will attend services this Easter, down significantly from the year prior.

Bill O’Reilly, the host of The O’Reilly Factor on FOX News, has recently ramped up criticism of the church leadership in America, making many of the same points made in OVR (see below). Overall, there is a significant disconnect between church heads and the faithful, with many Americans of faith claiming to have a relationship with Jesus Christ yet reporting decreased attendance.

Thirty-nine percent of all Americans (not just Christians) say Easter is one of our nation’s most important holidays, taking a back seat to Christmas once again. Another Rasmussen survey found that 19 percent think it’s among the least important holidays, while 38 percent place it somewhere in between.

A majority of Americans continue to say their religious faith is important in their daily lives and that the nation would be better off (53 percent) if more citizens practiced faith more often, including 51 percent who say religion should never have been taken out of the school system.

A Rasmussen survey, too, found an identical 53 percent saying America would be a better place if most people attended religious services on a regular basis, while just 7 percent think the country would be worse off. The remaining 30 percent who had a response said more religious attendance would have no impact on society. Ten percent said they are not sure.

Now for the elephant in the room.

The headlines regarding the Religious Freedom Restoration Acts in various states, including Indiana and Arkansas, also demonstrate the delicate balance regarding Americans’ faith and their views on the relationship between church and state. Religious freedom is an issue they find to be of great important, and they are paying attention. A whopping 76 percent of voters say they have closely followed recent news reports, including 33 percent who are following “very closely.”

Not surprisingly, those who say they are following the news the closest show slightly more support for similar laws in their state, but also have the strongest concern that such laws discriminate against gays and lesbians.

A recent Associated Press/Gfk poll found that 57 percent of Americans believe Christian owners of wedding-related businesses with religious objections should be allowed to refuse service to same sex couples, while 39 percent said no.

Other polls are even more favorable to the faithful.

In the most recent Rasmussen poll this month, 70 percent agreed that Christian wedding photographers and the like who have deeply held religious beliefs that oppose gay marriage have the right to turn down the job. However, that’s down a hair from 73 percent in 2014 and 85 percent in 2013 after a New Mexico photographer was sued for that very reason. Nineteen percent disagree, while 12 percent are not sure.

Just 27 percent of voters believe gay rights groups and the media accurately portray religious freedom laws like the one in Indiana. Fifty-one percent (51%) disagree and think they make the laws sound more discriminatory than they really are. A sizable 22% are undecided.

Still, likely underscoring Americans’ deep distrust of government, 53 percent of voters are concerned that religious freedom laws will lead to widespread discrimination against gays and lesbians, including 30 percent who are “very concerned.” But 43 percent don’t share this concern, at all, with 22 percent who are “not at all concerned.”

A Public Religious Research Institute poll found 54 percent of American adults say the right of religious freedom is under assault in America, while 41 percent said it is not.

That’s a lot of data to digest, but what does it all mean?

The takeaway depends on who is asking?

For church pastors or other positions leading a flock of faithful, these results are disturbing. Confidence in organized religion is at an all-time low (44 percent) in American, despite a solid majority (57 percent) still believing the tenets of God’s law and faith can solve most of the nation’s challenges.

Only 53 percent are totally satisfied with church leadership and their influence on society, down from 69 percent in 2002, while a rising 39 percent are totally dissatisfied.

For secular progressives, one might take solace in the fact Americans remain reluctant to turn to government to force their views on others, even as more disagree with their views. That may seem ironic to those who instinctively turn to government to solve society’s problems, but the majority of Americans are just not willing to do so.

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Belief in God may be under assault

national-debt-capitol-hill

US national debt piles up next to the Capitol Building in Washington, D.C., where no one has the political courage to rise to the challenge of staving off the coming crisis.

A few days ago, I cited some research by an economics professor at the University of Georgia (Go Dawgs!), who calculated that we would have a big budget surplus today if Washington lawmakers had simply maintained Bill Clinton’s final budget, adjusting it only for inflation plus population growth.

My purpose was to show that some sort of long-run spending cap (such as limiting outlays so they can’t grow faster than population plus inflation) is the best way of achieving good fiscal outcomes.

And I cited similar hypothetical examples when writing about fiscal policy in Canada and also when sharing some good analysis from Investor’s Business Daily.

I think these examples are persuasive, but some people aren’t overly impressed by arguments that aren’t based on real-world evidence. So I also make sure to show how good things happen in those rare instances that politicians can be convinced to restrain spending.

A review of data for 16 nations reveals that multi-year periods of spending restraint lead to lower fiscal burdens and less red ink.

Between 2009 and 2014, a de facto spending freeze at the federal level dramatically reduced burden of spending in the United States.

Thanks to a constitutional spending cap, Switzerland has shrunk the public sector, balanced its budget and reduced government debt.

Now we have another real-world example to add to our list.

Check out these excerpts from a New York Times story.

A year after Colorado became the first state to allow recreational marijuana sales, millions of tax dollars are rolling in… But a legal snarl may force the state to hand that money back to marijuana consumers, growers and the public — and lawmakers do not want to.

Hmmm…I can understand lawmakers wanting to hold on to other people’s money, but what is meant by “legal snarl”?

Well, it turns out that this is just a way of describing Colorado’s Taxpayer Bill of Rights (TABOR), which imposes caps on how fast the state’s fiscal burden can increase. The reporter from the New York Times writes that this is a “problem,” but taxpayers obviously have a different perspective.

The problem is a strict anti-spending provision in the state Constitution… Technical tripwires in that voter-approved provision, known as the Taxpayer’s Bill of Rights, may require Colorado to refund nearly $60 million…because it collected more than it had anticipated in taxes last year across the board — including construction, oil and gas and other sections of the state’s booming economy. …The complex measure, first approved by voters in 1992, essentially requires that when Colorado collects more money than it had anticipated, it has to give some back to taxpayers.

In other words, the state is collecting plenty of money in taxes, but the politicians are irked they can’t raise spending beyond what’s allowed by TABOR.

And that irks the pro-spending crowd.

Blame lies with the Taxpayer’s Bill of Rights, said Tim Hoover, a spokesman for the Colorado Fiscal Institute, which tracks budget issues in the state. …“It has its own malevolent programming that is really hard to override,” he said.

I obviously don’t agree with Mr. Hoover’s philosophy, but his quote is very powerful evidence that a well-designed spending cap can be effective.

Which is why I cited Colorado’s TABOR back in 2013 as being the best role model in the United States for those who want to genuinely constrain government.

Heck, even the International Monetary Fund now acknowledges that spending caps are the only effective fiscal policy.

By the way, there’s also a Laffer Curve lesson in this story. Echoing what I wrote earlier this year, marijuana tax revenues have been below estimates because the tax rate is too high.

“It’s not that the pot tax came in too high,” said State Senator Pat Steadman, a Democrat who has been trying to write a law that would provide a solution. “It’s that every other revenue came in high.” …Miguel Lopez, who organizes Denver’s annual 4/20 rally — intended to be a giant feel-good festival — said he was sick of what he called high taxes on recreational marijuana. He said they were hurting small stores and helping to keep the black market alive.

Not that we should be surprised. Politicians routinely over-tax tobacco.

And other so-called sin taxes also get set too high, which is a point I made when commenting about a proposed tax on strip clubs in Florida.

“You get a bigger underground economy with high tax rates, which means less revenue than anticipated, and also openings for organized crime and other bad guys,” he said. “Regarding the proposal, I have to imagine that a $25 cover charge, combined with record-keeping, will kill off most strip clubs, so I don’t think they’ll get much money,” Mitchell said. “Customers, presumably, will gravitate to substitute forms of entertainment.”

In the case of Colorado’s pot tax, the “substitute form of entertainment” is simply buying pot in the underground economy.

So the moral of the story, whether looking at spending caps or tax rates, is that politicians are too greedy for their own good.

P.S. What’s the opposite of a spending cap? There are probably a couple of possible answers, but I would pick Obama’s proposed tax-increase “trigger.” Here’s some of what I wrote about that scheme.

Called a “debt failsafe trigger,” Obama’s scheme would automatically raise taxes if politicians spend too much. …Let’s ponder what this means. If politicians in Washington spend too much and cause more red ink, which happens on a routine basis, Obama wants a provision that automatically would raise taxes on the American people.

Fortunately, this was such an awful idea that even gullible GOPers said no. Now if we can keep Republicans from getting seduced into counterproductive tax-hike budget deals, we may actually make some progress!

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Long-run spending caps, such as limiting outlays

cruz-koskinen-ap

Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, left, and IRS Commissioner John Koskinen, right, a known Democrat. (Photos: AP)

I’m not a fan of the IRS or it’s Commissioner, a partisan Democrat named John Koskinen. The agency has become politicized, interfering with America’s political process. Needless to say, I’m not shedding tears that the bureaucracy is no longer getting big budget increases.

By contrast, I oftentimes applaud Senator Ted Cruz. His shutdown fight against Obamacare was a net plus. He was one of the few 2016 candidates who took a strong stand against cronyism in Iowa. And he manages to retain a sense of humor in the fight against big government.

So it’s with considerable chagrin that I feel compelled to admit that IRS boss made a good point, at least from a technical perspective, when he criticized Senator Cruz on the topic of the flat tax.

Here’s the background. A story in Bloomberg quotes Senator Cruz about his goal for tax reform.

“Instead of a tax code that crushes innovation, that imposes burdens on families struggling to make ends meet, imagine a simple flat tax that lets every American fill out his or her taxes on a post card. Imagine abolishing the IRS,” Cruz said.

Now here’s an excerpt from a Politico report about Mr. Koskinen’s response.

IRS Commissioner John Koskinen poked holes in Republican presidential candidate Ted Cruz’s plan to abolish the IRS and create a simple flat tax so taxpayers could file their taxes on a postcard. Koskinen pointed out that even if taxpayers were to file their taxes on “a small card,” someone would have to collect the money and make sure the numbers filled out are actually correct. “You can call [tax collectors] something else than the IRS if that makes you feel better, but basically someone has to follow through on all of that,” Koskinen told reporters today after a speech at the National Press Club.

Koskinen is right. So long as the federal government intends to extract more than $3 trillion from taxpayers, there will be a tax-collection agency. That’s true even if you have a flat tax or a national sales tax.

Sure, you can rename the IRS, or even require states to collect the revenue instead, but none of that changes the fact that some coercive body will exist to take our money.

That being said, Cruz’s overall point surely is correct. The IRS in a flat tax world would be largely de-fanged. Indeed, the Tax Foundation estimated several years ago that compliance costs would drop by more than 94 percent if we replaced the internal revenue code with a flat tax. And, as pointed out in this video, the tax code today is even more complex, so the savings now presumably would be even larger.

So Koskinen may be technically correct, but only because he is focusing the conversation on the narrow issue of whether government will still have a tax-enforcement body.

But Cruz is correct on the big-picture issue of whether the IRS as it exists today will no longer exist.

Since we’re on the topic of tax reform, Amity Shlaes and Matthew Denhart, both with the Calvin Coolidge Presidential Foundation, have a column in today’s Wall Street Journal that is somewhat critical of the Rubio-Lee tax reform plan.

The authors start by pointing out that the defining characteristic of supply-side economicsis lower marginal tax rates on productive behavior (work, saving, investment, risk-taking, entrepreneurship).

Signaling opportunity throughout the tax code has long been the basis of the philosophy known as supply-side economics, or “Reaganomics.” Reaganomics treats even individual wage earners as entrepreneurs. The marginal rate to which a worker is subject under the progressive tax schedule is crucial. A higher rate on the next dollar a worker earns discourages him from working more. The highest tax bracket is especially important as top earners produce the most and innovate the most. …That top marginal rate also functions as a symbol of how society rewards enterprise.

Their unhappiness with Rubio-Lee is due to the fact that their proposal does not contain big rate reductions for labor income to match the very good rate reductions for business and investment income.

…on the personal side their proposal drops the top marginal rate on individual income by a puny 4.6 percentage points, to 35% from 39.6%. …What’s more, Rubio-Lee lowers tax thresholds drastically. Singles with taxable income as low as $75,000 find themselves entering the 35% top bracket; for couples the top rate applies after $150,000. Currently, individuals don’t hit the 35% bracket until $411,501, and the same holds for couples.

So why aren’t there big reductions in tax rates for households to match the very good reforms for businesses? The answer, at least in part, is that “Rubio-Lee also raises the child credit” and this consumes a lot of money, in effect crowding out lower marginal tax rates.

As a result, you get big economic benefits from the reforms to business taxation, but the child credits don’t have any impact on incentives to create wealth, expand jobs, or boost income.

The nonpartisan Tax Foundation recently estimated that Rubio-Lee would increase economic growth so that by 2025 the economy would be 15% larger than otherwise, almost entirely due to business tax cuts. The effect of the child credit on growth is reckoned at zero. 

But imagine if Rubio-Lee took their good tax reform plan and made it better by replacing the child credit with lower rates? And then made it even better by getting rid of additional tax preferences such as the healthcare exclusion?

Shlaes and Denhart quote me in their column as pointing out that if Rubio and Lee made their plan into something akin to the flat tax, the tax rate could be under 20 percent.

Dan Mitchell of the Cato Institute notes that if Rubio-Lee dropped all the preferences it contains, old and new, the plan could drop its top income-tax rate to 20% or lower.

I confess that I don’t have up-to-date estimates to confirm my assertion, but the Clinton Treasury Department back in 1996 estimated that the flat tax rate in a revenue-neutral world would be 20.8 percent.

But since the Rubio-Lee plan is a very large tax cut, amounting to more than $4 trillion over 10 years, combining that amount of tax relief with the flat tax surely would allow the rate to be well below 20 percent.

By the way, none of this should be interpreted to suggest that Rubio-Lee is bad tax policy. It’s a huge improvement over the current system. As I wrote last month, it’s a very good tax reform plan. It is especially good about fixing some of the worst features of the current tax code, such as worldwide taxation,depreciation, and double taxation.

But that doesn’t mean it is as good as the flat tax, which does everything good in Rubio-Lee, but also has a low rate for households and fewer tax preferences.

 

In this way, the IRS boss actually

rand paul and hillary clinton

Libertarian-leaning Sen. Rand Paul, R-Kentucky, left, and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, right. (Photo: Getty)

Though presidential nomination polls have little predictive value at this stage in a cycle, there are a few early trends worth identifying and underscoring. As is often the case, one of them doesn’t at all comport with or resemble the often unwise political wisdom regurgitated by pundits in the D.C. Beltway.

First, the 2016 Republican nomination is poised to be a roller coaster. Whether the candidates’ ups and downs reflect a wide open field for a deep Republican bench is not yet clear. But what is clear is that — even though the Washington Establishment hasn’t taken Sen. Rand Paul (and others) seriously — the American people have.

We reported in April of last year that the GOP donor class was beginning a behind-the-scenes effort to “draft” former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, which prompted Larry Sabato, whom I respect and was utterly shocked by, to rank Bush at the top of the Crystal Ball’s 2016 GOP contender list in March 2014. Then, on April 2, the so-called “mainstream” Republican publication, Cook Political Report, published an article by Amy Walter entitled, “Don’t Call Rand Paul The Frontrunner.”

“Well, if we can’t call Rand Paul the frontrunner, then we definitely cannot call Jeb Bush the frontrunner, either,” I wrote in response. “The prevailing argument for Jeb Bush is an utterly ridiculous, one-tracked argument that generally holds that Jeb Bush is backed by the Establishment’s money, and presidential hopefuls need money.”

I proceeded to argue that “their assessment of how and when a candidate earns the support of the Establishment, as well as their lack of recognition that sometimes they are forced by the voters to get ‘comfortable’ with a nominee they otherwise would not have wanted,” was a flawed analysis.

Sure, it takes money to win a presidential nomination and general election, but juxtaposing the pre-super PAC era to the post-super PAC era very well may prove to be a foolish apples-to-oranges comparison. For now, it’s wise to simply look at the numbers, which consistently show Sen. Rand Paul polls stronger than others against the likely Democratic nominee — Hillary Clinton.

That’s not to say these numbers or the trend won’t change, but Sen. Paul has made serious efforts to reach out to non-traditional GOP voters, and there is at least some evidence to suggest it may be working.

(Note: The aggregate polling below each tab reflects recent polls with the intention to be fair to all candidates, but long-term polling demonstrates the trend even more convincingly.)

[tabs id=”gop-vs-clinton” title=”GOP Hopefuls Vs. Hillary Clinton”] [tab title=”Walker”]

Walker vs. Clinton

Poll Date Sample Clinton (D) Walker (R) Raw Spread
PPD Average 2/20 – 3/31 49.6 40.9 Clinton +8.7
FOX News 3/29 – 3/31 1025 RV 48 42 Clinton +6
ABC News/Wash Post 3/26 – 3/29 RV 54 40 Clinton +14
CNN/Opinion Research 3/13 – 3/15 1009 A 55 40 Clinton +15
McClatchy/Marist 3/1 – 3/4 522 RV 48 44 Clinton +4
Quinnipiac 2/26 – 3/2 1286 RV 48 39 Clinton +9
Rasmussen Reports 2/28 – 3/1 1000 LV 46 41 Clinton +5
PPP (D) 2/20 – 2/22 691 RV 48 40 Clinton +8

PPD named Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker the most likely “Dark Horse” candidate in our election projection model during his third successful reelection bid in 2014. However, he only gained national attention recently after he won widespread praise for his performance at the Iowa Freedom Summit in late January, resulting in a surge in his support among GOP primary voters.

But Gov. Walker has been both a serious candidate and a serious threat to Hillary Clinton before the media even realized it. As we repeated over and over in our 2014 election projection analysis, his Democratic candidate Mary Burke never really stood a chance, which says quite a bit considering politically motivated prosecutions effectively shutdown a large fundraising arm in support of his campaign.

What is it about Gov. Walker that enabled him to drive back three full-on assaults by the progressive left?

We like to call them… Obama-Walker voters, and you can read more about them and their impact on the Wisconsin governor race.

They are exactly what they sound like they are. These are voters who supported Walker in his three election bids, particularly in the recall and 2014 races, but voted for President Obama over both John McCain and Mitt Romney. They represent roughly 6 – 8 percent of the Wisconsin electorate, and demographically speaking, give Republicans a real chance to turn the battleground state map on its head in 2016.

With Walker as the Republican nominee, Democrats are likely to find themselves defending Midwest states they haven’t defended since President George H.W. Bush defeated Gov. Dukakis in 1988.

Nevertheless, as of now, Americans outside of Republican circles remain largely unfamiliar with Walker, and the head-to-head matchup polling between him and Hillary reflect just that. It is a crucial time for him and other little-known GOP hopefuls, which is why the media are racing to define him before the voters get a chance to know him.

[/tab]

[tab title=”Bush”]

Bush vs. Clinton

Poll Date Sample MoE Clinton (D) Bush (R) Raw Spread
PPD Average 2/20 – 3/31 48.9 40.9 Clinton +8.0
FOX News 3/29 – 3/31 1025 RV 3.0 45 45 Tie
ABC News/Wash Post 3/26 – 3/29 RV 4.0 53 41 Clinton +12
CNN/Opinion Research 3/13 – 3/15 1009 A 3.0 55 40 Clinton +15
McClatchy/Marist 3/1 – 3/4 514 RV 4.3 49 42 Clinton +7
Quinnipiac 2/26 – 3/2 1286 RV 2.7 45 42 Clinton +3
Rasmussen Reports 2/28 – 3/1 1000 LV 3.0 45 36 Clinton +9
PPP (D) 2/20 – 2/22 691 RV 3.7 50 40 Clinton +10

The same cannot be said of former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, who has substantially higher negatives and name recognition. That’s not to say the brother of the 43rd president cannot change these early numbers, but having “Bush” after your first name with be difficult to overcome in a general election, even if Hillary ends up being the nominee.

Still, as PPD previously examined, the donor class and notoriously inaccurate pollsters may be excited over another Bush running for the White House, but Republican voters aren’t. CNN/Opinion Research, which according to the PPD Pollster Scorecard is in desperate need of retooling, has consistently found Mr. Bush ahead of the crowded 2016 field. But our research suggests another Bush candidacy has the potential to seriously depress voter turnout. Though the most recent ABC News/WaPo Poll indicated the same, the trend has been present since Dec. 2014.

Not surprisingly, despite high unfavorable ratings, Bush’s name recognition has made a head-to-head matchup with Clinton a too-close-to-call race (in some polls).

[/tab]

[tab title=”Paul”]

Paul vs. Clinton

Poll Date Sample MoE Clinton (D) Paul (R) Raw Spread
PPD Average 2/20 – 3/31 49.2 41.8 Clinton +7.4
FOX News 3/29 – 3/31 1025 RV 3.0 47 45 Clinton +2
CNN/Opinion Research 3/13 – 3/15 1009 A 3.0 54 43 Clinton +11
McClatchy/Marist 3/1 – 3/4 514 RV 4.3 51 40 Clinton +11
Quinnipiac 2/26 – 3/2 1286 RV 2.7 47 41 Clinton +6
PPP (D) 2/20 – 2/22 691 RV 3.7 47 40 Clinton +7

Dan Mitchell, a senior fellow at the CATO Institute and near-daily PPD contributor, recently joked that being libertarian is like being the only sober person in the car, who no one lets drive. I found that extremely humorous and, even more so, to be true. But, in the case of Sen. Paul, it may actually not turn out to be applicable.

Unlike previous libertarian and libertarian-leaning candidates, including his father, Sen. Paul has a far better shot at winning the nomination and a general election that other pundits want to admit. PPD first began to report in 2013 that Mr. Paul’s efforts to draw conventional Democratic voters into his camp was proving effective. Even when Sen. Rubio was receiving all of the attention, with Karl Rove and others praising him as the party’s savior, it was only Sen. Paul who was running ahead of her nationwide in 2013.

The same in true of recent battleground state polling in Colorado and New Hampshire, two states where Paul’s stance on civil liberties draws significant support from young voters who might otherwise vote Democratic.

Mr. Bush might be betting everything on the Granite State primary, when large numbers of Democrat and Democrat-leaning voters can flood the primary to put him over the edge, but I remain unconvinced he can put together the same coalition that carried the state for his brother in 2000.

These same voters turned on his brother and backed John Kerry in 2004, and they did so largely because of the issues Mr. Paul champions. These are the issues that may cause younger Liberty Movement voters to stay home in 2016.

The bottom line: Sen. Paul has consistently run stronger than other GOP hopefuls against Hillary Clinton, and has demonstrated the greatest potential to expand the party’s appeal.[/tab]

[tab title=”Cruz”]

Cruz vs. Clinton

Poll Date Sample MoE Clinton (D) Cruz (R) Raw Spread
PPD Average 2/20 – 3/31 51.0 39.6 Clinton +11.4
FOX News 3/29 – 3/31 1025 RV 3.0 48 42 Clinton +6
ABC News/Wash Post 3/26 – 3/29 RV 4.0 56 39 Clinton +17
McClatchy/Marist 3/1 – 3/4 514 RV 4.3 53 39 Clinton +14
Quinnipiac 2/26 – 3/2 1286 RV 2.7 48 38 Clinton +10
PPP (D) 2/20 – 2/22 691 RV 3.7 50 40 Clinton +10

Texas Sen. Ted Cruz was the first GOP hopeful to officially announce his candidacy for president, and has raised in an impressive amount of money from grassroots donors since the speech. Love him or hate him, no one can deny he is extraordinary talented and articulate.

Most importantly, he is drastically underestimated.

One statement caught my ear over all others during his speech, which referenced the 30-plus out of 80-plus million evangelical Christians that actually vote. He is right, and the party knows he is right, which is why RNC Chair Reince Priebus kicked efforts to increase their turnout into high gear.

There have been two polls since Cruz gave his announcement speech, ABC News/WaPo and FOX News. The former’s final generic ballot poll had a better predictive value than the latter’s, but on average, had an inexplicable Democratic slant in their 2014 state polling. It’s safe to say that the increased support for Cruz in recent weeks is not pollster bias, but rather a genuine gain.

[/tab]

[tab title=”Rubio”]

Rubio vs. Clinton

Poll Date Sample Clinton (D) Rubio (R) Raw Spread
PPD Average 2/20 – 3/31 49.8 41.3 Clinton +8.5
FOX News 3/29 – 3/31 1025 RV 47 43 Clinton +4
ABC News/Wash Post 3/26 – 3/29 RV 54 39 Clinton +15
CNN/Opinion Research 3/13 – 3/15 1009 A 55 42 Clinton +13
McClatchy/Marist 3/1 – 3/4 522 RV 49 42 Clinton +7
Quinnipiac 2/26 – 3/2 1286 RV 46 41 Clinton +5
PPP (D) 2/20 – 2/22 691 RV 48 41 Clinton +7

Following the loss of Mitt Romney, which was in part due to his abysmal performance among Hispanics, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio soon appeared to many to be the party’s last hope of capturing the White House.

As I stated then and will repeat now, I’ve never subscribed to this theory, largely because the hype over the Hispanic vote was completely overblown. Sure, Republicans must perform better among minorities if they hope to win future presidential elections, but simply being Hispanic doesn’t earn their vote.

That said, even though he drew a large amount of media coverage over his support for immigration and the aforementioned Washington-driven narrative, Rubio still has a long way to go introducing himself to America. Considering his talent, presence and ability to articulate his message, he has significant room to grow.

[/tab]

[tab title=”Huckabee”]

Huckabee vs. Clinton

Poll Date Sample MoE Clinton (D) Huckabee (R) Spread
RCP Average 2/20 – 3/15 50.7 40.7 Clinton +10.0
CNN/Opinion Research 3/13 – 3/15 1009 A 3.0 55 41 Clinton +14
Quinnipiac 2/26 – 3/2 1286 RV 2.7 47 40 Clinton +7
PPP (D) 2/20 – 2/22 691 RV 3.7 50 41 Clinton +9

Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee was once the frontrunner in the polls, no doubt in large part due to his name recognition. However, strangely, he has also been omitted from many national polls. FOX News had good reason, considering he only recently announced he was leaving his weekend talk show on the network to avoid a conflict of interest.

We will reserve judgement until further polling data is available to examine and digest.

[/tab] [/tabs]

In closing, it is important to note that — regardless of whether Sen. Paul wins the Republican nomination or not — his candidacy will have an enormous impact on the Republican Party. Paul not only won three consecutive CPAC straw polls, but he did so at a time when the conference underwent a dramatic demographic shift.

CPAC 2015 saw a record-breaking 11,344 in attendance, with the straw poll results coming from 3007 participants, a 20 percent increase from the year prior. Over 42 percent in the poll were students who came from all across the country, marking the greatest number of youth voters to ever participate in the CPAC straw poll.

It is certainly true that the conference is comprised of activists and doesn’t necessary reflect the current voter bloc, but it does reflect the future and energy of the party, which bodes bad for the media, big donors and the Establishment.

In January, Paul advanced his unconventional efforts by hiring Chip Englander, the former campaign manager for Illinois Republican Bruce Rauner, who defeated incumbent Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn last November.

The GOP Establishment’s consultant class quietly (and sometimes publicly) mocked Rauner for reaching out to traditional Democratic voters, including inner-city minorities, many of whom endorsed and subsequently voted for him. Rauner, who PPD accurately predicted would win, proved the talking heads wrong.

We shall soon see if Sen. Paul will do the same.

Despite weekly media hyping of candidates, Sen.

labor market jobs

Job seekers navigate through a better labor market but still teetering economy. (Photo: REUTERS)

The Labor Department reported Friday that U.S. job creation cratered in March adding just 126,000 to nonfarm payrolls, while unemployment remained at 5.5 percent. The labor force participation rate, employment-to-population ratio and wages, all barely moved from their abysmal readings.

The government also announced sharp downward revisions for the prior two months, suggesting the labor market had been stumbling far before economists initially expected.

“Incorporating the revisions for January and February, which reduced nonfarm employment by 69,000, monthly job gains have averaged 197,000 over the past 3 months,” said Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Commissioner Erica L. Groshen. “In the 12 months prior to March, employment growth averaged 269,000 per month.”

In March, the civilian labor force participation rate was little changed again at 62.7 percent, remaining at its 36-year low. Since April 2014, the participation rate has remained within a narrow range of 62.7 percent to 62.9 percent.

The less-reported but more important employment-to-population ratio was unchanged at 59.3 percent, where it has now been for the third consecutive month.

Among the 8.6 million counted by BLS as unemployed, the number of new entrants decreased by 157,000 in March and is down by 342,000 over the year. Further, the number of long-term unemployed — or, those jobless for 27 weeks or more — was again unchanged at 2.6 million in March, and accounted for 29.8 percent of the total unemployed.

The U.S. economy continues to remain a part-time economy, which is explaining a good deal of the stagnant wage growth. Industries providing higher-paying, full-time work were stagnant this month. Employment in these major industries, including construction, manufacturing, wholesale trade, transportation and warehousing, information, and financial activities showed little change over the month.

The mining industry, which includes support for oil and gas extraction, declined by 11,000 in March. The industry has lost 30,000 jobs thus far in 2015.

Not surprisingly, the number of persons employed part time for economic reasons — referred to as involuntary part-time workers — was unchanged in March at 6.7 million. These are Americans who want full-time employment, but were working part time either because their hours had been cut back or because they were simply unable to find a full-time job.

Among the 2.1 million Americans marginally attached to the labor force, 738,000 were discouraged workers in March, or those who have quit on the American dream because they don’t believe there is a job for them in the labor market.

Real unemployment, which factors in those previously mentioned, fell slightly to 10.9 percent.

The Federal Reserve policy-making committee (FOMC) has said it won’t start raising interest rates until it reaches its dual mandate of full employment (5.2%-5.6%) and price stability due to sustainable inflation growth (1.7%-2%). While the unemployment rate has allegedly met the prerequisite range, the inflation target has remains stubbornly elusive. Inflation isn’t likely to move higher until now-stagnant wages increase significantly.

The Labor Department reported Friday that U.S.

iran-deal-press-conference

The EU’s foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini, center, and Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif, right. FABRICE COFFRINI/AFP/Getty Images

The details of the Iran nuclear deal remain elusive, but what we do know isn’t being truthfully conveyed to the American people by President Obama, or the media (including FOX). The Obama administration gave us all in the media a “fact sheet” shortly before the president’s press conference, which claimed victory on a host of issues that are either spun to be misleading, at best, or flat-out lies.

Immediately following the president’s claims, Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif took to Twitter to accuse the White House of lying to the American people, bashing the so-called “fact sheet.”

He didn’t stop there. Let’s take a look at one of the most controversial issues — and the one that is perhaps surrounded by the most deception — which the Iranian foreign minister exposed.

Economic Sanctions

The administration previously and repeatedly argued that the economic sanctions were not completely dismantled, nor would they be until it was verified that Iran had stopped pursuing a bomb. And they did so again Thursday, while the media regurgitated the narrative.

“Iran will receive sanctions relief, if it verifiably abides by its commitments,” the White House fact sheet reads. “U.S. and E.U. nuclear-related sanctions will be suspended after the IAEA has verified that Iran has taken all of its key nuclear-related steps. If at any time Iran fails to fulfill its commitments, these sanctions will snap back into place. ”

Sadly, the Iranian foreign minister is being more truthful to the American people and the world than the United States government, and the state-run media outlets.

The language of the agreed upon statement explicitly states the EU will immediately terminate sanctions, while the U.S. sanctions are a bit more vague. It reads as follows:

The European Union will terminate the implementation of all nuclear-related economic and financial sanctions and the United States will cease the application of all nuclear-related secondary economic and financial sanctions simultaneously with the IAEA-verified implementation by Iran of its key nuclear commitments.

However, the very next statement agrees to terminate all previous resolutions regarding sanctions on the regime in Tehran as a response to their nuclear program. It reads as follows:

A new UN Security Council resolution will endorse the JCPOA, terminate all previous nuclear-related resolutions, and incorporate certain restrictive measures for a mutually agreed period of time. We will now work to write the text of a joint comprehensive plan of action including its technical details in the coming weeks and months at the political and experts level. We are committed to complete our efforts by June 30.

Clearly, all bets are off on Iran’s end if the U.S. does not drop their previously installed sanctions. So, this would appear to be a clear CYA that allows the administration to claim a falsehood.

Current Enrichment Facilities

On the issue of current enrichment facilities and locations, sadly, there just isn’t enough to draw a serious conclusion. Considering the administration’s lack of truthfulness in the past on this and a host of other issues, it is wise for the American people to hold tight to their skepticism.

The agreement centers on the facilities in Arak and Natanz, the latter of the two will still spin some 6,000-plus centrifuges. Arak will not produce weapons-grade plutonium, anymore, and will be converted into a modernized heavy water research reactor with the help of the international community.

What is to stop Iran from taking Western technology and then tossing out inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency?

Nothing.

“The International Atomic Energy Agency will be permitted the use of modern technologies and will have announced access through agreed procedures including to clarify past and present issues,” the statement reads. “Iran will take part in international cooperation in the field of civilian nuclear energy which can include supply of power and research reactors. Another important area of cooperation will be in the field of nuclear safety and security.”

Not to be a bubble-burster to those celebrating the framework of the Iran nuclear deal, but this mirrors their past obligation that they did not follow in the first place, which led to the economic sanction imposition that no longer stands. Of course, the same sanction imposition that got them to the table in the first place, is no longer a threat to them. They have successfully legitimized a long-time delegitimate nuclear program that is more likely than not to set off a nuclear arms race is the least stable region on planet Earth.

Tehran declared another victory yesterday to cheering Shiite militias. Unfortunately, they have reason to celebrate, not us.

And shame on the American media, including the so-called adversarial and conservative news outlet FOX News, for not telling you the truth.

The details of the Iran nuclear deal

After writing about such an emotionally charged issue yesterday, let’s change the topic and enjoy a bit of levity.

I’ve shared several examples of anti-libertarian humor, most of which are fairly clever because they seize on something that is sort of true and take it to the preposterous extreme.

Here’s something with a different flavor. It basically mocks libertarians for being naively idealistic youngsters who then “grow up” and stop being libertarian.

There’s enough truth to this that I laughed, though I think the trait of being overly idealistic probably applies to all politically minded young people.

I remember thinking “let’s abolish Social Security overnight” in my younger years, whereas now I think we need to transition to a system of personal retirement accounts.

Is this a sign that I’ve “grown up” and that I’m no longer libertarian, or is it simply a recognition that progress sometimes has to be incremental if we want to achieve libertarian goals?

I think the latter, so I don’t think the image is accurate. But it’s still funny.

Now let’s share some pro-libertarian humor, adding to an unfortunately small collection (here, here, and here).

Though I guess it’s only pro-libertarian by process of elimination because it describes what it’s like when people other than libertarians are in charge of government policy.

And since there’s plenty to criticize when looking at both Republicans and Democrats, you can see why this is appealing.

Now let’s close with some humor produced by libertarians. The always-clever crowd at Reason TV snagged an interview with President Obama. Sort of, keeping in mind that this video was released on April 1.

I especially like the jabs at Biden at the end.

And since I shared my collection of Obama jokes at the bottom of this recent post, let’s take this opportunity to recycle (and re-enjoy) these examples of Biden humor.

We have this caption contest, which led to a clever winning entry.

Here’s an amusing joke (with the naughty word redacted), and the late-night talk shows have produced some good one liners about the Veep hereherehere, and here.

And let’s not forget the laughs we all enjoyed when he asserted that paying higher taxes was patriotic.

Last but not least, Biden is (in)famous for his self-defense advice and he also featured in a few of these amusing posters.

Libertarian CATO Institute economist and senior fellow

John Kerry, Mohammad Javad Zarif

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry, second from left, meets with Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, second from right, for a new round of nuclear negotiations Wednesday, March 4, 2015, in Montreux, Switzerland. (Photo: AP/Evan Vucci, Pool)

The U.S. and other remaining international negotiators have reportedly agreed to the outlines of a preliminary deal to move to the final round of Iran talks. The Associated Press reported on the agreement, while noting that negotiators are still in a dispute over the degree of secrecy the public stomach.

The officials spoke on the condition of anonymity as the week-long talks have now run through the long-anticipated March 31 deadline. The last-minute effort, which France and China had all but given up on, was to formulate a general statement of what has been accomplished and document what the sides need to do by the end of the June deadline.

Swiss officials told the AP a news conference has been scheduled for later in the day, which is expected to announce the results of the talks, though again, secrecy can be expected surrounding the details of the framework.

The fate of the Iran talks has been uncertain, particularly in recent days, as U.S. lawmakers grew more worried Tehran was making unreasonable demands. Many even urged the U.S. delegation to “walk away” from the negotiating table, which White House Press Secretary John Earnest had sought to reassure critics the administration was willing to do.

Pressured by congressional critics in the U.S. who threaten to impose new sanctions on Iran over what they say is a bad emerging deal, the Obama administration is demanding significant public disclosure of agreements and understandings reached at the current round. However, officials claim the Iranian regime wants a minimal amount to be made public.

The officials also caution that the results reached in Lausanne, Switzerland may be less than a deal and more of an informal understanding.

The U.S. and other remaining international negotiators

People's Pundit Daily
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