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Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker speaks at the Iowa Freedom Forum on January 24, 2015. (Photo: Getty Images)

More than 1,000 religious conservatives met at the Iowa Freedom Forum Saturday to hear 10 hours of speeches from likely 2016 Republican candidates for president. So, which one made their case to the first in the nation primary caucus state voters, and the nation?

The Biggest Winner

First, rather than get into highlights from the candidates’ speeches, PPD projects the clear winner to be Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker. For a variety of reasons, including delivering what a majority of activists we spoke with felt was a flawless speech, Walker’s performance excelled even our expectations.

That’s worth noting, because he was the potential 2016 president candidate PPD previously named the upcoming cycle’s dark house, for crying out loud.

“It was a clear Walker victory. He had expectations coming in here, he was on everyone’s shortlist and he had to meet those expectations and I thought he far exceeded them,” said former Iowa Republican Party political director Craig Robinson. “I thought his speech was just perfect, and I thought his delivery was perfect. The delivery really surprised me.”

Fair or not, because of his former role, Mr. Robinson is seen by some as a more establishment voice in the party, but Walker impressed even the most conservative advocates.

“That’s the first time I’ve ever heard him live and he was tremendous. It was a great speech,” said well-known Iowan conservative Sam Clovis, the party’s 2014 nominee for state treasurer. “That was something special.”

Clovis’ statement is one we frequently hear from Walker’s first-time observers. While mainstream media outlets, including FOX News, have a tendency to portray Walker as vanilla, you will hear a very different take from others who either have had the chance to speak with the governor in person, at a campaign event or have heard one of his speeches.

On the issue of specific policy prescriptions, not everyone was completely thrilled.

“He was very personable,” Iowa conservative radio host Steve Deace told The Hill. “When the questions were about his resume he was really good because he has a pretty good resume. When the questions got into a broader context about policies beyond his resume his answers were pretty canned, pretty typical formula talking points.”

Deace interviewed Walker on Saturday, and did say “he’ll have to provide a lot more substance on issues than when I got a chance to talk to him.”

But that’s not entirely what this forum was meant to do, but rather candidates are expected to sketch their vision for their own campaign and ultimately the country in the minds of caucus-goers, who can draw a reasonable conclusion on candidates like Gov. Walker, because both his electoral and governing track records in Wisconsin are both conservative and strong.

“You see, I think that sends a powerful message to Republicans in Washington and around the country that if you’re not afraid to go big and go bold you can actually get results,” Walker said during his speech, which included touting his social (late-term abortion restrictions) and fiscal (tax cuts from budget surplus) accomplishments, naming the threat from “radical Islamic terrorists” and his pro-Second Amendment record.

Yet, despite detractors, most flat-out disagreed with Deace, including Iowa Republican National Committeeman Steve Scheffler, who met with Walker last week at the Republican National Committee’s winter meeting in San Diego.

“He was quite impressive in terms of him talking about specifics about what he’s done in Wisconsin and the kind of leader he was,” said Scheffler. “People want somebody like him who has a track record and isn’t afraid to take on the powers that be, whether that be Scott Walker or whoever.”

The Biggest Losers

Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and 2012 Republican nominee Mitt Romney were the two biggest losers coming out of the event Saturday. First of all, neither of the two, arguably most-recognizable potential candidates even bothered to show up. Second, they were absolutely skewered by billionaire TV personality and potential candidate Donald Trump, whose argument that the party needs to move forward, not look back to the past, was well-received by the crowd.

“You can’t have Romney. He choked,” Trump said. “You can’t have Bush. The last thing we need is another Bush.”

While a recent Gravis Marketing Poll found Romney (21 percent) and Bush (14 percent) ahead of Walker, who came in third at 10 percent, Trump spoke to the dominant sentiment in the activist base of today’s Republican Party, nationwide.

A recent PPD Poll found that a Bush candidacy would depress Republican voter turnout. A slim majority of Republican and Republican-leaning independents — 51 percent — said they are less likely to vote in 2016 if Jeb Bush is the nominee, and 48 percent of registered voters say they definitely will not vote for another Bush.

Further, just 29 percent of Republicans say the former Florida governor should run for president in 2016, but even among these voters, just 14 percent say they will definitely vote for Bush in their state primary or caucus.

Similarly, a recent Rasmussen survey of a 1,000 likely Republican voters found just 33 percent believe Bush should run for president in 2016, while just as many (34 percent) disagree, and another 33 percent are not sure.

Ultimately, both Romney and Bush will have a difficult time connecting with Main Street American voters, a gift even Mr. Trump possesses more so than either of them. But, Gov. Walker and Gov. Walker alone Saturday showed that he can be the candidate with unquestionable conservative credentials, as well as the ability to broadly convey an appealing conservative message.

The GOP’s 2016 candidate must make the case they can appeal to not only traditional Republican voters, but that bloc of voters PPD has dubbed Obama-Walker voters (voters who backed Walker in 2010, the recall and 2014, but not Romney in 2012), a group whose demographic composition is not only found in Wisconsin, but throughout the battleground states.

“Walker found a way to talk about himself, talk about the country and talk about Iowa in perfect proportionality, and he did so with a style that was very easy and engaging,” said Republican pollster Frank Luntz. “He connected to these people — you could see it.”

More than 1,000 religious conservatives met at

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Patriots Quarterback Tom Brady answers questions during a press conference on so-called Deflate-Gate on January 22, 2015. (Photo: AP)

The number of big NFL names publicly stating Tom Brady either knew or likely knew all but one of the footballs submitted by the New England Patriots were deflated, is growing.

Former Steelers wide receiver Hines Ward was among the first to throw out the claim, telling the Today show on Wednesday that the only people who knew about Deflategate were likely “Tom Brady and the ball boy.”

But Ward is a wide receiver, and with former Washington Redskins quarterback Joe Theismann characterizing the weight difference as “negligible,” and “not that big a deal,” perceived opinions remained split.

“You really have to push it to feel the difference in it. It’s negligible, as far as I’m concerned, I can’t see it. Maybe it feels a little softer to people.” He said media hype over the under-inflated footballs was “not a big deal. A rules violation, yes, but not that big a deal.”

Then, the first big quarterback name made a strong statement in contrast to Theismann.

“It’s obvious that Tom Brady had something to do with this,” former Cowboys quarterback Troy Aikman told KTCK-AM in Dallas Thursday. “For the balls to be deflated, that doesn’t happen unless the quarterback wants that to happen, I can assure you of that.”

Since that comment, more and more have drawn the same conclusion: While it most assuredly did not chance the outcome of the game, Patriots quarterback Tom Brady is to blame for Deflate-Gate.

“That would have to be driven by the quarterback,” Hall of Fame coach John Madden said Wednesday on Sports Xchange. “That’s something that wouldn’t be driven by a coach or just the equipment guy. Nobody, not even the head coach, would do anything to a football unilaterally, such as adjust the amount of pressure in a ball, without the quarterback not knowing. It would have to be the quarterback’s idea.”

Under NFL rules, footballs must weigh at least 12.5 pounds per square inch (PSI). The NFL is expected to issue a ruling by the end of the week, but according to Brady, the league has yet to talk to him. Brady said as much Thursday during a press conference, when he defended himself against the charges.

“I didn’t alter the ball in any way,” Brady said. “I would never do anything outside of the rules of play.”

To be fair, none of the tested balls were even used during the second half of the game, which was complete and total domination by the New England Patriots. But to those who contend otherwise, including Ward, Aikman and Madding, all of whom made the statements they made prior to Brady’s presser, the issue isn’t that cut-and-dry.

“It’s cheating,” Ward said. “Regardless of how you may want to spin it. It helps Tom Brady, provides a better grip on the football, especially in bad weather conditions like rain.”

[caption id="attachment_21858" align="aligncenter" width="630"] Patriots Quarterback Tom

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Patriots Quarterback Tom Brady answers questions during a press conference on so-called Deflate-Gate on January 22, 2015. (Photo: AP)

A lot of people are making hay over the Patriots and the saga of the flattened footballs. Unfortunately, like most media hysteria, ultimately nothing will come of it, because most people don’t like confrontation.

They all would rather be happy little automatons and label people who tell the truth as “negative” and troublemakers, then go on with their lives living with the lies. Someone with access to the Patriots’ equipment tampered with it to give that team an edge — supposedly lowering the ball pressure.

That’s cheating. But was it deliberate or simply poor controls that were taken advantage of?

Here’s what probably happened: The ball boy prepped the footballs the way the Quarterback Tom Brady liked them, not realizing they were almost two pounds light. They submitted them to the refs and the refs didn’t carefully check the footballs weight and pressure, like they should have, because they were careless and because it never was an issue in the past. When the complaints hit, that’s when they checked them and found they were light.

That’s it.

Is it fair? No. Did the Patriots probably get a benefit? Yes. Would it have altered the outcome? Possibly. Has it happened before? Perhaps. Was it deliberate? We will never know because no one really wants to know.

It really sucks for everyone — the fans, the game and the Patriots if you think about it. No matter what, everyone is going to say they cheated– and maybe they did.

But what do you do? You can’t have them not go to the Super Bowl unless you prove a case, not to mention that ship has sailed insofar as money and planning.

Unless the investigation gets someone to say “Yah the Patriots deliberately did this” you’re going to have a tough sell to punish them, too.

In the end they will probably review all the ball prep procedures and make the referees more responsible. Ultimately, it’s just another black eye on an already embattled sport, and most people connected with the sport would just as soon see this scandal go away.

As I said, even though everyone says they want the truth, no one is prepared to deal with the consequences of it and prefer to live with the lie.

That’s the real scandal.

Thomas Purcell is nationally syndicated columnist, author of the book “Shotgun Republic” and is host of the Liberty Never Sleeps podcast. More of his work can be found at LibertyNeverSleeps.com.

[mybooktable book=”shotgun-republic” display=”summary”]

Media are making hay over the Patriots

“Chris Kyle is a true American hero,” Judge Jeanine Pirro said Saturday in her Opening Statement, which she used to rip Hollywood’s reaction to American Sniper. Last week, radical leftist filmmaker Michael Moore received fallout from a tweet suggesting Kyle was a “coward,” because in Moore’s experience (which is none), “snipers were cowards.”

The tweet drew a harsh response, including one from Medal of Honor recipient Dakota Meyer, who posted a response trashing Moore, stating “cowards are people who didn’t have the guts to serve, and are happy to sit back in a free and protected country and call our service members cowards.”

Judge Jeanine was no less harsh on the Hollywood crowd, targeting Moore by name, as well.

“Michael, you woke a sleeping giant…the American Spirit” said Pirro.

(Video: H/T RightSightings)

"Chris Kyle is a true American hero,"

sen-bob- menendez-iran-sanctions

FILE – In this Sept. 4, 2013, file photo, Sen. Robert Menendez, D-N.J. speaks at Capitol Hill in Washington. Key Democratic and Republican senators are crafting legislation to reinstate the full force of Iran sanctions and impose new ones if Tehran doesnât make good on its pledge to roll back its nuclear program, brushing aside the Obama administrationâs fears about upending its diplomatic momentum. Menendez and Sen. Mark Kirk, R-Ill., hope to have the bill ready for other lawmakers to consider when the Senate returns Dec. 9 from its two-week recess, according to legislative aides. (AP Photo/Susan Walsh) (A2013)

Sen. Bob Menendez (D-N.J.), the ranking Democrat on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, slammed President Obama for opposing the Iran sanctions bill. During the State of the Union speech, Obama claimed “we’ve halted the progress of its nuclear program and reduced its stockpile of nuclear material,” and promised to veto the bill if it passes because it would “all but guarantee that diplomacy fails.”

The Democratic senator said the president’s talking points on Iran sound as if they are “straight out of Tehran.”

“The more I hear from the administration and its quotes, the more it sounds like talking points that come straight out of Tehran,” Sen. Menedez said during a committee hearing this week. “And it feeds to the Iranian narrative of victimization, when they are the ones with the original sin.”

The president argues that new sanctions would jeopardize the negotiations, a claim he made prior during a joint press conference with British Prime Minister David Cameron on Jan. 16. It was revealed at the conference that Cameron was actively lobbying members of Congress on the issue, making unprecedented phone calls to U.S. Senators to make the case against voting for the bipartisan bill crafted jointly with Sen. Mark Kirk (R-Ill.), a top target for Democrats in 2016 and the man who took Obama’s seat in 2010.

The negotiations, which include the so-called “P5+1” — Britain, China, France, Germany and Russia — began with the first phone call in 30 years between the two nations, with President Obama and Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani speaking in Sept., 2013. The two leaders agreed to a 6-month interim agreement that is now long-expired with no progress. The latest Nov. 24 deadline came and went with no deal, but the Obama administration continues to give the Iranian regime more time.

The Menedez-Kirk bill calls for the imposition of sanctions worth $1 billion each month if the talks do not result in an acceptable agreement by June 30. It would also require the Obama administration to certify every 30 days that Iran is adhering to the terms of the 6-month interim agreement and that it hasn’t been involved in any act of terrorism against the United States.

Meanwhile, Iran has already enriched enough uranium to quickly produce two bombs, and is expected to have enough enriched uranium to produce a third bomb by June, the very month the new deadline expires. Under the interim agreement, Iran continues to enrich uranium to 3.5 percent purity in unlimited quantities, or approximately 60 percent of the purity needed to produce weapons-grade material.

The agreement also allows Iran to continue work at the Arak heavy-water reactor, where they are enriching plutonium for nuclear weapons and, nearby, manufacture parts that can quickly be assembled and moved to make the reactor capable of enriching weapons-grade plutonium.

The Iranians also have announced they will build two more light-water plutonium reactors, and continue to develop an Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles system to deliver the bomb, which recent analyses estimate will be complete by the end of this year.

If the Menendez coalition in the Senate can garner enough support, it would mark the first time Congress overrode Obama’s presidential veto. But is it likely, or even possible?

“There’s overwhelming support to toughen up the sanctions,” said Chuck Schumer (R-N.Y.), a member of Democratic leadership who co-sponsored sanctions legislation last year. “The question is when. At times in the past the president asked for a little time, until March. That’s something people are looking at.”

Out of the Democrats left in the upper chamber post-2014 midterm elections, 11 Senate Democrats have co-sponsored Iran sanctions legislation with Sen. Menendez. If they all vote with the ranking member to overturn Obama’s veto, then the Menendez-Kirk bill would need just 1 more Democrat if all Republicans hold steady.

But that’s a big if.

Sens. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) and Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.) said earlier this month they would give the Obama administration time to reach a deal. Sen. Flake signaled during the committee hearing this week that he was willing to wait until the June deadline, but both senators gave statements blurring up their intentions.

“Senator Paul has supported previous sanctions, and believes they have helped bring Iran to the table,” a Paul spokeswoman said in a statement. “The timing of this vote is important in relation to ongoing diplomatic negotiations is important, and since he can’t determine when it will be brought up, he will for now keep an open mind on the bill.”

As with Paul, Flake’s willingness to wait isn’t infinite.

“Talks on implementation of the Nov. 24 agreement are ongoing, but time is running out,” Flake’s office said in an email. “If Iran is simply using this as another stalling tactic, further congressional action will be warranted.”

Still, even if the GOP senators come home, Democrats who previously supported the measure are getting weak in the knees.

“I’m considering very seriously the very cogent points that he’s made in favor of delaying any congressional action,” said Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.). “I’m talking to colleagues on both sides of the aisle. And I think they are thinking, and rethinking, their positions in light of the points that the president and his team are making to us.”

Translation: Obama called and smacked us down. It wouldn’t be the first time this month. President Obama told Senate Democrats in a private meeting on Jan. 15 that he intended to “play offense” with the new GOP-majority Congress, and any Democrat not aboard with Team Left. According to reports, Sen. Menendez and Obama traded “sharp words” over the issue at the meeting.

The Democratic Party will have to decide if they want to be the party of nuclear proliferation. Hillary Clinton joined Obama in opposing new sanctions, calling them “a very serious strategic error.”

“Had she taken a tougher line, she might actually have proved herself more than the Obama lackey she was during her tenure as secretary of state,” Linda Chavez, the chair of the Center for Equal Opportunity, a non-profit public policy research organization, said last week.

Chavez, who applauded Menendez for his stance, said Democrats would be putting America at risk if they chose to be good team players. Whatever happens, there is widespread bipartisan agreement that the Congress will have to act if the talks, which Obama said had “less than a 50 percent chance of success,” don’t produce by June. If they do not, the New Jersey senator will undoubtedly contribute the failure to a weak hand played by the Obama administration, and a policy of making excuses for Iran in the hope to show good faith.

“An illicit nuclear weapons program going back over the course of 20 years that they are unwilling to come clean on,” Sen. Menendez said. “So, I don’t know why we feel compelled to make their case when, in fact they get to cheat in a series of ways and we get to worry about their perceptions.”

Sen. Bob Menendez (D-N.J.), the ranking Democrat

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Sens. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), left, Rand Paul (R-Ky.), center, and Ted Cruz (R-Texas), right. (Photos: AP)

Likely 2016 Republican candidates Sens. Rand Paul (R-Ky.), Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), and Ted Cruz (R-Texas) will debate each other on a panel Sunday in Palm Springs, Calif.

Dubbed the “American Recovery Policy Forum,” the panel is part of the winter meeting of the conservative, free-market group Freedom Partners that will be moderated by ABC’s Jonathan Karl.

“Our members care deeply about the future of our nation and we’re honored to host some of today’s most influential and respected leaders in shaping public policy,” James Davis, a spokesman for the group, said in a statement. “We hope that this panel will give each participant the opportunity to lay out their vision for a more free and prosperous society.”

Sen. Rubio, , clashed with Sen. Paul last month after President Obama moved to normalize diplomatic relations with Cuba, and they will now appear side-by-side at the event Sunday.

“As with so many others opining on the situation, Sen. Paul doesn’t know what he is talking about,” Sen. Rubio said in an interview.

Rubio took several steps toward launching a presidential run this week. He asked his top advisors to prepare for a campaign, and hired big-dog Republican fundraiser Anna Rogers, who is currently the finance director for American Crossroads, the conservative group started by Karl Rove that raised more than $200 million over the past two elections.

Rubio will meet on Friday and Saturday at the Delano Hotel in Miami with 300 supporters and donors to fund his Reclaim America PAC and discuss his plans for his political future. According to his monthly schedule, he is also planning to travel to early-voting states in the coming weeks, ABC News has learned.

Meanwhile, Cruz will appear at the Iowa Freedom Summit hosted by Rep. Steve King (R-Iowa) on Saturday, alongside other possible presidential contenders, including New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, and former Texas Gov. Rick Perry.

Likely 2016 Republican candidates Sens. Rand Paul

Richard Engel, NBC News’ Chief Foreign Correspondent, said that the late Saudi King Abdullah “did not like,” and in fact “could not stand President Obama.”

“King Abdullah did not like President Obama,” Engel said. “In fact, a lot of people I know who are quite close to the late King Abdullah said that the King could not stand President Obama because the president was supportive of the Arab Spring, and because the president did not support Hosni Mubarak in Egypt, in fact turned his back on Hosni Mubarak in Egypt.”

It is certainly true that Abdullah was frustrated with President Obama’s refusal to enforce his self-imposed “red line” in Syria and support the rebels in reality as well as rhetoric. But he was furious with Obama’s decision to engage in diplomacy over Iran’s nuclear program. Saudi Arabia, a crucial U.S. ally, wanted Obama to take a tougher stand against Iran, their Shiite arch nemesis across the Gulf.

“So, this close personal bond between the president and the Saudi leader is just people being polite at a time of sadness,” Engel added.

The White House announced Obama has cancelled the end of his trip to India to fly to Saudi Arabia in the wake of the death of the country’s king and growing instability in the region. White House spokesman Josh Earnest said the president and first lady Michelle Obama would travel to Riyadh on Tuesday to pay their respects to the royal family.

Officials are concerned that Abdullah’s death will cause a power vacuum in Riyadh, particularly with events in Yemen and more so than experts previously believed. U.S. officials quietly say they do not consider Abdullah’s replacement, his 79-year-old half-brother Salman bin Abdul-Aziz Al Saud, to be a strong or healthy ruler, which raises the possibility that others in the royal family could come to the forefront.

“What I think is most important is the idea of continuity. Saudi Arabia wants to maintain stability, they want to maintain the same policies which have worked for them, and kept the Saud family in power for nearly a century,” Engel said. “That is the key thing here, not to, in fact, Saudi Arabia was actively against rapid moves towards democratization. One of the big ironies here is that President Obama in his statement said how close he was to King Abdullah.”

Richard Engel, NBC News' Chief Foreign Correspondent,

(Photo: REUTERS)

The National Association of Realtors said on Friday existing home sales rose slightly in December, but missed economist’ expectations amid worries of increased risk.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast sales rising to a 5.06-million-unit pace, but the NAR said U.S. home resales increased by 2.4 percent to an annual rate of 5.04 million units, just shy of Wall Street’s forecast. Median home prices for 2014 rose to their highest level since 2007, but total sales fell 3.1 percent to 4.93 million from 2013.

That was the first annual drop since 2010, but the NAR added their typical spin to the report.

“Home sales improved over the summer once inventory increased, prices moderated and economic growth accelerated,” said NAR chief economist, Lawrence Yun. “Sales were measurably better in the second half – up 8 percent compared to the first six months of the year.”

The housing market has struggled to maintain momentum since stagnating in the second half of 2013. In addition to next-to-nothing or declining wages, a small yet measurable increase in mortgage rates in 2013 fueled a negative reaction in the housing market.

“A drop in housing supply in December raises some affordability concerns in the months ahead as minimal selection and the potential for faster price appreciation could offset the demand from buyers encouraged by a stronger economy and sub-4 percent interest rates,” said Yun. “Housing costs – both rents and home prices – continue to outpace wages and are burdensome for potential buyers trying to save for a downpayment while looking for available homes in their price range.”

NAR President Chris Polychron, executive broker with 1st Choice Realty in Hot Springs, Arkansas says Realtors® are optimistic the Federal Housing Administration’s plan to reduce annual mortgage insurance premiums will have a positive impact on first-time buyers once it goes into effect on January 26.

“NAR is a strong supporter of the FHA and its vital role in the mortgage marketplace for homebuyers,” Polychron said. “Realtors® support responsible lending to qualified borrowers and the move to lower premiums will enable more buyers to enter the market while continuing to protect taxpayers from the risky lending practices that led to the housing crash.”

But many economists say both the FHA and the NAR are risking another housing bubble by pushing fiscally irresponsible policies that repeat the same mistakes responsible for the mortgage crisis in 2008. A monthly index tracking housing market risk — the composite National Mortgage Risk Index (NMRI) for Agency purchase loans — hit a series high in the month of December.

“With the NMRI hitting a series high, the risks posed by the government’s 85 percent share of the home purchase market are troubling, given that the combined capital of the agencies backing these loans is zero,” said Stephen Oliner, codirector of AEI’s International Center on Housing Risk.

Oliner and the Center’s other codirector, Edward Pinto, say the government hasn’t stopped risky lending practices, but rather the FHA has assumed more of the risk exposure. And that exposure is now higher than at any other time since they began tracking the NMRI.

“The need to objectively track mortgage risk is even more important today given the ill-conceived launch of a price war between the government agencies Fannie Mae and FHA,” said Edward Pinto, codirector of AEI’s International Center on Housing Risk. “This war will increase risk levels and fuel home price volatility, particularly in lower-income and minority areas.”

Pinto and Oliner both call the NAR the “housing lobby,” rather than a researcher that provides an objective analysis of the housing market.

The National Association of Realtors said on

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