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Economy

(Credit: Reuters)

The Institute for Supply Management-Chicago Business Barometer showed the pace of business activity in the U.S. Midwest slowed in December, after the New York Federal Reserve showed a contraction for the first time in years.

The business activity index tanked to 58.3, which is its lowest reading since July. The reading comes after a November measurement of 60.8, but another closely watched gauge showing serious concern in the region.

New York manufacturing business activity shrank for the first time in nearly two years, according to the New York Fed’s Empire State Manufacturing Survey released last week. The New York Federal Reserve’s Empire State’s index of business conditions plummeted to -3.58 in December from 10.16 in November.

A Reuters poll of economists expected a reading of 60.1.

A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the regional economy.

The Institute for Supply Management-Chicago Business Barometer

Economy

(Photo: REUTERS)

Pending home sales in the U.S. rose only modestly in November, further suggesting a struggling housing market and underlying weakness in the economy.

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) said on Wednesday its Pending Home Sales Index, which is based on contracts signed last month, increased by just  0.8 percent to 104.8. The NAR also revised downward its index in October to a lower level.

Contracts rose in the Northeast, South and West. However, contracts fell in the Midwest.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast total pending home sales rising 0.5 percent in November from the previously reported level.

Compared to October of last year, contracts were up 4.1 percent.

The report ends the year with the latest negative housing market data, which investors are largely ignoring. U.S. single-family home price appreciation slowed less than forecast in October, according to a closely watched housing market survey released on Tuesday.

New home sales for single-family units in the U.S. fell for a second straight month in November, according to the Commerce Department report released last week. The data are particularly concerning considering the amount of risk the government is re-injecting into the housing sector.

The National Mortgage Risk Index (NMRI) for Agency purchase loans rose in November to 11.69 percent, up from the average of 11.29 percent for the prior three months (revised). The risk indices for Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, the FHA, and the VA all hit series highs in November.

Pending home sales in the U.S. rose

Polls

romney-bush-split

2012 Republican nominee and former MA Gov. Mitt Romney, left, and former FL Gov. Jeb Bush, right.

A slew of new polls show that a majority of voters – including Republicans – think the 2016 GOP president field should be filled with fresh faces, not old ones. A new Rasmussen Reports survey finds that 64 percent of likely voters say Republicans should “look for a fresh face to run for president in 2016,” while just 10 percent say they should get behind a candidate who has run in the past.

Interestingly, a sizable 25 percent say they are not sure, which taken together with the seemingly 10 percent who back familiar faces, easily explains why 2012 nominee Mitt Romney and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush poll well on the PPD average.

As of Dec. 29, 2014, Bush tops the PPD average of 2016 Republican nomination polls by 5.8 percent, largely due to a CNN/Opinion Research Poll that found a larger-than-average 10-point spread, which excluded Romney.

The new poll was released just one day after two others — a PPD Poll, and another Rasmussen survey — both suggest a big push by donors for another Romney or Bush run would be a colossal mistake for the Republican Party.

The PPD Poll found a slim majority — 51 percent — of Republican and Republican-leaning independents say they are less likely to vote in the 2016 presidential election if Jeb Bush is the nominee, and 48 percent of registered voters say they definitely will not vote for another Bush.

Further, just 29 percent of Republicans say the former Florida governor should run for president in 2016, but even among these voters, just 14 percent say they will definitely vote for Bush in their state primary or caucus.

Similarly, a Rasmussen survey of a 1,000 likely Republican voters found just 33 percent believe Bush should run for president in 2016, while just as many (34 percent) disagree, and another 33 percent are not sure. The same survey, which was released Monday, found that 56 percent of all likely voters do not want Romney to run again.

The bench of 2016 Republican presidential candidates will likely be very deep, unlike the choice of Democratic hopefuls, but considering voters are concerned about families from either of the political aisle holding too much influence, the GOP should find a new standard-bearer.

The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on December 28, 2014 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95 percent level of confidence.

A slew of new polls show that

US

bill-de-blasio-al-sharpton

NYC Mayor Bill de Blasio, left, with notorious race hustler Al Sharpton, right.

The annual report by the nonprofit National Law Enforcement Officers Memorial Fund shows the concerning result of the anti-police sentiment in 2014. The number of law enforcement officers killed by firearms in the U.S. jumped by 56 percent this year to 50 officers, compared to 32 in 2013.

Further, the number of ambush assaults jumped to 15 in 2014, up from just 5 in 2013. A string of ambush assaults, such as the one committed by 28-year-old Ismaaiyl Brinsley that killed New York Police Officers Rafael Ramos and Wenjian Liu, occurred amid heated rhetoric from self-serving politicians and race hustlers.

“There are some weak-minded individuals influenced by the anti-law enforcement, anti-police rhetoric,” said Craig Floyd, a law enforcement advocate and chairman of the memorial fund. “And they’ve gone out and targeted police officers.”

Floyd said there is a real concern that the data could get much worse if tensions are not reduced.

“Enough is enough,” he said in a statement. “We need to tone down the rhetoric and rally in support of law enforcement and against lawlessness.”

New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio sat down with union heads Tuesday in a meeting both sides claimed they hoped would calm frustrations and increase officer safety. However, speaking to reporters after the meeting, Pat Lynch, the president of the PBA was unenthusiastic over the mayor’s seriousness.

“We are here today representing every rank in the NYPD, the presidents, vice presidents, of all the respective unions,” Lynch said. “We came here today to have a discussion. Our main concern is the safety of our police officers of every rank on the streets of the city and the safety of the citizens that we proudly serve on each and every street and each and every neighbor here today. There were a number of discussions, especially about the safety issues that our members face, there was no resolve, and our thought here today is that actions speak louder than words, and time will tell.”

Mayor de Blasio did not address the press after the meeting.

Meanwhile, the annual report found that 126 federal, local, tribal and territorial officers were killed in the line of duty in 2014, or a 24 percent increase from last year’s 102 on-duty deaths. Shootings, by far, were the leading cause of officer deaths in 2014, followed by traffic-related fatalities at a distant 49.

Sadly, the levels seen in 2013 were the lowest since the 19th century, but states such as California (14), Texas (11), New York (9), and Florida (6) led the country in officer deaths. Georgia was slightly behind the Sunshine State with five, according to the report.

The annual report by the nonprofit National

US

immigration crisis

Tens of thousands of illegal immigrants poured across the southern border last spring and summer in search of permisos, or free passes.

Nearly all of the tens of thousands of illegal immigrants that poured across the U.S. border from Central America earlier this year were no-shows at their hearing. The administration said they were released on their own recognizance because there wasn’t enough space to detain them.

However, a Houston television station reported — and, PPD has confirmed — what the administration’s critics and opponents to amnesty said would happen all along.

After six months of requests, the Executive Office of Immigration Review told Houston’s KPRC that 96 percent of the more than 4,100 families released on recognizance and ordered deported did not show up to court, prompting the government to classify them “in absentia.”

A similar 92 percent of the more than 1,600 unaccompanied children to be deported did not show up.

The Executive Office of Immigration Review usually reports an 11 percent to 15 percent annual “in absentia” rate, far below this year’s jump.

Among the thousands who were caught and detained by Border Patrol, the court process remains sluggish. A mere 22 percent of the more than 30,400 families and unaccompanied children caught have received a court decision.

“This was no surprise to any of us,” an official at EOIR told PPD. “Contrary to what others have reported, these numbers are in line with past experiences.”

As previously reported, the new incoming Republican majority has made a border security bill a top priority for the new Congress, particularly on the Southwest border where tens of thousands of illegal immigrants flooded across in search of permisos, or free passes.

Despite threats of a veto from the White House, Republicans are hoping to prevent what the National Association of Former Border Patrol Officers called “a predictable, orchestrated and contrived assault on the compassionate side of Americans by her political leaders.”

Nearly all of the tens of thousands

Economy

Consumer spending

(Photo: REUTERS)

Consumers confidence increased in the U.S. economy as the year 2014 draws to a close, according to a closely watched private report released Tuesday.

The Conference Board, a private research group, said its index of consumer confidence increased to a two-month high of 92.6 in December, up from a revised 91.0 in the month of November. The prior month was initially reported as 88.7.

While the index increased, economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal had forecast the latest index to rise to 94.0.

The present situation index, which is a gauge of consumers’ assessment of current economic conditions, jumped to 98.6 from an upwardly revised 93.7 (91.3 initial). Still, the December reading is the highest since February 2008.

Unfortunately, consumer expectations for economic activity over the next six months actually fell to 88.5, down from an initially reported as 87.0.

“Consumer confidence rebounded modestly in December, propelled by a considerably more favorable assessment of current economic and labor market conditions,” said Lynn Franco, director of economic indicators at the board.

The modest increase in the board’s measure comes after last week’s report from Reuters and the University of Michigan, which doesn’t jive with the latest results. Still, their final-December survey of consumer sentiment showed the index increased to the highest reading since January 2007, nearly an 8-year high.

Consumers account for two-thirds of economic growth in the U.S. economy, particularly in the fourth quarter when the holiday shopping season is needed to prop up slowdowns in other sectors.

However, this year’s holiday shopping season started off slowly. For instance, consumers spent an average 6.4 percent less on in-store purchases than they did on Thanksgiving weekend last year, according to a report from the National Retail Federation.

Later reports suggest sales during the Christmas week increased modestly, however. And according to Redbook Research, “profit margins are expected to be under pressure due to the highly promotional environment.”

According to the board, consumers in December were more optimistic about current labor markets, but feel uncertain about the future of their job prospects.

In December, 17.1 percent of consumers said they think jobs are “plentiful,” compared with 16.2 percent thinking that in November. But 27.7 percent this month said jobs were “hard to get,” though it was down from 28.7 percent last month.

The number of respondents who believe there will be more jobs in the next six months also fell to 14.7 percent this month, down from the 15.5 percent of respondents who said that in November. The number of respondents anticipating fewer jobs increased to 16.9 percent from 16.1 percent.

Wage growth over the last five years have been completely disappointing, and income expectations in the survey were unsurprisingly mixed. The survey found just 16.4 percent of households in December expect their incomes to rise in the next six months, down from 16.9 percent saying that last month. However, only 10 percent now think their incomes will decline in the next 6 months, down from 11 percent saying that in November.

Consumers confidence increased in the U.S. economy

Economy

home sales and home prices

(Photo: REUTERS)

U.S. single-family home price appreciation slowed less than forecast in October, according to a closely watched housing market survey released on Tuesday.

The S&P/Case Shiller composite index of 20 metropolitan areas gained just 4.5 percent in October on a year-over-year, compared with a revised 4.8 percent increase in September.

A Reuters poll of economists forecast a 4.4 percent increase.

On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, prices in the 20 major cities rose just 0.8 percent for the month, while economists had expected an increase of 0.4 percent.

Even worse, non-seasonally adjusted prices actually fell 0.1 percent in the 20 major cities on a monthly basis, and analysts had expected them to remain unchanged.

“After a long period when home prices rose, but at a slower pace with each passing month, we are seeing hints that prices could end 2014 on a strong note and accelerate into 2015,” David Blitzer, chairman of the index committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices, said in a statement.

The report ends the year with the latest negative housing market data, which investors are largely ignoring. New home sales for single-family units in the U.S. fell for a second straight month in November, according to the Commerce Department report released last week. The data are particularly concerning considering the amount of risk the government is re-injecting into the housing sector.

The National Mortgage Risk Index (NMRI) for Agency purchase loans rose in November to 11.69 percent, up from the average of 11.29 percent for the prior three months (revised). The risk indices for Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, the FHA, and the VA all hit series highs in November.

A broader measure of national housing market activity rose at a 4.6 percent clip on a year-over-year basis, compared with a 4.8 percent rate in September. The seasonally adjusted 10-city gauge rose 0.7 percent in October versus a revised 0.2 percent gain in September, while the non-adjusted 10-city index dipped 0.1 percent for a second straight month in October.

U.S. single-family home price appreciation slowed less

World

air_asia_ap

AirAsia planes lineup on a runway (Photo: AP)

At least 40 bodies have been found in the area where AirAsia Flight 8501 last made contact with air traffic controllers, as well as debris from the plane. The bodies were found in the Java Sea roughly six miles from the plane made last contact before it disappeared Sunday with 162 people on board traveling from Surbaya, Indonesia to Singapore.

According to Indonesia’s National Search and Rescue Director SB Supriyadi, the bodies were not wearing life jackets when rescue workers were lowered on ropes from a hovering helicopter to retrieve the passengers.

However, Supriyadi said rescuers were challenged by 6-foot waves and strong winds and that several bodies were later picked up by a navy ship.

“The warship Bung Tomo has retrieved 40 bodies and the number is growing. They are very busy now,” a navy spokesman added.

Tony Fernandes, the CEO of AirAsia, offered his condolences in a message on his Twitter account.

Obviously, the comment was of little comfort to family members, who watched the grim news unfold on local television. Indonesian television actually showed a half-naked, bloated body bobbing up and down in the sea. Family members screaming, another man fainted and yet another was rushed from the room on a stretcher.

Rescue crews operating dozens of planes, helicopters and ships from various countries searching for the missing aircraft discovered what they said appeared to be a life jacket and an emergency exit door. A piece of the plane’s interior, including an oxygen tank, was taken to Pangkalan Bun, which is the nearest town to be examined. Rescuers also found a bright blue plastic suitcase that appeared to be in perfect condition.

Pilots of the jet had been worried about the weather on Sunday and sought permission to climb above threatening clouds, but were denied due to heavy air traffic. Minutes later, the jet was gone from the radar without issuing a distress signal.

The suspected crash ends a tragic year for air travelers and companies in Southeast Asia, particularly Malaysia. The still-unsolved disappearance of Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 in March with 239 people aboard and the downing of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 in July over Ukraine, which killed all 298 passengers and crew, also contributed to a disastrous 2014.

At least 40 bodies have been found

Polls

jeb-bush-ap

Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush. (Matt Rourke/AP Photo)

The donor class and notoriously inaccurate pollsters may be excited over another Bush running for the White House, but Republican voters aren’t. A new PPD survey finds a slim majority — 51 percent — of Republican and Republican-leaning independents say they are less likely to vote in 2016 if Jeb Bush is the nominee, and 48 percent of registered voters say they definitely will not vote for another Bush.

Further, just 29 percent of Republicans say the former Florida governor should run for president in 2016, but even among these voters, just 14 percent say they will definitely vote for Bush in their state primary or caucus.

What are the top reasons Republicans and Republican-leaning voters are opposed to a Bush candidacy/presidency?

While his stance on Common Core — the increasingly and broadly unpopular education standards — certainly hurts Mr. Bush, it isn’t the number one reason voters won’t support him.

“We don’t need another Bush in the White House” tops the list with 42 percent, while “his stance on Common Core” (19 percent) is a distant second.

“Gov. Jeb Bush appears to be slightly ahead of the crowded 2016 GOP presidential field according to some polls,” says PPD’s senior political analyst, R.D. Baris. “But that’s only because GOP primary voters haven’t coalesced behind a single figure, and unlike 2012, the party has a very deep bench.”

As of Dec. 29, 2014, Jeb Bush tops the PPD average of 2016 Republican nomination polls by 5.8 percent, largely due to a CNN/Opinion Research Poll that found a larger-than-average 10-point spread. Nevertheless, even if Bush made it to the general election, the PPD Poll suggests he may face a similar problem that potentially cost Mitt Romney the 2012 presidential election.

“In 2012, we saw millions of white voters in the Midwest and Northern states stay home rather than vote for Gov. Romney,” Baris added. “In 2014, those voters largely came back in states with competitive races. As of now, though this could change, Jeb is just not inspiring them.”

Working white voters have abandoned the Democratic Party in recent elections. Yet, Baris says it isn’t enough for them to simply not support Democrats, but they also have to vote Republican for the GOP to overcome their built-in electoral vote deficit.

“By nominating an unexciting candidate in 2016, the GOP will throw away a perfectly winnable election,” he said. “Populous, personable candidates fare far better in states Republicans must win for the map to work for them. Jeb is too much like Dad and too little like big brother.”

Similarly, a recent Rasmussen survey of a 1,000 likely Republican voters found just 33 percent believe Bush should run for president in 2016, while just as many (34 percent) disagree, and another 33 percent are not sure.

The PPD Poll surveyed 1,000 likely Republican voters (2,010 registered voters) nationwide from December 27 – 28, 2014. The margin of error for the GOP subsample is +/- 2.5 percentage points with a 95 percent level of confidence.

eVoiceAmerica.com

The donor class and notoriously inaccurate pollsters

Politics

npr-interview-obama-steve-inskeep

Morning Edition host Steve Inskeep interviews President Obama in the Oval Office. (Photo: Kainaz Amaria/NPR)

Morning Edition host Steve Inskeen conducted what NPR called a “wide-ranging interview with President Obama” covering “recent executive actions on Cuba and immigration, race relations in the U.S., health care, the midterm elections and extending democracy in the Middle East.”

Unsurprisingly, Mr. Inskeen did not challenge the president on a single claim or version of events on any of the topics discussed. So, we thought we should highlight some of the president’s answers that border on delusion. We actually had to paste related topics together due to the president’s tendency to steer off track on issues and answers during interviews.

Immigration

Obama: With respect to immigration reform, obviously I’d been working on that for six years. And the truth …

Yeah. Well, I do — here’s what I do think is true: that I have spent six years now in this office. We have dealt with the worst economic and financial crisis since the Great Depression. We have dealt with international turmoil that we haven’t seen in a lot of years.

So, these were all big structural shifts that we had to do. I put immigration on that list and was frustrated that we weren’t able to get legislation.

With respect to immigration, Inskeen asked the president whether or not politics had anything to do with the timing of his recent executive order on immigration. Much of the president’s answer is typical Obama wandering, dodging and filibustering, and we will address some of those completely unrelated points shortly.

However, as we and many other media outlets have noted, the president hasn’t been working on immigration reform for six years. In fact, for two years he and the Democrats had complete control in D.C., yet did nothing though he promised Hispanic left-wing activists he would sign a bill in the first two years of his presidency. Even Jorge Ramos, who to his credit did try to press the filibustering president in a recent interview, wasn’t buying such a nonsensical version of events.

The data tell the truth, which I previously examined extensively. Under President Obama, working-class whites have completely abandoned the Democratic Party. Their answer to this problem, as underscored by Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi’s (D-CA) post-election conference call, is to simply “find new voters.”

Economy

There is little doubt that the latest GDP revision was both welcome and needed. However, fundamentally, the U.S. economy is on a terrible trajectory. Wages are stagnant and unexpected to rise significantly, the increasingly risky housing market is fundamentally weak, and jobs reports are not as impressive as the media suggest.

Obama: But at the end of 2014, I could look back and say we are as well-positioned today as we have been in quite some time economically… But what is true is that I’m in a position now where, with the economy relatively strong, with us having lowered the deficit, with us having strong growth and job growth, for the first time us starting to see wages ticking up.

When politicians either don’t understand federal debt or are avoiding an intellectual debate that reveals truly frightening scenarios, they talk about the deficit. Even if deficits mattered as much as debt-to-GDP ratios, which they don’t, the president and Democrats continue to claim that the deficit has lowered.

But that’s really not true.

The national debt quietly surpassed $18 trillion as November transitioned to December and, because short-term deficit reduction will soon give way to exploding mid- and long-term budget shortfalls, largely due to underestimated costs of ObamaCare, the CBO says the debt will cripple the economy sooner than anyone predicted.

The Congressional Budget Office released two startling reports in April showing unsustainable levels of U.S. national debt under the status quo and President Obama’s proposed budget. Unfortunately, political paralysis has prohibited our leaders from having the courage to level with the American people over the state of the economy, which is now the second-largest economy in the world — behind China.

Foreign Affairs

Obama: There’s a fascinating experiment — transformation — taking place in Burma. This is one of the most isolated countries for the last 40 years, ruled by a brutal, repressive military junta.

There was an opportunity to open up Burma for the first time. We seized that opportunity. America was there.

With the plan to normalize relations with Cuba in full swing, we are going to hear more about Burma. Except, Burma, which may just be Hillary Clinton’s only success story to tell regarding her tenure at the State Department, isn’t and never was a success.

As usual, Obama gave away the farm for nothing, rewarding an oppressive dictatorial regime with trade deals only the regime’s top .1 percent will benefit from. And what was the result? Since the deal was struck, the administration has been forced to walk back several, because surprise, they refuse to make promised democratic reforms.

Shocker.

Islamic State

Obama: I think we can’t underestimate the danger of ISIL. They are a terrorist network that, unlike al-Qaida, has not limited itself to the periodic attack but have aspirations to control large swaths of territory, that possess resources and effectively an army that pose great dangers to our allies and can destabilize entire regions that are very dangerous for us.

So, I don’t want to downplay that threat.

This may be the single-most disconnected statement President Obama has ever made. In fact, it is so far from the historical reality it is almost committable. Of course, the president isn’t crazy, so lying would be the only other explanation.

ISIS doesn’t aspire to control large swaths of territory, they do control large swaths of territory. Sadly, the number of cities under their control has not significantly changed since Obama announced his plan “to degrade and ultimately destroy” the Islamic State.

Not only did he downplay that threat when he called them a “JV” team juxtaposed to al-Qaeda, who he now says is limited in capability compared to the Islamic terror army, but he even sent his press secretary out to tell reporters he never specifically referred to the Islamic State when he made those comments. Naturally, he was mocked, because even an adoring media won’t like such blatant insults to their intelligence.

In reality, the rise of ISIS is one of the biggest stories of 2014, and biggest foreign policy blunders in modern American security studies. Whether you supported the Iraq War or not, the country was stable when President Bush handed it over to Obama. Just before the surge, Bush issued a dire, prophetic warning about prematurely withdrawing the troops, which Obama did against the wishes of his military advisors, national security team and two defense secretaries.

Any other interpretation of events, is simply delusional.

A highlight of some of the president's

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