Third Estimate for Q1 2019 GDP: U.S. Economy Grew at Solid 3.1% Rate
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) third estimate for first quarter (Q1) 2019 gross domestic product (GDP) showed the U.S. economy grew at a solid annual rate of 3.1%. The third and final estimate follows two consecutive beats on the advance and second estimates.
In Q4, the U.S. economy as measured by real GDP rose 2.2%.
| Indicator | Prior | Consensus Forecast | Forecast Range | Result |
| Real GDP – Q/Q ∆ – SAAR | 3.1 % | 3.1 % | 3.0 % to 3.4 % | 3.1 % |
| Real Consumer Spending – Q/Q ∆ – SAAR | 1.3 % | 1.3 % | 1.3 % to 1.4 % | 0.9 % |
| GDP Price Index – Q/Q ∆ – SAAR | 0.8 % | 0.8 % | 0.8 % to 0.8 % | 0.9 % |
| GDP Core Price Index – Q/Q ∆ – SAAR | 1.2 % | 1.1 % | 1.0 % to 1.3 % | 1.3 % |
With more complete data, upward revisions were made to nonresidential fixed investment, exports, state and local government spending, and residential fixed investment.
They offset downward revisions to personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and inventory investment and an upward revision to imports. Overall, U.S. economic growth in Q1 2019 was fueled by private inventory investment and in exports driving down the trade deficit.
These gains were partly offset by a deceleration in PCE, or consumer spending.
Real gross domestic income (GDI) rose 1.0% in Q1 2019, up from a 0.5% gain in Q1 2018. The average of real GDP and real GDI — which is a supplemental measure of U.S. economic activity that equally weights GDP and GDI — came in at 2.1% in Q1 2019.
That compares with an increase of 1.3% in Q4 2018.
The third estimate for first quarter (Q1)
