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Economy

The number of Americans filing new claims for jobless benefits rose for a second straight week last week, despite the number of eligible Americans remaining very low. The claims report showed the number of people still receiving benefits after an initial week of aid increased 29,000 to 2.38 million in the week ended Oct. 18.

The Labor Department reported Thursday that initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose by 3,000 to a seasonally adjusted 287,000 for the week ending Oct. 25.

The four-week moving average of claims, which is widely considered a better measure of labor market trends as it irons out week-to-week volatility, still ticked down a slight 250 to 281,000. Claims at these levels typically suggest a strengthening labor market, but the rolling average still includes brighter data that is backloaded.

A Labor Department analyst said there were no special factors influencing the state level data.

In a bit of a twist, the Federal Reserve announced on Wednesday that would end its bond-buying, money-printing program known as quantitative easing. The economy missed both inflation and employment marks repeatedly cited by the Fed, but decided to end the program, nonetheless.

The so-called continuing claims data covered the period for the household survey from which the unemployment rate for October will be calculated.

Continuing claims fell 58,000 between the September and October survey periods, suggesting a decline in the jobless rate. The unemployment rate fell below 6 percent in September for the first time since July 2008, but it is widely understood to be a product of Americans leaving the workforce, both for retirement reasons and because they have simply given up looking for gainful employment.

The number of Americans filing new claims

Elections

Wisconsin governor race

Incumbent Republican Gov. Scott Walker (left) is likely to defeat Democrat Mary Burke, according to the election projection model used by PPD.

The final Marquette Law School Poll found incumbent Republican Gov. Scott Walker leading Democrat Mary Burke among likely voters 50 – 43 percent in the Wisconsin governor race. While PPD’s election projection model is not easily moved by polls, we believe momentum is clearly moving in Gov. Walker’s favor. PPD’s anticipated final rating change for the race is from Leans Republican to Likely Republican.

Let’s take a look at the commentary, analysis, polling and state data. Of course, you can always get an idea of the overall political landscape by checking out the 2014 Governor Map and generic ballot tabs on the end.

[tabs id=”WIGov” title=”Wisconsin Governor Race – Walker (R) Vs. Burke (D)”] [tab title=”Commentary”]

Even among registered voters in the poll, which is a far more favorable gauge for Democratic candidates and frankly unrealistic at this point, Walker leads with 46 percent to Burke’s 45 percent, with 4 percent undecided and 1 percent saying that they will vote for someone else. However, Gov. Walker’s support was understated during the recall election by some of the very same pollsters claiming a tight race now — see here and here — with those two particular polls understating his support by an average of approximately 4 points.

According to PPD’s Pollster Scorecard, the Marquette Law School Poll is the highest rated pollster regarding contests in Wisconsin and, with only 3 percent saying that they are undecided or that they do not know whom they will support, the electorate appears to have little room for change less than a week to go before the votes are counted.

“Shifting turnout intentions have provided most of the dynamics of the race this fall,” said Marquette Law School Poll director Charles Franklin. “While the results among all registered voters have varied between a tie and a 3-point Walker edge, the likely-voter results have ranged from a 2-point Burke advantage to the current 7-point Walker lead.”

Before we break down each candidates support by party, unaffiliated voters, and so on, let’s first look at some numbers that speak volumes about the likely outcome of the race.

Burke’s favorability rating among likely voters is now underwater, 39 – 49 percent, while Wisconsin voters give Walker a slightly positive 48 – 47 percent. Among registered voters, 49 percent approve of the way Walker is handling his job as governor and 47 percent disapprove. Among likely voters, however, the results are far more favorable to the governor. A 52-percent majority approves and 46 percent disapproves, far above the 47 – 48 percent threshold needed for an incumbent to feel secure in reelection. Two weeks ago, 48 percent approved and 49 percent disapproved among registered voters, while among likely voters 50 percent approved and 48 percent disapproved.

Among registered voters, 51 percent say the state is headed in the right direction and less — 44 percent — say it is off on the wrong track. The optimism is even greater among likely voters, with 54 percent saying the state under Walker is headed in the right direction and 42 percent disagreeing.

Independents in the registered voter sample support Walker by a wide 46 – 40 percent margin over Burke, while independent likely voters support Walker over Burke by a wider 52 – 37 percent. In addition to winning critical independents, Gov. Walker appears to have solidified his base to a greater degree than Burke, as 92 percent of registered Republicans back their candidate compared to 88 percent of registered Democrats. Curiously, among likely voters the margin tightens, with 94 percent of Republicans supporting Walker and 93 percent of Democrats supporting Burke.

The poll interviewed 1,409 registered voters, including 1,164 likely voters, by landline and cell phone Oct. 23-26. For the full sample of 1,409 registered voters, the margin of error is +/- 2.7 percentage points. The margin of error for the sample of 1,164 likely voters is +/- 3.0 percentage points. This is the final Marquette Law School Poll before the Nov. 4 election.

[/tab][tab title=”Analysis”]

Walker’s coalition appears to mirror the coalition he put together in 2010 and again during the 2012 recall election, when a group of Walker-Obama voters played an intricate role in the election. According to exit polling from the recall election and the 2012 presidential election, Walker-Obama voters — or, voters who supported Scott Walker in his recall victory and Barack Obama in the 2012 presidential election — represented approximately 6 percent of the recent Wisconsin electorate.

Worth noting, that is nearly identical to the margin that allowed President Obama to carry the state against Mitt Romney in 2012.

The Republican enthusiasm gap waned last month, which we suspect accounts for the perceived tightening of the race. However, according to the new numbers, it has now returned. In the latest poll, 93 percent of Republicans say that they are certain to vote, while 82 percent of Democrats and 75 percent of independents say the same.

For all the talk about the superiority of the Democratic Party’s ground game, there is a serious factor rarely discussed by political prognosticators. There is truly something to be said about the Republican ground game in Wisconsin during midterm elections, a disparity recently highlighted by RNC Chairman Reince Priebus that even Wisconsin Democrats don’t disagree exists. They do, however, contend just how much they feel they have closed the gap. The problem with the argument is that Walker-Obama voters would have elected Gov. Scott Walker in electorates that look like 2010 and 2012, limiting just how much ground they could make up on a solid crossover candidate like Gov. Walker.

In 2014, the Partisan Voting Index is estimated at a barely Democratic D+2, a particularly noteworthy measurement. In 2010, Republican candidates running in states where the PVI was D+2 or more Republican had an 83 percent success rate. Considering the proven strength of Gov. Scott Walker as a candidate, as well as all other data previously considered, it isn’t too surprising the Wisconsin Governor race is now rated Likely Republican by PPD’s 2014 Governor Map Predictions model.

Gov. Walker now enjoys a 77 percent chance of success. We, like others, believe that Walker was emboldened by his 2012 recall victory, and if reelected as we believe he is more “likely” than not to be, Walker would be a strong potential dark horse in the 2016 presidential nomination.

[/tab]
[tab title=”Polls”]

Poll Date Sample MoE Walker (R) Burke (D) Raw Spread PPD Spread
PPD Average 10/16 – 10/26 — — 47.8 45.8 Walker +2.0 Walker +4.5
Marquette University 10/23 – 10/26 1164 LV 3.0 50 43 Walker +7
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 10/16 – 10/23 3308 LV 3.0 46 45 Walker +1
Rasmussen Reports 10/20 – 10/21 973 LV 3.0 48 49 Burke +1
WPR/St. Norbert 10/18 – 10/21 525 LV 4.4 47 46 Walker +1
Marquette University 10/9 – 10/12 803 LV 3.5 47 47 Tie
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 9/20 – 10/1 1444 LV 3.0 48 49 Burke +1
Marquette University 9/25 – 9/28 585 LV 4.1 50 45 Walker +5
Marquette University 9/11 – 9/14 589 LV 4.1 49 46 Walker +3
Rasmussen Reports 9/15 – 9/16 750 LV 4.0 48 46 Walker +2
WeAskAmerica* 9/3 – 9/3 1170 LV 3.0 44 48 Burke +4
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 8/18 – 9/2 1473 LV 4.0 49 45 Walker +4
Marquette University 8/21 – 8/24 609 LV 4.1 47 49 Burke +2
Rasmussen Reports 8/13 – 8/14 750 LV 4.0 48 47 Walker +1
Marquette University 7/17 – 7/20 549 LV 4.3 46 47 Burke +1
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 7/5 – 7/24 1968 RV — 47 46 Walker +1
Marquette University 5/15 – 5/18 586 LV 3.5 48 45 Walker +3
Magellan Strategies (R) 4/14 – 4/15 851 LV 3.4 47 47 Tie
PPP (D) 4/17 – 4/20 1144 RV 2.9 48 45 Walker +3
WPR/St. Norbert 3/24 – 4/3 LV — 56 40 Walker +16
Marquette University 3/20 – 3/23 801 RV 3.5 48 41 Walker +7
Rasmussen Reports 3/10 – 3/11 500 LV 4.5 45 45 Tie
Marquette University 1/20 – 1/23 802 RV 3.5 47 41 Walker +6
Marquette University 10/21 – 10/24 800 RV 3.5 47 45 Walker +2
PPP (D) 9/13 – 9/16 1180 RV 2.9 48 42 Walker +6

(Please note: Our model uses separately calculated averages from weighted polls based on PPD’s Pollster Scorecard. Above is the raw spread and average.)[/tab]
[tab title=”State Data”]

POLITICS

 Wisconsin National Average
Partisanship
% Republican/Lean Republican 41 39
% Democratic/Lean Democratic 43 43
Registered Republicans Wisconsin does not register voters by party preference or affiliation. —
Registered Democrats Wisconsin does not register voters by party preference or affiliation. —
Unaffiliated/Undeclared Wisconsin does not register voters by party preference or affiliation. —
Ideology
% Conservative 37 36
% Moderate 37 36
% Liberal 21 23
Presidential Job Approval
% Approve 43 41
Partisan Voting Index
Barely Democratic D+2 —

[/tab]

[tab title=”2014 Governor Map”]

[show-map id=’2′]

LEGEND: SAFE DEM | LIKELY DEM | LEANS DEM | TOSS-UP | LEANS GOP | LIKELY GOP | SAFE GOP

[/tab]

[tab title=”Generic Ballot”]

[table id=3 /]

[/tab]

[/tabs]

According to the final Marquette Law School

Polls

millennial_voters

A new poll conducted by the Harvard Institute of Politics underscored yet another challenge for Democrats heading into the 2014 midterm elections on Tuesday.  Not only do Democrats have to worry about getting a typical base constituency to vote, but also whether they will support the Republican candidate when they do.

In a first-ever for the Harvard Millennial Poll, more 18 – 29 year-olds identify as “conservative” (35 percent) than “liberal” (33 percent), a reversal from the 37 – 33 percent advantage liberals enjoyed just two years ago. Further, among young Americans who say they will “definitely be voting” in November, 51 percent say they prefer a Republican-controlled Congress juxtaposed to 47 percent who say they prefer Democrats’ continued control.

In 2010, a Republican wave election cycle, the IOP survey showed millennial voters preferred Democrats 55 – 43 percent, which was right on the money.

“The IOP’s fall polling shows that young Americans care deeply about their country and are politically up-for-grabs,” said Harvard Institute of Politics Director Maggie Williams. “Millennials could be a critical swing vote. Candidates for office: ignore millennial voters at your peril.”

President Obama’s job approval rating among 18-29 year-olds fell from 47 percent in April 2014 to 43 percent in the latest survey, with 53 percent saying they disapprove of the job Obama is doing as president. It was the second-lowest rating in the IOP poll since he was sworn in to office, second only to the 41 percent he received in November 2013. Among 18-29 year-olds saying they will “definitely be voting in November,” the president’s job approval rating is 42 percent, with 56 percent saying they disapprove.

The drop among young Hispanics was the most pronounced out of any other group. The president’s job approval rating among Hispanics fell to its lowest since the IOP began tracking it in 2009. Now, only 49 percent say they approve, while 46% disapprove. Though still above water, it was a significant drop from just six months ago. In April, 2014, 60 percent of young Hispanics approved and, even worse, far from the 81 percent who approved in November 2009.

By a large 12-point margin, young Republicans (42 percent) who say they are definitely going to vote in November outnumber young Democrats (30 percent), which is a wider margin than the one found in the Sept. 2010 IOP poll — 38 percent of Republicans said they were “definitely” voting and 33 percent of Democrats said they were “definitely” voting.

Young Americans oppose ObamaCare by roughly the same margin as the nation as a whole, 39 – 57 percent. However, as good as the news appears to be for the GOP, they should not take these results as an affirmation of their current outreach, but rather a deep disappointment in the president and Democrats among millennial voters.

“While Democrats have lost ground among members of America’s largest generation, millennial views of Republicans in Congress are even less positive,” said Harvard Institute of Politics Polling Director John Della Volpe. “Both parties should re-introduce themselves to young voters, empower them and seek their participation in the upcoming 2016 campaign and beyond.”

The KnowledgePanel® survey of 2,029 18- to 29- year-old U.S. citizens had a margin of error of +/– 2.6 percentage points (95 percent confidence level). It was conducted with the Government and Academic Research team of GfK for the IOP between September 26 and October 9.

A new poll conducted by the Harvard

Elections

2014_South_Dakota_Senate_race_candidates

Independent Larry Pressler, center, speaks at a Rotary Club candidate forum in Sioux Falls on October 13, 2014. Along with Pressler, Democrat Rick Weiland, left, and former two-term Republican Gov. Mike Rounds, are facing off in a three-way South Dakota Senate race. (Photo: Griffin Hammond/Bloomberg)

Aside from two widely unrealistic polls conducted in early October, all data suggest the South Dakota Senate race was never really competitive, despite claims to the contrary. PPD’s 2014 Senate Map Predictions model has never budged from its Safe Republican rating in this contest and, in fact, early in the cycle, PPD identified the Mount Rushmore State as one of three prime GOP pickup states.

Now, recent developments, two in particular, have prompted us to address the race once again, with an aim to explain our logic and put these ridiculous ideas to bed once and for all ahead of Election Day. One notable pundit moved this race to Leans Republican just last week based on flawed surveys, a decision that was an enormous mistake.

Let’s take a look at the commentary, analysis, polling and state data. Of course, you can always get an idea of the overall political landscape by checking out the 2014 Senate Map and generic ballot tabs on the end.

[tabs id=”SDSen” title=”South Dakota Senate Race – Rounds (R) Vs. Weiland (D) Vs. Pressler (I) “] [tab title=”Commentary”]

South Dakota, West Virginia, and Montana, have all stayed at or above Likely Republican, while others ridiculously entertained the idea that Democrats had a shot in one or any of these states. That was always a dream, and we affirmed our assessment after former two-term Republican Gov. Mike Rounds easily secured the Republican nomination.

I cannot stress enough that the model used at PPD is a “big picture” model that weighs more heavily for the fundamentals. In other words, our model does not wildly gyrate between ratings based upon knee-jerk reactions to polling results that are either honest outliers, or worse, intentional attempts to obfuscate the state of the race.

Republicans, unfortunately for them, fell for the hype earlier this month, but now seem to be coming back to reality after new polls affirmed Rounds has a comfortable lead in the race. The National Republican Senatorial Committee now plans to cancel approximately $346,000 in ad spending on his behalf, according to an official who spoke with POLITICO.

Democrats are still on the air, however, they have their own problems at the moment.

On Monday, Democrat nominee Rick Weiland lashed out at Washington Democrats over the DSCC’s ads. He argued, probably correctly so, that they have helped former Republican-turned-independent Larry Pressler — “not the candidate of the party you are supposed to be campaigning for.”

“They make me, as the Democratic candidate, look like a dirty campaigner,” he said.

He has a point. And in the analysis, we’ll examine it.

[/tab]

[tab title=”Analysis”]

Pressler has gained roughly 5 points since Democrats began their ad campaign, while Weiland remains stuck at an average 30 percent. South Dakota is an inexpensive media market, and the money the NRSC is currently diverting is all that remains from the $1.5 million to $2 million set aside after they were faked-out by outlier polls. But the state’s built-in Republican advantage, which was deeply exacerbated this year, likely would have been all Rounds needed to cross the finish line.

Rounds has seen his support hit the mid 40s multiple times this cycle, including now. Out of all voters in the state, Republicans represent a outright majority. Considering Democrats do not account for a third of the state’s voters, the presence of Larry Pressler in the race makes Weiland’s ability to put together a winning coalition all but impossible.

For either the independent or the Democrat to pull off an upset, the Republicans would have had to nominate a deeply flawed candidate, such as the case in 2012. That is not the case in 2014, regardless of what many in the media have asserted. For all of Rounds’ minor problems, he is a relatively well-liked former governor of a state with a PVI (Partisan Voting Index) that is strongly Republican — R+10.

Not surprisingly, there has been little to no evidence to suggest anything but a Republican victory in the South Dakota Senate race. Out of the 14 polls conducted this cycle, just two — one of which was a partisan poll with a likely agenda — have shown Rounds leading by only single-digits. Twelve have shown a consistent double-digit spread, and PPD tracking over the course of two weeks shows Rounds up by just over 14 points.

The bottom line is that Republicans made the correct call deciding to focus their resources on races that are tighter. Both Scott Brown in New Hampshire and Thom Tillis in North Carolina are on the precipice of eking out a surprising victory. The GOP should use the money there or elsewhere, because this race is Safe Republican.

[/tab][tab title=”Polls”]

Poll Date Sample MoE Rounds (R) Weiland (D) Pressler (I) Raw Spread PPD Spread
PPD Average 10/16 – 10/26 — — 42.2 30.0 17.2 Rounds +12.2 Rounds +13
Rasmussen Reports 10/22 – 10/26 908 LV 3.0 45 31 21 Rounds +14
SurveyUSA* 10/21 – 10/26 611 LV 4.0 43 32 19 Rounds +11
Argus Leader/Mason-Dixon* 10/20 – 10/23 800 LV 3.5 42 33 13 Rounds +9
NBC News/Marist* 10/19 – 10/23 730 LV 3.6 43 29 16 Rounds +14
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 10/16 – 10/23 527 LV 8.0 38 25 17 Rounds +13
Harper (R)* 10/9 – 10/11 630 LV 3.9 37 33 23 Rounds +4
SurveyUSA* 10/1 – 10/5 616 LV 4.0 35 28 32 Rounds +3
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 9/20 – 10/1 382 LV 7.0 42 27 12 Rounds +15
Nielson Brothers* 9/21 – 9/25 647 LV 3.2 39 26 24 Rounds +13
SurveyUSA* 9/3 – 9/7 510 LV 4.4 39 28 25 Rounds +11
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 8/18 – 9/2 526 LV 6.0 43 29 6 Rounds +14
Nielson Brothers* 7/23 – 7/28 578 LV 4.0 43 30 14 Rounds +13
Rasmussen Reports 6/4 – 6/5 750 LV 4.0 44 29 18 Rounds +15
SurveyUSA* 5/6 – 5/10 504 LV 4.5 44 30 17 Rounds +14

(Please note: Our model uses separately calculated averages from weighted polls based on PPD’s Pollster Scorecard. Above is the raw spread and PPD Spread. The latter is weighted, but also includes PPD’s tracking.)[/tab]

[tab title=”State Data”]

POLITICS

 South Dakota National Average
Partisanship
% Republican/Lean Republican 51 39
% Democratic/Lean Democratic 31 43
Registered Republicans 239,355 —
Registered Democrats 175,186 —
Unaffiliated/Undeclared 100,547 —
Ideology
% Conservative 41 36
% Moderate 39 36
% Liberal 16 23
Presidential Job Approval
% Approve 30 40.6
Partisan Voting Index (state voting behavior compared to the nation as a whole)
Strongly Republican R+10 —

[/tab]

[tab title=”2014 Senate Map”][show-map id=’1′]
LEGEND: SAFE DEM | LIKELY DEM | LEANS DEM | TOSS-UP | LEANS GOP | LIKELY GOP | SAFE GOP

[/tab]

[tab title=”Generic Ballot”][table id=3 /][/tab]

[/tabs]

Aside from two widely unrealistic polls conducted

Economy

federal_reserve

The Federal Reserve (Photo: REUTERS)

The Federal Reserve’s policy-setting body announced Wednesday it will end its money-printing, bond-buying program known as quantitative easing, despite recent news. The Fed will phase out the program this month, and also said it will continue to try to keep interest rates low for a “considerable time” to stimulate the economy.

The Fed went on to credit itself with whatever improvement in the labor market since the financial crisis, regardless of the historically low number of people in the labor force, stagnant wages and decreasing work weeks.

There has been much speculation in recent weeks that labor market volatility and slowing economic growth might prompt members of the Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) to delay ending the monthly purchasing program. Now, whispers that the Fed underestimated the danger of runaway inflation, which resulted in this decision, are growing in volume.

The committee stated there has been “substantial improvement in the outlook for the labor market since the inception of its currency asset purchase program” and “continues to see sufficient underlying strength in the broader economy.”

Earlier this year, it began tapering the monthly purchases as the unemployment rate declined and inflation remained tame. With this latest two-day policy meeting, the FOMC said it will conclude purchases of longer-term Treasury and mortgage-backed securities in October with a final round of $15 billion.

Despite the volatility and global growth worries, the committee reinforced its expected timeline of increasing interest rates in the middle of next year. Since the FOMC’s September meeting, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the economy created 248,000 jobs last month and that unemployment registered less than 6% for the first time since July 2008.

The Fed had been citing what they call “slack” in the labor market to justify keeping stimulus policies in place. However, according to the October statement, the Fed now believes that slack is tightening.

The Fed statement also said “inflation running persistently below 2% has diminished somewhat since early this year.” Yet, come economists are alarmed that the Fed may anticipate the same future inflation others have warned about since the progam was initiated.

Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher and Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser, two inflation hawks who have warned the Fed’s long-running stimulus programs will eventually lead to runaway inflation and asset bubbles, have seemingly won the day for now.

Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Narayana Kocherlakota, an inflation dove, unexpectedly voted against the policy statement, calling instead for a continuance of the bond-buying program. The Fed claims they want inflation to climb higher to around the 2 percent target rate, fueled by a push from higher rising wages, but that has not come to fruition. In fact, the economy has not met the standard previously outlined by the Fed to consider ending the program.

Yellen, an inflation dove, repeatedly said the Fed won’t raise interest rates until the economy is at full employment and price stability was achieved. The Fed has defined that an unemployment range of 5.2 – 5.6 percent and an inflation range of 1.7 percent and 2 percent.

None of those marks have been hit.

The Federal Reserve’s policy-setting body announced Wednesday

Polls

Obama_administration_Ebola

President Barack Obama convenes a meeting with cabinet agencies coordinating the government’s Ebola response, in the Cabinet Room of the White House, Oct.15, 2014. (Photo: Pete Souza)

Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel has ordered all military personnel returning from Ebola response missions in West Africa to be held in a 21-day quarantine. The Army days earlier had imposed such a policy on its own servicemembers, but the new order applies to all branches.

“The fact is the military will have more Americans in Liberia than any other department,” Hagel said at Wednesday’s “Washington Ideas Forum.”

The decision by Hagel further drives the divisions among the White House — which has downplayed the need for mandatory quarantines — and a range of other policymakers, particularly at the state level. After a recommendation from the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Hagel signed the order Wednesday morning, just one day after a leaked document revealed the administration plans to bring non-U.S. citizens to the United States.

Though the administration appears to be holding military men and women to a different standard, a new survey from Rasmussen Reports found American voters strongly favor a 21-day quarantine for health workers, as well. More than a supermajority of likely voters — 70 percent — say health care workers returning from Ebola-stricken nation should be quarantined, and also say think states should be able to take steps on their own to fight the deadly virus if they feel the federal government isn’t doing enough.

Just 19 percent of voters oppose quarantining these individuals and have faith in the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which claims they can determine whether or not these returning individuals have Ebola.

Meanwhile, in the state of Maine, the returning nurse who threatened to sue New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie over her mandatory quarantine is now getting the stiff upper lip from her home state. Maine health officials are threatening to go to court to force Kaci Hickox to comply with the state’s “voluntary” 21-day quarantine period for health care workers who treated Ebola patients.

Hickox, on Wednesday, told NBC’s “Today” that she doesn’t “plan on sticking to the guidelines” and is “appalled” by the home quarantine policies “forced” on her. She contends Christie and others were violating her human rights.

“I truly believe this policy is not scientifically nor constitutionally just, and so I’m not going to sit around and be bullied around by politicians and be forced to stay in my home when I am not a risk to the American public,” she said. She also claimed she was in “perfectly good health.”

However, the American people are not buying her argument. Another poll from CBS News found an even greater 80 percent said they want American citizens and legal residents returning from West Africa to be quarantined until it is determined that they are Ebola-free. Only 17 percent said they should be allowed to enter the country if they are symptom-free at the time.

It is worth noting that the poll did not specifically ask identify how long people would need to be quarantined, as did the Rasmussen survey. Still, both polls echoed a Washington Post-ABC News poll from earlier this week that showed support for restricting entry from those same countries at 70 percent.

President Obama and his top health advisers have resisted proposals to quarantine health care workers. Hagel noted, however, that many of those in the military are not “volunteers” for the Ebola mission, while health care workers are in fact volunteering to put themselves as risk. How that makes any difference, is unclear.

Hagel ordered the Joint Chiefs to develop a detailed implementation plan for review within 15 days, also requested the Joint Chiefs to conduct a review of the new policies within 45 days.

Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel has ordered all

Politics

 

In a new hard-hitting ad targeting black voters in North Carolina, Elbert Guillory hammers vulnerable Democratic incumbent Senator Kay Hagan. In the extended 1-minute ad dubbed “Send Hagan Home” produced by Our American PAC, Guillory says “Democrats have created the allusion that they are the salvation of the black community.”

“But who among us have they saved?” he said. “In North Carolina, the poverty rate for blacks has risen to 34 percent.”

Guillory, a black Louisiana State Senator and former Democrat, captured national headlines during the summer of 2013 with a viral YouTube video Why I Am a Republican. He announced in August that he would serve as honorary chairman of the Free At Last PAC, a political action group established “as an effort to support black Republicans who run for federal office and also to educate black Americans about the values of the Republican Party.”

Louisiana Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu was also the target of an ad featuring Guillory, which topped PPD’s list of best political ads of 2014. Now, armed with the same brutally honest rhetoric, Guillory set his sights on Kay Hagan.

“You see, black people are just being used by limousine liberals who have become our new overseers,” he says in the ad. “We’ve only traded one plantation for another.”

“You are not Kay Hagan’s cause, and you are certainly not her charity,” Guillory said. “You are just a vote.”

Guillory used a similar line to hammer Landrieu on her record with black voters, but this time, he left out “nothing more, nothing less” for another damning line.

“She has stepped your backs on her way to fame and fortune, and left you behind on food stamps, deprived of the American dream,” he said. “Fifty years of this so-called ‘Great Society’ has nearly destroyed the black community. But now we have a chance to return the favor.”

Hagan and other vulnerable Democrats across the country are relying on a strong black vote to salvage their Senate majority. But they have had a difficult time balancing between those efforts and efforts to distance themselves from President Obama. Too harsh of criticism could easily result in turning off black voters. However, in the latest ad, Guillory offers the black community another option.

“It has come time to send Kay Hagan home.”

In a new hard-hitting ad targeting black

World

Mideast_Egypt_Gaza_Hamas

Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi, center, speaks in front of the state-run TV ahead of a military funeral for troops killed in an assault in the Sinai Peninsula, as he stands with army commanders in Cairo. (Photo: AP/MENA/Mohammed Samaha)

Egyptian officials are weighing whether to build a wall along its border with Gaza as they destroy terror tunnels Hamas uses to conduct terrorist attacks. The plan was advanced after Friday’s terrorist attack in northern Sinai that resulted in the death of 33 Egyptian soldiers.

This isn’t the first time Cairo has contemplated the idea of a building an eight-mile wall along its border with Gaza to deter Islamist terrorists from moving in and out of the Palestinian territory. However, this time, according to Egyptian officials who spoke with PPD, the proposal has legs.

“There is a big conspiracy against us,” Egyptian President Abdel Fatah al-Sisi said Saturday in a live televised address. He blamed “foreign powers” for the “existential war” he claimed Egypt is currently fighting against the forces of radical Islam.

While Al Sisi didn’t specifically name each nation, the consensus is that he was referring to Qatar, Turkey and Iran, three known Hamas sponsors.

Following the attack, Egypt said it is backing out of its role as chief mediator between Israel and Hamas. Upcoming talks were the best hope of preserving a Israeli-Hamas ceasefire that has been in place since the end of the summer conflict.

Hamas repeatedly violated prior ceasefire agreements over the summer in a conflict that discovered a vast and sophisticated network of terror tunnels between and beneath the border of Israel and the Gaza Strip. Examinations of the structures found Hamas was using the very concrete supplied by Egypt, Israel, the U.S., and the U.N. for the construction of schools and infrastructure.

Egypt has declared a three-month state of emergency in northern Sinai.

Friday’s terrorist attack was launched on Egyptian troops using old tunnels that haven’t yet been destroyed and newly-dug tunnels that had not been detected. The attack combined the use of a suicide bomber, rocket propelled grenades and roadside bombs. Egypt moved to immediately close the the Rafah crossing between southern Gaza and Egypt, which they say will remain closed, despite Hamas threats.

Hamas leaders have reportedly stated that Gaza will “explode” if the Rafah crossing is not re-opened quickly.

Egyptian officials said that — while the southern border will remain closed — border crossings with Israel will remain open. Currently, humanitarian aid and other supplies are being delivered by Israel to the more than 1.8 million residents of Gaza to elected a Hamas government, which started and endorsed a 50-day war against them this summer.

Officials in Egypt are weighing whether to

US

Obama_Ebola

President Barack Obama speaks to Dr. Anthony Fauci, Director of The National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases at the National Institute of Health during a meeting with members of the President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology regarding Ebola, in the Roosevelt Room of the White House, Oct. 23, 2014. (Photo: WH/Pete Souza)

Newly leaked documents obtained by FNC’s Adam Housley from a high-level official at the State Department reveal President Obama plans to bring non-U.S. citizens infected with the deadly Ebola virus to the United States. The latest development comes just hours after the Obama administration issued a statement denying any such plans existed.

“Come to an agreed State Department position on the extent to which non-U.S. citizens will be admitted to the United States for treatment of Ebola Virus Disease,” the document reads after stating the “purpose” it was drafted.

Yet, less than twelve hours before the document surfaced, the administration denied its existence.

“There are absolutely no plans to MEDEVAC non-Americans who become ill from West Africa to the United States,” a State Department official said earlier Tuesday. “We have discussed allowing other countries to use our MEDEVAC capabilities to evacuate their own citizens to their home countries or third-countries, subject to reimbursement and availability. But we are not contemplating bringing them back to the U.S. for treatment.”

“Allegations to the contrary are completely false.”

It is against federal law to grant a visa to non-U.S. citizens who have infectious diseases, but the document said the administration believes it is a way to show the world the U.S. is committed to fighting Ebola. Fox News host Greta Van Susteren said she and Housley had known about the document, but considering the administration’s pushback, they wanted to be sure the story had legs.

“By the way, we have known about this document for some time but we wanted to get the document to verify it,” Susteren said on Greta Wire. “It was not enough for us to go with it last week until we had this proof…we wanted the document in our hands…and we got it.”

Rep. Bob Goodlatte (R-VA), chairman of the House Judiciary Committee, wrote a letter last week to Homeland Security Secretary Jeh Johnson and Secretary of State John Kerry asking whether such plans exist. However, he said he never received a response from anyone in Homeland Security or the State Department.

According to officials’ estimates, each patient would cost the U.S. taxpayers at least $500,000. Each patient, according to the government documents, would require 6 to 7 nurses on 12-hour shifts, which must replace their protective gear upwards of 8 to 10 times each shift. Other expenses include the cost to transport patients to the U.S., and various expenses associated with treatment in hospital facilities.

Newly leaked documents obtained by FNC's Adam

Economy

National and State Mortgage Risk Indices

National and State Mortgage Risk Indices are tracked and released by AEI’s International Center on Housing Risk.

AEI’s National Mortgage Risk Index for home purchase loans stayed at 11.43 percent in September, but is up nearly 1 point from the year prior. Meanwhile, the closely-watched S&P/Case Shiller composite index of 20 metropolitan areas gained fell short of expectations, gaining just 5.6 percent in August over last year, the slowest year-on-year increase since November 2012. A Reuters poll of economists had forecast a gain of 5.8 percent.

The October NMRI report marked the first time that VA purchase loans were risk-rated and included in the composite. VA loans in September had a risk rating of 11.24 percent, slightly below the composite rating.

A total of 232,000 loans were added in September, increasing the total number of loans included in AEI’s risk index to 4.52 million. The FHA’s NMRI in September was 23.99 percent, a slightly higher measurement than the average of 23.75 percent for the prior three months and up by 2.1 percentage points from September 2013.

This extremely high level of risk indicates that FHA loans would perform poorly in a serious stress event, fueling home price volatility, particularly in lower income and minority areas.

AEI’s National Mortgage Risk Index for home

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