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Economy

durable-goods-reuters

American workers at a manufacturing plant for long-lasting durable goods. (PHOTO: REUTERS)

Orders for durable goods, which are designed to last at least three years, fell for the second consecutive month in September, according to a report from the Commerce Department. The report is the latest sign of falting improvement in the economy.

Purchases of durable goods in the U.S. — such as airplanes, cars, and heavy machinery — fell by 1.3 percent in the month of September from the prior month to a seasonally adjusted $241.63 billion. The data widely missed the expectations of economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal, who had forecast orders would increase by 0.7 percent in September.

Excluding the volatile transportation category, orders fell a smaller 0.2 percent, while excluding defense goods, orders fell 1.5 percent.

Business confidence weighed down durable goods orders in August, with orders falling 18.3 percent, which was slightly less than a previously reported 18.4 percent decline. Though orders rose 22.5 percent in July, the outlier was caused by record orders reported by aircraft manufacturing giant Boeing Co. (NYSE:BA) in July.

However, recent data from Boeing showed it had orders for 122 aircraft in September and 107 in August, down from 324 in July.

Orders for durable goods, which are designed

Politics

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r12OhGGhOSU

Hillary Clinton currently leads her closest fellow-Democrat Vice President Joe Biden by a whopping 52 percent, 63.4 – 11.4 percent, in 2016 Democratic nomination polls. If you speak to any number of D.C. Democrats, then it quickly becomes clear that — to them — her ascension to the presidency is a foregone conclusion. However, for those of us who fixate on political prognostication for a living, there are a number of reasons to have serious doubts about her certain electoral success.

First, right around this point in 2007, a little-known junior senator from Illinois began polling just above “–” in a crowded Democratic nomination field, in which Hillary was presumed the frontrunner.

We all know the rest of the story.

Now, early in the presumed 2016 cycle, and Mrs. Clinton has already made a number of verbal mishaps.

“Don’t let anybody tell you that its corporations and businesses that create jobs,” Clinton said at a campaign event for Martha Coakley, the Democratic gubernatorial nominee for governor Massachusetts. “You know that old theory, trickle-down economics. That has been tried, that has failed.”

This is not a small gaffe.

“It will be played again and again. It’s a signal to Democrats,” Charles Krauthammer said Monday night. “I mean, if you can’t make the elementary liberal argument about the role of government without having this ridiculous statement that jobs are not created by corporations, then you are not going to be a good candidate as she showed in 08.”

The sad performance she put on attempting to sound poor also underscores Clinton’s unpredictable ability to sound cold, while trying to seem like she “feels” our pain, a gift her husband most certainly had. On her book tour, she complained her and Bill were poor when they left the White House because they were struggling to pay their “mortgages.”

“She is a person who said in the White House we were dead broke. We had trouble paying the mortgages on our houses. If you are going to plead poverty, you don’t refer to your homes in the plural,” Krauthammer added. “That’s pretty elementary. She is not getting the elementary stuff.”

In her statement, which her and supporters vigorously rushed to defend, Hillary was attempted to criticize the economic policies of President Reagan, policies many contend built an economy her husband simply enjoyed during his tenure. She went on to say, “One of the things my husband says when people ask him what he brought to Washington, he says I brought arithmetic.”

Speaking of arithmetic, I am been doing some myself, and it points to a simple conclusion: Americans never really liked Hillary Clinton until her husband cheated on her. And the more they get to know her, the less they like her, again.

According to a June Gallup poll, 54 percent of Americans have a favorable opinion of Clinton, down from 59 percent in February and the lowest measured since she conceded the nomination to Obama. Those figures are lower than when she served as President Barack Obama’s secretary of state, when she averaged a favorability rating of 64 percent.

Hillary_Clinton_Favorability_Gallup

The Gallup poll has actually been much more favorable to Mrs. Clinton, as an Economist/YouGov poll recently found her slightly underwater. The poll was conducted over the summer during chatter about the Benghazi hearings. The issue is laughed at by the Left, but the data show it is no joking matter to the American people, in total. We have previously examined the question of whether Benghazi will hurt Hillary Clinton in a general election and, not surprisingly, it poses a serious problem.

Nearly 6 in 10 voters blame Hillary for the terrorist attack, and more believe the “cover up” should be investigated further. Of course, Republicans have a keen sense of how to overdue political pursuits, but one thing is still certain.

Democrats appear to love her and, even in the unlikely event she walks through the nomination, they are still overestimating her electability in a general election.

Is it foolish of D.C. Democrats to

Economy

service-sector

(Photo: Reuters)

U.S. service sector activity dipped to a six-month low in October, while another report on Monday showed existing home sales gained less-than-expected in September.

The latest economic news suggested a tempering down in economic growth early in the fourth quarter, and housing data indicated that the housing market recovery continues to struggle.

Financial data firm Markit said its preliminary or “flash” services sector Purchasing Managers Index fell to 57.3 last month, which is the lowest reading since April and down from 58.9 in September. The index was weighed down by a drop in the new business sub-index, which fell to its lowest level in three months.

A reading above 50 signals expansion in the vast services sector.

“The October readings indicate that the pace of economic growth looks set to moderate in the fourth quarter, down to perhaps 2.5 percent,” said Chris Williamson, the chief economist at Markit in London. “We should not lose sight of the fact that the pace of growth nevertheless remains robust, having merely eased from very strong rates in prior months.”

Williamson is referring to an expected report from the U.S. government due Thursday that will show the economy expanded at a 3.0 percent annual pace in the third quarter, according to a Reuters survey of economists.

Meanwhile, the National Association of Realtors said its Pending Home Sales Index, based on contracts signed in September, rose 0.3 percent after falling 1.0 percent in August. The gain last month was below Wall Street’s consensus forecast of a 0.5 percent rise. Contracts were up 1.0 percent compared to September last year.

“It’s hard to tell whether sales are genuinely improving at a slow pace, or whether they are just moving sideways,” said Guy Berger, an economist at RBS in Stamford, Connecticut. “Still, the fall in mortgage rates over the past month and ongoing labor market improvement should provide a tailwind going forward.”

However, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate fell last week to its lowest level since June of last year.

U.S. service sector activity dipped to a

Politics, Video

Barry Goldwater would go on to lose the 1964 president election to incumbent Democratic President Lyndon B. Johnson, but Ronald Reagan’s “A Time For Choosing Speech” preceded a conservative revolution. President Reagan became the embodiment of — and the catalyst to — a nation’s desire to reclaim their own destiny from a centralized

Reagan was first a New Deal Democrat and even campaigned for several Democratic candidates, including President Harry S. Truman. He also served on the board of the Screen Actors Guild before becoming the group’s president. However, in the 1950s, the former Cold War liberal began his transformation into a conservative icon.

“I didn’t leave the Democratic Party,” Reagan once said. “The party left me.”

The now-famous “rendezvous with destiny” almost never happened. Goldwater got cold feet as the time for the speech approached. He grew more and more nervous that an unscripted actor (the speech was nearly off-the-cuff) and newly adopted Republican would make a monumental gaffe.

Obviously, that didn’t happen.

For those who may say President Reagan is headed for irrelevance, consider this. President Reagan, the Republican standard-bearer, runs far ahead of other past presidents on the question of who Americans view to be the best modern American president. In just one year, on the 50-year anniversary of the assassination of John Kennedy, Gallup found another president on top (Kennedy).

In a recent survey conducted by Quinnipiac University,  not only was Reagan — a symbol of limited government and individual freedom — at the top of the list, but President Obama — a symbol of big government and limiting freedom for collective — was rated the worst.

Barry Goldwater would go on to lose

Politics, Video

Vulnerable incumbent Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen was booed Sunday after she interrupted her Republican opponent Scott Brown’s closing debate remarks to slam the Koch Brothers.

Brown said that he was endorsed by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, but Shaheen interrupted to say the Chamber was a “Koch-funded organization.” The crowd began screaming “rude” at her, and Brown received a round of applause for criticizing Shaheen’s lack of decorum.

“The comment and her lack of etiquette tells me the senator is nervous,” said PPD’s senior political analyst. “She’s making mistakes, but she better hope she doesn’t make another one in the next 7 days.”

Brown has erased Shaheen’s lead slowly but surely in a trend that began in September and accelerated in October. The New Hampshire Senate race was moved from Leans Demcorat to a Toss-Up by PPD’s 2014 Senate Map Predictions Model on October, 15.

Vulnerable incumbent Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen was

Opinion, Video

Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, now the host of The Huckabee Show on Fox News, argued Saturday that America can no longer be saved by elections.

The elections coming up are generally important, but America can’t be fixed by mere elections anymore,” Huckabee said. “Our great republican is morally and spiritually bankrupt, and its lost any semblance of common sense.”

The governor said we need a moral and spiritual awakening.

Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, now the

Opinion, Video

In her opening statement Saturday, Judge Jeanine Pirro discussed the heroism of the man who shot the terrorists in Canada’s deadly terrorist. Canadian authorities confirmed the identification of the shooter in an apparent terror attack on Parliament Hill in Ottawa as Michael Joseph Hall, 32, also known as Michael Zehaf-Bibeau. The shooting, which left a soldier dead and put the nation’s capital on lockdown, came just two days after another terror attack in Quebec.

Hall shot an honor guard at “point-blank” range at the National War Memorial before turning his attention to Parliament Hill. But, Kevin Vickers, the sergeant-at-arms for Canada’s House of Commons, was ready for Hall and fatally shot him.

“It reminded me of the Wild West,” Judge Jeanine said.

In her opening statement Saturday, Judge Jeanine

Politics, Video

 

http://youtu.be/HKaJSkqa75s

Are the President’s policies on the ballot? RNC Chair Reince Priebus squares off against DNC Chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz on the 2014 midterm elections. Chairwoman Schultz had a difficult time, at best, explaining whether or not voters should consider the president’s policies when voting.

The appearance marks the second time in as many weeks that the two chairs met on a Sunday talk show to discuss the 2014 midterms, control of the Senate and the president’s policies. Schultz was stopped several times by CNN host Candy Crowley and asked to answer the question, but the DNC Chair repeatedly pivoted to the Republican extremism theme heard in so many ads across the country.

“The Democrats’ overall message is yeah ISIS is scary, yeah Ebola is scary, but Republicans are scarier?” Crowley asked.

“Well that’s right,” Schultz responded.

Priebus fired back, calling the attack — specifically on Republican Rep. Cory Gardner — ridiculous. “And Debbie still hasn’t the question,” he said, referring to whether or not voters should base their vote on President Obama’s policies or not.

“First of all, she still hasn’t answer the question as to whether or not the president’s policies are on the ballot,” the chairman said. “This is ridiculous.”

Priebus had a hard time getting a word in, as did Crowley for that matter, with Schultz repeatedly attempting to talk over both of them in true filibuster fashion. When given another chance to frame the choice between Republicans and Democrats in the elections this November, she again refused to answer.

“This is like a 10-minute commercial,” Priebus said. Candy Crowley is clearly heard laughing in the background.

Are the President's policies on the ballot?

Polls

maine governor race

Incumbent Republican Gov. Paul LePage (center), Democrat Mike Michaud (left), and independent Eliot Cutler (right) vie for top spot in Maine governor race.

A new Maine governor poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center finds incumbent Republican Gov. Paul LePage with a 10-point lead over his closest challenger. The poll of 639 likely voters, which reflects post-debate views, also found LePages approval rating jumping 5 points to 46 percent, up from 41 percent last month.

Democratic U.S. Rep. Mike Michaud is trailing LePage 45 to 35 percent, with independent Eliot Cutler at 16 percent and just 4 percent of likely voters saying they are undecided. Voters say Michaud is more likable, but they believe LePage better understands them.

“The biggest factor that’s still up in the air is turnout,” said Andrew Smith, director of the UNH Survey Center. “The poll shows how the race looks at a moment in time, but the race will ultimately be decided by who gets out the vote and that’s extremely hard [for Democrats] to do.”

There is a strong correlation between voters expectations and election outcomes, which is also very bad news for the Democrats. The poll found 50 percent of voters, which even includes 20 percent of Michaud’s supporters and 31 percent of Democrats, now say they beleive LePage is going to win reelection. That compares to only 34 percent who say that for Michaud and just 2 percent for Cutler. Michaud and LePage were roughly tied on that question in the Telegrams September poll, while 5 percent thought Cutler would win.

But it is a staunch reversal to the June poll, which found 43 percent thought Michaud would win, while only 31 percent said LePage and 7 percent said Cutler.

“The perception among voters, and even among Democrats, is that LePage is going to win,” Smith said. “That feeds into that dispiritedness among Democrats, who aren’t that happy in the first place. The job approval of the president is way down. They’re seeing Republicans doing well across the country, which isn’t going to make them enthusiastic.”

In a head-to-head contest, Lepage still leads Michaud 50 – 43 percent, a near reversal from the previous poll.

The Maine governor race is now moving to a Toss-Up from Leans Democrat on PPDs 2014 governor race, with LePage enjoying a 54 percent chance of reelection. A candidate needs a 55 percent likelihood to consider the race “Leaning” on PPD’s election projection models.

Poll Date Sample MoE LePage (R) Michaud (D) Cutler (I) Spread
PPD Average 9/20 – 10/21 — — 40.7 39 16 LePage +1.7
Portland Press Herald 10/15 – 10/21 639 LV 3.8 45 35 16 LePage +10
Bangor Daily News/Ipsos 10/6 – 10/12 540 LV 4.8 36 42 16 Michaud +6
Rasmussen Reports 10/7 – 10/9 930 LV 3.0 41 40 16 LePage +1
Critical Insights 9/24 – 9/30 606 LV 4.0 39 36 21 LePage +3
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 9/20 – 10/1 1531 LV 3.0 37 39 10 Michaud +2
Pan Atlantic SMS 9/23 – 9/29 400 LV 4.9 39 34 20 LePage +5

A new Maine governor poll conducted by

People's Pundit Daily
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