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Politics

Montana John Walsh

Incumbent Democratic Senator John Walsh of Montana plagiarized his thesis to obtain his master’s degree from the United States Army War College. (Photo: NYT)

The U.S. Army War College revoked Democratic Sen. John Walsh’s master’s degree after an investigation completed Friday concluded he plagiarized the “strategic research paper” required to graduate.

The War College, located in Carlisle, Pennsylvania, initiated an investigation in August after The New York Times published a story clearly demonstrating Walsh plagiarized heavily from other sources in the 2007 thesis.

The prestigious degree was directly related to the advancement of his political career. Walsh was pursuing a Master of Strategic Studies degree at age 47, a year before he became Montana’s adjutant general overseeing the state National Guard. After Walsh was appointed adjutant general of Montana’s National Guard, a military evaluation said his selection for the position was “bolstered” by his degree from the War College, an institution that boasts the attendance of American heroes Dwight D. Eisenhower, George Patton and Norman Schwarzkopf.

From that position, Walsh launched his successful bid for lieutenant governor, painting himself as a moderate, otherwise extinct pro-military Democrat.

According to a War College spokeswoman, the investigative board took less than a day to hear the case and make its findings, which was settled on Aug. 22. In fact, according to the report released by Walsh’s office, the review board made its conclusions less than 20 minutes after closing its August hearing. The process of appeal and review, however, wasn’t completed until just this past Friday.

“The board found that then Colonel John Walsh did commit the offense of plagiarism and thus his Master’s Degree and status as graduate of the U.S. Army War College should be revoked,” War College spokeswoman Carol Kerr said in a statement to the media.

Not only did Walsh blame an alleged post-traumatic stress disorder when confronted by the media in August, as well as an obscure connection between himself and a fellow soldier who committed suicide, but his appeal was grounded in the same logic. Ironically, Walsh and the campaign backed off of that excuse after taking considerable criticism for the scapegoat in August, yet still used it in the appeal. Ultimately, it was not enough to support any other recommendation.

“It should also be noted that other students … have had similar or more serious personal and psychological issues during their year at USAWC, and they have been able to successfully complete course requirements without resorting to plagiarism or other cheating,” the review board’s report said.

Still in denial and refusing to take responsibility, Walsh’s office released a statement saying the senator disagrees with the findings, but accepts the college’s decision.

“I apologize to all Montanans for the plagiarism in my 2007 paper, and I am prepared to live with its consequences,” Walsh said in the statement. “I may not be a scholar, but I am proud to have been a soldier who has served Montana and this great nation for 33 years in uniform.”

Walsh dropped out of the Nov. 4 Senate race shortly after the plagiarism story broke, but PPD’s 2014 Senate Map Predictions model moved the contest from “Likely Republican” to “Safe Republican” shortly before. Walsh, 53, was appointed by Gov. Steve Bullock in February to serve out the remainder of retiring Democratic Sen. Max Baucus’ term, which Democrats hoped would boost their chances of keeping the Red state’s Senate seat. He is a decorated veteran of the Iraq war, a former adjutant general of his state’s National Guard and, now, a plagiarist.

In August, Montana Democrats chose state lawmaker Amanda Curtis to replace Wash as their candidate, who was exposed as a socialist and found herself stunned like a deer in the headlights unable to answer a radio host’s inquiry into that and other issues.

The U.S. Army War College revoked Democratic

Opinion, Video

In part 1 of The McLaughlin Group, Pat Buchanan, Eleanor Clift, Mort Zuckerman, and Tom Rogan discuss Kentucky Senator Rand Paul and wealth accumulated by members of Congress.

In part 2 of The McLaughlin Group, Pat Buchanan, Eleanor Clift, Mort Zuckerman, and Tom Rogan discuss the wealth accumulated by members of Congress, Jim Webb and the weak economic recovery.

On The McLaughlin Group, Pat Buchanan, Eleanor

Religion

bible_museum_steven_green

Hobby Lobby CEO Steven Green, (right) will display the personal Green family biblical collection at the soon-to-be Washington D.C.-based Museum of the Bible, which is slated to open its doors in 2017 (right). (Photos: MuseumoftheBible.com)

Steve Green, the founder and CEO of Hobby Lobby, is now the founder and Chairman of the Board at the upcoming Museum of the Bible. In 2017, the Museum of the Bible will open its doors to allow visitors to peer into the 430,000-square-foot nonprofit collection in Washington, D.C., only two blocks from the bustling National Mall. Located just three blocks from the Capitol building, it will also be located near the Smithsonian and the Air and Space Museums.

Mr. Green first planned to open the museum in Dallas, Texas, but ultimately decided the nation’s capitol would draw more visitors hoping to gaze at exhibits created with “cutting-edge technology to bring the Bible to life. It will span time, space, and cultures, inviting everyone to engage with the Bible.” The museum will have three permanent sections and plenty of space for temporary exhibits, and the goal is to ensure returning visitors will always have a new or artifact to observe.

At the heart of the museum’s collection will be the personal, renowned Green family collection, which has been gathered over the last five years and has now become one of the world’s largest private collections of rare biblical texts, objects, and artifacts. The Green family collection totals over 40,000 artifacts and object, including cuneiform tablets dating from the time of Abraham, Dead Sea Scroll fragments, first editions of the King James Bible, multiple unpublished New Testament fragments on papyrus, as well as several of the earliest known Jewish prayer books.

“I think it will be extremely engaging and interactive,” Green told reporters. “We want to help tell that story so that it will be exciting for everyone that comes.”

Museum of the Bible will have interactive theaters and handheld devices that can create a personal tour for visitors, with current plans that include a “special Noah’s Ark experience” for children and holograms, as well as video screens that re-enact historical scenes related to the Bible.

If the Museum of the Bible sounds familiar to you, it might be that they have taken their exhibits on the road. “As of 2014, our traveling exhibits have visited five U.S. cities and three other countries, with new exhibits and locations continually being planned,” according to the website. The museum supports scholarship and academic research through the Green Scholars Initiative and through development of a high school Bible curriculum for domestic and international use.

The Green family made national headlines for refusing to comply with the government-mandate for employers to offer insurance coverage to employees that include abortifacients. For taking a stand against the contraceptive mandate, they were subject to a $1.3 million a day hit, which is the penalty for not funding said mandate, prior to lower courts staying the penalty.

Despite what has been widely repeated — inaccurately so no less — the Green family wasn’t refusing to cover birth control, per se, just 4 abortifacients out of all 21 mandated contraceptive products. The Supreme Court sided with the Green family and other plaintiffs in June. The high court ruled that closely held corporations do have a right to religious liberty and the freedom of conscious.

The court also said that the government failed to show that the mandate is the least restrictive means of advancing its interest in guaranteeing cost-free access to birth control. Justice Kennedy’s concurring opinion stated that the government could pay for the coverage itself, rather than force people of faith to act against their conscious.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1WFH70N_I54

In 2017, Museum of the Bible will

Politics

gardner_udall_colorado_senate_race

Rep. Cory Gardner (left) proves to be a challenging roadblock for vulnerable incumbent Democratic Senator Mark Udall (right).

Citing legislative paralysis and hyper-partisanship, the Denver Post endorsed Republican Rep. Cory Gardner over incumbent Democratic Sen. Mark Udall Friday.

“Congress is hardly functioning these days. It can’t pass legislation that is controversial and it often can’t even pass legislation on which there is broad agreement,” the Denver Post Editorial Board wrote. “Its reputation is abysmal, and even its members rarely dispute the popular indictment.”

“It needs fresh leadership, energy and ideas, and Cory Gardner can help provide them in the U.S. Senate.”

The endorsement ran down Gardner’s leadership qualities and heralded that he was obviously not “a political time-server interested only in professional security,” noting he gave up a safe House seat in order to take on the challenging odds of defeating an incumbent senator. They contrasted Udall’s move to the left while representing an otherwise still-purple state.

“Udall is a fine man with good intentions, and on some issues our views are closer to his than to Gardner’s,” the endorsement added. “But he is not perceived as a leader in Washington and, with rare exceptions such as wind energy and intelligence gathering, he is not at the center of the issues that count — as his Democratic colleague, Sen. Michael Bennet, always seems to be.”

The Colorado Senate campaign has been one of the nastiest in the country, with both sides burdening their fair share. Yet, Udall’s strategy of distorting Gardner’s record on women’s issues, as well as putting those issues center-stage, has led many pundits to question whether that typical Democratic attack line has lost its appeal. To be sure, to the Denver Post Editorial Board, it is a strategy that centers on attacks that are not only unwarranted but also petty considering the challenges we are currently facing as a nation.

“Rather than run on his record, Udall’s campaign has devoted a shocking amount of energy and money trying to convince voters that Gardner seeks to outlaw birth control despite the congressman’s call for over-the-counter sales of contraceptives,” it added. “Udall is trying to frighten voters rather than inspire them with a hopeful vision. His obnoxious one-issue campaign is an insult to those he seeks to convince.”

Though the Denver Post Editorial Board made clear that they disagree with Rep. Gardner on same-sex marriage and abortion, they viewed the former as irrelevant and the latter as overblown. They elevated Gardner’s ideas on tax reform, energy, and economic policy above social issues as issues of greater importance, which they note “are critical to the nation’s economic health and a long-awaited boost for middle-class incomes.”

But ultimately, the Post felt there was too much at stake to allow the status quo to continue and, though they’d “be remiss in not giving credit to Udall” on a host of issues, “it’s time for a change.”

“Many Coloradans are no doubt sick of the overload of negative ads that have assaulted them from both sides, painting Gardner as an extremist and Udall as a mindless vote for the president’s policies. Neither portrait is fair. But in their irritation with the campaigns, voters should not lose sight of the fact that a great deal is at stake. A dysfunctional Congress calls for action when voters have an attractive option to the gridlocked status quo. And in Colorado, thankfully, they do in Cory Gardner.”

Perhaps the Denver Post senses which way the wind is blowing in the Centennial State, or perhaps they are breaking with the Democratic candidate for the same reason Leon Panetta and other Democrats are openly criticising the president’s failures — they’re truly concerned. Nevertheless, the dynamics of the Colorado Senate race have changed dramatically since the National Journal released a May article entitled, “Colorado’s Forgotten Senate Race.”

As of now, Rep. Cory Gardner is slightly favored to defeat incumbent Sen. Mark Udall in Nov., and with a 56 percent statistical advantage on PPD’s 2014 Senate Map Predictions model, the race is currently rated “Leans Republican.”

Citing legislative paralysis and hyper-partisanship, the Denver

Elections

Alison Lundergan Grimes

U.S. Senate candidate and Kentucky Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes.

At the Courier-Journal Editorial Board meeting, Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes thrice dogged the question of whether she voted for President Obama in 2008. After spending a good deal of the day speaking to Democratic insiders, PPD’s making a final “Likely Republican” call on the KY Senate race.

Below is a brief commentary recapping the latest development, which is followed by analysis, state data, Kentucky Senate polls and an overview of PPD’s 2014 Senate Map.

[tabs id=”KYSen” title=”Kentucky Senate Race – McConnell Vs. Grimes”] [tab title=”Commentary”]

Grimes attempted to deflect after the second refusal by saying she was a delegate in 2008 for Hillary Clinton, adding that the voters of Kentucky should know she is a Clinton Democrat. However, she failed to also mention that she was a delegate for Obama in 2012, and her detractors immediately pointed to a 2012 interview in which she gleefully espoused her support for President Obama and the Democratic agenda.

“So you’re not gonna answer,” the interviewer pressed in what evolved from an awkward to downright embarrassing, and even shameful moment.

This is far from the first time Grimes has been caught refusing or unable to answer a tough question. In May, Grimes couldn’t or wouldn’t answer whether or not she would’ve voted for ObamaCare — twice. But, at that time, the media darling was still enjoying a free pass from Louisville and national news outlets, which were more apt to cover her endorsements from big name Democrats rather than questionable D.C. fundraisers.

Now, that’s all over.

MSNBC’s Morning Joe fired the first shot, with the entire political team reviewing the footage and concluding it was “cringe-worthy” campaign material.

“And Kentuckians expect her to cast a tough vote on anything,” Chuck Todd said. “Is she ever going to answer a tough question on anything. You want to be a U.S. Senator?”

Todd went on to say he thought she disqualified herself as a candidate making this campaign-ending appearance.

“I really do, I think she disqualified herself.”

The panel offered no objection to Todd’s assessment, with Mika Brzezinski actually ending the video suggesting she was spun from cloth.

“Created by consultants,” Brzezinski said.

Even MSNBC is saying what we at PPD have been saying, all cycle.

Click “Analysis” Above

[/tab][tab title=”Analysis”]

Mitch McConnell Alison Lundergan Grimes

Kentucky Senate race: Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and Alison Lundergan Grimes at the Fancy Farm picnic Saturday, August 2, 2014. (Getty Images)

The Kentucky Senate race has been rated “Likely Republican” by PPD’s 2014 Senate Map Predictions model since the beginning of the cycle.

McConnell’s approval rating is in the high 30s to low 40s and he has hovered below the 50-percent threshold in the majority of polls conducted throughout the cycle.

However, putting aside the speculation and simply observing the data, it is clear that both of these states are fools gold for Democrats and have been this entire cycle. From the beginning of the cycle and consistently, PPD’s 2014 Senate Map Predictions model has been more bullish on McConnell, while other pundits have been prognosticating in fantasy land.

Now, there is no excuse for the media delay in covering the political reality of this race.

Let’s take a look at some of the more important, fundamental factors in the Kentucky Senate race, absent the wishful speculation heard elsewhere. We will begin with polling, then move into demographic data and other nerdy variables.

First, McConnell’s right flank is predictably coming home. Much has been made of McConnell’s low approval ratings and the apparent tightness of the race, according to at least a few polls. Yet, as we’ve previously examined, after McConnell defeated primary challenger Matt Bevin his lead over Grimes widened and has remained consistent. In fact, of all the polls conducted on the Kentucky Senate race since mid-July — which can be viewed in the “Polls” tab — Grimes led in just one, which was a recent survey conducted by none other than the Courier-Journal.

That poll, which is conducted by the questionable pollster SurveyUSA, has consistently shown a 6-point bias toward Grimes and, following the editorial board blunder, will not likely show her such favor again.

In the raw average of aggregate polling, Grimes now sits around 42 percent, which is not much less than where we believe her ceiling of support to be. Let’s take a look at the state’s political environment in more depth to justify that claim.

President Obama’s approval rating in the state is at 29 percent, which believe it or not, is a significant deterioration since Mitt Romney beat him by 23 points in 2012. According to Gallup’s state scorecard, Republicans hold a 6-point edge in party ID (a misleading measurement we will discuss shortly), conservative voters represent 41 percent of the overall electorate and 49 percent are “very religious.”

The only thing “blue” about the Bluegrass State is its nickname. The Partisan Voting Index is now R+14, up from R+10 in 2010 when now-Sen. Rand Paul significantly outperformed expectations in the 5th Congressional District.

And here is the crux of the problem for Alison Lundergan Grimes. Traditional Democratic voters in Kentucky have been steadily trending Republican on the national level.

The 5th Congressional District, a once-competitive region of the state due in large part to the heavily unionized and historically Democratic coal mining constituency, is naturally bailing on the national Democratic Party. In fact, since the era of Obama began in 2008, the 5th District has been bleeding once-loyal Democratic voters. The “War on Coal” may be a sound bite for most media outlets, but it’s real life for Kentucky coal miners.

Worth noting, Grimes isn’t simply underperforming in the region because of the anti-Obama sentiment, she shoulders a good deal of the blame. Regardless, despite what the media have been attempting to portray about this race, it was never truly competitive because conservative voters were always going to come home in the end.

Sure, McConnell isn’t winning any popularity contests anytime soon. However, much of his negative favorability ratings derived from his right flank and, when push comes to shove, a Majority Leader Harry Reid is still far less popular than a Majority Leader Mitch McConnell.

The Kentucky Senate race is rated “Likely Republican” on PPD’s 2014 Senate Map Predictions model, with the minority leader enjoying an 84 percent chance of victory.

Click “Polls” Above

[/tab][tab title=”Polls”]

Poll Date Sample MoE McConnell (R) Grimes (D) Raw Spread PPD Spread
Polling Average 9/8 – 10/7 — — 45.5 42.5 McConnell +3.0 McConnell +5.2
FOX News* 10/4 – 10/7 706 LV 3.5 45 41 McConnell +4
Courier-Journal/SurveyUSA* 9/29 – 10/2 632 LV 4.0 44 46 Grimes +2
CBS News/NYT/YouGov* 9/20 – 10/1 1689 LV 3.0 47 41 McConnell +6
Reuters/Ipsos 9/8 – 9/12 944 LV 3.6 46 42 McConnell +4
NBC News/Marist* 9/2 – 9/4 691 LV 3.7 47 39 McConnell +8
Rasmussen Reports 9/1 – 9/2 750 LV 4.0 46 41 McConnell +5
CNN/Opinion Research 8/28 – 9/1 671 LV 4.0 50 46 McConnell +4
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 8/18 – 9/2 2130 LV 3.0 47 42 McConnell +5
Courier-Journal/SurveyUSA* 8/25 – 8/27 569 LV 4.2 46 42 McConnell +4
PPP (D) 8/7 – 8/10 991 LV 3.1 47 42 McConnell +5
Courier-Journal/SurveyUSA 7/18 – 7/23 604 LV 4.1 47 45 McConnell +2
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 7/5 – 7/24 LV 4.2 50 46 McConnell +4

(Please note: Our model uses separately calculated averages from weighting polls based on PPD’s Pollster Scorecard. Above is the raw spread and the weighted PPD average.)

Click “State Data” Above[/tab]
[tab title=”State Data”]

POLITICS

 Kansas National Average
Partisanship
% Republican/Lean Republican 45 39
% Democratic/Lean Democratic 39 43
Registered Republicans 1,208,512 —
Registered Democrats 1,672,829 —
Unaffiliated/Undeclared 234,188 —
Registered Libertarians 4,137 —
Ideology
% Conservative 41 36
% Moderate 33 36
% Liberal 19 23
Presidential Job Approval
% Approve 29 40
Partisan Voting Index
Strongly Republican R+13 —

[/tab] [tab title=”2014 Senate Map”]

[show-map id=’1′]

LEGEND: SAFE DEM | LIKELY DEM | LEANS DEM | TOSS-UP | LEANS GOP | LIKELY GOP | SAFE GOP
[/tab] [/tabs]

Following the video of Alison Grimes thrice

US

Fort Hood shooter Nidal Hasan

FILE –This April 9, 2010, file photo released by the Bell County Sheriff’s Department shows U.S. Major Nidal Hasan at the Bell County Jail in Belton, Texas. (AP Photo/Bell County Sheriffs Department, File)

The Obama administration has desperately tried to bury all references to Islamic terrorism in Justice Department culture and handbooks. As a result, the convicted Fort Hood massacre committed by shooter and Islamic radical Nidal Hasan has been officially labeled as “workplace violence.”

Catherine Herridge, the award-winning Chief Intelligence correspondent for FOX News Channel, has once again obtained another letter from Hasan that clearly details his radical Islamic motives, which is addressed to Pope Francis and espouses “jihad.”

Hasan repeatedly references the Koran in this latest letter, and includes a bulleted list of guidelines for “believers.” In late August, Herridge also obtained another Hasan letter, in which he pledged his allegiance to the Islamic State — otherwise known as ISIL and ISIS — and its leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi.

In the letter titled, “A Warning To Pope Francis, Members Of The Vatican, And Other Religious Leaders Around the World,” Hasan uses the acronym “SoA” to describe himself, or “Soldier of Allah.” He directed his attorney John Galligan to mail the six-page, hand-written letter to Pope Francis, but Galligan offered a copy of the letter to Herridge at Fox News.

In one part of the letter subtitled “Jihad” — viewable below — he claims “Believing fighters (mujahadeen) have a greater rank in the eyes of Allah than believers who don’t fight.”

Hasan was convicted on 13 counts of premeditated murder and 31 counts of attempted murder for the 2009 Fort Hood massacre, but not terrorism. He is currently on death row at Fort Leavenworth in Kansas.

The Obama administration also announced they will not be charging terrorism charges against Alton Alexander Nolen, 30, who beheaded Ms. Colleen Hufford, 54, before stabbing Ms. Traci Johnson, 43, at a food distribution center in Oklahoma. The Moore Police Department called the FBI after it became crystal clear that Nolan, who referred to himself as Jah’Keem Yisreal on his Facebook page that was filled with radical Islamic rants, was motivated by Islamic extremism.

Another Nidal Hasan letter obtained by Catherine

Politics

First_Lady_Michelle_Obama

First Lady Michelle Obama backed Texas gubernatorial candidate Wendy Davis in a new radio ad that ironically urged voters to vote “for the children.” Granted, the spot looks to focus on education, but the irony is raising a number of eyebrows in The Lone Star State.

[soundcloud url=”https://api.soundcloud.com/tracks/171229061″ params=”auto_play=false&hide_related=false&show_comments=true&show_user=true&show_reposts=false&visual=true” width=”100%” height=”450″ iframe=”true” /]

Davis, of course, first made media headlines during her June 25 filibuster, which an investigative report released by PPD in January found was staged and pre-planned by the Texas Democratic establishment. Nevertheless, her filibuster temporarily defeated a Texas abortion law that banned late-term abortion and mandated clinics implement certain hospital-level upgrades, including operating rooms and air filtration systems.

A federal appeals court ruled Thursday that Texas could immediately begin enforcing its new late-term abortion ban, complete with health standards that all but seven clinics could meet.

Davis is far behind her Republican opponent Attorney General Gregg Abbott and, the race has always been rated “Safe Republican” on PPD’s 2014 Governor Map Predictions model. Even though liberals believed her stance against a late-term abortion bill would propel her to the Governor’s Mansion after she announced her bid, Americans have favored a late-term abortion ban for years and even more so in Texas. Davis, and the Texas Democratic Party, are far out of the mainstream in the state.

First Lady Michelle Obama backed Texas gubernatorial

Policy

(Credit: Townhall/Michael Ramirez)

Hundreds of thousands of ObamaCare cancellations will notify voters no later than Nov. 1, just three days before polls open for the midterm elections on Nov. 4. Though some states such as Iowa have already begun early voting, or all mail-in ballots as in the state of Colorado, Democrats in tough Senate races are deeply concerned because federal law requires insurers give 60-day notice.

Officials from 13 states and the District of Columbia are now confirming what a Nov. 2013 study conducted by PPD found, which is that tens of thousands of policies in each state are not in compliance with the Essential Health Benefit Standards mandated by ObamaCare.

In total, counting employer-sponsored health plans, over 140 million Americans were previously covered by insurance that failed to meet the government-mandated standards. Yet, this new round of cancellations are only now affecting people just before the 2014 midterm elections because states that initially granted a reprieve at the request of President Obama are no longer willing to do so.

“It looks like several hundred thousand people across the country will receive notices in the coming days and weeks,” said Jim Capretta of the Ethics and Public Policy Center.

Virginia, where Republican Ed Gillespie has struggled to gain traction after the wealthy and self-funded incumbent Democratic Sen. Mark Warner, will most impacted. The Old Dominion will see roughly 250,000 cancellation notices by the Nov. 1 deadline.

President Obama’s now infamous broken promise was always a two-fold disaster. “If you like your health care plan, you can keep your health care plan,” Obama said in 2009 speaking at the American Medical Association. It was a promise he repeated numerous times during the health care debate that was raging across the nation and, according to the Department of Health and Human Services documents, he knew it was lying to the American people.

But the president also promised the American people they could keep their doctor, which also was never true.

“If you like your doctor, you will be able to keep your doctor. Period. If you like your health care plan, you will be able to keep your health care plan. Period. No one will take it away,” Obama promised. “No matter what.”

However, the majority of those receiving cancellation notices during the upcoming weeks will not be able to keep their doctors. They majority will also be forces to pay higher deductibles and out-of-pocket expenses.

Another state that has been and will be hit hard by the cancellations is North Carolina. Incumbent Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan is asking the people of North Carolina to believe that she only became aware of the law’s implications “when insurance companies began disingenuously offering plans that they knew they would be canceling.”

But GOP nominee Thom Tillis pushed the Greensboro Democrat to release an audio from a conference call she held on November 13, 2013, with reporters. Dana Milbank of the Washington Post chronicled that call, and it wasn’t pretty.

“Hagan hosted a conference call for reporters Tuesday morning to discuss the problems with the health-care law’s rollout, and the Q&A session was so painful that the senator should qualify for trauma coverage under the Affordable Care Act,” Milbank wrote.

Obama was eventually forced to half-heartedly admit that any plan that didn’t meet the government-mandated Essential Health Benefit Standards required under ObamaCare faced cancellation. His broken promise earned him the PoliFact “Lie Of The Year” award.

Meanwhile, the president delayed implementation of the employer mandate until after the 2014 midterm elections and, potentially after the 2016 presidential election, in order to avoid the severe shock before Democratic candidates have a chance to be held accountable foe their vote. ObamaCare is still deeply unpopular, with a majority in a recent survey saying they wish it was never even passed, at all.

Hundreds of thousands of ObamaCare cancellations will

Polls

A pair of new polls in the Kansas Senate race show incumbent Republican Sen. Pat Roberts erasing Greg Orman’s lead and Democrat hopes of snagging the seat. A CNN/Opinion Research poll found Roberts leading by 49 – 48 percent, just under the 50 percent mark, while a new FOX News poll conducted shortly after found Roberts with a larger 44 – 39 percent lead.

Even though commentary in our recent election analysis has been brutal on the GOP incumbent, both here and here, unlike another prognosticator’s ratings that have gyrated wildly back-and-forth, PPD’s election projection model never wavered from favoring Roberts because we are a model that gives more weight to “big picture” fundamentals.

[tabs id=”KSSen” title=”Kansas Senate Race – Roberts Vs. Orman”] [tab title=”Analysis”]

pat_roberts_kansas_senate_race_polls

Sen. Pat Roberts, R-Kan., left, answers a question during a debate with independent candidate Greg Orman, right, in Overland Park, Kansas on Oct. 8, 2014. (AP)

“The polling in Kansas must be taken with a grain of salt,” we wrote of the race recently. “Aside from the state’s dominant Republican nature, Roberts is down because he is losing voters from his center to Orman and shrinking the electorate by losing voters on his right.” We remain very skeptical that Orman can win this race and find it hard to believe conservatives who backed Milton Wolfe and others in the primary will allow Harry Reid to keep his position as majority leader.

Republicans, particularly conservatives, will have to decide whether voting for a less-than ideal Republican is as bad as allowing Democrats to keep control of the Upper Chamber. With control of the U.S. Senate on the line, the heavily partisan lean of the state was always likely to take over.

“We know that partisanship tends to assert itself as Election Day nears,” said Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who conducts the FOX News poll jointly with Democratic pollster Chris Anderson.“And that may be happening in Kansas.”

We not only believe it is happening, but that it was pretty much inevitable.

Kansas has not elected a Democratic senator since President Franklin Delano Roosevelt first won the presidency. In the 98 years Kansan voters have been able to directly elect their senators, since the passage of the Seventeenth Amendment, a majority or plurality of voters chose a Democrat just three times, the last time in 1932. George McGill won a three-way race with 46 percent of the vote, but lost with 44 percent during his re-election bid just six years later. Republicans outnumber Democrats nearly 2 to 1 and, are more enthusiastic by a margin of 78 – 66 percent when counting those who say they are either “very interested” or “extremely interested” in voting this November.

President Obama’s approval rating in the state actually ticked down a bit on the PPD average of polls with 32.7 now approving, down from 33 percent measured last week.

In the FOX News poll, Roberts has a more solid base of support than Oman, with 82 percent of his supporters saying they are certain to vote for him, juxtaposed to 76 percent for Orman.

As of now, 73 percent of Republicans back Roberts, which is likely to solidify further, while 71 percent of Democrats support Orman. Independents are breaking for Orman 45 – 34 percent. Roberts still leads, however, because there are so many more Republicans than Democrats in the Sunflower State.

Men heavily favor Roberts by a 50 – 37 percent margin, while women back Orman by a lacking 40-38 percent margin, far too little to overcome the Republican’s lead among men.

Roberts has also succeeded in repairing his image, with 50 percent of likely voters giving him favorable marks in the CNN/Opinion Research Poll. Orman isn’t far behind with 48 percent giving him positive marks.

Worth noting, both the CNN poll, which is conducted by Opinion Research and, the FOX Poll, which is conducted under the joint direction of Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R), use “Gold Standard” polling practices. Between their practices and results, they’ve earned far higher ratings than both SurveyUSA and the NBC/Marist Poll on PPD’s Pollster Scorecard. Marist uses the “Gold Standard,” too, but their results are lacking in comparison.

Nevertheless, even if we were to take them at face value, the trend is crystal clear.

We encourage readers to follow-up with our analysis by looking at compiled data under the “State Data” tab above. Incumbent Republican Sen. Pat Roberts now has a 59 percent chance of defeating Greg Orman, up from the slight 51 percent edge he held last week on PPD’s 2014 Senate Map Predictions model.

[/tab]
[tab title=”Polls”]

Poll Date Sample MoE Orman (I) Roberts (R) Raw Spread PPD Average
PPD Average 9/27 – 10/7 — — 45.5 43.3 Orman +2.2 Roberts +3
FOX News* 10/4 – 10/7 702 LV 3.5 39 44 Roberts +5
CNN/Opinion Research 10/2 – 10/6 687 LV 3.5 48 49 Roberts +1
SurveyUSA* 10/2 – 10/5 549 LV 4.3 47 42 Orman +5
NBC News/Marist* 9/27 – 10/1 636 LV 3.9 48 38 Orman +10

(Please note: Our model uses separately calculated averages from weighted polls based on PPD’s Pollster Scorecard. Above is the raw spread and PPD average, which is 46.5 – 43.5.)[/tab]
[tab title=”State Data”]

POLITICS

 Kansas National Average
Partisanship
% Republican/Lean Republican 47 39
% Democratic/Lean Democratic 34 43
Registered Republicans 765,398 —
Registered Democrats 422,181 —
Unaffiliated/Undeclared 535,160 —
Registered Libertarians 12,656 —
Ideology
% Conservative 38 36
% Moderate 36 36
% Liberal 20 23
Presidential Job Approval
% Approve 32.7 40
Partisan Voting Index
Strongly Republican R+12 —

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A pair of new polls in the

People's Pundit Daily
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