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Americans joining ISIS

Supporters of Al-Qaeda’s Syria affiliate Al-Nusra Front hold placards calling Syrian President Bashar al-Assad a “terrorist” and denouncing Arab states that have joined anti-Islamic State group campaign, as they demonstrate in the northern city of Alepppo on September 24, 2014. (Photo credit ZEIN AL-RIFAI/AFP/Getty Images)

Federal prosecutors on Monday charged suburban Chicago teen Mohammed Hamza Khan, 19, with attempting to provide material support to a terrorist group. The arrest came after Khan told his parents he was going to Syria to join the Islamic State because he was upset about the “immoral” decay in Western society.

Khan, who resided in the southwest Chicago suburb of Bolingbrook, was arrested by the FBI’s Chicago Joint Terrorism Task Force at 10:30 PM Saturday for allegedly attempting to travel overseas in support of terrorism. According to the criminal complaint viewable below — he bought a ticket to Istanbul and was scheduled to arrive in Turkey on Sunday. Particularly concerning is that the ticket was roundtrip, suggesting he attempted to return to the U.S. to carry out an act of terror.

“FIRST and FOREMOST, PLEASE MAKE SURE TO NOT TELL THE AUTHORITIES For if this were to happen it will jeopardize not only the safety of us but our family as well,” read letter addressed to Khan’s parents authorities say was found in a car used by Khan but owned by his father.

In the three-page letter, Kahn also said that he felt “an obligation” to go to the so-called Sharia law caliphate established by the terrorist group in Syria and Iraq. He said he was upset that, as an adult, he was obligated to pay taxes that would be used to kill his “Muslim brothers and sisters” and that he was angry with society.

“We are all witness that the western societies are getting more immoral day by day,” Khan told his parents, according to the complaint. “I do not want my kids being exposed to filth like this.”

Authorities detained Kahn at the airport while they raided the home after Austrian Airlines tipped them off regarding something suspicious in his itinerary. PPD was not able to uncover the details of the tip.

In addition to the note to his parents in the car, authorities found multiple handwritten documents in support of Islamic State and a list of contacts in Syria. The FBI said that Kahn was to meet an ISIS contact who would help him cross the Syria-Turkish border undetected.

“Islamic State in Iraq and Levant,” Khan allegedly wrote in materials found at his parents’ home when the FBI executed a search warrant. “Here to stay. We are the lions of the war [unintelligible]. My nation, the dawn has emerged.”

FBI agents said he acknowledged making contact online with a person at the airport during interrogation, though the individual is unnamed in the complaint. That individual gave him the name of a contact who was to take him to ISIS in Syria after he arrived in Turkey. Khan told FBI agents he planned to assist ISIS in some type of public service such as a police force, humanitarian work or a combat role.

However, a roundtrip ticket was set for departure on Saturday Sep. 26 from Chicago to Istanbul, but listed the return date for later this week. That presumably would not be enough time to carry out his alleged duties.

Khan waived his Miranda rights and told agents he had no intention of returning to U.S., authorities said. Khan told FBI agents that an individual he met online provided him the phone number for a Turkish contact who would help him get to Islamic State territory.

FBI officials said no more arrests had been made in Khan’s case but that it is still under investigation. According to FBI Director James Comey, there are some 100 Americans who have tried to leave America to join ISIS. He added that there were about 12 U.S. citizens who are in Syria fighting for the Islamic state.

“Ultimately, an American citizen, unless their passport’s revoked, is entitled to come back,” Comey said in a recent interview. “So, someone who’s fought with ISIL, with American passport wants to come back, we will track them very carefully.”

The slight, bearded Khan wore an orange jail uniform at his appearance and could be seen speaking with his attorney before his hearing started. The judge ordered that Khan be held at least until his detention hearing Oct. 9. Khan will appear again in court Thursday to determine whether he will be held in jail or released on bail.

If convicted, Khan could be sentenced to 15 years in prison and a $250,000 fine.

[scribd id=242088577 key=key-JVU77nIGtu3Jb6QcImNd mode=scroll]

Federal prosecutors on Monday charged suburban Chicago

Joe_Biden_Harvard_speech_ap

Vice President Joe Biden speaks to students faculty and staff at Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government in Cambridge, Mass. Thursday, Oct. 2, 2014. (AP Photo/Winslow Townson)

Vice President Joe Biden on Sunday was forced to issue another apology for remarks that offended U.S. allies the Obama administration is depending upon in the fight to “degrade and ultimately destroy” the Islamic State.

It was Biden’s second apology in just two days and came by phone Sunday to Crown Prince Abu Dhabi Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan. The White House said Biden assured the Saudis he never meant to suggest that his country was supporting Al Qaeda fighters in Syria. Al Nahyan is also the deputy supreme commander of the United Arab Emirates’ armed forces.

But Biden’s comments were suggestion or insinuation. Speaking Thursday at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, in Cambridge, Mass., the gaffe-prone vice president said the Turksm the Saudis, and the Emiratis recklessly funded and armed extremist groups linked to al Qaeda. The UAE a formal clarification, and Turkey President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was furious. He denied the charges, which Biden claimed he had admitted to him, and said the vice president would become “history to me” if the administration didn’t retract the allegations with an apology.

“The Turks … the Saudis, the Emirates, etc. What were they doing? They were so determined to take down (Syrian President Bashar) Assad and essentially have a proxy Sunni-Shia war,” Biden said during the speech at Harvard University.

“What did they do?” he continued. “They poured hundreds of millions of dollars and thousands of tons of weapons into anyone who would fight against Assad — except that the people who were being supplied were al Nusra and al Qaeda and the extremist elements of jihadis coming from other parts of the world.”

A White House spokesperson said Biden “clarified” his comments Sunday and further  the UAE’s strong steps to counter extremists and participation in U.S.-led air strikes on the Islamic State, also known as ISIL and ISIS.

While the vice president has a long and renowned history of making gaffes during speeches and appearances, the latest comments threatened to collapse the U.S.-led Arab coalition.

Last week, Turkey’s parliament finally approved military operations across the border in Syria and Iraq and for foreign troops to use Turkey’s territory. Turkey, a NATO ally, has key strategic air fields that are pivotal to the U.S. military presence in the region, thus Obama’s strategy “to degrade and ultimately destroy ISIL (ISIS or the Islamic State).”

With U.S. ground troops off the table — even though the American public now approves of sending them to defeat the Islamic State — the Obama administration has backed themselves into a corner and must now rely upon allies in the region to inevitably confront forces on the ground.

Turkey is just one of the regional powers Obama’s flailing strategy depends upon, and just one that Biden’s embarrassing comments insulted.

Biden also took and answered a question from the vice president of the student body by joking with profanity.

“Ain’t that a bitch?” Biden said. “I mean, excuse me, the vice president thing?”

Vice President Joe Biden on Sunday was

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m25YotUYiKE

Oct. 5, 2014: This week on FOX News Sunday, Julie Pace, Brit Hume, George Will, Juan Williams, and Chris Wallace discuss the multiple foreign and domestic crises facing the U.S. and the Obama administration, including a new damning memoir about Iraq by former Defense Sec. Leon Panetta.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JmmXT7VR-Qs

Fox News Sunday panel discusses the foreign

Joe_Biden_Harvard

Vice President Biden speaks at Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government in Cambridge, Mass, on Oct. 2, 2014. (AP)

Vice President Joe Biden is renowned for his off-the-cuff gaffes, but the aspiring presidential contender’s comments this week prompted both laughs and gasps from critics and supporters, alike.

Speaking at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, in Cambridge, Mass., said the stable world order the U.S. has “defended over the past several decades is literally fraying at the seams right now.”

Critics of the Obama administration pounced on the vice president’s comments. Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) charged Biden with being on the wrong side of every foreign policy debate over the last 30 years, and said Obama’s foreign policy is to blame for the instability.

Biden also took and answered a question from the vice president of the student body by joking with profanity.

“Ain’t that a bitch?” Biden said. “I mean, excuse me, the vice president thing?”

But one of Biden’s statements is receiving attention from a global leader who didn’t find it funny, at all. Biden said that “our biggest problem is our allies” in Syria.

“The Turks … the Saudis, the Emiratis, etc. What were they doing? They were so determined to take down (Syrian President Bashar) Assad and essentially have a proxy Sunni-Shia war,” Biden said.

“What did they do?” he continued. “They poured hundreds of millions of dollars and thousands of tons of weapons into anyone who would fight against Assad — except that the people who were being supplied were al Nusra and al Qaeda and the extremist elements of jihadis coming from other parts of the world.”

Turkey President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was furious, denied he ever made those remarks and said Biden would become “history to me” if the adminstration didn’t retract the allegations with an apology.

“Foreign fighters have never entered Syria from our country. They may come to our country as tourists and cross into Syria, but no one can say that they cross in with their arms.”

A spokesperson for the White House said Biden spoke directly to Erdogan to “clarify” comments and apologized for “any implication” that Turkey or other regional U.S. allies had intentionally supplied or helped in the growth of the Islamic State and other extremists groups in Syria.

Biden’s ill-conceived comment couldn’t have come at a worse time.

Last week, Turkey’s parliament finally approved military operations across the border in Syria and Iraq and for foreign troops to use Turkey’s territory. Turkey, a NATO ally, has key strategic air fields that are pivotal to the U.S. military presence in the region, thus Obama’s strategy “to degrade and ultimately destroy ISIL (ISIS or the Islamic State).”

According to the White House, just one day earlier Biden and Erdogan spoke on the telephone about ways the two countries can work together to restore security and stability to the region. Turkey, is expected this week to further define the role it will play in the U.S.-led coalition against the Islamic State terror army, who have captured large territories within Iraq and Syria and, in some areas,are now butting right up against the Turkish border.

Multiple reports have now confirmed what the Pentagon and known and argued all along, which is that the air campaign against the Islamic State is not stopping the terror army’s advances. In the Syrian town of Kobani, upwards of 400,000 residents and refugees are trapped, while 70,000 refugees have already fled across the border into Turkey. Kurdish fighters confirmed the terror army still advances despite airstrikes and, as of several days ago, were surrounded as ISIS militants seized the town with artillery.

PPD has not been able to Rooz Bahjat, a senior Kurdish military officer, who asked the media to tell his story.

“Tell the world what is happening” Bahjat said. “This could be a massacre if no help arrives.”

With U.S. ground troops off the table — even though the American public now approves of sending them to defeat the Islamic State — the Obama administration has backed themselves into a corner and must now rely upon allies in the region to inevitably confront forces on the ground.

Turkey is but one of the regional powers Obama’s strategy depends upon, yet Biden’s comments insulted them all.

Vice President Joe Biden is renowned for

Saturday Night Live mocked President Obama for blaming social media and U.S. intelligence for ISIS’ rise in a SNL parody of his “60 Minutes” interview. Last week, President Obama was interviewed by his favorite interviewer, Steve Kroft, during which he blamed the intelligence agencies for the administration’s mismanagement of Iraq and Syria.

The interview resulted in significant pushback from members of the U.S. intelligence community and the media.

The week also featured the president’s former defense secretary, Leon Panetta, who also appeared on “60 Minutes” in a not-so favorable interview to Obama two weeks prior. Panetta’s new memoir laid blame at the feet of the Obama administration, who he charged overruled the Defense Department, State Department and military advisors on Iraq for politically motivated ends.

In his upcoming memoir, Worthy Fights, to be published on October 7, 2014, Panetta writes that President Obama’s failing to secure a 2011 deal that would’ve left U.S. troops in Iraq was a case of intentional sabotage, leaving the Iraqi people at the mercy of the Islamic State.

Panetta wrote that members of the intelligence, defense and state departments “viewed the White House as so eager to rid itself of Iraq that it was willing to withdraw rather than lock in arrangements that would preserve our influence and interests.”

Saturday Night Live mocked President Obama for

In the contest to replace outgoing Iowa Democrat Sen. Tom Harkin, Republican Joni Ernst is now a slight but clear frontrunner in the Iowa Senate race. In December, 2013, the Iowa Senate race was the fifth article in what was a succession of articles offering expanded analysis on PPD’s 2014 Senate Map Predictions model. The state was chosen for purposes of relevance and timing because, similarly to what we are seeing now as well, it represented a clear rightward shift in the electorate, which was and still is more favorable to the Republican Party than the national political landscape.

It has been nearly one year and in many ways the race has been strikingly consistent. PPD’s model is a “big picture” model that lends more weight to the fundamentals than knee-jerk reaction to polling. That’s why — in March of 2014 — when polling showed Democrat Rep. Bruce Braley with a consistent lead over his potential GOP challengers, we released an article entitled “Why Iowa Senate Poll Showing Braley Leading GOP Hopefuls Doesn’t Mean Anything.”

Early in the cycle, at a time other election projection models and political prognosticators were gyrating wildly back-and-forth on their Iowa Senate ratings, we held a more bullish position toward the inevitable GOP nominee so long as they were viable. We were even more bullish on the GOP’s chances of taking Iowa in the event Joni Ernst prevailed in the crowded GOP primary field, which we favored her to do outright. She had all the makings of a top-tier candidate, despite what others argued.

Let’s take a look at where this race stand now.

[tabs id=”IASen” title=”Iowa Senate Race – Ernst Vs. Braley”] [tab title=”Analysis”]

joni_ernst_bruce_braley_ap_iowa_senate_race

Republican Joni Ernst (left) and Democrat Rep. Bruce Braley (right) face off in the contested Iowa Senate race in November. (Photo: AP)

Save for Josh Kraushaar at the National Journal, only PPD did not give Braley a clear edge because they foolishly bought into the Beltway buzz, which held he was a stronger candidate and blatantly ignored the preferences of Iowans. Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight may now be pretending he favored Ernst all along, but he repeatedly suggested she was a second-tier candidate.

“Our model will view the fundamentals of the race as slightly favoring Braley,” Silver wrote as recent as August. “The candidate-quality measures it evaluates all come out in his favor: He rates as being slightly closer to the center of the electorate than Ernst, he’s been elected to a higher office, and he’s raised considerably more money. Iowa is normally as purple as purple states get — the sort of state where candidate quality can make a difference.”

Here’s why he and all the other pundits were wrong.

PPD, too, calculates a “candidate strength” variable based on numerous factors, including ideology as Silver referred to, but we didn’t arrive at the same conclusion. By March, even before Ernst locked the nomination, it became clear that the data suggested Braley’s lead was soft, based solely upon name recognition and that the more Iowans seemed to get to know him the less they liked him. These are the makings of a weak candidate that sometimes even large money advantages cannot balance out.

That’s the problem with solely relying upon data. It separates a political prognosticator from the human factor, disconnecting them from voter emotion and sentiment, which inevitably leaves them blind to movement in the electorate.

Ernst, on the other hand, built a center-right to right coalition during the primary, landing endorsements from Sarah Palin, conservative groups like the Senate Conservatives Fund and The Club For Growth, while also getting the nod from Establishment icons like Mitt Romney and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio. She was a proficient fundraiser who covered all her bases, yet still maintained her real authentic, folksy Iowan image. She solidified her favorability among her base when she discussed castrating pigs in her breakout “Squeal” ad, and built her general election appeal by running a campaign that set her sights beyond the primary.

Iowans consistently expressing their desire to see a Republican-controlled Senate and aligned themselves firmly with the GOP agenda. Quinnipiac University — a solidly rated firm on PPD’s Pollster Scorecard — found Iowan voters by a margin of 46 – 41 percent said as early as the spring that they wanted the Republican Party to control the U.S. Senate, while a less stellar firm Harper Polling found Iowa voters by a margin of 42 – 38 percent want a Republican senator.

If not for Quinnipiac and the fact Iowans approved of Republican Sen. Chuck Grassley far more than outgoing Democrat Sen. Tom Harkin, we may not have given Harper a second look. By a 2 to 1 margin, Iowa voters repeatedly said they wanted a senator who opposes ObamaCare and a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants (before the border crisis), and a plurality wanted someone who will oppose stricter gun laws.

That said, Iowa is still slightly more Democratic than the nation as a whole, and Bruce Braley has single-handedly thrown what little advantage partisan leanings may have offered him out the window. First, he was caught on video trashing Iowa’s favorite senator in the same breath he trashed Iowa farmers. Then, he was caught on video falsely claiming he was a farmer, which he isn’t, The third and final blunder came after he was caught lying about why he hasn’t been attending hearings for the Veteran’s Affairs Committee.

Elections have little in common with baseball, but in this case three strikes and Braley’s out.

Since September 10, he led Ernst by just 1 point in only one survey, which was conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, a firm that is banned from both our model and average after PPD’s Scorecard analyzed their past 50 surveys. This pollster not only missed the 3.8 percent margin of error by roughly 2 points a supermajority of the time, but during an equally shameful number of times, they also produced results 3 points more Democratic than the actual result.

Early voting in Iowa tends to favor Democrats and has been underway for quite a while. Before releasing this final rating — or, at least we anticipate it to be — we had thoroughly analyzed early voting data, which show performance increases on behalf of both the Republicans and Democrats from 2010, but shy of 2012. Worth noting, Democrats have watched their early voting advantage erode, particularly over the last week. Too many pundits focus on ballot requests when they should be focusing on ballots received.

As of October 3, the Iowa Secretary of State received 31,437 Democratic ballots and 20,732 Republican ballots. Although it may seem as if Democrats are outperforming, they previously had an approximate 2 to 1 advantage and will likely be outvoted 2 to 1 on Election Day.

Joni Ernst is now a 70-percent favorite to make history by becoming Iowa’s first female elected senator, leaving only the state of Mississippi to hold that controversial distinction.

News, Analysis & Commentary

Full: Ernst, Braley Trade Blows In First Iowa Senate Debate – 9/29/2014

Iowa Senate Race Firm ‘Toss-Up’ Following Joni Ernst’s Nomination Domination – 6/7/2014

Why Iowa Senate Poll Showing Braley Leading GOP Hopefuls Doesn’t Mean Anything – 3/13/2014

Iowa Senate Race Rating: Analysis Finds Dem Disadvantage – 12/19/2013

[/tab]
[tab title=”Polls”]

Poll Date Sample MoE Ernst (R) Braley (D) Raw Spread
PPD Average 9/10 – 9/28 45.5 41.1 Ernst +4.4
Gravis Marketing 9/28 – 9/30 1192 LV 2.8 50 41 Ernst +9
PPP (D) 9/25 – 9/28 1192 LV 2.8 45 43 Ernst +2
Des Moines Register* 9/21 – 9/24 546 LV 4.2 44 38 Ernst +6
Rasmussen Reports 9/17 – 9/18 750 LV 4.0 43 43 Tie
FOX News 9/14 – 9/16 600 LV 4.0 41 41 Tie
Quinnipiac 9/10 – 9/15 1167 LV 2.9 50 44 Ernst +6

(Please note: Our model uses separately calculated averages from weighted polls based on PPD’s Pollster Scorecard. Above is the raw spread and average. When we weigh pollsters based on past results, Ernst leads by an average of 6.3 points.)[/tab]
[tab title=”State Data”]

POLITICS

Iowa National Average
Partisanship
% Republican/Lean Republican 40 39
% Democratic/Lean Democratic 41 43
Registered Republicans 600,439
Registered Democrats 618,775
Unaffiliated/Undeclared 703,955
Registered Other 5,130
Ideology
% Conservative 36 36
% Moderate 37 36
% Liberal 22 23
Presidential Job Approval
% Approve 38 43
Partisan Voting Index
Barely Democratic D+1

[/tab] [/tabs]

In the contest to replace outgoing Iowa

Megyn Kelly cornered State Department spokeswoman Jen Psaki Thursday night over the administration’s contradictions regarding U.S. troops withdrawals from Iraq. The administration has answered criticisms that they pulled U.S. troops out of Iraq too early by claiming the majority of Iraqis did not want the U.S. presences and that the two countries could not come to an agreement over whether U.S. forces would have immunity from Iraqi prosecution.

However, that ever-changing narrative fell apart on “The Kelly File” when host Megyn Kelly cited numerous inconsistencies with White House claims and challenges from former members of the Obama administration, including several recent revelations from former Defense Secretary Leon Panetta.

In his upcoming memoir Worthy Fights, Panetta said that President Obama’s failing to secure a 2011 deal that would’ve left U.S. troops in Iraq was a case of intentional sabotage, leaving the Iraqi people at the mercy of the Islamic State.

Panetta, who served as CIA director and defense secretary during the negotiations, also took to “60 Minutes” at the end of September to make the case against the president’s decisions in the region.

Psaki insisted that these accounts of what happened three years ago were not based on facts, arguing that the U.S. couldn’t simply force all those troops on a sovereign nation, and troops didn’t have the protections they needed.

Kelly left Psaki speechless when she played a video of the third 2012 presidential debate with Mitt Romney, in which President Obama flat-out admitted he didn’t want to leave a residual force of several thousand troops behind in Iraq. Now that ISIS has exploited that decision, the White House is in damage control changing stories in an attempt to avert responsibility.

Psaki also told Kelly that even if there was a residual force, “it would not have prevented” what’s occurred in Iraq over the past few months.

However, with Fallujah falling in January of 2014, the rise of ISIS has not been a quickly moving development. Further, Panetta disagrees with that assessment and he backed by former Ambassador Ryan Crocker and Sen. John (R-AZ) and Lindsey Graham (R-SC), who pounced on the White House with Panetta’s version of events, a version they have been arguing for years is what they saw happen first hand.

“We could have gotten that agreement if we had been a little more persistent, flexible, and creative. But what really cost us was the political withdrawal,” Crocker told Defense One in a recent interview. “We cut off high-level political engagement with Iraq when we withdrew our troops.”

“The latest statements by two of the most respected national security officials to serve under President Obama definitively refute the falsehood that this administration has told the American people for years about their efforts to leave a residual force in Iraq,” the senators said in a statement. “As we have said all along … the Obama Administration never made a full effort to leave a residual force in Iraq.”

Panetta made clear in his memoir that he has no doubt that the politically motivated decision to pull out of Iraq far earlier than military advisors suggested is the cause of the current crisis.

“To this day, I believe that a small U.S. troop presence in Iraq could have effectively advised the Iraqi military on how to deal with al-Qaeda’s resurgence and the sectarian violence that has engulfed the country,” he wrote.

Megyn Kelly cornered State Department spokeswoman Jen

A discouraged worker sits and waits at a jobs fair. (Photo: REUTERS)

The Labor Department reported Friday that the U.S. economy added 248,000 jobs in the month of September, beating out economists’ forecasts of 215,000 jobs. The headline unemployment rate fell to 5.9 percent during the month, the lowest since July 2008. Wall Street expected it to hold steady at 6.1 percent. However, the labor force participation rate dropped to 62.7 percent, the lowest since February 1978. Economists forecast it to hold steady at 62.8 percent.

While 200k-plus monthly job creation is cause for optimism, economic policy-makers are focusing beyond the headline numbers, including the unemployment rate and the number of monthly jobs created. With so many Americans reporting poor economic conditions despite the positive news, experts are now looking more at hourly wages, labor force participation, average work weeks, and other indicators that offer a broader gauge of the health of labor markets.

The abysmal labor force participation rate isn’t the only concerning piece of data that paint a picture of a labor market that is fundamentally weak. The employment-population ratio, which is currently at 59 percent, is a measure that receives little attention. But, according to Keith Hall, the former head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics from 2008 – 2012, the number warrants significant concern.

“It’s lower than it was when the recession ended. I think that’s a remarkable statistic,” says Hall, who is now a senior research fellow at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University in Fairfax, Virginia. “This has been a very slow, very bad recovery,” he says. “And I think the numbers have really struggled as a result. In fact, I’ve been very disappointed in the coverage of the numbers.”

The employment-population ratio has been at 59.0 percent for the fourth consecutive month, but has only increased .3 percent since September of 2013, when it stood at 58.7 percent.

There were 698,000 discouraged workers — or, people who have given up looking for work because they do not believe they will or can find it — in the month of September alone. Another 2.2 million Americans were marginally attached to the labor force, which are persons who wanted and were available for work, and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months. They are not counted among the unemployed because they were determined by the BLS to not have searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey.

The U-6 rate, which is defined as the “total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force,” stands at a more accurate 11.6 percent.

Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen has repeated cited a lack in wage growth as a cause for concern and a primary factor behind the Fed’s monetary policy, which currently consists of putting off interest rate increases and cutbacks to money-printing and bond-buying. Yellen said wage growth is an indicator the Fed is watching for signs labor markets are strengthening since the declining headline unemployment rate has a great deal to do with the number of people quitting on the American dream.

Average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls fell by 1 cent to $24.53 in September. Wage growth has risen by just 2 percent year-over-year, which sadly, actually represents a slight improvement over prior months when the rate averaged around 1.5 percent. Even though it appears the long-term trend is headed in the right direction, it isn’t. It is still well below the 3 – 3.5 percent rate the Fed views as necessary to keep inflation at its desired 2 percent target rate, and wage growth to impact the purchasing power of working Americans.

The fundamental cause of wage stagnation is the poor quality of jobs created in the U.S. economy since the Great Recession ended. Part-time, low-paying jobs represent the vast majority of jobs created and that unfortunately didn’t change in September.

Approximately half of all jobs created in September came from the part-time, low-wage riddled sectors, including employment services (+34,000), retail trade (35,000), food and beverage (20,000), and leisure and hospitality (20,000). Totaling 109,000, there is little wonder why the number of involuntary part-time workers was unchanged again in September and stands at a sad 7.1 million Americans. These are able-bodied Americans who want full-time work, but cannot find an opportunity to do so.

The long-term share of jobs created held by these low-wage jobs is over 70 percent.

In economics, particularly with respect to the jobs market, the number of jobs isn’t the only piece of data that determines whether the American people are enjoying a strong economy. While the number of jobs created came in just under the 250,000 jobs needed to be created monthly in order to keep pace with population increases, for the first time in U.S. history the middle age and younger populations are looking at a far less prosperous future than the baby boomers looking ahead to retirement.

And that already bleak assessment assumes economics and economic policy occurs in a bubble, which of course it does not.

With the Federal Reserve paying such close attention to the factors discussed above, it should be reported how future monetary policy will inevitably impact the growing national debt, which currently sits just under $18 trillion and has the potential to erase the already weak gains in the labor market.

Minutes from the last meeting of the policy-making committee revealed a heated debate within the Fed over the timing and trajectory of rate hikes. Fed Chair Yellen, while acknowledging the incentive to keep wages low, says the “slack” in low wages must be tightened before raising interest rates, But inflation “hawks” argue that keeping rates low will invite runaway inflation and lead to asset bubbles. It is a debate in which every outcome seems to ensure the American worker becomes the loser.

Though wages are far too low, Yellen and others say wage growth must be modest due to the risks of inflationary pressure. When wages rise too quickly it can lead to runaway inflation, which becomes a vicious cycle. It will move on corporate profits eventually, and the cost of production thus final sale of goods will increase, quickly eroding the realized gains in Americans’ purchasing power.

Inflation “doves” argue that when rates increase it will increase borrowing costs for consumers, making it more expensive to get a mortgage or a car loan, or for small businesses to get a loan for expansion. On the other hand, hawks point to the fact that these economic events will happen regardless of the Fed’s policy, noting that increased rates will also raise the cost of borrowing for the government, which will soon find itself holding an unsustainable amount of debt if increases are not done slowly while progress is closely scrutinized.

Each worst-case scenario ends up hurting the worker the most, suggesting two positions that are falling woefully short of replacing shady monetary policy with sound regulatory and economic policies that would lead to more broad-based wealth creation.

The Labor Department said the U.S. economy

Ebola patient family home

A worker power washes the sidewalk in front of the apartment unit at The Ivy Apartments where a man diagnosed with the Ebola virus was staying in Dallas, Texas October 2, 2014. Up to 100 people may have had direct or indirect contact with the first person diagnosed with Ebola in the United States, and four people have been quarantined in a Dallas apartment, health officials said on Thursday. (Photo: REUTERS/Mike Stone)

The family of Ebola patient Thomas Eric Duncan were legally quarantined Thursday after they did not comply with Dallas health officials requests that they stay home. The development comes as officials admit Duncan lied to examiners and on his questionnaire about having contact with individuals exposed or infected with the Ebola virus when he was being screened at the airport in Liberia.

Louise Troh said Thursday that she was tired of being locked up and had demanded health authorities decontaminate her home. Troh is now under a confinement order that also bans visitors, which was imposed after she the other family members decided they would come and go as they pleased. Texas State Health Commissioner David Lakey said the order would ensure Troh, her 13-year-old son and two nephews can be closely monitored for signs of the disease.

“If people leave, even though they’re asymptomatic, if they’re not at home when we go out to do our surveillance test on them, then that defeats the purpose of that surveillance test and that endangers them … if they were to be infected, they need to know that as quickly as possible,” said Dallas County Judge Clay Jenkins. “So it’s for their benefit and everyone else’s.”

Many community members are furiously bombarding Dallas school officials with statements of anger and concern over the potential exposure the younger family members might have presented. In total, upwards of five students reportedly were potentially exposed to Ebola attended public school afterward. Sally Nuran, manager of the Ivy Apartments where Duncan was visiting family, confirmed during a press conference Thursday that the lease for the apartment lists one adult and two children. However, she did not know how many people were currently occupying the space.

“Our nurses are making two rounds every school day to every classroom just to check to see if anyone has questions or if there are any symptoms,” said Mike Miles, superintendent of Dallas Independent School District. He also said that additional custodial staff members were now on hand to further clean and disinfect the buildings the students had attended.

Meanwhile, Duncan’s neighbors in the Liberian capital believe he become infected when he helped a sick pregnant neighbor a few weeks ago. Though reports suggest it was not clear if he had learned of the woman’s diagnosis before traveling, she died shortly after, placing the timeline of events at a point when she would have already been symptomatic.

The Liberian authorities said they will prosecute Duncan if and when he returns for lying about not having any contact with an infected person.

Duncan filled out a form on September 19 about his health and recent travel activities before leaving on a plane trip to the U.S. that first made a stop in Brussels, then Reagan National Airport in Washington D.C., before finally stopping at Dulles Airport in Dallas, Texas. The Associated Press obtained the formed from officials, on which one question asked whether Duncan had cared for an Ebola patient or touched the body of anyone who had died in an area affected by Ebola. He answered no to all the questions.

“We expect people to do the honorable thing,” said Binyah Kesselly, chairman of the board of directors of the Liberia Airport Authority in Monrovia.

Yet,CDC director Dr. Tom Frieden on Friday dismissed suggestions that people traveling from West Africa should not be allowed into the U.S., though several infectious disease doctors have come forward publicly to express their opposition to that position.

“The fact is that if we tried to seal the border, it would not work because people are allowed to travel,” he said on “Good Morning America.” “It would backfire because it would make it harder to stop the outbreak.”

Duncan arrived in Dallas on September 20 and fell ill a few days later. The Dallas emergency room first sent Duncan home with antibiotics last week even though he told a nurse he had been in West Africa. He returned to the emergency room two days later via ambulance.

The family of Ebola patient Thomas Eric

People's Pundit Daily
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