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LEGEND: SAFE DEM | LIKELY DEM | LEANS DEM | TOSS-UP | LEANS GOP | LIKELY GOP | SAFE GOP

As Republican candidates gain ground in contested Senate races nationwide, some incumbent Democrats are actually seeing their chances at reelection increase. While last time we released expanded analysis for four big Senate races moving into the Republican column, in this analysis we will we examining races moving against the GOP.

As was the case with our last analysis, there are three tabs for viewing, “Analysis, Polls and State Data.” Following the brief analysis for each race, we have also included past news, analysis, and commentary relevant to each race. But before we get into the top four disappointing races of the 2014 midterm election cycle for Republicans, it is important to recall that Republicans are now favored to net the needed six seats to reclaim control of the U.S. Senate.

With Montana, West Virginia and South Dakota all but gone already, the needed seats will likely be netted in Alaska, Arkansas, Louisiana and Colorado. It is also looking more and more likely that Iowa will soon join the other favored Republican states, but that’s another article.

[tabs id=”KSSen” title=”Kansas Senate Race – Roberts Vs. Orman”] [tab title=”Analysis”]

Democrat-turned-independent business Greg Orman (left), and incumbent Republican Sen. Pat Roberts (right).

The Republican Establishment really bungled the Kansas Senate race. With control of the U.S. Senate on the line, Washington Republicans knew full-well they could not afford to defend a seat in a deeply conservative state. But now that the Supreme Court of Kansas has ruled that Democrat Chad Taylor must be removed from the ballot, incumbent Sen. Pat Roberts will have to fend off a challenge from business Greg Orman in a two-way field. While most pundits view this as a greater challenge for Roberts, we aren’t sold on that assessment.

While the argument for why a two-way race hurts Roberts in the short run is valid, how it affects the race in the long-term could actually prove helpful to him. Sure, a divided opposition is usually a boon in politics, but going forward, the question is now whether Roberts can expose Orman for the Democrat he truly is. With Taylor still in the race this would be far more difficult to do.

Orman ran as a Democrat in 2008 and, Republicans accuse the Democratic Party of designing this tactic all along. We have spoken to former Taylor campaign operatives who now share Republicans’ suspicions. But this is just the first of a two-prong challenge Roberts must meet to save his own seat and, perhaps, a new Republican majority.

The polling in Kansas must be taken with a grain of salt. Aside from the state’s dominant Republican nature, Roberts is down because he is losing voters from his center to Orman and shrinking the electorate by losing voters on his right. We remain very skeptical that Orman can win this race because, not only does the Roberts camp have a few tricks up their sleeve, but we find it hard to believe conservatives who backed Milton Wolfe and others in the primary will allow Harry Reid to keep his position as majority leader.

Let’s first look at the state’s political leanings, which of course in all of the races, we encourage readers to follow-up with by looking at compiled data under “State Data”    tabs.

Kansas has not elected a Democratic senator since President Franklin Delano Roosevelt first won the presidency. In the 98 years Kansan voters have been able to directly elected senators, since the pass of the Seventeenth Amendment, a majority or plurality of voters chosen a Democrat just three times, the last time in 1932. George McGill won a three-way race with 46 percent of the vote, but lost with 44 percent during his re-election bid just six years later. Republicans outnumber Democrats nearly 2 to 1 and, we know from the “Strongly Republican” PVI (Partisan Voting Index) that registered independents, who also outnumber Democrats, vote overwhelmingly Republican.

So, as we previously said, the real challenge for Roberts will be to stop Orman’s attempt at a great magic act — convince Kansan voters he’s not a Democrat. He will have help to do it. Former Kansas Sen. Bob Dole and Arizona Sen. John McCain, two highly revered and admired former presidential candidates, both hit the stump for Roberts last week, and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush is heading there for campaign event this week. But it will be visits from Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) and Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI) in October that we will be watching the closest. Whether the two conservative icons are up to the task of helping to mend broken fences with conservatives will be significant.

The bottom line is that the Republican Party now finds itself in a self-created disaster, a product of each wing of the party always threatening to take their ball and go home if their guy doesn’t win the nomination. They will have to decide whether voting for the other Republican is as bad as allowing Democrats to keep control of the Upper Chamber.

On a final note, even if Roberts pulls it off in the end, which we believe he is still favored to do with a slight 56 percent chance of success, giving the Kansas Senate race a “Leans Republican” rating, he will have drained precious resources from national Republicans that were needed in other states such as North Carolina, New Hampshire and Michigan.

(Update: Roberts lost his statistical advantage on October 1. The race is now rated a “Toss-Up” though it still leans slightly 51 percent in the incumbent’s favor. The nearly identical statistical advantage, though statistically insignificant, is also enjoyed by Gov. Sam Brownback, who is now in a “Toss-Up” race, himself.)

News, Analysis & Commentary

I Don’t Think We’re In Kansas Anymore, RINO 9/4/2014
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[tabs id=”MNSen” title=”Minnesota Senate Race – Franken Vs. McFadden”] [tab title=”Analysis”]

Left, in this June 12, 2014 file photo, Republican Senate candidate Mike McFadden is seen; right, Incumbent Sen. Al Franken (D-MN) speaks during a news conference on Capitol Hill in Washington. (Photos: Jim Mone/AP (left)|Cliff Owen/AP (right)

Even though the race in Minnesota remains volatile, we see incumbent Democrat Sen. Al Franken strengthening his position against against Republican businessman Mike McFadden. Franken, who operatives tell us is volatile himself, has managed to keep his low profile and avoid one of his foot-in-mouth symptoms from flaring up in public. This race remains a wildcard, however, for a number of reasons.

First, while Republicans tend to sink a ton of money into Michigan with the hope of turning the Wolverine State Red, Minnesota has actually been nearly two points more Republican in the last four presidential elections. It has voted even more Republican in the last three Senate races. This was on full display when we translated the Obama-Romney rematch poll into electoral votes. If the 2012 presidential election were held again today, Romney would carry Minnesota, yet still lose Michigan.

But there is something else still stewing underneath the surface.

Franken defeated incumbent Republican Sen. Norm Coleman by just 312 votes in a wave election for Democrats, and that was only after a lengthy recount process that suspiciously ended after someone “found” a few thousand more votes for Franken in their trunk. Did Franken and the Democrats steal the election? I don’t know, most likely. But it doesn’t matter what we think, only what the voters in the state think, and there are many who still feel robbed. In a midterm election cycle that all data suggest Republican enthusiasm will overwhelm Democrat turnout, the combination of uncertainties is alarming.

Franken would not have already spent $10 million by mid-summer on his reelection if he thought the polling was accurate. The average of polls continues to show Franken leading McFadden by just under 10 points, with the incumbents approval around the 50-percent threshold. But operatives from both campaigns tell us they believe this will be a low single-digit race.

A recent report from ABC News highlighted the impact the ISIS threat may have on the race, though it is unclear at this point how much of it is speculation. We simply do not have the data to tip us in either direction. But McFadden is hitting Franken on the lack of action in light of the reports an enormous number of ISIS fighters from America are from Minnesota, which has a large Muslim population and several known radical mosques. Franken contends he is on the problem, and has just sent a letter to Justice Department officials asking them for an update.

“Talk is cheap,” McFadden says in response. “Minnesota kids continue to be recruited. There has not been any policy put in place to stop this.”

We will be watching this development closely. Perhaps, with time running out, McFadden has hit his stride and concluded what we have been saying for months — that he must fight for every vote to win. But, as of now, Franken now has a 69 percent chance of defeating McFadden in November, just above the threshold to move the Minnesota Senate race back to the “Likely Democrat” rating we held it at for most of the cycle.

News, Analysis & Commentary

2014 Senate Predictions Update: GOP Favored, Wave Or No Wave – 8/4/2014

How ISIS Is Complicating Al Franken’s Election Bid – 9/16/2014
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[tabs id=”NCSen” title=”North Carolina Senate Race – Hagan Vs. Tillis”] [tab title=”Analysis”]

North Carolina Republican senatorial candidate and state House Speaker Thom Tillis (left) talks to the media after a debate at Davidson College in Davidson, N.C., Tuesday, April 22, 2014. He faces incumbent Democratic Sen. Key Hagan (right) in the North Carolina Senate race. (AP Photo/Chuck Burton)

The North Carolina Senate race is turning out to be one of — if not the most — difficult races in a state carried by Mitt Romney in 2012. After concluding an absolute bombardment of attack ads from Democratic groups was worth the money, we are moving this race back to a “Toss-Up” to reflect the now 54 percent chance Thom Tillis defeats incumbent Democrat Sen. Kay Hagan in November.

We realize that others see this race more favorably for the Democrat, but we are a “big picture” model that does not allow gyrations in poor polling outweigh the fundamentals of the race. Further, when we actually look at the polling everyone is so surprised over, we find more than enough reason to remain cautious.

The ad blitz no doubt damaged the image of Thom Tillis over the past few weeks, but Hagan’s lead is only the result of a modest improvement in her support, which remains below 45 percent. Meanwhile, the majority of her lead is the result of Tillis seeing his numbers plummet during the ad blitz. But we see evidence that his effort to improve image may be having an affect already.

In fact, just under two weeks ago it was slightly over 5 percentage points and is now just over 3 points, showing what is predictably soft support. Libertarian candidate Sean Haugh, who everyone agrees is taking more votes from Tillis than from Hagan, is beginning to see his support decline somewhat.

Further, we have repeatedly demonstrated the fact that robo-call polls are of poor quality, as is the case with both PPP and Rasmussen Reports. As far as polling North Carolina in general — among polls conducted at this point in the cycle — our research shows pollsters have projected results 3 – 5 points more Democratic than the actual vote results more than 70 percent of time.

Unlike say, Mitch McConnell in Kentucky, another incumbent with terrible approval ratings, Hagan cannot rely upon her state’s overwhelming political leanings. Our research into the Census data shows the increase in eligible black vote is simply not enough to combat the measured rightward shift documented by Gallup’s annual party ID by-state survey. In fact, it isn’t even clear whether “purple” is a correct characterization of the Tar Heel State, nor whether pollsters are even being realistic with their projected makeup of the midterm electorate.

For instance, Hagan’s 8.5-point margin against Sen. Elizabeth Dole in 2008 far outperformed typical Democratic candidates in the state, including President Obama who enjoyed overwhelming black turnout and support. However, that was in an environment so favorable to Democrats they won the popular vote nationwide in U.S. House races by 10.6 percentage points. That data suggest Hagan may not even have won that election in a neutral political environment, let along an environment favorable to the GOP. As of now, Republicans have a roughly 4-point lead on the generic congressional ballot, and a near-20-point lead in the states with competitive Senate races.

Still, Tillis has some major image repair to do if he wants to win this race, which is why candidate strength is so important. If Tillis ends up losing the race, it will have been the result of a sit back and play it safe strategy that enabled Democrats to exploit his role as State House Speaker. Regardless, with Hagan’s approval in the 30s, the competitiveness of this race — particularly the very real possibility they could lose it — is a huge disappointment for Republicans.

News, Analysis & Commentary

Analysis Of North Carolina Senate Race Finds A Tar-Heel ‘Toss-Up’ – 12/26/2013

NC Senate Polls Confirm Dems’ Fears: Hagan Is Hanging By A Thread, If That – 4/2/2014

Winds Of Change Blowing In North Carolina Senate Race – 8/7/2014
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[tabs id=”ORSen” title=”Oregon Senate Race – Hagan Vs. Tillis”] [tab title=”Analysis”]

Republican U.S. Senate candidate Monica Wehby (left) holds her election night party in Oregon City. She is challenging Democrat incumbent Sen. Jeff Merkley (right) in the upcoming midterm elections. (Photos: Landov/Getty Images)

The Oregon Senate rating, itself, has not changed. But that shouldn’t be construed as a lack of movement in the Oregon Senate race.  According to PPD’s 2014 Senate Map Predictions model, incumbent Democrat Sen. Jeff Merkley now has an 84 percent chance of defeating Republican challenger Monica Wehby in November, up from 74 percent first assigned in April.

Because a probability from 65 to 84 percent is assigned a “Likely” rating, we cannot stress enough how significant it is that Merkley has moved the needle just under a “Safe” rating. In a year when Democrats retaining control of the U.S. Senate is looking more and more difficult, it is a pretty extraordinary accomplishment.

We are offering only a brief recap, as we just explained our rationale in a recent update to this race. But it is worth noting that “candidate strength” is the problem for Republicans in this race, though other variables show the race was always going to be a heavy lift for the GOP.

Dr. Monica Wehby, a children’s brain surgeon, started off the leader of a small field of Republican candidates hoping to expand the 2014 Senate map by running particularly strong in Blue and Blue-leaning states. With Oregon’s ObamaCare disaster, and her unique medical profession and experience, she was in an excellent position to score an upset.

Yet, contrary to Mr. Karl Rove’s analysis, we are seeing a familiar story developing here. The Republican Establishment has a nasty way of dismissing serious stories without sufficient explanation, so when a recent headline emerged charging Wehby’s campaign of plagiarism involving the candidate’s policy proposals, they went into arrogant damage control mode.

After giving the campaign a week to explain themselves and receiving no response, we concluded their strategy was to hide. Make no mistake, this is a losing strategy and always has been. We are now seeing this in recent polling from SurveyUSA, though we don’t believe the margin is correct.

News, Analysis & Commentary

Wehby Plagiarism Story Made Worse By Disputed Excuse – 9/19/2014

Oregon Senate Race Unaffected By GOP Movement Nationwide – 9/22/2014
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LEGEND: SAFE DEM | LIKELY DEM | LEANS DEM | TOSS-UP | LEANS GOP | LIKELY GOP | SAFE GOP

There are roughly five weeks to go until Election Day, and we are beginning to get a slightly better picture of how the competitive Senate races are panning out. It was right about this time in 2012 when Democrats saw their position strengthen and races began to break their way nationwide. Still, a lot can happen from now to November, but with West Virginia, South Dakota, and Montana firmly in the Republican corner, the Democrats appear to be at least two seats shy of keeping their majority.

While we are talking Senate races that are moving toward the GOP now, there has been new data suggesting some aren’t panning out the way they had hoped. We will share those with you in the following days. We are a “big picture” model, so we suspect that the polling variable may just be tilting some of the election projections — perhaps unfairly — away from the GOP this cycle for two reasons.

First, there have been fewer polls this cycle than in previous cycles, which is causing volatility and that can make it more difficult to ascertain if what appears to be movement is nothing more than built-in pollster bias. Second, and further compounding the problem, is that the majority of polls this cycle are of poor quality.

The post-Labor Day generic congressional ballot results are beginning to show a clear and, perhaps further widening, rather consistent lead for the Republicans. The data on a few races warrants some additional scrutiny before deciding races are truly moving against the fundamentals and national political climate. For now, let’s take a look at the four big races moving into the Republican corner (or, in two cases further into the GOP corner). If you want a recap or have never read about the details of PPD’s 2014 Senate Map Predictions model, then by all means visit and take a look.

[tabs id=”AKSen” title=”Alaska Senate Race – Sullivan Vs. Begich”] [tab title=”Analysis”]

Republican Dan Sullivan (left) and incumbent Democratic Sen. Mark Begich. (Photos: AP)

The Alaska Senate race broke for Republican Dan Sullivan after incumbent Democrat Sen. Mark Begich crossed the line running a TV ad that highlighted the case involving 25-year-old Jerry Active, who is currently charged with murdering two grandparents and sexually assaulting their two-year-old granddaughter. The campaign ad blamed then-Attorney General Dan Sullivan for what the state even admitted was not his mistake that resulted in Active getting early release. The victim’s family asked Begich to pull the ad, but he refused to do so for several days, opting instead to run an equally offensive edited version.

Until then, Sen. Begich had run a flawless campaign that was remarkably successful in localizing the issues, rather than allowing Sullivan to make the election about the deeply unpopular Democratic Party and President Obama. But Begich was defying political gravity with his localized strategy, which basically asked voters to trust his character even though they may not necessarily agree with him on the issues. We, since Dec. of last year, have always contended the fundamentals would likely catch up to him. In a deeply red state with a PVI of R+12, which Mitt Romney easily won by 13 points, Begich boasts defeating scandal-laden Senator Ted Stevens in 2008 — a Democratic wave election no less — by under just 4,000 votes.

Though we have stressed the fundamentals in this race and cautioned about trusting surveys in notoriously hard-to-poll states such as “The Last Frontier,” even the polling data from pollsters who grossly under-predicted Sullivan’s primary support are beginning to reflect the ever-present reality of Alaska’s political leanings. Since Labor Day, Begich went from a 4.6 percent average lead in registered voter surveys to a nearly 5-point deficit on likely voter models. We have had this race teetering in “Leans Republican” territory for quite a while, but with a 66 percent chance of Sullivan defeating Begich in November, his race just teetered into “Likely Republican.”

News, Analysis & Commentary

Alaska Senate Race Rating And Analysis Bodes Bad For Begich – 12/15/2013

Alaska Senate Polls Catch Up To Begich Even With GOP Field Focused Inward – 3/24/2014

Begich Blew Flawless Local Campaign With Widely Condemned Ad – 9/4/2014

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[tabs id=”ARSen” title=”Arkansas Senate Race – Cotton Vs. Pryor”] [tab title=”Analysis”]

Incumbent Democratic Sen. Mark Pryor (left) and Republican Rep. Tom Cotton (right) will face off in the Arkansas Senate race in November.

The PPD model has always been more bullish on Rep. Tom Cotton in the Arkansas Senate race comparable to other models, particularly the well-respected guys at Crystal Ball. We previously disputed a decision they made to move the race to “Leans Democrat” based on one PPP Poll before again moving it all the way to “Leans Republican” where it sits now.

We have always been pretty clear on our assessment, which is, even though incumbent Democrat Sen. Mark Pryor is a strong candidate and is certainly no Blanche Lincoln, he is going — more likely than not — to lose. Now, the polling data is doing what we expected it to do, albeit at a slower and more gradual pace — it’s converging with the “big picture” fundamentals.

Notice that Mark Pryor’s increased share of the vote is almost entirely due to a single poll — CNN/Opinion Research — finding him at 47 percent support. Pryor’s challenged by the reality he must run stronger than usual for a Democrat in the only swing region of the state remaining — the South — which means he must outperform in Arkansas’s 4th Congressional District, and you may have already guessed that it happens to be represented by Rep. Tom Cotton. The district has continued to trend Republican, voting for Mitt Romney by a 26-point margin and in 2014 has a PVI (Partisan Voting Index) of R+15.

Post-Labor Day polling data has increased Cotton’s chances of victory from 64 percent since our last analysis to 70 percent, moving the rating from “Leans Republican” to just over “Likely Republican.”

News, Analysis & Commentary

Latest Arkansas Senate Poll Catching Up To PPD Rating, Cotton Favored Over Pryor – 2/6/2014

Pryor’s Strong, But Arkansas Senate Race Is No ‘Toss-Up’ – 5/18/2014

Cotton Pulls Away From Pryor In Arkansas Senate Polls, Breaks 50%-Threshold – 7/15/2014

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[tabs id=”COSen” title=”Colorado Senate Race – Gardner Vs. Udall”] [tab title=”Analysis”]

Rep. Cory Gardner (left) proves to be a challenging roadblock for vulnerable incumbent Democratic Senator Mark Udall (right).

Colorado, along with Iowa, had been on PPD’s election projection radar months before any of the other prognosticator even began paying attention. The dynamic of this race has changed dramatically since the National Journal released a May article entitled, “Colorado’s Forgotten Senate Race.”

Since the disastrous rollout of ObamaCare, Colorado voters have consistently reported low approval ratings for incumbent Sen. Mark Udall, well as President Obama. They’ve repeatedly said he doesn’t deserve reelection, and voter registration trends are very concerning to Democrats (See State Data tab for registration totals).

As we’ve previously explained, the entrance of Cory Gardner to the race was a game-changer, because he closed the ever-important talent gap, which sent this race into competitive territory when it significantly increased the Republican score on candidate strength.

Just after Labor Day, Udall began bombarding Gardner with heavy advertising and though it has now evened out, the incumbent will likely retain a slight money advantage. As of June 30, Udall had $5.7 million in cash on hand compared to Gardner’s $3.4 million, according to the FEC disclosures. Those numbers will soon be old and it may turn out that Udall’s burn rate is through the roof, but there is a larger picture here.

Advertising campaigns can often produce temporary — or, artificial — bounces in the polls. Yet, despite having already spent roughly $7,000,000 out of his $13,000,000 war chest by the beginning of August, mostly on attack ads aiming to define Gardner early, we are starting to see a fairly consistent lead for Gardner in the more-accurate likely voter polling samples.

Gardner is only a 56 percent favorite, but that’s just barely enough to put this race into the “Leans Republican” corner for the first time this cycle.

News, Analysis & Commentary

Colorado Senate Race Analysis: No Rocky Mountain High Approval Of Udall, At All – 1/11/2014

Colorado Senate Race Prediction Changed After Cory Gardner Closes Talent Gap – 2/28/2014

Colorado Senate Race Status Slips Further Away From Udall – 7/19/2014

Q-Poll: Gardner Surges Ahead Of Udall In Colorado Senate Race – 9/18/2014

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[tabs id=”LASen” title=”Louisiana Senate Race – Landrieu Vs. Cassidy”] [tab title=”Analysis”]

Incumbent Democrat Sen. Mary Landrieu (left) and Republican Rep. Bill Cassidy (right). (Photos: AP)

Incumbent Democrat Sen. Mary Landrieu’s chances at reelection have run against her all cycle and, after giving the incumbent the benefit of the doubt for months, in large part due to the nature of the jungle primary in the Louisiana Senate race, we are moving this race from a “Toss-Up” to “Leans Republican” on the 2014 Senate Map. Republican Rep. Bill Cassidy now has a 64 percent chance of defeating Landrieu, which we view as more likely than not going to have to wait until the runoff.

Here’s why.

First, Landrieu’s support among white voters, something we have warned about all year, is now at levels that make it nearly impossible for her to put together a majority. And that’s true for the jungle primary setting and the runoff, which we will discuss in a moment.

Her precipitous decline among white Democrats and female voters overall is particularly noteworthy. In May, her average support fell in the mid twenties with only 43 percent of white female Democrats saying they would back her in the fall, while 36 percent say they will vote for one of the Republican candidates. Now, just 20 percent of white voters support her reelection. Even if black voters make up 35 percent of the electorate — an unlikely yet not impossible outcome for a midterm — she would still only end up somewhere in the low 40s, curiously where her average overall polling support stands now.

Second, the uncertainty of the jungle primary weighed heavily on our model, particularly with Landrieu posting big fundraising numbers and outspending Cassidy. Contrary to what you frequently hear from TV pundits, our research shows there is little evidence to suggest Landrieu would fare worse in a runoff election with Cassidy. But, considering Republicans are now favored to net at least the six seats needed for a majority, we believe this cycle may be different.

For instance, even if black voters turn out enough in November to keep her in the game, the likely best case scenario for Democrats would be to have control of the Senate decided in December’s runoff. Republicans will be significantly more energized to ensure they net that final seat, leaving Landrieu and her 20-percent white support to get swamped by Cassidy on December 6.

News, Analysis & Commentary

Louisiana Senate Race Rating Hinges On Landrieu’s Risky Strategy – 12/16/2013

Latest Louisiana Senate Poll Spells Trouble For Sen. Mary Landrieu – 5/9/2014

GOP Hammers Mary Landrieu Over Ineffectiveness, Voters Agree – 6/19/2014

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