On this episode of Liberty Never Sleeps, Tom discusses Donald Trump, the Deep State and the rule of law.
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Elizabeth Warren the Lone Top-Tier Candidate on Bottom-Tier Stage
Group of candidates standing on the debate stage with American flags. (Photo: AdobeStock)
The Democratic National Committee (DNC) released the lineup for each of the first prime-time Democratic debates on June 26 and 27. Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren is the lone top-tier candidate appearing on the stage the first night.
The DNC said in May the qualifying 20 candidates were divided into two groups based on polling and randomly assigned to a debate stage. The idea is to prevent top-tier polling candidates from appearing on the same night.
For June 26, the 10 candidates on stage will include: New York Mayor Bill de Blasio, New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker, former Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julián Castro, former Maryland Rep. John Delaney, Hawaii Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, Washington Gov. Jay Inslee, Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar, former Texas Rep. Beto O’Rourke, Ohio Rep. Tim Ryan, and Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren.
For June 27, the 10 candidates on stage will include: Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet, former Vice President Joe Biden, South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg, New York Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, California Sen. Kamala Harris, former Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, California Rep. Eric Swalwell, motivational speaker Marianne Williamson, tech entrepreneur Andrew Yang.
To qualify to participate in the first two scheduled debates — the first hosted by MSNBC and NBC in June, and the second by CNN in July — candidates only needed 1% support in 3 national or early state polls or 65,000 individual donors, including 200 from 20 different states.
The three candidates who did not qualify under the DNC’s criteria include: Montana Governor Steve Bullock, Massachusetts Rep. Seth Moulton and Florida, Mayor Wayne Messam.
But for the debates in September, the DNC tightened the criteria. The announcement, which came without forewarning, is meant to winnow down the crowded field following the first two debates.
To claim a lectern, a candidate must be garnering 2% support in four national or early voting state polls. They must also have 130,000 unique donors to their campaign, including 400 unique donors from at least 20 states.
The new standards favor candidates with either large grassroots support, such as the 2016 runner-up Bernie Sanders, and media establishment support, such as Joe Biden. It closes the establishment lane and is likely to setup a split of support among the activist, more progressive vote.
That’s by design.
It is intended to give voters the perception the DNC is trying to atone for 2016. The anti-secrecy group WikiLeaks released thousands of emails proving the party and Corporate Big Media worked together to handicap the primary for Hillary Clinton.
Key with business words and rig equipment graphic icons relative to the oil and gas industry. (Photo: PPD/AdobeStock/JEGAS RA)
The Baker Hughes (BHI) North America Rig Count decreased by 2 rigs for the week ending June 14, as gains in Canada were marginally offset by losses in the United States.
Rigs classified as drilling for oil and in operation fell by 1 in the U.S. to 788, which is 75 rigs less than one year ago. Rigs classified as drilling for gas declined by 5 to 181, and are still 13 fewer than one year ago.
Rigs in Canada classified as drilling for oil rose 10 to 69, which is 18 less than the 87 rigs in operation one year ago. Rigs classified as drilling for gas fell by 6 to 38, which is now 14 less than the 52 in operation one year ago.
The Gulf of Mexico, which is a subset of the U.S. total, was up by 1 rig in operation to 24 rigs.
Baker Hughes Rig Count
June 7
June 14
North America
1078
1076
U.S.
975
969
Gulf of Mexico
23
24
Canada
103
107
The Baker Hughes North America Rig Count tracks changes in the number of active operating oil and gas rigs on a weekly basis. Active rigs are essential for exploration and development.
The United States and Canada are separate components, and a separate count for the Gulf of Mexico is given as a subset of the U.S. total. The count includes only rigs that are significant users of oilfield services and supplies.
Employees have short meeting in the warehouse to check business inventory levels of goods. First in first out. (Photo: AdobeStock)
Business inventories were estimated at $2,029.8 billion, up 0.5% (±0.1%) from March and 5.3% (±0.5%) from April 2018. The figure from the Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Survey met the consensus forecast.
Indicators
Prior
Consensus Forecast
Forecast Range
Actual
Inventories – M/M ∆
0.0%
0.5%
0.2% — 0.6%
0.5%
The build in business inventories will be a big boost to second-quarter (Q2) 2019 gross domestic product (GDP). All figures are adjusted for seasonal variations but not for price changes.
Sales
Trade sales and manufacturers’ shipments for April were estimated at $1,462.0 billion, down 0.2% (±0.2%) from March 2019. But that’s up 2.8% (±0.3%) from April 2018.
Inventories/Sales Ratio
The total business inventories/sales ratio at the end of April was 1.39. The April 2018 ratio was 1.36.
Survey of Consumers Posts Record Low long-Term Inflation Rates, Record High Tariff Mentions
Sale, consumerism and people concept – happy family with child and shopping cart buying food at grocery store or supermarket. (Photo: PPD/AdobeStock/Syda Productions)
The Survey of Consumers preliminary reading on consumer sentiment eased from 100.0 in May to 97.9 in June. The index found the lowest rate for long-term inflation expected in its 40-year history, as well as a record-high for spontaneous unfavorable references to tariffs.
Indicator
Prior Final
Consensus Forecast
Forecast Range
Prelim
Consumer Sentiment Index
100.0
98.4
96.7 to 101.0
97.9
Current Economic Conditions
110.0
112.5
Index of Consumer Expectations
93.5
88.6
The consensus forecast was expecting the index to pull back in June to 98.4.
In early June, consumer sentiment reversed the May gain due to tariffs as well as slowing gains in employment. Some of the decline was due to expected tariffs on Mexican imports, which may be reversed in late June, but most of the concern was with the 25% tariffs on nearly half of all Chinese imports. Consumers responded by lowering growth prospects for the national economy, and as a consequence, reduced the expected gains in employment. Consumers anticipated an average long-term inflation rate of just 2.2%, the lowest rate the surveys have recorded since the question was introduced forty years ago. The sole component of the Sentiment Index that improved in early June was buying plans for large household durables. That improvement, however, was due to consumers favoring tariff induced buy-in-advance price rationales. In the past year, spontaneously unfavorable references to tariffs moved in tandem with unaided mentions of buy-in-advance rationales for household durables. Negative mentions of tariffs were spontaneously made by 40% of all consumers in early June, up from 21% in May and the prior high of 35% in July 2018; unaided references to buy-in-advance price rationales were mentioned in early June by 19%, up from 12% in May, and just below the 21% in March 2018 (when Trump first announced tariffs on home appliances). Overall, the data indicate that real personal consumption expenditures will advance by 2.5% in the year ahead.
Surveys of Consumers chief economist, Richard Curtin
Manufacturing industry production concept, depicting factory production on a conveyor belt with factory operational workers in uniform. (Photo: AdobeStock)
The Federal Reserve reported industrial production gained 0.4% after falling 0.4% in May, doubling the consensus forecast. At 109.6% of its 2012 average, total industrial production was 2.0% higher than a year earlier.
Indicator
Prior
Prior Revised
Consensus Forecast
Forecast Range
Actual
Industrial Production – M/M ∆
-0.5%
-0.4%
0.2%
-0.1% — 0.5
0.4%
Manufacturing M/M ∆
-0.5%
0.2%
-0.1% — 0.2%
0.2%
Capacity Utilization Rate
77.9%
78.0%
77.7% — 78.4%
78.1%
The indexes for manufacturing and mining rose 0.2% and 0.1%, respectively. The latter met the consensus forecast. The index for utilities rose 2.1%.
Capacity utilization for the industrial sector rise higher by 0.2% in May to 78.1%. That rate, which is 1.7% below its long-run (1972–2018) average, slightly beat the consensus forecast.
April Retail Sales Revised Higher From -0.2% to +0.3%
Group of friends sitting outdoors with shopping bags; several people holding smartphones and tablets. (Photo: AdobeStock/ OneInchPunch/PPD)
The U.S. Census Bureau reported advance monthly retail sales were $519.0 billion, a gain of 0.5% (±0.5%) from April and 3.2% (±0.7%) above May 2018. Figures are adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes.
Indicator
Prior
Revised
Consensus Forecast
Forecast Range
Actual
Retail Sales – M/M ∆
-0.2%
0.3%
0.7%
0.4% to 0.9%
0.5%
Retail Sales less autos – M/M ∆
0.1%
0.5%
0.4%
0.0% to 0.6%
0.5%
Less Autos & Gas – M/M ∆
-0.2%
0.3%
0.4%
0.1% to 0.5%
0.5%
Control Group – M/M ∆
0.0%
0.4%
0.4%
0.1% to 0.5%
0.5%
Total sales for the quarter from March 2019 through May 2019 were up 3.6% (±0.5%) from the same period a year ago. Retail sales from March 2019 to April 2019 were revised from down 0.2% (±0.5%) to up 0.3% (±0.1%).
Retail trade sales were up 0.5% (±0.5%) from April 2019, and 3.1% (±0.7%) above last year.
Nonstore retailers were up 11.4% (±1.4%) from May 2018, and 1.4% from last month. Sporting goods, hobby, musical instrument, and book stores were down 4.2% (±2.5%) from last year.
Motor vehicle and parts dealers were estimated at $115.39 billion, a gain of 0.7% from last month and 2.5% from $106.227 billion in May 2018.
As People’s Pundit Daily (PPD) previously reported, U.S. light vehicle sales rose 6.2% to a seasonally-adjusted 17.40 million units in May, beating the consensus forecast and reversing the 6.1% decline in April.
Revised unadjusted estimates and adjusted estimates are scheduled for release on June 25, 2019 at 10:00 a.m. EDT.
Graphic concept for Democratic debates, with symbolically red donkeys instead of blue. (Photo: AdobeStock)
The Democratic National Committee (DNC) released the list of 20 candidates who qualified for the first prime-time Democratic debates on June 26 and 27.
There were 23 candidates vying for the Democratic nomination and a spot on the first debate stage in Miami, Florida. But there were only 20 total spots available and 10 lecterns for each of the two nights.
The 20 candidates who qualified under the DNC’s criteria include: Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet, former Vice President Joe Biden, New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker, South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg, former Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julián Castro, New York Mayor Bill de Blasio, former Maryland Rep. John Delaney, Hawaii Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, New York Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, California Sen. Kamala Harris, former Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper, Washington Gov. Jay Inslee, Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar, former Texas Rep. Beto O’Rourke, Ohio Rep. Tim Ryan, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, California Rep. Eric Swalwell, Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, motivational speaker Marianne Williamson and tech entrepreneur Andrew Yang.
The DNC said in May the qualifying 20 candidates will be divided into two groups based on polling and randomly assigned to a debate stage. The idea is to prevent top-tier polling candidates from appearing on the same night.
For June 26, the 10 candidates on stage will include: New York Mayor Bill de Blasio, New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker, former Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julián Castro, former Maryland Rep. John Delaney, Hawaii Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, Washington Gov. Jay Inslee, Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar, former Texas Rep. Beto O’Rourke, Ohio Rep. Tim Ryan, and Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren.
For June 27, the 10 candidates on stage will include: Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet, former Vice President Joe Biden, South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg, New York Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, California Sen. Kamala Harris, former Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, California Rep. Eric Swalwell, motivational speaker Marianne Williamson, tech entrepreneur Andrew Yang.
The 3 candidates who did not qualify under the DNC’s criteria include: Montana Gov. Steve Bullock, Massachusetts Congressman Seth Moulton and Florida, Mayor Wayne Messam.
To qualify to participate in the first two debates — the first hosted by MSNBC and NBC in June, the second by CNN in July — candidates only needed 1% support in 3 national or early state polls or 65,000 individual donors, including 200 from 20 different states.
Meanwhile, for the debates in September, the DNC tightened the criteria for candidates to qualify to participate in the debates scheduled for September. The announcement, which came without forewarning, is meant to winnow down the crowded field following the first two debates.
To claim a lectern, a candidate must be garnering 2% support in four national or early voting state polls. They must also have 130,000 unique donors to their campaign, including 400 unique donors from at least 20 states.
The new standards favor candidates with large grassroots support, such as Bernie Sanders, the socialist senator from Vermont and 2016 runner-up. That’s by design and is intended to leave the perception the DNC is trying to atone for 2016.
The anti-secrecy group WikiLeaks released thousands of emails proving the party and Corporate Big Media worked together to handicap the primary against Senator Sanders to aide Hillary Clinton.
Import Fuel Prices Decline After Gaining 25.4% Over Previous 4 Months
Logistics and transportation of import export container cargo ship, cargo plane with working crane bridge in shipyard at sunrise, logistic import export and transport industry background. (Photo: ADobeStock)
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported U.S. imports declined 0.3% on lower fuel costs in May, while export prices fell 0.2%.
Indicator
Prior
Prior Revised
Consensus Forecast
Forecast Range
Actual
Import Prices – M/M ∆
0.2%
0.1%
-0.3%
-0.5% to 0.2%
-0.3%
Import Prices – Y/Y ∆
0.2%
-1.3%
-1.5%
Export Prices – M/M ∆
0.2%
0.1%
0.1%
-0.2% to 0.5%
-0.2%
Export Prices – Y/Y ∆
0.3%
0.0%
-0.7%
This follows an increase of 0.1% for imports during the previous month. Exports rose 0.1% in April, 0.8% in March, and 0.6% in February.
Imports
This is the first monthly decline for imports since a 1.4% decline in December. Fuel prices fell 1.0% in May after rising 25.4% over the previous 4 months.
Exports
This is the first monthly decline for export prices since the index fell 0.6% in January. Exports fell 0.7% over the past 12 months, the largest over-the-year decline since the index declined 1.1% in October 2016.
U.S. jobless claims graph on a tablet screen. (Photo: AdobeStock)
The Labor Department reported the advance figure for initial jobless claims for June 8 was 222,000, up 3,000 from the revised previous week and more than the consensus forecast. The 4-week moving average came in at 217,750, up slightly from the revised previous week.
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