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Politics

President Donald Trump delivers remarks to unveil his plan to modernize the immigration system at the White House on May 16, 2019. (Photo: PPD)

President Donald Trump announced the U.S. will impose a 5% tariff on imports from Mexico as a result of record numbers of illegal immigrants crossing the southern border. The President tweeted that the tariffs will “gradually increase” and will remain until the flow stops.

“On June 10th, the United States will impose a 5% Tariff on all goods coming into our Country from Mexico, until such time as illegal migrants coming through Mexico, and into our Country, STOP,” President Trump tweeted. “The Tariff will gradually increase until the Illegal Immigration problem is remedied at which time the Tariffs will be removed.”

“Details from the White House to follow.”

On May 29, 2019, border patrol agents apprehended the largest group of illegal immigrants ever. In total, 1,036 people illegally crossed the border in El Paso around 4:00 am local time.

A statement from the White House — viewable in full below — said the new tariff will increase over time if Mexico continues to allow “hundreds of thousands” of illegal immigrants from Central America to “invade” the U.S. via their country.

The 5% tariff on Mexico will be raised to 10% on July 1, another 15% on August 1, followed by 20% on September 1, and 25% on October 1.

Full White House Statement on Mexico Tariff

As everyone knows, the United States of America has been invaded by hundreds of thousands of people coming through Mexico and entering our country illegally.  This sustained influx of illegal aliens has profound consequences on every aspect of our national life—overwhelming our schools, overcrowding our hospitals, draining our welfare system, and causing untold amounts of crime. Gang members, smugglers, human traffickers, and illegal drugs and narcotics of all kinds are pouring across the Southern Border and directly into our communities.  Thousands of innocent lives are taken every year as a result of this lawless chaos.  It must end NOW!

Mexico’s passive cooperation in allowing this mass incursion constitutes an emergency and extraordinary threat to the national security and economy of the United States.  Mexico has very strong immigration laws and could easily halt the illegal flow of migrants, including by returning them to their home countries. Additionally, Mexico could quickly and easily stop illegal aliens from coming through its southern border with Guatemala.

For decades, the United States has suffered the severe and dangerous consequences of illegal immigration. Sadly, Mexico has allowed this situation to go on for many years, growing only worse with the passage of time. From a safety, national security, military, economic, and humanitarian standpoint, we cannot allow this grave disaster to continue. The current state of affairs is profoundly unfair to the American taxpayer, who bears the extraordinary financial cost imposed by large-scale illegal migration.  Even worse is the terrible and preventable loss of human life.  Some of the most deadly and vicious gangs on the planet operate just across our border and terrorize innocent communities.

Mexico must step up and help solve this problem. We welcome people who come to the United States legally, but we cannot allow our laws to be broken and our borders to be violated. For years, Mexico has not treated us fairly—but we are now asserting our rights as a sovereign Nation.

To address the emergency at the Southern Border, I am invoking the authorities granted to me by the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. Accordingly, starting on June 10, 2019, the United States will impose a 5 percent Tariff on all goods imported from Mexico. If the illegal migration crisis is alleviated through effective actions taken by Mexico, to be determined in our sole discretion and judgment, the Tariffs will be removed. If the crisis persists, however, the Tariffs will be raised to 10 percent on July 1, 2019. Similarly, if Mexico still has not taken action to dramatically reduce or eliminate the number of illegal aliens crossing its territory into the United States, Tariffs will be increased to 15 percent on August 1, 2019, to 20 percent on September 1, 2019, and to 25 percent on October 1, 2019. Tariffs will permanently remain at the 25 percent level unless and until Mexico substantially stops the illegal inflow of aliens coming through its territory. Workers who come to our country through the legal admissions process, including those working on farms, ranches, and in other businesses, will be allowed easy passage.

If Mexico fails to act, Tariffs will remain at the high level, and companies located in Mexico may start moving back to the United States to make their products and goods. Companies that relocate to the United States will not pay the Tariffs or be affected in any way.

Over the years, Mexico has made massive amounts of money in its dealings with the United States, and this includes the tremendous number of jobs leaving our country.

Should Mexico choose not to cooperate on reducing unlawful migration, the sustained imposition of Tariffs will produce a massive return of jobs back to American cities and towns. Remember, our great country has been the “piggy bank” from which everybody wants only to TAKE. The difference is that now we are firmly and forcefully standing up for America’s interests.

We have confidence that Mexico can and will act swiftly to help the United States stop this long-term, dangerous, and deeply unfair problem.  The United States has been very good to Mexico for many years. We are now asking that Mexico immediately do its fair share to stop the use of its territory as a conduit for illegal immigration into our country.

The cartels and coyotes are having a greater and greater impact on the Mexican side of our Southern Border.  This is a dire threat that must be decisively eliminated. Billions of dollars are made, and countless lives are ruined, by these ruthless and merciless criminal organizations.  Mexico must bring law and order to its side of the border.

Democrats in Congress are fully aware of this horrible situation and yet refuse to help in any way, shape, or form.  This is a total dereliction of duty.  The migrant crisis is a calamity that must now be solved—and can easily be solved—in Congress. Our broken asylum laws, court system, catch-and-release, visa lottery, chain migration, and many other loopholes can all be promptly corrected. When that happens, the measures being announced today can be more readily reduced or removed.

The United States is a great country that can no longer be exploited due to its foolish and irresponsible immigration laws. For the sake of our people, and for the sake of our future, these horrendous laws must be changed now.

At the same time, Mexico cannot allow hundreds of thousands of people to pour over its land and into our country—violating the sovereign territory of the United States. If Mexico does not take decisive measures, it will come at a significant price.

We therefore look forward to, and appreciate, the swift and effective actions that we hope Mexico will immediately install.

As President of the United States, my highest duty is the defense of the country and its citizens. A nation without borders is not a nation at all.  I will not stand by and allow our sovereignty to be eroded, our laws to be trampled, or our borders to be disrespected anymore.

President Trump announced the U.S. will impose

Video

On Liberty Never Sleeps, Tom talks about the rancor and division in society revolving around the Trump presidency and the statement by Robert Mueller.

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On Liberty Never Sleeps, Tom talks about

Economy

An exchange showing one hand giving cash to the another for new house and keys, a vector illustration for new home sales. (Photo: AdobeStock)
An exchange showing one hand giving cash to the another for new house and keys, a vector illustration for new home sales. (Photo: AdobeStock)

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) said the Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) dipped 1.5% to 104.3 in April, missing the consensus forecast after a rebound the previous month.

PriorPrior RevisedConsensusForecast RangeActual
Pending Home Sales Index – M/M3.8%3.9%0.5%-1.8% to 1.5%-1.5%

“Though the latest monthly figure shows a mild decline in contract signings, mortgage applications and consumer confidence have been steadily rising,” Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist said. “It’s inevitable for sales to turn higher in a few months.”

The PHSI, a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, had come in at 105.8 in March initially and was revised marginally higher to 105.9. Year-over-year contract signings fell 2.0% for the 16th straight month of annual decreases.

“Home price appreciation has been the strongest on the lower-end as inventory conditions have been consistently tight on homes priced under $250,000,” Mr. Yun added. “Price conditions are soft on the upper-end, especially in high tax states like Connecticut, New York and Illinois.”

The supply of inventory for homes priced under $250,000 came in at 3.3 months in April, and inventory for homes priced at $1 million or higher came in at 8.9 months.

The PHSI in the Northeast fell 1.8% to 88.9 and is now down 2.1% year-over-year. In the Midwest, the index rose 1.3% to 96.8 and is now 2.4% lower than it was in April 2018.

Pending home sales in the South were down 2.5% to an index of 124.0, or 1.8% lower than year-over-year. The index in the West fell 1.8% in April to 93.5 and is now down only 1.5% from a year ago.

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The National Association of Realtors (NAR) said

Economy

Mr Assange, sporting a long white beard and wagging a finger, shouted "UK must resist" as he was carried out in handcuffs by seven men and hauled into a police van.
U.S. jobless claims graph on a tablet screen. (Photo: AdobeStock)

Initial jobless claims came in at a seasonally adjusted 215,000 for the week ending May 25, a gain of 3,000 and meeting the consensus forecast. The 4-week moving average decreased by 3,750 from the revised previous average to 216,750.

PriorPrior RevisedConsensus ForecastForecast RangeActual
Initial Jobless Claims211 K212 K215 K210 K — 218 K215 K
4-Week Moving Average220.25 K210 K — 218 K216.75 K

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate remained unchanged at a very low 1.2% for the week ending May 18.

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending May 18 decreased by 26,000 tp 1,657,000. The 4-week moving average came in at 1,672,500, a decrease of 3,500.

No state was triggered “on” the Extended Benefits program during the week ending May 11.

The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending May 11 were in Alaska (2.2), California (2.0), New Jersey (1.9), Connecticut (1.7), Pennsylvania (1.6), Puerto Rico (1.6), Illinois (1.5), Massachusetts (1.4), Rhode Island (1.4), and Washington (1.4).

The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending May 18 were in Ohio (+4,168), Pennsylvania (+992), Michigan (+850), Texas (+848), and Massachusetts (+678), while the largest decreases were in California (-2,190), Illinois (-1,454), Georgia (-786), Wisconsin (-720), and New York (-677).

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Second Estimate for Q1 2019 GDP Remains Strong at 3.1%

Initial jobless claims came in at a

Economy

Real GDP for Q1 2019 Down Just 0.1%, Beating Consensus Forecast

Gross domestic product (GDP) graphic concept. (Photo: AdobeStock)
Gross domestic product (GDP) graphic concept. (Photo: AdobeStock)

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) second estimate for first quarter (Q1) gross domestic product (GDP) came in at 3.1%, beating the consensus forecast. In Q4, the U.S. economy as measured by real GDP rose 2.2%.

While the advance estimate for Q1 2019 GDP was 3.2%, both readings have beaten their respective consensus forecasts.

PriorConsensus ForecastForecast RangeActual
Real GDP – Q/Q ∆ – SAAR3.2%3.0%2.9% to 3.4%3.1%
Real Consumer Spending – Q/Q ∆ – SAAR1.2%1.2%1.2% to 1.2%1.3%
GDP price index – Q/Q ∆ – SAAR0.9%0.9%0.3% to 1.7%0.8%
GDP core price index – Q/Q ∆ – SAAR1.3%1.3%1.3% to 1.4%1.2%

Real gross domestic income (GDI) rose 1.4% in Q1 2019 juxtaposed to an increase of 0.5% (revised) in Q4 2018.

The average of real GDP and real GDI — which is a supplemental measure of U.S. economic activity that equally weights GDP and GDI — rose 2.2% in Q1 2019 versus an increase of 1.3% in Q4 2018.

Current–dollar GDP gained 3.6%, or $183.7 billion, in Q1 2019 to $21.05 trillion. In Q4 2018, current-dollar GDP rose 4.1%, or by $206.9 billion.

The price index for gross domestic purchases rose 0.7% in Q1 2019 juxtaposed to an increase of 1.7% in Q4 2019. The PCE price index gained 0.4% versus an increase of 1.5% in Q4 2019.

Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index gained 1.0%, compared with 1.8% the prior quarter.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) second

Politics

Mueller: “It Is Important the Office’s Written Work Speaks for Itself”

President Donald Trump, left, delivers his first State of the Union address, right, former FBI director Robert Mueller.
President Donald Trump, left, delivers his first State of the Union address, right, former FBI director Robert Mueller.

Special Counsel Robert Mueller III said at a press conference on Wednesday that it “is important the office’s written work speaks for itself,” appeared to contradict that report and tossed to Congress. The presser, which was his first public statement since the appointment, was highly unusual in that he did not take questions.

“We are formally closing the special counsel’s office and I am resigning from the Department of Justice and returning to private life,” he said. “It is important the office’s written work speaks for itself.”

Mueller noted the report had two parts, the first addressing the question of collusion between Russia and members of the Trump Campaign.

“This volume includes a discussion of the Trump campaign’s response to this activity, as well as our conclusion that there was insufficient evidence to charge a broader conspiracy,” he said, refusing to characterize those findings as an exoneration.

That statement made at the press conference contradicts the written report.

The Special Counsel employed 19 lawyers assisted by a team of roughly 40 FBI agents, intelligence analysts, forensic accountants, and other professional staff. The team issued more than 2,800 subpoenas, executed nearly 500 search warrants, obtained more than 230 orders for communication records, issued almost 50 orders authorizing use of pen registers, made 13 requests to foreign governments for evidence, and interviewed approximately 500 witnesses.

On the allegation of a conspiracy to “collude” with Russia, the report reads as follows:

[T]he investigation did not establish that members of the Trump Campaign conspired or coordinated with the Russian government in its election interference activities.

On obstruction of justice, Mueller sought to contradict Attorney General William Barr, who in Alaska was made aware of the statement and its content. He also stated no determination was made by his office because of the opinion by the Office of Legal Counsel.

It holds a sitting President cannot be indicted.

“We did not however make a determination as to whether the president committed a crime,” he said. “Under longstanding policy, the president cannot be charged with a crime while in office.”

In a meeting on March 5, Special Counsel Mueller told Attorney General Barr that the OLC opinion had no weight on the decision not to charge President Donald Trump with obstruction of justice. But Mueller contradicted that account, as well.

“The special counsel’s office is part of the Department of Justice, and as such, we were bound by that regulation,” Mueller added. “Charging the president with a crime was not an option.”

“It would be unfair to potentially accuse somebody of a crime when there can be no trial.”

Attorney General Barr and now-former Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein held a press conference in April detailing the findings and the determination on obstruction. The nation’s top two cops put aside the OLC opinion to make that determination, which was Mueller’s decision to make.

In his 4-page letter, Attorney General Barr wrote that Special Counsel Mueller “recognized” the lack of evidence President Trump was involved in a conspiracy undercuts any obstruction case. The statute requires a corrupt intent.

As respected legal experts on both sides of the aisle told PPD at the time the issue was raised, obstruction would require proving a corrupt intent on the part of the president.

Mueller ended his statement by declaring he would not speak on this again. House Democrats could issue a subpoena, which is expected.

Robert Mueller III holds a press conference on May 29, 2019. (Photo: Courtesy of the Justice Department)
Robert Mueller III holds a press conference on May 29, 2019. (Photo: Courtesy of the Justice Department)

“I hope and expect this to be the only time that I will speak about this matter,” he said. “Any testimony from this office would not go beyond our report.

“It contains our findings and analysis, and the reasons for the decisions we made. We chose those words carefully, and the work speaks for itself.”

President Trump responded on Twitter, saying “in our Country” a “person is innocent” when there’s “insufficient evidence.”

The White House released an official response following the press conference, stating the “Special Counsel is moving on with his life, and everyone else should do the same.”

The Special Counsel has completed the investigation, closed his office, and has closed the case. Mr. Mueller explicitly said that he has nothing to add beyond the report, and therefore, does not plan to testify before Congress. The report was clear—there was no collusion, no conspiracy—and the Department of Justice confirmed there was no obstruction. Special Counsel Mueller also stated that Attorney General Barr acted in good faith in his handling of the report.

Worth noting, Attorney General Barr recently appointed U.S. Attorney John H. Durham in Connecticut to investigate the origins of and potential wrongdoings in the Russia probe. That investigation will center on and around Mueller’s protégé and friend, James Comey.

President Trump last week also issued a directive authorizing the attorney general to declassify and release documents expected to be damning to those behind the probe.

U.S. Attorney Durham, the 52nd U.S. Attorney for the District of Connecticut, has a long history of serving as a special prosecutor and investigating the wrongdoings of national security officials. That includes the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) and Justice Department (DOJ).

President Trump and Republican lawmakers have long called for the investigation. The entire upper echelon of the FBI and DOJ have been removed, either by firing, prosecution or resignation.

Inspector General Michael Horowitz has also been investigating the Obama Administration’s conduct relating to the genesis of the probe. He referred former and now-fired FBI deputy director Andrew McCabe to the U.S. Attorney in D.C. for criminal prosecution.

Mr. Horowitz said in his testimony before Congress in June 2018 that he was even more concerned by the preliminary findings in the review of the department’s handling of the Russia investigation.

Special Counsel Robert Mueller III said at

Economy

AdobeStock_135014859-Home-Prices-Scale-Flat-1200x630
Graphic concept of a house on a flat scale with currency. (Photo: AdobeStock)

The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index (HPI) reported U.S. house prices rose 1.1% in the first quarter (Q1) 2019. House prices rose 5.1% from Q1 2018 to Q1 2019.

FHFA’s seasonally adjusted monthly index for March was up 0.1% from February. The results largely confirm the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, which was also released Tuesday.

The HPI is calculated using home sales price information from mortgages sold to, or guaranteed by, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

PriorPrior RevisedConsensus ForecastForecast RangeActual
M/M ∆0.3%0.3%0.2% — 0.4%0.1%
Y/Y ∆4.9%5.1%5.0%

Significant Findings (H/T FHFA)

  • Home prices rose in all 50 states and the District of Columbia between the first quarters of 2018 and 2019.  The top five areas in annual appreciation were: 1) Idaho 13.4%; 2) Nevada 10.6%; 3) Utah 8.9%; 4) Tennessee 7.7%; and 5) Georgia 7.5%. The areas showing the smallest annual appreciation were:  1) Maryland 0.5%; 2) Delaware 0.7%; 3) Louisiana 1.0%; 4) Alaska 2.1%; and 5) Wyoming 2.1%.
  • Home prices rose in 95 of the 100 largest metropolitan areas in the U.S. over the last four quarters. Annual price increases were greatest in Boise City, ID, where prices increased by 16.0%. Prices were weakest in Urban Honolulu, HI, where they fell by 4.5%.
  • Of the nine census divisions, the Mountain division experienced the strongest four-quarter appreciation, posting a 7.2% gain between the first quarters of 2018 and 2019 and a 1.7% increase in the first quarter of 2019. Annual house price appreciation was weakest in the Pacific division, where prices rose by 3.7% between the first quarters of 2018 and 2019.

The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House

Economy

Annual Growth in Home Prices Cools to 2.7%

Real estate market with price tags above home properties to illustrate house prices in 3D abstract. (Photo: AdobeStock)
Real estate market with price tags above home properties to illustrate house prices in 3D abstract. (Photo: AdobeStock)

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index for all 9 U.S. census divisions posted a 3.7% annual gain in March, down from 3.9%. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 2.3%, down from 2.5% in the previous month.

The 20-City Composite posted a 2.7% year-over-year gain, down from 3.0% in the previous month. The results mirror the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index (HPI), which was also released Tuesday.

PriorPrior RevisedConsensus ForecastForecast RangeActual
20-city, SA – M/M0.2%0.3%0.2%0.2% — 0.3%0.1 %
20-city, NSA – M/M0.2%0.3%0.3% — 0.5%0.7%
20-city, NSA – Yr/Yr3.0%2.5%2.2% — 3.8%2.7%

“Home price gains continue to slow,” says David M. Blitzer, Managing Director and Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “The patterns seen in the last year or more continue: year-over-year price gains in most cities are consistently shrinking.”

Las Vegas, Phoenix and Tampa led the way reporting the largest annual gains among the 20 cities. Las Vegas posted an 8.2% year-over-year price increase, followed by Phoenix with a 6.1% gain and Tampa at 5.3%.

Four of the 20 cities reported greater price increases in the year ending March 2019 versus the year ending February 2019.

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home

Economy

Consumer confidence 3D gear graphic reporting the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index.
Consumer confidence 3D gear graphic reporting the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index.

The Conference Board consumer confidence shot higher for the second consecutive month, rising 4.9 points from 129.2 in April to 134.1 (1985=100) in May.

PriorPrior RevisedConsensus ForecastForecast RangeActual
Consumer Confidence Index129.2 129.2 129.9 126.8 — 137.2 134.1 
Present Situation Index169.0175.2
Expectations Index102.7106.6

The Present Situation Index – based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions – increased from 169.0 to 175.2.

 “Consumer Confidence posted another gain in May and is now back to levels seen last Fall when the Index was hovering near 18-year highs,” said Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. “The increase in the Present Situation Index was driven primarily by employment gains.”

The Expectations Index – based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business and labor market conditions – rose from 102.7 in April to 106.6 in May.

“Expectations regarding the short-term outlook for business conditions and employment improved, but consumers’ sentiment regarding their income prospects was mixed,” Franco added. “Consumers expect the economy to continue growing at a solid pace in the short-term, and despite weak retail sales in April, these high levels of confidence suggest no significant pullback in consumer spending in the months ahead.”

The percentage stating business conditions were “good” rose marginally from 37.6% to 38.3%, while those saying business conditions are “bad” fell from 11.3% to 10.2%.

Consumers’ views of the labor market were also more upbeat. The percentage of consumers stating jobs are “plentiful” gained from 46.5% to 47.2%, while those claiming jobs are “hard to get” fell from 13.3% to 10.9%.

The short-term outlook in May was more positive, as well.

Consumers expecting business conditions to be better in six months gained from 19.4% to 21.9%, while those expecting business conditions will worsen fell from 9.0% to 8.4%.

On jobs, the percentage expecting more in the months ahead rose from 16.7% to 19.2%, while those expecting fewer jobs fell from 13.2% to 12.5%. On short-term income prospects, 22.6% expect an improvement, up from 21.5%.

But those anticipating a decrease also gained from 6.8% to 8.2%.

The monthly Consumer Confidence Survey is based on a probability-design random sample and is conducted for The Conference Board by Nielsen. The cutoff date for the preliminary results was May 16.

The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index shot

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